1 overview of predictions/monitoring of 2004 hurricanes a presentation to the noaa science advisory...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Overview of Predictions/Monitoring of 2004 Hurricanes
A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board
Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.)NOAA Assistant Administrator for
Weather ServicesMarch 22, 2005
2
Outline
• Purpose
• Issues
• Presentation of Briefing
3
Purpose
• Present an information briefing on the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane season and discuss successes and opportunities for improvement
4
Issues
Opportunities for Improvement
• Improving Intensity Forecasts
• Communicating Uncertainty
• Multi-model Ensembles
(AKA super-ensembles)
5
2004 Hurricane Season Summary
• NOAA's seasonal hurricane outlook issued in May called for 12 to 15 named storms, six to eight hurricanes, and two to four major hurricanes.
• Final season tally: 15 named tropical or subtropical storms with 9 hurricanes including 6 major hurricanes.
• $45B in damages and 60 direct deaths in the U.S.
6
2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season
7
2004 HighlightsFlorida Hurricanes
CharleyCharley FrancesFrances
IvanIvan JeanneJeanne
8
2004 HighlightsInland Flooding from Hurricanes
9
NHC Official Track Error Trend – Atlantic Basin
10
President Bush Visit September 2004
11
Hurricane Supplemental – Funding Summary
OR&F $ in thousands Line Office Comments
Marine Buoys $1,800k NWS Install 7 New Marine Buoys in the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean
Research and Model Improvements
$2,000k NWS, OAR, NESDIS
$1,000 to NWS for Hurricane WRF, $300k to NESDIS for EOS/POES Microwave Data, $700 to OAR Hurricane Intensity Research Per Spend Plan
Facility & Equipment Repairs
$1,200 NMFS, NOS, NWS
$328k for NOS, $344 to NMFS, $528 to NWS NWS funds include $325k for repair and replacement of weather equipment in Caribbean Nations
Habitat Restoration $2,900 NMFS Post storm assessments and restoration per the President’s Supplemental Request
Oyster Bed Restoration, Reseeding, Rehab
$9,000 NMFS Per Congressional Direction to provide $4,321 to Alabama, $1,700 to Florida, $1,545 to Mississippi, $1,421 to Louisiana
Sub-Total OR&F $16,900
PAC
Air Force Radiometer Data Processing
$300k OAR Stepped Frequency Radiometer evaluation and data processing at OAR/HRD, Equipment funded in Air Force Budget
GIV Upgrades $3,500k NMAO G-IV Upgrades as proposed in President’s Supplemental Request
Sub-Total $3,800k
Total $20,700
12
Opportunities for Improvement
• Super-ensembles can produce superior forecast guidance
– FSU Super-ensemble
– GFS
– GFDL
13
2004 Track Guidance
14
Opportunities for Improvement
• Intensity forecasts
• Charley is the example – fast intensification just before landfall
15
NHC Official Intensity Error Trend – Atlantic Basin
16
Opportunities for Improvement
• Communicating Uncertainty– “Tampa, Tampa, Tampa”
• 48-hour track error was 94 miles
• Scope, pace, historical/forecasts, uncertainty of track, warnings/watches, inland/coasts
17
Hurricane Charley
18
Wrap-Up
Great Team-NOAA
Performance!
19
NOAA Coordination & Views
• NOAA-wide effort to improve
20
Desired Outcomes
• Discuss Opportunities for Improvement– Improving Intensity Forecasts– Communicating Uncertainty– Multi-model Ensembles
21
Backup
22
2004 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON STATISTICS
NAME DATESMIN. PRESS
(MB)
MAX. WINDS (MPH)
DIRECTDEATHS (U.S.
& CARIBBEAN)
U.S. ESTIMATED DAMAGE ($ million)
H ALEX 31 JUL - 6 AUG 957 120 1 5
TS BONNIE 3 - 13 AUG 1001 65 3 minor
H CHARLEY 9 - 14 AUG 941 150 15 15000
H DANIELLE 13 - 21 AUG 964 110
TS EARL 13 - 16 AUG 1005 45
H FRANCES 25 AUG - 8 SEP 935 145 8 8900
H GASTON 27 AUG - 1 SEP 985 75 8 130
TS HERMINE 27 - 31 AUG 1002 60
H IVAN 2 - 24 SEP 910 165 92 14200
H JEANNE 13 - 28 SEP 950 120 3000+ 6900
H KARL 16 - 24 SEP 938 145
H LISA 19 SEP - 3 OCT 987 75
TS MATTHEW 8 - 10 OCT 997 45 minor
STS NICOLE 10 - 11 OCT 988 50
TS OTTO 29 NOV - 3 DEC 995 50