1 shawn osell university of wisconsin – superior [email protected]
TRANSCRIPT
2
Adult stature decreased at a time of significant economic growth (1800 – 1860).
We expect there to be a positive correlation between the average heights of a population and increased productivity & consumption.
Note: life expectancy was also decreasing during this same time period.
What is the Antebellum Puzzle?
3
Margo and Steckel (1983)
Haines, Craig Weiss (2003)
Komlos (1987)
Sokoloff (1984)
Literature Review
4
During the Antebellum period, real GDP per capita was increasing, while average heights were decreasing.
Real GDP per capita in 2000 dollars
5
Internal /external mobility and disease; i.e. domestic trade routes, immigration. Urbanization, congestion, lack of sanitation Slow growth in real wages Environmental degradation Political strife
(Reviewed in Haines, Craig, and Weis (2003))
Growing pains of economic development: explanations from the literature
6
Was there a substitution effect between food prices and manufactured products that contributed to the decline of average heights of Americans during the Antebellum Period?
Research Question:
Stature = b0 + b1 farmer
+b2 professional1
+b3 Professional 2
+ b4 artisan
+b5 service
+ b6 manual
+ b7 unproductive
+b8 agricultural worker
+ b9 born in NY
+ b10 born in PA
+b11 Born 1826-1830
+ b12 Born 1831-1835
+b13 Born 1836-1843
+ b14 RPI (Relative Price Index)
+ U
Testing for a substitution effect between food & manufactured goods
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Stature = Height of the union army recruit;
Professional1 = manufacturers, teachers, lawyers, and other professional workers;
Professional2 = clerks, merchants and salesmen;
Artisan = skilled labor including blacksmiths, carpenters, and masons;
service = service workers including assistants, spinners, and policemen;
Unproductive = includes those who are not involved in paid work i.e. retirees, students;
agricultural worker = hired farm workers;
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born in MW = the army recruit was born in MW;born in NY = the army recruit was born in NY;born in PA = the army recruit was born in PA;
Born 1826-1830 = the army recruit was born 1826-1830;
Born 1831-1835 = the army recruit was born 1831-1835;
Born 1836-1843 = the army recruit was born 1836-1843;
RPI = relative price index;
U = disturbance term;
The RPI is a price index of manufactured goods divided by a price index of agricultural goods:
RPI (Relative Price Index)
Information about army recruits: Fogel, Robert W., and Stanley Engerman, UNION ARMY RECRUITS IN
WHITE REGIMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1861-1865
Price statistics :Wholesale commodity prices in the United States, 1700-1861 (Cole, 1938).
The index of this book includes monthly averages of several products for various different US cities during the antebellum period. However, only three of the cities were applicable to this research: Cincinnati, New York City, and Pittsburgh.
Data Collection and sources
Prices of agricultural goods and prices of manufactured goods were added together in order to create a price index for both types of products.
In order to create a price index that reflected price sensitivity to stature determination, another annual index was created.
These price indexes include the prices of manufactured and agricultural goods for the time periods t = -1, 1, 6, 7, 12, and 13; where t = 0 is the army soldiers birth year.
These years represent when an individual’s stature is most sensitive to food consumption.
The variable RPI was created with the two price indexes:
Independent Variable 1 2
Intercept66.349
(80.224)*66.264
(132.959)*
Born in MW.561
(7.839)*
Born in NY-1.542
(-5.980)
Born in PA-.78
(2.081)
Born 1826-18301.803
(11.399)*2.217
(6.419)*
Born 1831-18351.569
(13.629)*1.808
(7.564)*
Born 1836-18431.314
(17.364)*1.481
(9.642)*
Relative Price Index (RPI)1.158
(2.153)*
Adj-R2
.078 .10
N5560 1751
Selected Regression Coefficients