1 recipient of james watt gold medal keith tovey: vice president rotary club of norwich district...

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Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal

Keith Tovey: Vice President Rotary Club of NorwichDistrict 1080 Environment Officer

Felixstowe Rotary Club: April 15th 2010

The Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future: A Rotarians Guide - Hard Choices Ahead

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Increasing Occurrence of Drought

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Increasing Occurrence of Flood

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19792003

Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region

• NASA satellite imagery

• في الجليد الصيفالشمالي القطب

المنطقة تغطيةالقطبيه

• الصور ناساالفضاءيه

Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years

في ٪ 20• سنوات 24تخفيض

المناختغير كاب القطبيه الجليديه على 2003 - 1979 اثار

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Is Global Warming natural or man-made?

Natural causes• Earth’s Orbit• Sunspot Activity• Volcanic Eruptions • Etc.

Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960

Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period.

BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

potential contribution to Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (curently

35%)Available now (but is

now running out)

~2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

UK becomes net importer of

gas in 2004

Langeled and Balzand Pipe Lines completed

Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020

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nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 30% (France 80%) - (currently 20% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"

Traditional Coal ~40%- coal could

supply 40 - 50% by 2020

Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS carbon trading will affect

this

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

potential contribution to Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018.

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (curently

35%)Available now (but is now

running out)

~2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Inst

all

ed C

ap

aci

ty (

MW

)

New Build ?

ProjectedActual

Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at

scale required until mid 2020s7

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On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

99


~ 2p


Cost in2020


Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on

average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and

Ipswich

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~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020

Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill,

Norfolk.

Rated capacity 5.5 kW


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Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly

15+ p


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020

Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 400 sq km - But energy needed to make PV takes up

to 10 years to pay back in UK.


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Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p

Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas

50% + available, but research needed in some areas

2.5 - 4


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generate just over 5% of UK

electricity needs.

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

• Compressed gas from methane from waste.

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10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4

Wave/Tidal Stream

100% + ultimately

techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%

4 - 8p


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


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10+ p


2.5 - 4


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020

Wave/Tidal Stream

100% + ultimately


4 - 8p


15


10+ p


2.5 - 4

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Output 78 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only

4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables southSave 40000 tonnes of CO2

Wave/Tidal Stream

100% + ultimately


4 - 8p

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10+ p


2.5 - 4

Wave/TidalStream

100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020

4 - 8p

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


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UK Gas Production and Demand

Import Gap

On 13th Jan 2010: UK Production was only 41%: 14% from storage and 44% imports

Whether we believe in Climate Change or not Energy Security is a critical issue for the UK

How have energy prices varied over the years?

• Prices have been relatively cheap since Deregulation in 1997/8

• Furthermore we should be consuming 13% less gas than in 1960 for heating

• Prices have risen recently now we are no longer self sufficient in Energy

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Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?.

Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?

Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? •then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

•unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult

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Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS

for around 70% of our heating and electricity

imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria

Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

bil

lio

ns

of

kWh

nuclear new nuclear coal

new coal oil renewablesgas medium renewables high renewables

Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation

We need an integrated energy supply which is diverse and secure.

We need to take Energy out of Party Politics.!

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How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake

than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

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Raising Awareness

• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)

• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year.

• Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

上海徐汇区高第一小学

• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

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0

1000

2000

3000

4000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

kWh

in p

erio

d

No of people in household

Electricity Consumption

1 person2 people3 people4 people5 people6 people

• Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual electricity consumption

• For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER or COOKING] can vary by as much as 9 times.

Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar

• Significant savings in money can arise from effective awareness raising

• When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times

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Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project

Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs

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Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic

Photovoltaic cells are expensive, but integration of ideas is needed.

Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year.

The New Feed In Tariff form April 1st will make things more attractive. 41p per unit generated – an extra 3p if exported.

But those who have installed PV will get the benefit from increased payments for electricity by those who have not.

• Which can spread the message• Engage with Schools• Dispel myths• Use simple messages that people understand often monetary

values mean more• Think about our own actions.

– Tumble drying – once a week amounts to £25 a year• Can we car share when going to District Council?

– Four people travelled separately from North Norfolk to District 1080 Assembly. They would have emitted and extra 75kg CO2 extra compared to travelling together at a cost of £30 extra in fuel.

• Energy Security issues will be just as important as Carbon reduction in the UK.

• Energy Security will increasingly affect us in next 10 years• Global warming will increasingly affect our fellow citizens of the

planet in the developing world in the next 10 years• Addressing Energy Security by taking small steps now will also

help with Global Warming• Otherwise the Young will suffer during their life times.• We in Rotary have the resources to work with the Young to

combat the challenges facing us.

Rotary is a Community

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1.33 billion people

0.94 billion people

Raw materials

1.03 billion people

Products: 478 M

tonnes

CO 2 increase in

3 years

Aid

& E

du

cation

The Unbalanced Triangular Trade

Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years

Water issues are equally important.

Each tonne of steel imported from a developing country consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of water

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.”

And Finally

• Engage with the Local Community / Schools?

– To promote awareness

– To Join together to get discounts on sustainable projects

• Share a remote reading meter around your club to help members/local community cut their energy consumption, improve energy security, cut carbon emissions and save money?

• Is there merit in organising a District Workshop on Environmental Issues? e.g.

– raising awareness where the individual can save money?

– Providing a sustainable and energy secure future for our children

– Engaging with the community to protect the environment.

What could Rotary Do?

1 recipient of james watt gold medal keith tovey: vice president rotary club of norwich district...

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