1 gregory cold water habitats - critfc...dynamism ! but human communities resist dynamism and view...

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Fish, Cold Water Habitats and Climate Resiliency Stan Gregory Oregon State University Independent Scien?fic Advisory Board Future of Our Salmon Conference October 19, 2016

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Page 1: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

Fish,ColdWaterHabitatsandClimateResiliency

StanGregoryOregonStateUniversity

IndependentScien?ficAdvisoryBoardFutureofOurSalmonConference October19,2016

Page 2: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

RecognizethevalueofhealthyandecologicallysustainablefloodplainsintheColumbiaRivermainstemandits

tributariesthatisresilienttoan?cipatedclimatechangeimpacts

Page 3: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

Whatisafloodplain?

Page 4: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred
Page 5: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

Floodplains ! Floods build rivers ! Floodplains are not

land next to rivers ! Floodplains are THE RIVER

Page 6: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

Floodplains and First Foods

! Clean water ! Salmon and lamprey ! Deer ! Cous ! Huckleberry

Page 7: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

Willamette River Basin Fish Communities

! Native Fish 35 species

! Non-Native Fish 32 species

Page 8: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

NumberofSpecies

Portland Eugene

Page 9: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

93%offishcapturedwerena@vespecies

Page 10: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

Mean annual temperature in the Willamette Basin projected through 2100 with

three different climate models

Page 11: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

2000-2016

Page 12: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

“Evaluatetheeffec@venessandfeasibilityofpossibleac@onstomi@gateeffectsofclimatechange,includingselec@vewithdrawalfromcool/coldwaterstoragereservoirstoreducewatertemperaturesorotherac@onstocreateorprotectcoolwaterrefugiainmainstemreachesorreservoirs.”

ColumbiaBasinFishandWildlifeProgramEcosystemFunc@onStrategy

ClimateChangeSub-Strategy

12Source:JohnPalmerUSEPARegion10

Page 13: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

Whereisthecoldwater?

Page 14: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

FloodplainSourcesofColdWaterRefuges

! Groundwater ! Hyporheic exchange ! Tributary confluences

Page 15: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

FloodplainSourcesofColdWaterRefuges

! Groundwater ! Hyporheic exchange ! Tributary confluences

Page 16: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

FloodplainAlcoves

Page 17: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

SideChannels

Page 18: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

FloodplainAlcoves

Two-yearFloodInunda@on

Page 19: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

HyporheicFlowsideview

Page 20: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

100 m

Page 21: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

Cold Water Refuges

!  Those portions of a water body where, or times during the day when, the water temperature is at least 2 degrees Celsius colder than the daily maximum temperature of the adjacent well-mixed flow of the water body.

OAR 340-041-0002(10)

Page 22: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

Beginning in 2010, the Meyer Memorial Trust and OWEB supported a study of thermal patterns of 200 miles of the mainstem Willamette River and more than 100 sloughs,

side channels, and tributary mouths.

Page 23: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred
Page 24: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

SideChannels

25%ofsidechannelsiteswerecolderthanmainstemBUT

Noneofthesidechannelswere>2ºCcolderthanmainstem

Page 25: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

August2016•  175milesofthemainstemWillame]eRiver

Willame]eCrew:BillBoyer,KathrynBoyer

Page 26: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

August2016•  43alcoves

56%ofthealcovesweremorethan2°Ccolderthan

mainstemmaximum

Page 27: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

August2016Portland Eugene

Page 28: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

FishCommuni@es

• Abundanceandnumberofna@vefishspeciesweregreaterthannon-na@vespeciesincoldwaterhabitats.

• Salmonidswere10@mesmoreabundantincoldwateralcovesthaninwarmwateralcoves.

Page 29: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred
Page 30: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred
Page 31: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred
Page 32: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

Mean 14.0⁰C

Page 33: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

Mean 21.8⁰C

Page 34: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

InJulyandAugust,50%ofradiotaggedcu]hroattroutwerelocatedinalcoveswith

coldwaterrefuges.

25%ofradiotaggedtroutwerelocatedadjacenttoalcoveswithcoldwater

refuges.

Page 35: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

TributaryJunc@ons

Page 36: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

TributaryJunc@ons

Two-yearFloodInunda@on

Page 37: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

37

ColumbiaRiveratBonneville(Keeferetal.)

Source:JohnPalmerUSEPARegion10

Page 38: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

SteelheadUseofColdWaterinColumbiaRiver

Source:Keeferetal.ascitedbyJohnPalmerUSEPARegion10

Page 39: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

39

FallChinookRefugeUse

Source:Gonieaetal.2006ascitedbyJohnPalmerUSEPARegion10

Page 40: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

ColumbiaRiverCWRTributaries

40

DataSource:NorWest,USFS

Source:JohnPalmerUSEPARegion10

Page 41: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

Li]leWhiteSalmonCWR

41 Source:JohnPalmerUSEPARegion10

Page 42: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

It’snotjustabouttemperature!

Page 43: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred
Page 44: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

FloodplainAlcoves

3%ofLowFlowChannel

Page 45: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

SideChannels

11%ofLowFlowChannel

Page 46: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

Dynamism

! A fundamental property of rivers is dynamism

Page 47: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred
Page 48: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

Dynamism ! But human communities

resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property.

! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred.

Page 49: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred
Page 50: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

FLOOD CONTROL DAMS AFTER 1950 HAVE REDUCED PEAK FLOOD DISCHARGES OF MAJOR FLOODS BY 30-40%

Page 51: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

FLOOD CONTROL DAMS AFTER 1950 HAVE REDUCED DELIVERY OF SEDIMENT TO MAINSTEM WILLAMETTE RIVER BY 60% Jim O’Connor, USGS

Page 52: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

Pain%ng:CourtesyofAprilWaters,usedwithpermissionwww.aprilwaters.com

Whatarethecharacteris@csofthenewriverofthe21stcentury?

Page 53: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred

Pain%ng:CourtesyofAprilWaters,usedwithpermissionwww.aprilwaters.com

Anewriverisformingandtheoccurrenceofcoldwaterhabitats

willdependonthedynamicsofthechanneland

floodplain.

Page 54: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred
Page 55: 1 Gregory Cold Water Habitats - CRITFC...Dynamism ! But human communities resist dynamism and view rivers as extensions of property. ! Change is undesirable and uncertainty is abhorred