1 making us industry more competitive: increasing energy efficiency lester b. lave electricity...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Making US Industry More Competitive:Increasing Energy
Efficiency
Lester B. LaveElectricity Industry Center
Carnegie Mellon University
2
USA
3
4
5
6
High #is worst
Mark Levine, Lawrence Berkeley Lab
7
Low #is worst
Mark Levine, Lawrence Berkeley Lab
8
High #is worst
Mark Levine, Lawrence Berkeley Lab
9
High #is worst
Mark Levine, Lawrence Berkeley Lab
10
Low #is worst
Mark Levine, Lawrence Berkeley Lab
11
High #is worst
Mark Levine, Lawrence Berkeley Lab
12
13
McKinsey Analysis:$100 Bills on the Floor?
• McKinsey: Many projects have a negative cost of abating CO2 emissions
• Internal rate of return (IRR) of many energy efficiency projects is > 10%
• This implies that Companies are not making profitable investments – can this be?
• Ignorance, not SOP, don’t have $, don’t disrupt production, no managerial time
14
Economists Vs. McKinsey• Companies make all profitable
investments!
• Consumers don’t – landlord vs. tenant, time horizon, ignorance, etc.
• California spends $700 million/yr to get efficiency increases – payback in 3 years
• Energy efficiency is not easy, simple or cheap – major investment in time & talent
• Need to pay utilities for conservation
15
Per Capita Consumption of Electricity(not including on-site generation)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
kW
h/p
ers
on
United States
California
Per Capita Income in Constant 2000 $1975 2005 % change
US GDP/capita 16,241 31,442 94%Cal GSP/capita 18,760 33,536 79%
New York
16Electricity use per person in California and in the USA
17
Increasing Electricity Efficiency
• In generation:– Lowering heat rates
15,000 to 7,000 BTU/kWh
– Combined heat & power, distributed generation
• In use:– CFL, refrigerators, air
conditioners, etc.– Parasitic loads,
plasma TV– Automatic shutoff
switches
18
Energy intensity (BTU/$) 1850-2006
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
year
BTU
/$
USA Energy Intensity (BTU/GDP) 1850-2006
19
What is Sensible Policy?
• Is 1.1 cars per licensed driver enough?
2002 BTU/GDP BTU/pop GDP/pop
• Denmark 38 148 39
• Austria 55 171 31
• France 63 182 29
• Sweden 72 244 34
• USA 81 333 38