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Conference of European StatisticiansSeminar: Impact of the Global Crisis on

Statistical Systems Paris, June 2010

Session 3: Social and household statistics

Organiser: Paul SchreyerOECD Statistics Directorate

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Introduction

Session 3 Invited Papers: Monitoring social change and the task of social

statistics: development in the Netherlands (Paul van der Laan and Wim van Nunspeet, CBS Netherlands)

The Swedish Economy During two Crises (Petter Hällberg and Krister Näsén, Statistics Sweden)

Lessons Derived form the Crisis for Social Statistics (Inna Steinbuka, Eurostat)

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Introducing the papers (1)Van der Laan & van Nunspeet

Background– Three economic stimulus packages in the NLD since Nov

2008 (total of 2% of GDP)– Social stimulus measures (part-time unemployment benefits,

wage subsidies etc) Questions posed by authors

– Has traditional rapid information from social statistics been adequate to monitor effects of crisis and stimulus packages?

– Is more short-term information needed in areas for which low-frequency social information prevails, such as living standards, well-being?

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Introducing the papers (2)Van der Laan & van Nunspeet

Response:– Most data needs could be fulfilled with existing statistics– But some shortcomings became apparent and led to a

quest for:(1) greater detail in some areas (e.g. group of young people, own-account workers)(2) more information on dynamics of income, labour markets etc.: can we follow individuals over time?(3) revisiting the scope of social statistics: are we measuring what really matters to people?

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Introducing the papers (3)Petter Hällberg and Krister Näsén

Comparison of Sweden in 2 crises (early 1990s & current crisis) on the basis of LFS

Interesting conclusion: from a labour market perspective, the current crisis has been less severe than the 1990 crisis

But also interesting demonstration of the usefulness of dynamic data

Consider graph with simple static data on unemployment

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Unemployed per 1000 persons (16-64), Sweden

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Introducing the papers (4)

Interesting, but static data only tells part of the story

For instance, static data provides no information on transition probabilities: how likely is it to become unemployed if one is employed, outside the labour force, a man/woman etc?

Authors show dynamic data

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Example for dynamic data: transition rates to unemployment during 2 crises in

Sweden

On average, lower probability of unemployment now than in early 1990s But not for people over 55 years of age Disaggregated dynamic data tells different story about vulnerability

than static data

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0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

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3.5

1993Q1 2009Q1

Age 16-64

Age 55-64

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Introducing the papers (5)Inna Steinbuka - Eurostat

Deals with crisis-related issues addressed by social statisticians in the European Statistical System

Key European statistics– Quarterly EU LFS– Labour market Principal European Indicators

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Introducing the papers (6)Inna Steinbuka - Eurostat

Generally of good quality but:– Make better use of available data (e.g., analyse impact of crisis

on specific groups of the population)– Improve timeliness and flexibility: a lag of 2 to 3 years for some

annual data (income, poverty social protection) is too long Improving timeliness:

– Better coordination of fieldwork periods in member countries– Sharing tool and processes between countries– Exploit more fully potential of administrative data– Sub-samples for quick key indicators

Extending scope of existing data collections– More info on demand side of labour market

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Common messages

Overall, social statistics did their job during the crises But more detail needed in some areas And shorter lags in other areas Dynamic and panel data are key for many analytical

purposes Scope of social statistics may need revisiting and

expanding, for example to consider subjective data Increase flexibility of data collection and processing

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Questions…Dutch paper The paper mentions changes in the infrastructure of

household survey to increase its flexibility – please provide some more information

The paper advocates a broader scope of social statistics to include also subjective data (feelings, opinions etc.). This is important because citizens will find that their views are recognised and voiced. Is there also a demand from analysts and policy makers for such data?

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Question…Swedish paper

What are the statistical lessons you draw from comparing the two crises – has the present crisis given rise to different statistical challenges from the crisis in the early 1990s?

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Question…Eurostat paper

The paper mentions the idea that well-established short-term surveys such as the LFS function as rapid response tools during a crisis (integration of additional questions e.g. on income). Has this idea been discussed with Member countries – what has been their reaction?

Have any other foreward-looking measures been discussed in the ESS to ensure responsiveness when the next crisis arises, very probably in a different area?

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Thank you for your attention!