1 research and teaching plan presentation to: department of information and decision sciences...
TRANSCRIPT
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RESEARCH AND TEACHING PLAN
Presentation to:
Department of Information and Decision Sciences
College of Business Administration
University of Texas at El Paso
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PRESENTATION OUTLINE
• Describe an “interesting” research project
• Present an overview of current research and teaching
interests/projects
• Discuss my vision for the future
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“Interesting” Research Project:
KABOMKABOMknowledge/activity based operations knowledge/activity based operations
modelingmodeling
WithCarey McCleskey, Edgar Zapata, Russ
Rhodes
Advanced Projects, NASAKennedy Space Center, FL
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Outline for this section
• Introduction• Previous work
• KABOM• Project Extensions
• Project Status
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Introductiondo you know?
• The cost per space shuttle flight?
• During the design of shuttle, the designers expected/planned the time between flights to be:
a) < 1 weekb) < 1 monthc) 1 - 2 monthsd) 3 - 4 monthse) > 5 months
• From the above, what is the current average time between flights?
• What is the shuttle’s design reliability?
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Introductionthe design to operations gap
• A view of operations by the designers
• Operations at the Orbiter Processing Facility (OPF) today.
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Introductionthe causes
• Space vehicles are complex systems• Operations was not a primary concern of
designers– Design process focused on the rocket equation– Primary operations concern: how do we use existing
facilities– Once the vehicle worked - up to Kennedy to make it
work.
• Minimizing cost was an objective (NASA’s budget has had its ups and downs), BUT it was a “myopic” view, minimize development cost or minimize manufacturing cost, seldom a total cost view.
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Introductionthings are changing• NASA is changing.
– Moving from a service provider to a support and monitoring entity
• Space business environment is changing– Commercial launch capabilities have increased.
• Facilities in old USSR, Guyana, Brazil, China, and even sea launches
– Need for launches has increased, exceeding capacity
– Interest in other commercial uses of space• Hilton Space Hotels?- spacehotels
– The X Prize
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Outline for this section
• Introduction• Previous work
• KABOM• Project Extensions
• Project Status
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Previous workvision spaceport
• Team approach > ground operations modeling– Includes NASA KSC and Ames, Lockheed Martin,
Boeing, SIAC, and other related government, university, and private organizations.
– My role: NASA fellow for the summers of 1998 and 1999.
• Objectives:– Develop models to asses new designs: spaceport
operations - life cycle costs– Educate vehicle designers on spaceport operations– Connect model to design/development models and
manufacturing models
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Previous workvision spaceport• First approach
– Knowledge based utility functions– Mapped vehicle inputs to spaceport
functions. • Functions provided sense of direction: was the design
an improvement over the baseline for a function. Cost and times derived from the deviation
• Developed a tool in Excel/VB: AATe. – NASA Copyright. – Used in several studies at Marshal and
Langley.– Modeling approach was applied in a second
tool - application developed by CCT.
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F(Mc)=i1.I, j1..Ji (Xij*SiMc/(y =1..ISyMc))
I # of design/assessment questions Ji # of options for design question iXij Value of option j for design question i (0 - 1)SiM Strength of relation, design/assessment question i to McF(Mc) Score for spaceport function M and characteristic c
$ or CT
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Umin
Umax
Previous workvision spaceport
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Outline for this section
• Introduction• Previous work
• KABOM• Project Extensions
• Project Status
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Knowledge/Activity based Operations Modeling
(KABOM)• Objective:
– To asses the operational requirements of a vehicle design. Determine:
• Cost per flight (cost per pound) and Cycle time• Processes and Resources required
– Present to vehicle designers the processes required for operation
– Address limitations of the utility function approach• Dissipate effect an expert will have captures• Difficult to calibrate as inputs increase• Limited representation of reliability effect
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KABOM BasicsOrigins
• Related to ABC models - used in manufacturing and SCM
• Similar to the approach used by Christenson and Komar (1998) to model/ analyze reusable rocket engine operability
• Primarily for online functions (landing, turnaround,..)
• Model is a component of total spaceport analysis model which should capture the other spaceport modules (not in flow).– This is a subset of an LCC model that includes
development, manufacturing, and operations
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KABOM BasicsThe RLV design
• The model characterizes a RLV architecture/concept by I design variables– I represents a particular option of the
vehicle, for example ceramic times, ultra high density ceramics, SOFI.
– The binary variable di is used to represent the inclusion of a design option; di = 1 if the design option is included in the design and di = 0 if not.
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KABOM BasicsThe RLV design
• This model characterizes a RLV architecture/concept by J vehicle characteristics/ operational drivers. – The vehicle characteristics J represents
measures that will drive operational cost or time, for example the number of fuel cells or the area covered by a type of thermal protection.
– The variable qj is used to represent the quantify of an operational driver, qj > 0 if that operational driver exists in the design and qj = 0 if not.
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KABOM BasicsThe Activities
• There are A spaceport activities.– Activities relate to one or more design variables.
– The binary variable sa represents the inclusion of that activity in the activity set for that design; sa = 1 if that activity is part of the activity set and sa = 0 if it is not.
– The determination of the activity set is determined by knowledge based equations. I.E.:s3 = 1 , if d1 + d12 = 2
0, otherwises7 = 1 , if d11 = 0 and d123 = 1 or if q56 >
1000, otherwise
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KABOM BasicsActivity Characterization
• Three characteristics for each activity: activity time, activity cost, and need percentage.– The process time for an activity a; pa, is
determined by a knowledge based equation. • p1 = UNIF (35, 100) x q13 hours
• p5 = EXPO (3 x q38 ) minutes
• p42 = 50 x q38 minutes
– The cost per activity a; ca, will be characterized in a similar fashion.
• c1 = p1 x $14,000
• c81 = $10,000 + $120 x q39
• c22 = $75,000
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KABOM BasicsActivity Characterization
• Continued:– The need percentage for an activity a; na, is
determined by a knowledge based equation. • n19 = 10% , if e45 = 1
30% , if e46 = 1
100%, otherwise
• n7 = 50% , if q92 < 2,000
100%, otherwise
– From these values, we can determine the expected average time for an activity, E’(pa):
E’(pa) = na x E(pa)
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KABOM BasicsProcess Modeling
• Spaceport process model– All A activities are integrated into a
spaceport process model. – The process model captures precedence
constraints and possible alternative routes.
LAUNCH
LANDING
TRAFFIC CONTROL
TURNAROUND
TERMINAL
ASSEMBLY/INTEGRATION
EXPENDABLEELEMENTS
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KABOM BasicsResources
• The spaceport has R resources– Each resource r has a set r of assigned activities.
– Each resource r has a per unit of capacity fixed operational cost, fcr and one time acquisition cost, acr.
– The capacity for a resource r, xr, is estimated by:
xr. = Round up(F x for all a r [E’(pa)] / T)
F = Round up(D/VC)
where
T = Time of spaceport operation F = Number of flights per year D = Annual demand (lbs.) VC = Vehicle per flight capacity
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KABOM BasicsFleet Size
• The system requires a fleet of Vn vehicles to satisfy annual demand– The process network and average expected
activity times are used to determine the set of activities in the critical path .
Vct = for all a [E’(pa)]
Vfr = T / (Vct + Vot )
Vn = Roundup (F / Vfr)
where Vct = Vehicle ground cycle time Vot = Vehicle
orbit time
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KABOM BasicsArchitecture
User InterfaceActivity Generator
Report Generator
Activity Library
User
Cost Generator
Improvement Agent
Process Model/Simulation
Critical Path/ Resource Capacity Generator (Process Model)
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KABOM BasicsSimulation Model
• Why the use of simulation:– Better representation of a dynamic
environment.– Estimate bottlenecks, resource utilization,
queues, ..., costs (VS Team objective 1).– Provide designers a graphical (animation)
representation of their system at work.. (Team objective 2)
– Allows the evaluation of scenarios. • For example, a version of the model could be
developed where two types of vehicles can be modeled (I.e. Shuttle and Venture Star).
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KABOM BasicsImprovement Agent and Cost
Calculations• Improvement Agent
– Heuristic to improve total performance. • The heuristics will recommend changes to resource
capacity and/or fleet size parameters. Several iterations are conducted (simulation repeated) until cost improvements are not obtained.
• Cost calculations– Activity costs tracked during the simulation
run.– Total costs include activity costs and resource
related costs– Vehicle acquisition costs are included as an
input from the designers.
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Outline for this section
• Introduction• Previous work
• KABOM• Project Extensions
• Project Status
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Project Extensions
• Approach used to develop design analysis tools for manufactured products (an advanced ABC analysis)– Help product designers estimate costs/processes– Evaluate what if scenarios in a design (mfg
processes)– A “real time” version of the model could
estimate the effect of a new product on current system load.
• Order for “customized product” arrives• Tool determines activities, costs, ..• Order is added to current production schedule • Decision on taking the order or how to schedule it
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Outline for this section
• Introduction• Previous work
• KABOM• Project Extensions• Project Status
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Project Status
• A prototype was developed last summer while at KSC
• Student project on a web based version of the AATe
• Grant proposal - excellent evaluations, waiting for funding.
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PRESENTATION OUTLINE
• Describe an “interesting” research project
• Present an overview of current research and
teaching interests/projects
• Discuss my vision for the future
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Overview Of Research/ Teaching Interests And
Projects
• Research– Production Planning– Supply Chain Management– IS/OM/Simulation Interaction– Space operations
• Teaching– Games– Excel applications – Advanced POM courses/ APICS/ ERP
(Future)
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Production Planning Research
• Cellular manufacturing systems– Development of tools and models to plan/schedule
on systems where production resources are organized as cells and products into common families.
– Work with Jeet Gupta from Ball State University– Paper in progress
• Parallel Machine Scheduling with Multiple Criteria– Development of heuristics for difficult multi-criteria
problems in the parallel machine setting.– Work with Jeet Gupta and Kazou Nakatani (FGCU)– Two papers accepted for publication, several in
progress.
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Supply Chain Management Research
• Supplier Decision Making– Evaluation of the role transportation plays on
supplier decision making.– Work with John Tyworth from Penn State
University– One paper accepted for publication
• Supply Chain Simulation– Development of simulation models for supply
chain environments in order to evaluate transportation and scheduling priorities..
– Work with John Tyworth
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Interaction of IS, OM, and simulation
• Supply Chain Management– Development of architecture to support “real time” DM..– Utilizes simulation to investigate “what if” scenarios.– Work with J. Tyworth and K. Nakatani.
• Project Management– Development of architecture to support Web based
project management. – Utilizes simulation to evaluate the CP and effect of “what
if” scenarios.– Prototype developed and tested at NASA.– Work with K. Nakatani.
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OM Games/Exercises
• Development/application of class games to enhance student learning– Beer game from Jacobs web page– In-class exercises after “lecture”.
• QFD - development of a QFD diagram for a business class
• SPC - process simulation
– JIT game with Lego/remote controlled cars (Rokenbok)
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Excel Applications
• Use of Excel for operations analysis– Data analysis/ “real time” behavior graphs– Queue models– Forecasting– Capacity Analysis
• Use of Excel for quantitative methods course– Math Programming– VB front end– “Real world” application development
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PRESENTATION OUTLINE
• Describe an “interesting” research project
• Present an overview of current research and teaching
interests/projects
• Discuss my vision for the future
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My vision of the futureresearch
• Continue research on all four areas– SS: applications of KABOM to manufacturing,
IS/Simulation, Production Planning, SCM– Publication in leading journals, – Long term - editor of leading journal
• Develop relationships with manufacturers in El Paso and Juarez.
• Manufacturing-Logistics Center? - outreach program.– Foster knowledge creation in the ML field - faculty and
student projects, grants, ....– Foster business2business partnerships/creation of new
businesses– Continuing education programs?
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My vision of the futureteaching
• Teaching/POM– Continue development of teaching games
• Program/curricula development– Graduate program in Manufacturing
Logistics?– Integration of APICS certification into
some undergraduate and graduate courses?
– Revision of POM undergraduate program?– ERP integration to the POM program?
• Link undergraduate POM students to faculty research projects
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•Thanks for your time
•Questions?