1 river health and eflows project summary of findings cn
TRANSCRIPT
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中国河流健康与环境流量项目 : 主要成果
Robert Speed
北京, 2012 年 2 月 23 日
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大纲
1. 项目简介
2. 环境流量评估
3. 河流健康评估
4. 主要发现和建议
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大纲
1. 项目简介
2. 环境流量评估
3. 河流健康评估
4. 主要发现和建议
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基本情况 :•2009 年 9 月 – 2012 年 3月•400 万澳元•2 个主题 :
• 河流健康• 环境流量
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黄河流域 ( 黄河下游 )
珠江 流域 ( 桂江 )
辽河流域 ( 太子河 )
技术路线
试点区域
现状回顾
评估河流健康和环境流量需求
国家层面的建议
政策发展;国际回顾
能力
发展
能力
发展
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大纲
1. 项目简介
2. 环境流量评估
3. 河流健康评估
4. 主要发现和建议
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Presentation Heading
Identify assets
Set objectives for each asset
Develop preferred e-flow rules
Model e-flows and security of supply against targets
Outcomes and risks understood
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黄河下游 : 重要生态资产黄河三角洲湿地
郑州黄河湿地
开封黄河湿地
孟津黄河湿地
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黄河下游流量目标
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建议的流量情势黄河下游,河段 1 ( 低风险 )
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Presentation Heading
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环境流量评估方法• 基于资产的方法• 全面的方法• 方法具有适应不同状况的能力
– 数据的时间或成本约束• 使信息被反馈到决策过程中;作为权衡的基础
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环境流量政策和水资源分配
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大纲
1. 项目简介
2. 环境流量评估
3. 河流健康评估 a. 珠江和辽河试点 b. 黄河试点 c. 水文
4. 主要发现和建议
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1 Identify the objectives of the program 确定项目目标2 Identify suitable measures (indicators) of drivers, stressors and response
确认合适的驱使因素,压力源和反应的指标3 Develop conceptual models linking range of drivers to potential impacts
联系驱使因素和潜在影响开发概念模型4 River Classification to identify homogenous ‘river types’
河流分类从而确认相同的河流类型5 Trial sampling program and refinement of indicators 采样试验,完善指
标6 Selection of suitable benchmarks for ecological indicators
选取合适的生态指标的基准7 Reporting & Communication 报告和交流8 Implement management actions to address priority areas/threats
执行管理行动,明确地区 / 威胁的优先顺序
Important steps 项目发展的重要步骤1 Identify the objectives of the program 确定项目目标2 Identify suitable measures (indicators) of drivers, stressors and
response确认合适的驱使因素,压力源和反应的指标
3 Develop conceptual models linking range of drivers to potential impacts联系驱使因素和潜在影响开发概念模型
4 River Classification to identify homogenous ‘river types’河流分类从而确认相同的河流类型
5 Trial sampling program and refinement of indicators 采样试验,完善指标
6 Selection of suitable benchmarks for ecological indicators选取合适的生态指标的基准
7 Reporting & Communication 报告和交流8 Implement management actions to address priority
areas/threats执行管理行动,明确地区 / 威胁的优先顺序
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分类
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对应于干扰梯度的评估
100 150 200 250 300 350
10
20
30
40
50
EC
M_
S
电导率 ( 低风险 ) 丰富度 = 3.7027 – 0.0024EC. P < 0.0001. 调整 R2 = 0.1502.
5 10 15 20
02
04
06
08
0
%Construction in Catchment
Fi_
D城镇化
鱼类的个
体
( 低风险 ) 个体 . = 4.4303 – 0.1382* 城镇 %. P < 0.0001. 调整 R2 = 0.3169.
大型无脊椎动物的丰富
度
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太子河 与压力源有显著关系 * 的指标
山区水质 : EC, NH3-N, TN, TP大型无脊椎动物: SR , BMWP , EPT R(F)鱼类: F-IBI; A: A-IBI
丘陵区水质 : EC, volatile phenols, NH3-N, TN, TP大型无脊椎动物: SR , BMWP , EPT R(F)鱼类: F-IBI; A: A-IBI
洪泛平原水质 : EC, BOD5, CODCr, NH3-N, TN, TP大型无脊椎动物: SR , BMWP , EPT R(F)鱼类: F-IBI; A: A-IBI
选择的指标
*(p<0.05)
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参照值和标杆分析
Concentration ,浓度
Freq.(# obs.) ,监测频率 All sites – all years ,所有点,所有年
95th %’ile50th %’ile
Single site , – report year ,单点,报告年
80th %’ile
Reference sites – all years ,参考点,所有年
0 (worst case) ,最差
1 (reference) ,参考点
Standard to achieve values
Convert all values to common scale to allow comparison 转化所有结果使其成具有可比性
Compare values against: 结果比较- other sites in study; other studies 与其他点进行比较,与其他研究结果进行比较- national standards; international standards 国家标准,国际标准
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Reporting on river health
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Objectives framework (from YRCC)目标框架(来自水利部黄河水利委员会)
“Healthy Indicators of the Yellow River”
• Flow continuity 河流连续性• Channel configuration for water and sediment
transportation 水和沉积物流动通道的容量• Water quality standard 河水质量标准• River ecosystem 河流生态系统• Water supply capacity 河水供应容量
Hydrology 水文学
Geomorphology 地貌学
Water quality 水质Ecology 生态Social-economic
社会经济
“The 4 Nos” 四不准• No embankment breaching 水不漫堤• No river running dry 无河流干涸• No water pollution beyond standard 无超出标准的水体污染• No river bed rising further 无河床上升
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河流健康的报告卡
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水文和河流健康
• 流量健康指数– 基于环境流量评估
• 流量偏离指数– 基于与自然流量情势的偏离情况
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流量偏离指数
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Mo
nth
ly f
low
(m
3
106)
50th percentile in reference period
25th percentile in reference period
Year 1999/2000
Persistently low (PLF)and persistentlyvery low (PVL)
Persistentlyhigh (PHF)
High f low season volumegreatly reduced (HFV)
Low f low season volumegreatly reduced (LFV)
Seasonality altered (SFS)
Lowest monthly f lowgreatly reduced
from reference (LMF)
Highest monthly f lowmoderately reducedfrom reference (HMF)
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输出结果的实例
• 每一年都有得分• 子指标可以显示流量情势的哪些组成部分是不健康的• 主要对人工调节 egulation ,但也对自然变化敏感
– 生态指标
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“流量健康”软件工具
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大纲
1. 项目简介
2. 环境流量评估
3. 河流健康评估 4. 主要发现和建议
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河流健康评估1. 采取基于目标的方法来进行评估很重要2. 需要对指标进行测试来确定是否适宜于当地情况:对照干扰
和 / 或目标3. 最大限度地使 用现有数据4. 首先,要建立一致的数据采集方法
– 质量控制 / 质量保证很重要5. 没有必要在所有的站点均使用同样的指标6. 对河流类型进行分类,对于帮助确定适宜的参照状况很重要
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环境流量
1. 采取基于目标的方法很重要2. 采取全面的评估方法的价值:与相关概念的科学发展保持一致3. 将方法与当地情况相适应
– 认可健康河流的价值4. 认识到环境流量是水资源分配过程的核心
– 在进行水资源分配时,将相关信息纳入进来,再做出决策– 确定支持环境流量的分配措施和管理措施
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如需了解更多信息,请访问:
www.watercentre.org
• 技术报告• 详细的案例研究• 报告卡• 培训材料• 流量健康( FlowHealth )软件工具
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谢谢 !