1. state of the art for space weather 2.current climate ...gerrard/files/final_class_2019.pdf ·...

PHYS 203 Final Class

1. State of the Art for Space Weather 2. Current Climate Change Debate

Solar storm Risk to the north American electric grid

Solar Storm Risk to the North American

Electric Grid,

Lloyd's and the Atmospheric and

Environmental Research, Inc., 2013.

Space Weather

Solar Storm Risk to the North American Electric Grid, Lloyd's and the Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., 2013.

• A Carrington-level, extreme geomagnetic storm is almost inevitable in the future. While the probability of an extreme storm occurring is relatively low at any given time, it is almost inevitable that one will occur eventually.

• Historical auroral records suggest a return period of 50 years for Quebec-level storms and 150 years for very extreme storms, such as the Carrington Event that occurred 154 years ago.

• The risk of intense geomagnetic storms is elevated as we approach the peak of the current solar cycle. Solar activity follows an 11-year cycle, with the most intense events occurring near the cycle peak. For the current Cycle 24, the geomagnetic storm risk is projected to peak in early 2015.

• Weighted by population, the highest risk of storm-induced power outages in the US is along the Atlantic corridor between Washington D.C. and New York City. This takes into account risk factors such as magnetic latitude, distance to the coast, ground conductivity and transmission grid properties. Other high-risk regions are the Midwest states, such as Michigan and Wisconsin, and regions along the Gulf Coast.

• The total U.S. population at risk of extended power outage from a Carrington-level storm is between 20-40 million, with durations of 16 days to 1-2 years.

• The duration of outages will depend largely on the availability of spare replacement transformers.

• If new transformers need to be ordered, the lead-time is likely to be a minimum of five months.

• The total economic cost for such a scenario is estimated at $0.6-2.6 trillion USD (see Appendix).

• Storms weaker than Carrington-level could result in a small number of damaged transformers (around 10-20), but the potential damage to densely populated regions along the Atlantic coast is significant. The total number of damaged transformers is less relevant for prolonged power outage than their concentration. The failure of a small number of transformers serving a highly populated area is enough to create a situation of prolonged outage.

• A severe space weather event that causes major disruption to the electricity network in the US could have major implications for the insurance industry. If businesses, public services and households are without power for sustained periods of time, insurers may be exposed to business interruption and other claims.

Co-Chairs Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration Department of Homeland Security Office of Science and Technology Policy

Members

Department of Commerce Department of Defense Department of Energy Department of Homeland Security Department of the Interior Department of State Department of Transportation

Federal Aviation Administration Federal Communications Commission Federal Emergency Management Agency Federal Energy Regulatory Commission National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Science Foundation Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of the Director of National Intelligence United States Air Force United States Geological Survey United States Navy United States Postal Service

National Security Council Office of Management and Budget Office of Science and Technology Policy White House Military Office

Center for Solar-Terrestrial

Research


Research

Goal 1: Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events Goal 2: Enhance Response and Recovery Capabilities Goal 3: Improve Protection and Mitigation Efforts Goal 4: Improve Assessment, Modeling, and Prediction of Impacts on Critical Infrastructure Goal 5: Improve Space-Weather Services through Advancing Understanding and Forecasting Goal 6: Increase International Cooperation


Research

Goal 1: Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events Goal 2: Enhance Response and Recovery Capabilities Goal 3: Improve Protection and Mitigation Efforts Goal 4: Improve Assessment, Modeling, and Prediction of Impacts on Critical Infrastructure Goal 5: Improve Space-Weather Services through Advancing Understanding and Forecasting Goal 6: Increase International Cooperation

For CSTR…

1. National Space Weather Strategy (National Science and Technology Council, Executive Office of the President (EOP), October 2015); available online at https://w w w. w h i t e h o u s e . g o v / s i t e s / d e f a u l t / f i l e s / m i c r o s i t e s / o s t p / f i n a l _ nationalspaceweatherstrategy_20151028.pdf.

Strategy for a multi-agency national space weather program developed at the initiative of the Office of Science and Technology Policy of the EOP.

2. National Space Weather Action Plan (National Science and Technology Council, Executive Office of the President (EOP), October 2015); available online at https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/final_nationalspaceweatheractionplan_20151028.pdf.

Detailed national plan for federal agencies, academia, and the private sector in executing the space weather strategy outlined in the National Space Weather Strategy document.

3. Baker, D. N. and L J. Lanzerotti (2016) Resource Letter SW1: Space Weather, American Journal of Physics, 84, 166, doi: 10.1119/1.4938403


Research


Research

Space Policy Institute

Elliott School of

International Affairs

U N I V E R S I T I E S S P A C E R E S E A R C H A S S O C I A T I O N

A N D T H E S P A C E P O L I C Y I N S T I T U T E

P R E S E N T A S Y M P O S I U M O N

S P A C E W E A T H E R S C I E N C E A N D A P P L I C A T I O N S R E S E A R C H F O R T O D A Y , T R A I N I N G F O R T O M O R R O W

W H A T A R E T H E E M E R G I N G O P P O R T U N I T I E S F O R S C I E N C E A N D

P R A C T I C A L A P P L I C A T I O N S ?

M A R C H 3 1 , 2 0 1 6

Capitol Hill Holiday Inn 550 C Street SW, Washington, DC 20024

1:00 P.M. Welcome and Introductory Remarks • JEFF ISAACSON, USRA President and CEO • SCOTT PACE, Director, Space Policy Institute

1:10 P.M. Frederick A. Tarantino Memorial Address • TAMARA L. DICKINSON, Principal Assistant Director for Environment and Energy,

Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President

2:00 P.M. Current Scientific Developments and Potential Impacts • DANIEL BAKER, Director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics,

University of Colorado – Boulder University of Colorado at Boulder • PATRICIA DOHERTY, Director, Institute for Scientific Research, Boston College • LOUIS J. LANZEROTTI, Distinguished Research Professor of Physics, Center for

Solar Terrestrial Research, New Jersey Institute of Technology • SARAH ELLIS PEED, Director of Strategy, Policy & Budget, Office of Infrastructure

Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security • RALPH O. STOFFLER, Director of Weather, Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations,

Headquarters, U.S. Air Force

3:15 P.M. Coffee Break

USRA March 2016


Research


Research

• Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Sens. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), and Cory Booker (D-N.J.).

• Department of Defense and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration would take responsibility for providing operational space weather forecasts.

• NASA and the National Science Foundation would support that forecasting through basic space science research.

• NOAA to develop backup plans should satellites that currently provide data fail.

• Other sections of the bill cover the development of space weather “benchmarks” that can be used to better understand the strength and frequency of solar storms, and requires that the Department of Homeland Security study the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to solar activity.

• The bill parallels many aspects of a National Space Weather Action Plan released by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy last year.

The Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act: April 2016


Research

What Does Andy Think?

5th IPCC Report

Synthesis report: 2 November 2013 Full Report: January 2014

1. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of observed warming since 1950, with the level of confidence having increased since the fourth report.

2. The report “beefs up” the 2007 IPCC report statistics overall.

3. Biggest Issue: The effect of aerosols was assessed to be the dominant uncertainty in radiative forcing.

What Does Andy Think?

April 30, 13Big Bear Solar Observatory

Changes in Earth’s Climate! In the most basic sense, it depends on changes in ! The Sun’s output ! The Earth’s reflectivity ! Atmospheric Greenhouse gasses

! Earthshine provides a global measure of reflectivity and greenhouse gasses ! Precise, cheap and global ! Satellites are expensive, degrade and can fail

April 30, 13

The Albedo Sets the Input to the Climate Heat Engine

Solar constant AlbedoGreenhouse Gas


Current Earthshine Team

! Phil Goode ! Steven Koonin ! Pilar Montañés Rodriguez ! Enric Pallé Bago ! Andrew Gerrard


Earthshine is Sunlight Reflected from Earth to Moon and Back

! Ghostly glow of the dark part of the lunar disk

! First explained by Leonardo DaVinci (c. 1510)

! E/M ~Albedo X geometry X moon properties

! Intensity varies during the month " Largest at crescent Moon

(full Earth) " Smallest near full Moon

(crescent Earth) ! First measured by A.

Danjon (1927-34) and J. Dubois (1940-1960)

April 30, 13

a

θ=π−βGeometryLunar

reflectivities θ0 ~ 1o

Zero-airmass intensities

β

Rem

b

Re

A* → p* for historical reasons


Scattered light correction

Raw Corrected


15/10/99 Phase = -116

04/09/99 Phase = +110

Coverage during One Night


Earth’s Reflectance in Time! Earthshine

(blue) ! Regression

from ES and ISCCP (shaded area)

! Global reflectance from reconstruction

! Global warming since 1850 (red)


Can Earth’s Reflectance Increase while Earth Warms?

! Earthshine and other results point to an increasing reflectance over the past five years, which reverses a fifteen year trend of decline

! Taken in isolation, less sunlight would imply a reversal of global warming

! Recently updated ISCCP data reveal a change in clouds, so both reduced sunlight and increased global warming are possible

! Results also confirm earlier Earthshine results of an increasing Earth albedo

1. state of the art for space weather 2.current climate ...gerrard/files/final_class_2019.pdf ·...

Documents