1 investing in russia in 2011/2012: it is never too late

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1 INVESTING IN RUSSIA IN 2011/2012: IT IS NEVER TOO LATE

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Page 1: 1 INVESTING IN RUSSIA IN 2011/2012: IT IS NEVER TOO LATE

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INVESTING IN RUSSIA IN 2011/2012: IT IS NEVER TOO LATE

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1. WHAT RUSSIAN MARKET ACTUALLY IS

2. SBERBANK: RUSSIA’S OLDEST & LARGEST

In this presentation:

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1. WHAT RUSSIAN MARKET ACTUALLY IS

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WHAT RUSSIAN MARKET ACTUALLY IS: by size

Global Equity Market Capitalization, USD bn

MCap % of total

World 54.20 100%USA 16.40 30%UK 3.49 6%Germany 1.64 3%Japan 3.69 7%BRICS 8.31 15% - Brazil 1.46 3% - Russia 0.99 2% - India 1.46 3% - China 3.90 7%- South Africa 0.50 1%Sources: Bloomberg, Sberbank

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WHAT RUSSIAN MARKET ACTUALLY IS: just facts

• local average daily total turnover USD 2.5 bn

• ADRs traded at LSE, NYSE & NASDAQ, daily turnover at USD 1.1 bn

• MCap at USD 986 bn (beginning of May)

• the largest in Eastern Europe by cap

• 73% of total turnover performed at MICEX

• main benchmarks: MICEX (RUB-denom.), RTS (USD-denom.), RTS Standard (RUB-denom.) indices

• MICEX index breakdown: 50% oil & gas (9 issuers), 22% metallurgy and mining (7 issuers), 16%

financials (3 issuers)

• 10 top stocks make up to 80% of turnover and 53% of total MCap

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WHAT RUSSIAN MARKET ACTUALLY IS: still undervalued vs. peers and its pre-crisis self

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WHAT RUSSIAN MARKET ACTUALLY IS: correlations

MICEX Index vs. Brent Crude Px MICEX Index vs. S&P500

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WHAT RUSSIAN MARKET ACTUALLY IS: top 10 equities (80% of daily volume, >50% of MCap)

TOP 10 Russian Equity by liquidity

Daily Trading Turnover, 6

months average, USD mn

MCap as of April, 2011, USD bn

Sberbank 563 72.6Gazprom 545 167Norilsk Nickel 149 48LUKoil 129 52Rosneft 110 86VTB 91 31Sberbank priv. 74 2Severstal 31 17RusHydro 30 20SurgutNefteGaz 27 34% of Total Market 3% 0%Sources: MICEX, Sberbank

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WHAT RUSSIAN MARKET ACTUALLY IS: fixed income• governmental debt market par volume outstanding at USD 84 bn • local corporate debt at USD 117 bn at par (as of late April, 2011)• average issue par amount USD 150 mn, 380 issuers so far• corp.total return index up 12% over 2010, up 3.5% this year (end of May)

• more facts: 3 m USD/RUB NDF yield 3.5-4% • annual CPI within 7-9% range• Russia’s public external debt/GDP at 2.3%, total ext.debt/GDP at 33%

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WHAT RUSSIAN MARKET ACTUALLY IS: fixed income

Basic curves:

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WHAT RUSSIAN MARKET ACTUALLY IS: summary

as of May 16, 2011 Current YTD change

12 mnth change

change vs.

Jun.2007

MICEX Stock Index 1,623 -4.8 27.0 2.3 %USD/RUB nominal rate 27.8 -8.3 -7.4 7.9 %CB RF Currency Basket rate, (EUR+USD)/RUB 33.4 -4.8 -0.2 13.5 %USD/RUB NDF 3m IY 4.1 79 37 36 bpsUSD/RUB NDF 1Y IY 4.7 3 -7 -25 bpsMosPRIME o/n 3.5 42 57 28 bpsMosPRIME 3M 4.1 1 -26 -65 bps

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2. SBERBANK: RUSSIA’S OLDEST & LARGEST

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SBERBANK: Russia’s Oldest & Largest Commercial Bank

• about 50% of national retail deposits, 30% of corporate credit

• 3 times larger by assets than VTB, Russia’s second largest, and 4.5 times larger than GazpromBank,

Russia’s third by size

• a top 100 world bank by assets and capital

• a top 100 world bank by brand value (MBO), ahead of GS, MS and JPM

• MCap at USD 80 bn, comparable to Credit Suisse and SocGen

• 57.6% of equity owned by Central Bank of Russia, 7.58% set to be privatized this year

• SBRF is Russian top equity by liquidity at exchanges

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SBERBANKGlobal Comparison: 20 World ‘Strongest’ Banks

Total Score

1-Tier Capital to Risk

Weighted Assets

Non-Performing Loans, % of

total

Loss Provisions to

Non-Performing

Loans

Total deposits to Total Funding

Costs to Income

1 Oversea-Chinese Banking (Singapore) 11.2 16.3 0.5 120.9 84.1 43.72 Svenska Handelsbanken (Sweden) 13.1 16.5 0.1 332.1 30.0 48.03 National Bank Of Canada 16.3 14.0 0.3 172.4 71.4 65.37 Fifth Third Bancorp (US) 21.0 13.9 2.0 138.2 87.7 62.48 Banco Bradesco (Brazil) 21.4 15.1 0.9 268.3 45.0 71.19 UBS Switzfrland 21.8 17.8 0.1 62.9 48.4 78.513 Credit Suisse Group (Switzerland) 25.2 172.0 0.2 54.6 41.7 74.714 JPMorgan Chase (US) 25.9 12.1 0.8 194.9 54.7 53.615 Standard Chartered (U.K) 26.1 14.0 0.9 55.8 80.2 56.616 Citigroup (US) 26.2 12.9 1.1 192.3 54.5 55.720 Sberbank (Russia) 28.7 11.9 5.2 155.3 88.3 41.9

Bloomberg Markets ranking

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-09/ocbc-world-s-strongest-bank-in-singapore-with-canadians-dominating-ranking.html

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SBERBANK: performance

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SBERBANK: performance

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SBERBANK: financial market client operations

• a top 10 MICEX exchange operator (fx)

• fx operations: >20 currencies (RUB, USD, EUR, AUD, BYR, CAD, CHF, CNY, CZK, DKK, EEK, GBP, JPY, KZT, LTL, LVL, NOK, PLN, SEK, UAH): TOD, TOM, SPOT

• hedging: delivery forwards, NDFs, futures, options

• DCM, ECM

• asset management

• retail brokerage, mutual funds, private pension funds

• expanding corporate investment banking in 2011/2012 via Troika Dialog acquisition (Russia’s oldest investment company and brokerage): services for institutional investors and corporates, more sophisticated products

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SBERBANK: portfolio for Petrogrand

• open in July, 2010, expires July, 2011; base currency: Russian ruble

• conservative portfolio:

max. 15% equity + bonds and cash

municipal and sub-federal bonds only, one year to maturity or less; rated by at least one of the three world agencies; with rating no more than four notches below Russian sovereign;

• active inter-market arbitrage operations (going cash and hard currency and back to papers again)

• as of late May, yields 11% annual return in RUB terms, 22% USD and 8.2% EUR (because of EUR appreciation vs. USD)

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SBERBANK: contacts

Sberbank Of Russia

Treasury & Financial Market Department

Asset Management

19 Vavilova Str., 117997 Moscow, Russia

http://www.sberbank.ru

Sales: +7 (495) 957-5964

Vladimir Zelenov, Irina Finokhina, Svetlana Yashina

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DisclaimerThis report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments or to participate in any trading strategy. Although the information and opinions expressed in this report are believed to be accurate as of this date, no express or implied warranties or representation are being made as to accuracy or completeness. The information and opinions presented have not been tailored to any specific transaction of any third party and are not a detailed analysis of a specific situation of any third party. Our opinions may change without further notice. The information and opinions expressed in this report are not a substitute for an independent assessment of an individual’s investment needs and goals. Opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to the opinions of other units of Sberbank (hereinafter referred to as the Bank) as a result of using different assumptions or criteria or analysis of information for different purposes.

 This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities or the markets or developments mentioned herein are not intended to be complete. Any statements regarding past performance are not necessarily indicative of future performance. The Bank, its affiliates, officers and/or employees and/or related parties may hold interests in or may have performed services for one or more of the companies mentioned in this report and/or may hold such interests and perform or seek to perform such services in the future subject to the Bank’s internal procedures aimed at avoidance of conflict of interest.

 The Bank or any of its affiliates may act or have acted as market-makers in securities or other financial instruments mentioned herein or securities underlying such financial instruments or related to those securities. Furthermore, the Bank may have or have had a relationship with or provide or have provided investment banking, capital markets and/or other financial services to the relevant companies. Employees of the Bank or its affiliates may serve or have served as officers or directors of the relevant companies subject to the Bank’s internal procedures aimed at avoidance of conflict of interest. Neither the Bank nor any of its affiliates accept any liability arising from the use of any of the information or opinions expressed in this report.

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