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The EUROBRISA Project

David StephensonUniversity of Exeter

2nd EUROBRISA workshop, Dartmoor, UK, 21-24 July 2009

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Aims of EUROBRISA1. Strengthen collaboration and promote exchange of

expertise and information between European and South American climate scientists;

2. Produce improved seasonal climate forecasts for South America using recent scientific advances in both coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling and statistical calibration and combination of multi-model ensemble forecasts;

3. Develop forecast products for non-profitable governmental use in South America (e.g. reservoir management, hydropower production, and agriculture).

A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO DO SOMETHING REALLY IMPRESSIVE!

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Institutions and peopleUniversity of Exeter (UE), U.K. David Stephenson, Rachel Lowe … + Trevor Bailey

Centre for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies (CPTEC), BrazilCaio Coelho, Maria Assuncao Dias, Simone Costa

European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK. Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Magdalena Balmaseda

U.K. Met Office (UKMO), Exeter, U.K.Richard Graham, Alberto Arribas

Météo-France (MF), Toulouse, FranceMichel Deque, Jean-Philippe Piedelievre

Federal University of Paraná (UFPR), BrazilAlexandre Guetter

Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), Brazil

Antonio Moura, Lauro Fortes and Yumiko Marina T. da Anunciação University of São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, BrazilTercio Ambrizzi, Rosmeri Porfirio Rocha

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Partner committmentsUniversity of Exeter, School of Engineering, Computer Science and Mathematics (UK): • Overall coordination of the network assisted by the Network Facilitator• Expert advice in the statistical calibration, combination, and verification of forecasts

Centre for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies (CPTEC, Brazil):• Develop and implement a procedure for producing best quality seasonal climate forecasts • Act as the S. American point of contact for the Network.

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF):• Provide CPTEC with real-time seasonal forecast data from the European coupled model forecasting systems

Met Office (U.K. Met Office):• Provide ECMWF with real-time seasonal forecast data from the U.K. Met Office forecasting system;• Advise on the development of forecast products for applications in S. American hydropower production;• Collaborate with the U. of Exeter on how best to improve the seasonal forecasting system.

Météo-France: • Provide ECMWF with real-time seasonal forecast data from the Météo-France coupled model forecasting system

Federal University of Paraná (UFPR - Brazil): • Develop a seasonal stream flow forecasting system for use in hydro-electric power production forecasting• Perform diagnostic studies of hydrologic extreme events

Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET): • Research on the use and value of the combined and calibrated forecasts in agricultural activities

University of São Paulo, Department of Atmospheric Science (USP, Brazil):• Theoretical and observational studies of seasonal predictability• Production of regional seasonal predictions for southeast Brazil

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Objectives of this workshop

• Give EUROBRISA partners chance to meet each other and share ideas;

• Report on research achievements;

• Plan what to do next:– Identify research required for improving South

American seasonal forecasts; – Identify research required for user applications

(e.g. agriculture, hydropower and health);– Data needs and development of system;– Joint publications

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EUROBRISA plans• Improving the EUROBRISA system

– Inclusion of more forecast models: CPTEC, MF, GLOSEA4– Improved skill: wider domain, streamfunction, more robust calibration– New visualisation e.g. the ternary colour scheme– Monthly mean precipitation output? (for use in applications)

• Integrated applications– Common EUROBRISA calibrated forecast data– Time period – recent La Nina (July 2006- Jan 2010)– Case study common regions? NE Brazil, SE Brazil, ??

• Research outputs/publications– Overview of system + apps (Bulletin AMS)– Calibration paper(s)– Applications papers– New visualisation of forecasts paper(s)

• 3rd year workshop in Brazil in 2010• Any other matters?

Please keep questions/comments short, focussed, relevant to EUROBRISA!

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Now let the show begin …Now let the show begin …