1

Evaluation of FTA Drug Abuse Testing ProgramApril 2008

Jerry Powers, FTA Office of Program Management – Safety & Security

2

Evaluation Analysis Opportunities

• Use DAMIS data and external cost measures to develop a cost benefit model

• Compare DAMIS data to SAMIS data to determine safety benefit from the D&A Program

• Raise the bar – provide customer service. Opportunities to use DAMIS to help agencies justify D&A expenditure apart from it just being a regulatory requirement

• Show where to focus efforts/funding - areas for improvement

3

CHARTERProve the Effectiveness of the D&A Program in

Achieving FTA Strategic Goal

• Promoting public safety by eliminating transit-related deaths, injuries, and property damage

USE:• Maturing DAMIS data together with:

– Safety Data (SAMIS/NTD)– Audits/Technical assistance experience and data– Other Industry and Government D&A measures – Creative analysis

4

New Measures of Cost and Safety BenefitsMoney, Lives & Mayhem

• Show cost saving to Transit Industry due to elimination or mitigation of D&A using employees

• Second chance programs have significant cost benefit to industry

• Audits are having a positive effect in terms of safety benefits and cost savings

• Use baseline rate (1995 or 1996) and subsequent improvement to prove reduction in accidents, fatalities and injuries

Safety Benefit

Cost Benefit

5

Outline

• Concept and Measures• FTA and Testing Costs• Benefits

– Mitigation of Drug & Alcohol positives• Pre-employment• Random• Reasonable Suspicion• Refusals• Post-Accident• Deterrent Effect

– Safety– Audits– Second Chance Programs

6

D&A Evaluation Concept

DAMISData

Other Industry and Government

D&A Cost Measures

I. COST BENEFIT II. SAFETY BENEFIT

Merge these baselines into

cost benefit spreadsheet

Of D&A Program

NTD S&S DataDAMIS

Data

NTD S&S Data

Baseline Baseline

Analysis Analysis

Merge these baselines to show D&A

contributing to accident

avoidance

Other Industry and Government

D&A Cost Measures

NTD S&S DataDAMIS

Data

NTD S&S DataDAMIS

Data

7

Industry and Government D&A Cost Measures

Source Drug Use at Workplace

SAMHSA

on positive drug

• Overall positive rate trend: 17.5% in ’85; 7.7% in ’97; 8.2% in ‘04

• 10.6% of Transportation/Material Moving workers are current drug or heavy alcohol users• Full-time workers, age 18 to 49 reporting workplace drug testing

– Post accident rate: 22% in ’94; 29% in ’97;

– Random rate: 20% in ’94; 25% in ’97; 30% in ‘04

– At hiring rate: 35% in ’94; 39% in ’97; 44% in ’04

OSHA

on safety and health

• 47% of all industrial accidents in US related to drug & alcohol

• Drug users filed five times more worker’s compensation claims

• Drug users utilized 300% more medical benefits

• Drug users had 2 to 3 times more absenteeism

Stealth Tec

on rate and cost

• 10% employees are substance abusers

• It costs business $10,000 a year for each abuser on payroll

• It costs $7,000 to replace a worker

Canadian research • 8% positive in trucking industry

• 1992 Canada drug use costs 1.37B, or 0.2% of GDP

National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA)

• Economic cost of Drug and Alcohol Abuse in the US is $246 Billion per year• 45% Gov’t, 43% Abusers household, 7% victims, 3% insurance

APBnews •Marijuana and Cocaine are most commonly used drugs

8

• Random Positives are on the decline

•CDL positive rate is higher than other employee categories

DAMIS Baseline

2343223420952021517N =

Trend of Positive Random Drug Test

Percent positive = (No. positive/No. sampled) * 100

19991998199719961995

Pe

rce

nt

po

sitiv

e (

%)

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

.8

Overall Random Positive Rate

0.89%0.96%1.05%

0.89%1.05%1.00%1.07%

1.21%

1.50%

1.73%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Overall Random Positive Rate

1.73%

1.50%

1.21%

1.07%1.00% 0.95%

0.81%

0.89% 0.87%0.80%

0.71%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

9

NTD S&S Baseline

• Transit Industry is getting safer. Incidents, injuries and fatalities are trending down

Transit Fatality Rate (per 100,000,000 Passenger Miles)

0.95

0.87

0.80

0.84

0.92

0.77

0.73 0.74 0.73 0.74

0.70

0.62

0.66

0.560.59

0.56

0.52

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Fatality Rate Linear (Fatality Rate)

10

I. Cost Methodology - Cost Benefit SpreadsheetImpact of Drug and Alcohol Abuse on Transit 1995 1996Gross Domestic Product 1

$7,400,500,000,000 $7,813,200,000,000

Transit as percent of total US Economy 0.168% 0.172%

Transit Gross Product2$12,400,000,000 $13,400,000,000

Percent GDP change 5.58%

Annual Economic Cost of D&A abuse in the US3$287,732,807,925 $303,778,660,210

Annual Potential Societal Economic Cost of D&A abuse (Transit portion) $482,114,292 $520,994,477

FTA Drug and Alcohol Testing Program 1995 1996FTA Total Cost per year - FY2000 $2,200,000 $2,200,000

Total Tests 188,278 275,148

Total Random and Reasonable Suspicion Drug Tests 81,378 109,517

Cost of Tests - from 1999 Rural $66.56 $66.56

Actual Cost of Tests $12,531,784 $18,313,851

Safety Sensitive Employee productivity cost per test - from 1999 rural $6.08 $6.08

Total National Productivity Cost to Agencies $494,371 $665,316

Cost of Drug and Alcohol Program Personnel at Transit Agencies $40.97 $40.97

Total National Administrative Cost to Agencies $7,713,750 $11,272,814

Total Cost $22,939,905 $32,451,980

Pre-employment 1995 1996Pre-employment Drug tests - yields unique safety sensitive applicants 26,379 49,392

Pre-employment Drug and Alcohol tests 36,013 56,460

Pre-employment Positive 791 1,394

Percent of unique applicants with a Drug or Alcohol Pre-employment Positive 3.00% 2.82%Eliminated from Consideration by D&A Program Positive Pre-employment Test (Cumulative 1995-1999) 791 2,185

Total Transit Safety Sensitive Employees 212,496 213,657

Total Transit Employees* 275,000 276,494

Percent of Transit Employees that are safety sensitive 77.3% 77.3%

Current % of Illicit Drug and/or Heavy Alcohol Use among Transportation Workers- 1997 1010.80% 10.80%

Current Illicit Drug and/or Heavy Alcohol Using Safety Sensitive Transit Workers (using 10.8%) 22,950 23,075

Average Annual $ Impact of Each D&A Using Transit Employee $16,233 $17,447

Annual Cost Avoided by Transit Industry due to Eliminating Workers from Consideration as a Result of D&A Program Positive Pre-employment Tests $12,840,148 $38,121,949

Random Baseline Rate 1996Percent Positive (Drug) 1.73% 1.50%

Positives - Total Eliminated or Mitigated in Workforce (Both) 1472 1721

Positives - Eliminated or Mitigated in Workforce (Both Cumulative1995-1999) 1472 3193

Positives - (Drug) Eliminated or Mitigated in Workforce 1390 1620

Total Alcohol Screening Tests 47,816 62,618

Positives - (Alcohol) Eliminated or Mitigated in Workforce 82 101

Percent Positive (Alcohol) 0.17% 0.16%Annual Cost Avoided by Transit Industry due to Eliminating Workers as a Result of D&A Program Positive Random Tests (Cumulative) $23,894,688 $55,708,642

Deterrant EffectEmployees abstaining from using drugs due to the program (current % pos subtracted from baseline) 491

Annual Cost Avoided by Transit Industry due to Workers abstaining due to D&A Program Random Tests $8,573,707

Employees abstaining from using alcohol due to the program (current % pos subtracted from baseline) 2

Annual Cost Avoided by Transit Industry due to Workers abstaining due to Random Tests (Alcohol) $31,035

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005$10,128,000,000,000 $10,469,600,000,000 $10,960,800,000,000 $11,685,900,000,000 $12,421,900,000,000

0.149% 0.150% 0.147% 0.151% 0.140%

$15,100,000,000 $15,700,000,000 $16,100,000,000 $17,600,000,000 $17,400,000,000

3.17% 3.37% 4.69% 6.62% 6.30%

$393,778,512,083 $407,059,983,225 $426,157,930,019 $454,349,952,049 $482,965,768,093

$587,090,791 $610,418,902 $625,970,976 $684,291,253 $676,515,216

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005$2,200,000 $2,200,000 $2,200,000 $2,200,000 $2,200,000

301,514 304,458 296,172 310,939 309,190

129,167 132,744 135,820 141,510 140,479

$66.56 $66.56 $66.56 $66.56 $66.56

$20,068,772 $20,264,724 $19,713,208 $20,696,100 $20,579,686

$6.08 $6.08 $6.08 $6.08 $6.08

$784,690 $806,420 $825,107 $859,673 $853,410

$40.97 $40.97 $40.97 $40.97 $40.97

$12,353,029 $12,473,644 $12,134,167 $12,739,171 $12,667,514

$35,406,490 $35,744,789 $34,872,482 $36,494,944 $36,300,611

2001 2002 2003 2004 200573,362 68,240 65,685 71,689 76,918

83,530 82,891 75,356 82,079 87,276

2,153 1,992 1,570 1,664 1,698

2.93% 2.92% 2.39% 2.32% 2.21%

11,201 13,193 14,763 16,427 18,125

259,122 261,327 255,061 261,236 260,045

328,002 326,659 315,565 316,194 323,108

79.0% 80.0% 80.8% 82.6% 80.5%

10.80% 10.60% 10.60% 10.60% 10.60%

27,985 27,701 27,036 27,691 27,565

$16,573 $17,629 $18,714 $20,417 $19,753

$185,635,836 $232,579,291 $276,270,251 $335,382,004 $358,015,647

2001 2002 2003 2004 20050.81% 0.89% 0.87% 0.80% 0.71%

1094 1216 1207 1157 1027

9266 10482 11689 12846 13873

1035 1171 1170 1122 991

43,667 45,146 42,306 43,452 40,522

59 45 37 35 36

0.14% 0.10% 0.09% 0.08% 0.09%

$153,566,794 $184,787,094 $218,744,359 $262,270,483 $274,027,646

2384 2195 2194 2429 2652

$39,509,100 $38,698,225 $41,048,946 $49,601,804 $52,392,928

6 13 16 19 16

$99,917 $223,185 $294,284 $379,077 $322,471

11

Cost Methodology – Unit of Measurement

• Each D&A using employee costs the Transit Industry and the overall society $15-20K per year:– Health Care Expenditures

• D&A abuse services• Medical consequences

– Productivity Effects• Premature Death• Impaired productivity• Institutionalization, Incarceration, Crime careers and victims

– Other Effects• Crime effects• Vehicle crashes and fire

• D&A Program eliminates or mitigates users at $15-20K per user per year

12

Costs

• Costs have ranged from $22M-$36M per year since 1995

2005FTA Total Cost per Year - FY2001 $2,200,000Total Tests 309,190Total Random and Reasonable Suspicion Drug Tests 140,179Cost per Test - from 1999 Rural $66.56Actual Cost of Tests $20,579,686Safety Sensitive Employee Productivity Cost (per test) $6.08Total National Productivity Cost to Agencies $853,410Cost of Drug & Alcohol Program Personnel at Transit Agencies (per Test) 40.97Total National Administrative Cost to Agencies $12,667,514Total Cost $36,300,611

13

Savings Methodology

• Transit is 0.14% of the US Gross National Product (approximately $17.4 Billion/year in 2005)

• Cost of Drug use and Alcohol misuse to the US economy is $483 Billion per year – NIDA measure indexed

• Transit portion of that cost is $677 Million per year. Safety-sensitive are 80% of transit employees. Thus incur $542 Million of that cost.

• 10.6% of Transportation Workers with drug use and/or alcohol misuse - Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) Survey

• Approximately 260,000 safety-sensitive transit employees

• Thus, ~27,500 incur the $542 Million in annual cost

• $542,000,000/27,500 employees = $19,700 per year per employee in 2005

• Deterring or mitigating those 27,500 employees is the basic savings opportunity

14

Savings Methodology

2002 2003 2004 2005Gross Domestic Product (GDP) $10,469,600,000,000 $10,960,800,000,000 $11,685,900,000,000 $12,421,900,000,000

Transit as a Percent of Total U.S. Economy 0.150% 0.147% 0.151% 0.140%

Transit Gross Product $15,700,000,000 $16,100,000,000 $17,600,000,000 $17,400,000,000

Percent GDP change 3.37% 4.69% 6.62% 6.30%

Annual Economic Cost of U.S. Drug & Alcohol Abuse $407,059,983,225 $426,157,930,019 $454,349,952,049 $482,965,768,093

Annual U.S. Total Societal Economic Cost of Drug & Alcohol Abuse (Transit Portion) $610,418,902 $625,970,976 $684,291,253 $676,515,216

2002 2003 2004 2005Total Transit Safety-Sensitive Employees 261,327 255,061 261,236 260,045

Total Transit Employees 326,659 315,565 316,194 323,108

Percent of Safety-Sensitive Transit Employees 80.0% 80.8% 82.6% 80.5%Percent of Drug Use and/or Alcohol Misuse among Transportation Workers 10.60% 10.60% 10.60% 10.60%Current Drug Using and/or Alcohol Misusing Safety-Sensitive Transit Workers (Extrapolated using 10.6%) 27,701 27,036 27,691 27,565Average Annual Economic Impact of Each Drug Using and/or Alcohol Misusing Transit Employee $17,629 $18,714 $20,417 $19,753

Annual Economic Impact of Each Drug and Alcohol Using Employee

Impact of Drug and Alcohol Abuse on Transit

15

Cost MethodologyPre-employment Savings

• Pre-employment testing - eliminated 18,125 users over the course of the Program. These users would have cost the Transit Industry $358 Million in 2005 (18,125*$19,753 = ~$358,000,000).

Pre-employment2002 2003 2004 2005

Pre-employment Drug Tests - Yields Unique Safety-Sensitive Applicants 68,240 65,685 71,689 76,918

Pre-employment Drug and Alcohol Tests 82,891 75,356 82,079 87,276

Unique Applicants with a Drug or Alcohol Pre-employment Positive 1,992 1,570 1,664 1,698

Pre-employment Positive Rate 2.92% 2.39% 2.32% 2.21%Eliminated from Employment Consideration by Positive Pre-employment Test (Cumulative 1995-2005) 13,193 14,763 16,427 18,125

Annual Societal Economic Cost Avoided by Transit Industry due to Eliminating Users from Employment Consideration as a Result Positive Pre-employment Tests (Using Cumulative Figure) $232,579,291 $276,270,251 $335,382,004 $358,015,647

16

Cost MethodologyRandom Savings

• Random testing - eliminated or mitigated 5701 users over the previous 5 years of the program in 2005. These users would have cost the Transit Industry $112 Million in 2005 (5701*$19,753 = ~$112,000,000).

2002 2003 2004 2005Percent of Random Test Positive (Drug) 0.89% 0.87% 0.80% 0.71%Random Test Positives (Drug & Alcohol) - Users Eliminated or Mitigated from Transit Workforce 1216 1207 1157 1027Random Test Positives (Drug & Alcohol) - Users Eliminated or Mitigated from Workforce (Cumulative 5-year Rolling) 5909 5866 5867 5701

Random Drug Test Positives - Users Eliminated or Mitigated from Workforce 1171 1170 1122 991

Total Alcohol Screens 45,146 42,306 43,452 40,522

Random Alcohol Screen Positives - Eliminated or Mitigated in Workforce 45 37 35 36

Percent of Random Screen Positive (Alcohol) 0.10% 0.09% 0.08% 0.09%

Annual Societal Economic Cost Avoided by Transit Industry due to Eliminating or Mitigating Users as a Result of Positive Random Tests (Using Cumulative Figure) $104,169,714 $109,774,524 $119,783,662 $112,609,501

Random

17

Cost MethodologyPost-Accident, Reasonable Suspicion, and Refusals

• Post Accident positives - eliminated or mitigated 1041 users over previous 5 years in 2005. These users would have cost the Transit Industry $21 Million in 2005.

• Reasonable Suspicion - eliminated or mitigated 601 over previous 5 years in 2005. These users would have cost the Transit Industry $12 Million in 2005.

• Refusals - eliminated 1506 users over previous 5 years in 2005. These users would have cost the Transit Industry $30 Million in 2005.

18

1.73%

1.50%

1.21%

1.07%1.00%

0.95%0.81%

0.89% 0.87%0.80%

0.71%

0.00%

0.40%

0.80%

1.20%

1.60%

2.00%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Deterrent Effect of Random Testing

Year to Year calculation – no cumulative effect

Ran

dom

Pos

itiv

e R

ate

If the positive rate remainedthe same as at the beginning of the program, each year there would be ~2000 more positivesper year

19

Deterrence – Random Program

• Has saved a total of $347 Million 1995-2005

• From $9M to up to $56M per year

Baseline Rates 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Percent of Random Test Positive (Drug) 1.73% 1.50% 1.21% 1.07% 1.00% 0.95% 0.81% 0.89% 0.87% 0.80% 0.71%

Percent of Random Screen Positive (Alcohol) 0.17% 0.16% 0.14% 0.13% 0.09% 0.10% 0.14% 0.10% 0.09% 0.08% 0.09%

Employees Abstaining from Using Drugs due to the Program (Current % Positive Subtracted from Baseline % Positive) N/A 491 1115 1483 1742 1948 2384 2195 2194 2429 2652

Annual Societal Economic Cost Avoided by Transit Industry due to Workers Abstaining because of FTA Random Drug Tests N/A $8,573,707 $20,343,073 $28,656,441 $34,100,832 $31,808,655 $39,509,100 $38,698,225 $41,048,946 $49,601,804 $52,392,928

Employees Abstaining from Misusing Alcohol due to the Program (Current % Positive Subtracted from Baseline % Positive) N/A 22 75 91 184 172 94 188 214 238 215

Annual Societal Economic Cost Avoided by Transit Industry due to Workers Abstaining because of Random Alcohol Screens N/A $380,048 $1,359,427 $1,755,938 $3,605,913 $2,816,154 $1,562,209 $3,308,427 $4,010,991 $4,850,420 $4,245,373

Deterrant Effect

20

Cost Methodology

• Drug and Alcohol Rules Cost Benefit (Regulatory Impact Analysis) called for a $1.39 Billion benefit over 10 years. An average of $139 million/year.

• Real data from the first 11 years blows this figure away

– $3.683 Billion (or $335 million per year average)

It’s Up and…. It’s Good!

Redskins 27Cowboys 14

21

Safety Methodology - D&A Accidents are Comparable with Regular

Accidents in Lethality

• SAMIS shows and .0071 fatalities per Accident (Collision) 1995 – 1998.

• DAMIS shows .0077 fatalities per D&A Accident.

• Thus, D&A has comparable lethality to Overall Safety figures in fatal accidents (8% higher than non-D&A accidents).

• Fatalities are a function of accidents – bad luck when they occur

22

Safety Methodology - Show that D&A Program Saves Lives and Reduces

Injuries

• D&A Program Reduces Accidents and thus, exposure to Injuries and Fatalities

• No way of measuring the D&A related accident rate before the program, so…

• Use 1995 as a baseline

23

Saving Lives: It’s What’s above the Curve

Post-Accident Positive Rate (Drug and Alcohol)Per Incident

Pos

t Acc

iden

t Pos

itiv

e R

ate

1.54%1.64%1.72%1.78%

1.62%1.80%1.72%1.69%

2.11%

2.29%

3.11%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Using 1995 as a baseline, the dark wedge represents: • 1690 Accidents• 13 Fatalities• 1486 Injuries

24

Safety Methodology -Less Accidents = Less Mayhem

• DAMIS showed that 3.1% accidents were D&A related in 1995 (Baseline)

• DAMIS showed that 1.5% accidents were D&A related in 2005 (Improvement)

• If the rate had remained at 3.1%, 1690 more accidents would have resulted from 1996-2005.

• National Transit Database (NTD) Safety & Security module reveals that .0071 fatalities result per accident (collisions, vehicle going off road, and derailments)

• At an overall DAMIS rate of .0077 fatalities per accident, these 817 accidents would be expected to cause 13.02 fatalities.

25

The FTA Drug & Alcohol Testing Program

Drug Positive Rate

1.76%

1.60%

1.27%1.20%

1.14%1.05%

0.89%

1.03%0.96%

0.89%0.79% 0.79% 0.81%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

1.60%

1.80%

2.00%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001* 2002* 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Positive Rate

1. An avoidance of 1,690 accidents that would have produced approximately 13 fatalities and 1486 injuries.

2. The elimination or mitigation through rehabilitation of 29,841 illicit drug users in the transit industry through both testing and deterrence

3.       Productivity benefits and total societal economic cost avoidance of $3.68 billion dollars

The decrease in illicit drug use in the transit industry has resulted in the positive rate dropping from 1.76% to 0.81% resulting in:

26

Training Cost for New Employees

• Transit employee salary – weighted average from 2000 Bureau of Labor Statistics

FY2000 Average Salaries**

BLS CY2000 Average salary

transit safety sensitive workforce

percent of transit workforce

Average transit Safety sensitive salary

Bus Drivers $27,250 37767 15.6% $4,251.04

Subway and Light Rail Operators $41,060 8836 3.6% $1,498.62

Vehicle Ops./Non-Revenue $24,620 123090 50.8% $12,517.77

Track, Switch Repair, facility repair $39,400 20472 8.5% $3,331.75

Bus Mechanic $33,210 26764 11.1% $3,671.44

Rail Car Repair $32,960 15393 6.4% $2,095.69

First Line Supervisors $39,410 8278 3.4% $1,347.56

Transit Police $41,560 1494 0.6% $256.47

TOTAL 242094 $28,970.32

Cost of training a replacement employee $9,656.77

27

Cost Measures - Is Return-to-duty and Follow-up a Benefit or a Burden?

• It is estimated that to train new employee, it costs 1/3rd of an employee’s annual salary

• $1650 per month – D&A Using employee

TrainingCosts for

New Employees

D&A AbusingEmployee

Costs

28

Is Second Chance Policy Beneficial to Industry? YES

•Benefit is almost 5 times more than the cost ($223M saved in training vs. $46M in costs), or for every dollar spent on Second Chance, industry got almost $5 dollars back.

Second Chance ProgramsReturn to Duty and Follow-up

totalsReturn-to-Duty Tests (Both Drugs & Alcohol) 25,624

Follow-up Tests (Both Drugs & Alcohol) 175,247

Positives - Failed Return-to-Duty Tests (Both Drugs & Alcohol) 475

Positives - Failed Follow-up Tests (Both Drugs & Alcohol) 2300

Percent Positives per Return-to-Duty Employee 1995-2005 10.06%

Follow-up tests per RTD employee 1995-2005 6.53

Average Transit Salary - 2000

Savings through the Avoidance of Training Costs $223,254,981

Societal Economic Cost of Employing a Drug User or Alcohol Misuser (2 months or 1/6 of Average Annual Economic Impact of Each Drug & Alcohol Using Transit Employee) $7,571,542

Cost of Additional Testing - Return-to-Duty and Follow-up (assume $70/test because of Urban focus) $14,060,970

Substance Abuse Professional (SAP) Cost (assume $960/ RTD Emp.) $24,599,040

Net (Savings minus Costs) - Second Chance Programs $177,023,429

$28,970.32

29

Cost Measures - Audits

• Expect a hump in Random positive rate after audit as testing gets better – random becomes more random.

• And systems are generally brought into compliance

• Good examples: Los Angeles, San Jose, Santa Fe

OR

• Random rate decreases as agency relaxes after audit

OR

• They go up the year of as agency readies for the audit

30

Audits

• Expected result of Audits - Timeline

Audit

Goes up as result of

better testing(catch more users)

Loweras result of

eliminating abusersand causing abstinence

31

Actual Audit Effect

• Drop in the right of the chart shows that audits are effective in discouraging and eliminating substance abusers

• Audit cost is ~$25K. One user mitigated over one year saves ~$20K

32

Trends: Drug Metabolization Time and Positive Rates shows Actual Drug Choices

• Program would seem to be pushing users away from THC (45 days to leave the system) and towards Cocaine (3 days to leave the system)

• Expect that tests catch actual THC users at a rate 15 times higher than that of actual Cocaine users

– Multiplying Cocaine rate by 15 gives equivalent actual comparable usage rate

• Data shows that Cocaine use is 10 to 12 times higher than THC use

33

Actual Usage Comparison

Positive Random Rate - THC and Cocaine

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

0.70%

0.80%

0.90%

1.00%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

THC Positive Rate Cocaine Positive Rate

Positive Random Rate - Comparable Actual Usage Rate

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

THC Positive Rate Cocaine comparable real rate

If Cocaine was testable out to45 days – the chart would look likeThis.

34

Questions & Answers

Jerry Powers

will be available for

questions

immediately following this presentation

Room 209-210