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Market Price Forecasts andPPA Rate Scenarios

Tony Liu

Price Risk Analyst

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Price Forecasts and PPA Rate Scenarios• Required to determine resource options costs, including electricity

market purchases and BCH PPA

• Provide range of prices to assess portfolios in scenario analysis

• Includes:

- Sumas natural gas price forecast

- Mid-C electricity price forecast

- Carbon price forecasts for BC and US

- BCH PPA rate scenarios

• Forecasts and scenarios presented in real $2015

• Need to adjust forecast prices for other adders (e.g. transportation costs, line losses) before portfolio analysis

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Gas Market Price Forecasts

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Gas Market Price Forecasts

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Electricity Market Price Forecasts

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Electricity Market Price Forecasts

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B.C. Carbon Price Forecasts

• The carbon tax started in 2008 at $10/tonne and increased to $30/tonne by 2012.• B.C. has committed to keep the rate at $30/tonne until 2018.

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U.S. PNW Carbon Price Forecasts

• BCH’s low, mid, high regional GHG forecasts, NPCC’s base forecast, and PSE’s low forecast all have zero carbon price until 2035.

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BC Hydro PPA Rate Scenarios

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Next Steps• Monitor market and policy developments and any price forecast

updates by fall 2015

• Determine our base price forecasts and rate scenarios by end of 2015

- Develop HLH and LLH Mid-C price forecasts

- Include transportation/transmission costs, losses

- Translate prices to Canadian dollar units

- Develop market capacity price curves

• Update resource options costs

• Incorporate market prices to cost of new resources in portfolio analysis

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Questions?