1 roms real-time modeling, data assimilation and forecasting during aosn ii yi chao, zhijin li, jei...
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ROMS Real-Time Modeling, Data Assimilation and ROMS Real-Time Modeling, Data Assimilation and Forecasting during AOSN II Forecasting during AOSN II
Yi Chao, Zhijin Li, Jei Choi, Peggy Li
Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of Technology
&
Jim McWilliams, Xavier Capet, Patrick Marchesiello, Kayo Ide
University of California, Los Angeles
ASAP Meeting, Feb. 2005
JPLDAAC
AncillaryData
DataRetrieval &Processing
3D ModelAssimilation
COVO
Other NASA DAACs
Feedback
Non -NASA Data Centers
ApplicationServer (GIS)
ResearchServer (POET)
SciGISServer
JPLDAAC
AncillaryData
DataRetrieval &Processing
3D ModelAssimilation
Other NASA DAACs
Feedback
Non -NASA Data Centers
ApplicationServer (GIS)
ResearchServer (POET)
SciGISServer
2
Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): 3-Level On-Line Nesting
15/5/1.5-km
2.5-km5-km
10-km
20-km
Observation
(Marchesiello et al., 2003)
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ROMS Data Assimilation System
12-hour forecast
J = 0.5 (x-xf)T B-1 (x-xf) + 0.5 (h x-y)T R-1 (h x-y)
Time
Aug.100Z
Aug.118Z
Aug.112Z
Aug.106Z
Initialcondition
6-hour forecast
Aug.200Z
Xa = xf + xf
Xa
xf
3-dimensional variational (3DVAR) method:
3-day forecast
y: observationx: model
6-hour assimilation cycle
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Sea Surface Temperature Data &
ROMS Reanalysis
Aircraft
5
Observed SST ROMS-Simulated SST
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03Z
09Z 15Z 21Z
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15 Aug
16 Aug
17 Aug
0
AUV Remus ROMS Reanalysis
Distance (km) 23Subsurface salinity minimal
18 Aug
(M. Moline)
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Ground-Truth ROMS Reanalysis against Independent Mooring Observations
M1
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Ground-Truth ROMS Reanalysis against Independent Mooring Observations
M2
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Near-Term (3-year) Challenges
• Remote forcing from basin-scale climate (ENSO, PDO)
• COAMPS (short- & long-wave) radiative fluxes
• Tidal processes
• Real-time interactive feedback via OSSE (Observing System Simulation/Sensitivity Experiment) or “On-Demand Modeling”
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2003 summer off the U.S. West coast is anomalously warm!
How to provide large-scale B.C.?
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El Nino’s Impact on U.S. West Coast Circulation
1989 2001
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Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)’s Impact on California Coastal Circulation
PDO-
PDO+
(Chao et al., GRL, 2001)
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Regional Ocean Modeling System: Nesting High-Resolution Regional Models in Coarse-Resolution Models
15/5/1.5-km
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Simulating El Nino and La Nina with Pacific ROMS
Observations ROMS
Temp
SSH
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Simulated PDO: Sea Surface Temperature
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Net Incoming Short-Wave radiation•Reduction in the morning (diurnal cycle)
•Reduction during the relaxation phase
•COAMPS didn’t reproduce these features, mostly due to the lack of clouds (low-level), which can be approximated with (1-0.7nc)
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Net Outgoing Long-Wave Radiation
Red: COAMPS
Blue: Outgoing computed by blackbody (0.985T4) radiation MINUS the computed (0.38-0.05e0.5) incoming radiation in the absence of clouds
Green: Blackbody outgoing MINUS mooring measured incoming long-wave radiation
* Cloud correction (1-0.6nc2)
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Tidal Processes
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End-to-End System Engineering: Autonomous Real-Time Operations
Integrated Ocean Observing and Prediction Systems
OnOn--DemandDemandWeb PortalWeb Portal
WebWeb--basedbasedUser InterfaceUser Interface
User’s Desktops
Remote Archives
JPLGSFC
NOAA
NAVYNear Real-Time
Server
Modeling & Data Assimilation
MM5
3DVAR 4DVAR
ROMS
Analysis & Visualization
EOF
Transport
Data Regridding, Subsetting, & Plotting
3D Visualization
Correlation& RMS
WebWeb--basedbasedUser InterfaceUser Interface
User’s DesktopsWebWeb--basedbased
User InterfaceUser Interface
User’s Desktops
……
Internet
OnOn--DemandDemandWeb PortalWeb PortalOnOn--DemandDemandWeb PortalWeb Portal
WebWeb--basedbasedUser InterfaceUser Interface
User’s DesktopsWebWeb--basedbased
User InterfaceUser InterfaceWebWeb--basedbased
User InterfaceUser Interface
User’s Desktops
Remote Archives
JPLGSFC
NOAA
NAVYNear Real-Time
Server
Remote Archives
JPLGSFC
NOAA
NAVYNear Real-Time
Server
Modeling & Data Assimilation
MM5
3DVAR 4DVAR
ROMS
Modeling & Data Assimilation
MM5
3DVAR 4DVAR
ROMS
Analysis & Visualization
EOF
Transport
Data Regridding, Subsetting, & Plotting
3D Visualization
Correlation& RMS
Analysis & Visualization
EOF
Transport
Data Regridding, Subsetting, & Plotting
3D Visualization
Data Regridding, Subsetting, & Plotting
3D Visualization
Correlation& RMS
WebWeb--basedbasedUser InterfaceUser Interface
User’s DesktopsWebWeb--basedbased
User InterfaceUser InterfaceWebWeb--basedbased
User InterfaceUser Interface
User’s DesktopsWebWeb--basedbased
User InterfaceUser Interface
User’s DesktopsWebWeb--basedbased
User InterfaceUser InterfaceWebWeb--basedbased
User InterfaceUser Interface
User’s Desktops
……
Internet
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OSSE Engine (On-Demand Modeling)