1 money and banking foreign exchange & the international monetary system chapters 17, 18 week 11
Post on 22-Dec-2015
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TRANSCRIPT
2
Foreign Exchange Market
• Abbreviation: FOREX
• Over a trillion dollars worth are traded daily.
• Most trading is to finance the purchase of assets
• (e.g., bank deposits), not goods and services.
• OTC (several hundred dealers, mostly banks)
• Wholesale vs. retail
3
Quotes
Euro-dollar quote of $1.2120
The euro is the BASE currency.
The dollar is the TERMS currency.
5
Purchasing Power Parity Theory
A method of calculating exchange rates that attempts to value currencies at rates such that each currency will buy an equal basket of goods.
Creates a balance in trade. When a country has an inflation, its currency depreciates.
6
Other factors affecting exchange rates
• Tariffs and quotas
• Import demand
• Export demand
• Productivity
7
Volatility in forex market not explained by PPPT
Purchasing power changes gradually. Exchange rates change rapidly.
8
Asset Demand Theory
Exchange rates adjust so that expected returns across assets of equal risk are equalized.
So if the expected return on European assets is higher than ones in the U.S. assets, the value of the Euro will appreciate.
In equilibrium all expected returns are equal.
9
Exchange Rate Overshooting
• A change in money supply causes a short-run change in the real interest rate.
• Eventually the real interest rate adjusts back to its original level and the exchange rate goes back as well.
Purchasing power changes slowly.
Most forex trading is not to finance import/export traded.
10
19th Century Gold Standard
1 oz of gold = $20 = £4
£1 = $5
Suppose £1 = $5.25.
What’s the arbitrage opportunity?
Liberty Gold Dollar (1849-1854)
11
Two types of exchange rate regime
Flexible• Exchange rate determined by
supply and demand.• Characterized by volatility.• Creates uncertainty in
conducting international business.
• Changes in value called appreciation and depreciation.
Fixed• Central bank buys and sells
domestic currency at a fixed price.
• The gold standard was a fixed exchange rate regime.
• Bretton Woods was another.• Provides more certainty in the
short run but the system is susceptible to speculative attacks.
• Changes in value called revaluation and devaluation.
12
Bretton Woods Agreement 1944
Established a system of fixed exchange rates.
Major architect of agreement J.M. Keynes called gold a “barbarous relic.”
13
Nixon Closes the Gold Window (1971)
1960’s inflation in USAccumulation of $’s
in ROWGerman CB requests
gold for $’s.Nixon refuses to
honor agreement signaling the beginning of the end of fixed exchange rates.
14
Exchange Rate Interventions
UnsterilizedCB enters into forex
market to influence value of currency.
E.g. Fed buys $ to keep value high.
SterilizedCB enters into forex
market and then conducts OMO to keep money supply constant.
E.g. Fed buys $ in forex market and then conducts expansionary OMO.
15
Effect of Interventions
Evidence shows sterilized interventions have little effect.
Consider, Germany during final years of BW.
Buying dollars, selling DM and then buying DM to prevent inflation.
No matter how many dollars they bought they couldn’t get the exchange rate at BW levels.
17
Common Currency
Advantages
Eliminates costs of exchanging currencies.
Facilitates price comparisons.
Creates a larger market.
Disadvantage
Loss of control over monetary policy
18
Euroland12 Member States of the European
Union are participating in the single currency:
• Belgium• Germany• Greece• Spain• France• Ireland• Italy• Luxembourg• The Netherlands• Austria• Portugal• Finland