1 recommendations to the governments of belarus, the russian federation and ukrania on environmental...

1

Recommendations to the Governments of

Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukrania

on

environmental monitoring,

remediation and research.

Summary by

Recommendations to the Governments of

Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukrania

on

environmental monitoring,

remediation and research.

Summary by

The Chernobyl ForumVienna International Center; Vienna, Austria; September 6th,

2005

Abel J. González

Autoridad Regulatoria Nuclear; Av. Del Libertador 8250; Buenos Aires; Argentina Autoridad Regulatoria Nuclear; Av. Del Libertador 8250; Buenos Aires; Argentina

+54 1163231306; +54 1163231306; [email protected] [email protected]

Abel J. González

Autoridad Regulatoria Nuclear; Av. Del Libertador 8250; Buenos Aires; Argentina Autoridad Regulatoria Nuclear; Av. Del Libertador 8250; Buenos Aires; Argentina

+54 1163231306; +54 1163231306; [email protected] [email protected]

2

Contamination?Contamination?

3

Significant radionuclides

CAESIUM (WHOLE BODY EXPOSURE)

CAESIUM (WHOLE BODY EXPOSURE)

IODINE (THYROID GLAND)

4

Environmental monitoring and research

Environmental transfer and bioaccumulation of 137Cs

and 90Sr are now well understood

Little need for major new research programmes

Requirement for continued but more limited targeted

monitoring of the environments

Environmental transfer and bioaccumulation of 137Cs

and 90Sr are now well understood

Little need for major new research programmes

Requirement for continued but more limited targeted

monitoring of the environments

5


Long term monitoring of 137Cs and 90Sr) is required to:

(Practical)

To assess levels of human exposure and contamination of

foods to determine the need for remedial actions;

To inform the general public about the radioactive

contamination in food products and its seasonal and annual

variability in natural food products as well as give dietary

advice.


(Practical)

To assess levels of human exposure and contamination of

foods to determine the need for remedial actions;

To inform the general public about the radioactive

contamination in food products and its seasonal and annual

variability in natural food products as well as give dietary

advice.

6



(Scientific)

To determine parameters of long-term transfer of radionuclides

in various ecosystems and different natural conditions to

improve predictive models;

To determine mechanisms of radionuclide behaviour in less

studied ecosystems (e.g., role of fungi in the forest).


(Scientific)

To determine parameters of long-term transfer of radionuclides

in various ecosystems and different natural conditions to

improve predictive models;

To determine mechanisms of radionuclide behaviour in less

studied ecosystems (e.g., role of fungi in the forest).

7

Remediation and countermeasuresRemediation and countermeasures

8

Remediation and countermeasures

Different effective long-term remediation measures

are available,

but their use should be justified and optimized.

The general public should be informed and involved

in the decision-making process.

Different effective long-term remediation measures

are available,

but their use should be justified and optimized.

The general public should be informed and involved

in the decision-making process.

INTERVENTIONINTERVENTIONMAY POSSIBLY BEMAY POSSIBLY BE

JUSTIFIABLEJUSTIFIABLE

INTERVENTIONINTERVENTIONIS NOT LIKELY TO IS NOT LIKELY TO BE JUSTIFIABLEBE JUSTIFIABLE

INTERVENTIONINTERVENTIONALMOST ALWAYS ALMOST ALWAYS

JUSTIFIABLEJUSTIFIABLE

mSv/year

100

10

1

EXTANT EXTANT ANNUAL ANNUAL

DOSEDOSETYPICALLY HIGHTYPICALLY HIGH

AVERAGEAVERAGE

NATURAL BACKGROUND

VERY HIGHVERY HIGH100

10

1

11


Remediation measures on radiocaesium in soil may

be justified in agricultural areas with sandy and

peaty soils where there might be a high transfer from

soil to plants.

Remediation measures on radiocaesium in soil may

be justified in agricultural areas with sandy and

peaty soils where there might be a high transfer from

soil to plants.

12


Efficient regular agricultural countermeasures are:

Radical improvement of pastures and grasslands as well as

draining of wet peaty areas may be an effective remediation

measure

Enhanced application of mineral fertilisers in plant breeding,

application of Prussian Blue to cattle and pre-slaughter clean

feeding accompanied with in-vivo monitoring.

Efficient regular agricultural countermeasures are:

Radical improvement of pastures and grasslands as well as

draining of wet peaty areas may be an effective remediation

measure

Enhanced application of mineral fertilisers in plant breeding,

application of Prussian Blue to cattle and pre-slaughter clean

feeding accompanied with in-vivo monitoring.

13


There are still agricultural areas in the three

countries which are out of use. However this land

can be safely used after appropriate remediation.

There are still agricultural areas in the three

countries which are out of use. However this land

can be safely used after appropriate remediation.

14


Restricting harvesting of wild food products such as

game, berries, mushrooms and fish from ‘closed

lakes’ by the public may still be needed.

Restricting harvesting of wild food products such as

game, berries, mushrooms and fish from ‘closed

lakes’ by the public may still be needed.

15


It is unlikely that any future countermeasures to

protect surface waters will be justifiable.

Restrictions on consumption of fish may remain in a

few closed lakes.

It is unlikely that any future countermeasures to

protect surface waters will be justifiable.

Restrictions on consumption of fish may remain in a

few closed lakes.

16

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800Bq

/kg,

w.w

137Cs activity concentrations in predatory Pike fish from Kiev reservoirs

Codex levelCodex level

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000Bq

/kg,

w.w

.

137Cs activity concentrations in non-predatory Bream fish from Kiev

reservoirs

Codex levelCodex level

18


Particular attention must be given to the production

of milk where 137Cs concentration may exceed action

levels.

Particular attention must be given to the production

of milk where 137Cs concentration may exceed action

levels.

19

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Year

Bq/lPrivate farms

Collective farms

TPL

Codex level

137Cs activity concentration in milk

20

What is the main problem?What is the main problem?

21

…radionuclides

released during the

accident might be

incorporated into

materials, goods,

merchandises,

products…

…radionuclides

released during the

accident might be

incorporated into

materials, goods,

merchandises,

products…

22

…and, in general, into any

“commodity”

of public use.

23

September 2000:

IAEA General Conference, following a request

from Belarus, decided the development of

radiological criteria for

radionuclides in commodities.

September 2000:

IAEA General Conference, following a request

from Belarus, decided the development of

radiological criteria for

radionuclides in commodities.

Board of GovernorsGeneral Conference

GOV/2004/54-GC(48)/8Date: 30 July 2004

General DistributionOriginal: English

For official use only

Item 3(c) of the Board's provisional agenda(GOV/2004/51)Item 13 of the Conference's provisional agenda(GC(48)/1)

Measures to Strengthen International Co-operation in Nuclear, Radiation and Transport Safety and Waste

Management

Radiological Criteria for Radionuclides in Commodities

Report by the Director General

Radionuclides Level (Bq/g)

I-129 0.01

Na-22; Sc-46; Mn-54; Co-56; Co-60; Zn-65; Nb-94; Ru-106; Ag-110m; Sb-125; Cs-134; Cs-137; Eu-152; Eu-154; Ta-182; Bi-207; Th-229; U-232; Pu-238; Pu-239; Pu-240; Pu-242; Pu-244; Am-241; Am-242m; Am-243; Cm-245; Cm-246; Cm-247; Cm-248; Cf-249; Cf-251; Es-254

0.1

C-14; Na-24; Cl-36; Sc-48; V-48; Mn-52; Fe-59; Co-57; Co-58; Se-75; Br-82; Sr-85; Sr-90; Zr-95; Nb-95; Tc-96; Tc-99; Ru-103; Ag-105; Cd-109; Sn-113; Sb-124; Te-123m; Te-132; Cs-136; Ba-140;La-140;Ce-139; Eu-155; Tb-160; Hf-181; Os-185; Ir-190; Ir-192; Tl-204; Bi-206; Th-232 1, U-233; U-235 2; U-238 3 Np-237; Pu-236; Cm-243; Cm-244; Cf-248; Cf-250; Cf-252; Cf-254

1

Be-7; F-18; Cl-38; K-40; K-43; Ca-47; Mn-51; Mn-52m; Mn-56; Fe-52; Co-55; Co-62m; Ni-65; Zn-69m; Ga-72; As-74; As-76; Sr-91; Sr-92; Zr-93; Zr-97; Nb-93m; Nb-97; Nb-98; Mo-90; Mo-93; Mo-99; Mo-101; Tc-97; Ru-97; Ru-105; Cd-115; In-111; In-114m; Sn-125; Sb-122; Te-127m; Te-129m; Te-131m; Te-133; Te-133m; Te-134; I-126; I-130; I-131; I-132; I-133; I-134; I-135; Cs-129; Cs-132; Cs-138; Ba-131; Ce-143; Ce-144; Gd-153; W-181; W-187; Pt-191; Au-198; Hg-203; Tl-200; Tl-202; Pb-203; Po-203; Po-205; Po-207; Ra-225; Pa-230; Pa-233; U-230; U-236; Np-240; Pu-241; Cm-242; Es-254m

10

H-3; S-35; K-42; Ca-45; Sc-47; Cr-51; Mn-53; Co-61; Ni-59; Ni-63; Cu-64; Rb-86; Sr-85m; Sr-87m; Y-91; Y-91m; Y-92; Y-93; Tc-97m; Tc-99m; Rh-105; Pd-109; Ag-111; Cd-115m; In-113m; In-115m; Te-129; Te-131; I-123; I-125; Cs-135; Ce-141; Pr-142; Nd-147; Nd-149; Sm-153; Eu-152m; Gd-159; Dy-166; Ho-166; Er-171; Tm-170; Yb-175; Lu-177; Re-188; Os-191; Os-193; Ir-194; Pt-197m; Au-199; Hg-197; Hg-197m; Tl-201; Ra-227; U-231; U-237; U-239; U-240; Np-239; Pu-234; Pu-235; Pu-237; Bk-249; Cf-253; Es-253; Fm-255

100

Si-31; P-32; P-33; Fe-55; Co-60m; Zn-69; As-73; As-77; Sr-89; Y-90; Tc-96m; Pd-103; Te-125m; Te-127; Cs-131; Cs-134m; Pr-143; Pm-147; Pm-149; Sm-151; Dy-165; Er-169; Tm-171; W-185; Re-186; Os-191m; Pt-193m; Pt-197; At-211; Th-226; Pu-243; Am-242; Cf-246

1000

Co-58m; Ge-71; Rh-103m; Fm-254 10 000

27

Codes Alimentarious levels(incorporated into the BSS as

generic action levels for foodstuffs)

action levels (Bq/kg)

Radionuclides Food destined for general consumption

Milk, infant foods and drinking water

134,137Cs, 103,106Ru, 89Sr 1,000 131I

1,000

90Sr 100 100

241Am, 238,239Pu 10 1

action levels (Bq/kg)

Radionuclides Food destined for general consumption

Milk, infant foods and drinking water

134,137Cs, 103,106Ru, 89Sr 1,000 131I

1,000

90Sr 100 100

241Am, 238,239Pu 10 1

Guideline levels for radionuclides in foods

Radionuclides in foods Guideline Level (Bq/kg)

238Pu, 239Pu, 240Pu, 241Am 1

90Sr, 106Ru, 129I, 131I, 235U 100

35S, 60Co, 89Sr, 103Ru, 134Cs, 137Cs, 144Ce, 192Ir 1000

3H*, 14C, 99Tc 10000

29

Drinking water

The WHO levelsThe WHO levels

30

Environmental aspects of the shelter dismantlement and radioactive waste management

A comprehensive safety and environmental

impact assessment should be performed.

Development of an integrated radioactive waste

management programme for the Shelter.

Strategy for rehabilitation of the Exclusion Zone

Overall plan for the long-term development of

the Exclusion Zone

A comprehensive safety and environmental

impact assessment should be performed.

Development of an integrated radioactive waste

management programme for the Shelter.

Strategy for rehabilitation of the Exclusion Zone

Overall plan for the long-term development of

the Exclusion Zone

31

Epilogue

Preservation of the vast tacit knowledge that

is available on the Chernobyl experience.

What to do?

Preservation of the vast tacit knowledge that

is available on the Chernobyl experience.

What to do?

32…….and patience!!.and patience!!

33

Detectability limits in radioepidemiology

Because radiation is a

weak carcinogen, it

is practically impossible

to detect effects at low doses.

Because radiation is a

weak carcinogen, it

is practically impossible

to detect effects at low doses.

34

Control group““NN” people” people““CC” cancers” cancers““nn” probability of ” probability of ‘natural’ cancer‘natural’ cancer

Exposed group““NN” people” people““EE” cancers” cancers““nn” probability of ” probability of ‘natural’cancer‘natural’cancer‘‘ppDD’ ’ probability of probability of

‘radiation’ cancer‘radiation’ cancer

35

Epidemiological significance

The expected number of cancers in the control group will be:

C = n N

The expected number of cancers in the exposed group will be:

E = n N + pd D N

The expected number of excess cancers will be

E – C

The expected number of cancers in the control group will be:

C = n N

The expected number of cancers in the exposed group will be:

E = n N + pd D N

The expected number of excess cancers will be

E – C

36

E = n N

+ pd D N

Numberof

cancersin

exposedgroup

C=n N

Numberof

cancersin

controlgroup

E-C

Difficult to detect!

37


The standard deviation is

= 2 n N + pd D N

If the excess cancers are to be detected with a statistical

confidence of 95%

E – C > 2

38


Operating algebraically and as n >> pd D,

N > constant / D2

which is the equation giving the number of people, N, needed for detecting excess cancers at dose D.

Operating algebraically and as n >> pd D,

N > constant / D2

which is the equation giving the number of people, N, needed for detecting excess cancers at dose D.

(Constant = 8 n / pd2)

39

10 2

10 1

10-0

10-1 10 2 10 4 10 6 10 8

Dose (mSv)Dose (mSv)

PeoplePeople

Region of detectability

Region of undetectability

1 mSv1 mSv

10 9 p.

DETECTABILITY OF SOLID CANCERS

40

10 2

10 1

10-0

10-1 10 2 10 4 10 6 10 8


PeoplePeople



Chernobyl doses Chernobyl doses ~50 mSv~50 mSv

PopulationPopulation~270 000~270 000

DETECTABILITY OF SOLID CANCERS

41


thyroid cancer in children

Dosis, D (mGy) ~ Number of people, N

1 10.000

10 1.000

100 100

42

Thyroid cancer in children in Belarus

Thyroid cancer in children in BelarusThyroid cancer in children in BelarusThyroid cancer in children in Belarus

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Nu

mb

er

of

cases

Total

0-4

5-9

10-14

43

10 2

10 1

10-0

10-1 10 2 10 4 10 6 10 8


PeoplePeople



~10 mSv~10 mSv

DETECTABILITY OF HEREDITABLE EFFECTS

~10~1010 10 people!people!

44

10 2

10 1

10-0

10-1 10 2 10 4 10 6 10 8


PeoplePeople


0.001 Sv0.001 Sv

100.000.000 p.100.000.000 p.

100.000 man Sv x 5%/Sv = 5000 deaths!100.000 man Sv x 5%/Sv = 5000 deaths!

45

10 2

10 1

10-0

10-1 10 2 10 4 10 6 10 8


PeoplePeople

Region of detectabilityRegion of detectability

Do the effects in this region actually occur?Epistemological Limitation

Epistemological Limitation

No grounds of knowledge!!

No grounds of knowledge!!

46…….and patience!!.and patience!!

47

Responding to this demand, three years ago, the

IAEA General Conference requested that

commodities requiring regulatory control shall be

identified.

Responding to this demand, three years ago, the

IAEA General Conference requested that

commodities requiring regulatory control shall be

identified.

48

If it is satisfied that the doses of

radiation incurred will be trivial,

the competent authority should

waive the requirements of …… :

If it is satisfied that the doses of

radiation incurred will be trivial,

the competent authority should

waive the requirements of …… :

…operations which do not

involve the use of radioactive

substances at concentrations

exceeding 0.002 Ci/g (74 Bq/g)

or solid natural radioactive

substances at concen-trations

exceeding 0.01 Ci/g (370 Bq/g).

…operations which do not

involve the use of radioactive

substances at concentrations

exceeding 0.002 Ci/g (74 Bq/g)

or solid natural radioactive

substances at concen-trations

exceeding 0.01 Ci/g (370 Bq/g).

49

I.e., it can be construed that the first BSS applied to

controllable operations involving radioactive

substances at concentrations exceeding

some 10’s of Bq/g!some 10’s of Bq/g!

1000 miles

51

2001 – 2004: Extensive discussion!

foodstuffs and water

WHO and FAO


foodstuffs and water

WHO and FAO

52


foodstuffs and water other materials

WHO and FAO IAEA: DS161


foodstuffs and water other materials

WHO and FAO IAEA: DS161

53

Epidemiological significance Solid Cancers

N > ~109 / D2N > ~109 / D2

Dosis, D (mSv) ~ Number of people, N

1 >1.000.000.000

10 >10.000.000

100 >100.000

1000 >1.000

54

Not surprisingly,

people (and their representatives)

have been asking a simple basic question to the

radiation protection community:

What is the radioactivity level below which the

commodities are safe to be used without any control?

Not surprisingly,

people (and their representatives)

have been asking a simple basic question to the

radiation protection community:

What is the radioactivity level below which the

commodities are safe to be used without any control?

55

Commodities carry

becquerels (or curies)

NOT

sieverts (or rems)

Therefore, levels should be derived in terms of Bq/kg

rather than in terms of hypothetical individual doses.

Therefore, levels should be derived in terms of Bq/kg

rather than in terms of hypothetical individual doses.

56

Our problem is

to provide a rational, logical and

sustainable answer to these simple

questions!

Our problem is

to provide a rational, logical and

sustainable answer to these simple

questions!

57

10 2

10 1

10-0

10-1 10 2 10 4 10 6 10 8


PeoplePeople



Liquidators’ av.doses Liquidators’ av.doses ~10 mSv~10 mSv

Chernobyl liquidators liquidators ~160 000~160 000

DETECTABILITY OF LEUKÆMIAS

58

Relatively low doses:

Exposure of residents affected by Chernobyl

Average doses

(1986-1995)

External Internal Total

Russian Federation 4 2.5 6.5 mSv

Belarus 5 3 8 mSv

Ukraine 5 6 11 mSv

Average (10 years) 5 3 8 mSv

(lifetime) 9 4 13 mSv

Average doses

(1986-1995)

External Internal Total

Russian Federation 4 2.5 6.5 mSv

Belarus 5 3 8 mSv

Ukraine 5 6 11 mSv

Average (10 years) 5 3 8 mSv

(lifetime) 9 4 13 mSv

1 recommendations to the governments of belarus, the russian federation and ukrania on environmental...

Documents

environmental monitoring

research long term monitoring

environmental transfer

limited targeted monitoring

natural food products

general public

contamination of foods

radioactive contamination