1 the future of copyright uva mba: ching-heng wu hui-fei yen vijay kalappa scenarios from 2006 to...

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The Future of Copyright The Future of Copyright

UvA MBA:

Ching-Heng Wu

Hui-Fei Yen

Vijay Kalappa

Scenarios from 2006 to 2016

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AgendaAgenda

Research Questions

Systems diagram

Copyright in different industries

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Conclusions

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Research Questions Research Questions

What is copyright?

What will happen on copyright in the future10 years?

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DictionaryDictionary Copyright: “The exclusive right to reproduce, publish, and sell the matter and

form (as a literary, musical or artistic work)” Webster

Intellectual Property: “A product of the intellect that has commercial value, including copyrighted property such as literary or artistic works, and ideational property, such as patents, appellations of origin, business methods and industrial processes.” American Heritage Dictionary

Public Domain: "The public domain comprises the body of knowledge and innovation (especially creative works such as writing, art, music, and inventions) in relation to which no person or other legal entity can establish or maintain proprietary interests within a particular legal jurisdiction. This body of information and creativity is considered to be part of a common cultural and intellectual heritage, which, in general, anyone may use or exploit, whether for commercial or non-commercial purposes." Wikipedia

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Dictionary cont…Dictionary cont… DRM: Digital rights management (DRM) refer to any of several technologies

used to enforce pre-defined policies controlling access to software, music, movies, or other digital data and hardware. DRM handles the description, layering, analysis, valuation, trading, monitoring and enforcement of the usage restrictions that accompany a specific instance of a digital work.

Copyleft: a general method for making a program or other work free, and requiring all modified and extended versions of the program to be free as well. www.gnu.org

Open content: describes any kind of creative work including articles, pictures, audio, and video that is published in a format that explicitly allows the copying of the information

Moral right: the rights of creators of copyrighted works. Moral rights include the right of attribution, the right to have a work published anonymously or pseudonymously, and the right to the integrity of the work (i.e., it cannot be distorted or otherwise mutilated) www.wikipedia.org

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Systems DiagramSystems Diagram

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Copyright in different industriesCopyright in different industries

IssuesRelatedIndustry

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Software

PiracySoftware

• Technology driven

• Economics disparity (big gap!)

Copyleft

　　


• Economics similarity (smaller gap)

Copyright

　　　


• Economics conflicts

• Evolution / Transform

New wave!

?!

GoogleLibrary

Publishing

P2P Music &Film

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Scenario 1: Driving forcesScenario 1: Driving forces

Technological– Software continues to advance– Sharing increases & fosters creativity

Economic– Media & software corporations lose revenue– Economics disparity whthin and between countries– Consolidation of industries

Government– The Publics support free sharing of information– New legislation supports free sharing of information

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Scenario 1: Software InfringementScenario 1: Software Infringement

2006 Economic driving forces encourage increased piracy

– With economy booming and technology advancing, need for IT increases, especially in developing nations

– People in developing nations cannot afford high retail prices of software– Outcome : pirated products are rampant in developing nations

2008 Counterattack from commercial firms (held by developed nations,

like USA)– File lawsuits against vendors of pirated software– Take out technical protection, like code– Outcome: illegal behavior can be not stopped

Political & legal action by government (within its own nation) – Origin: pressure from commercial firms– Catch pirates seriously in black market– Build up of digital police to manage illegal behavior

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

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2010 Copyright piracy becomes an international issue

– USA imposes 301 act on nations that encourage piracy– USA tries to solve problem through international bodies– Economy of developing nations is still in primary stages, and quality

of life is still poor– Developing nations reluctant to follow rules introduced by USA– Developing nations’s policy encourage open content software

2016 Outcome

– More people use open resource softwares– Piracy problems on commercial softwares are still serious– Conflict between USA, and developing nations, like India and China

, becomes severe– Software industry is not as prosperous as before

Scenario 1: Software Infringement (cont…)Scenario 1: Software Infringement (cont…)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

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Scenario 1: Google LibraryScenario 1: Google Library The Association of American Publishers, which includes firms such as

Penguin, McGraw-Hill, and Pearson lose their lawsuit against Google. The right to publish both searchable passages from books, and in some instances, the entire contents of the book, is widely viewed as a landmark victory for the company

The successful introduction of Google Library – an amalgamation of Google Book Search and Google Scholar – to the online community leads to a gradual decrease in sales for bookstores around the world as information is available free of charge to users.

Authors of original works are paid through advertising revenues for information that is downloaded on their specific property. The financial gains from this are enough to offset the loss of revenue from copyright infringements. However, all information becomes a part of the public domain.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

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Scenario 1: Google Library cont…Scenario 1: Google Library cont…

The default length of copyright is reduced from life + 50 to just lifetime. This is mainly attributed to the fact that copyrights are rarely held by the creator of content, but relinquished to publishers, corporations or other entities. These bodies then enforce copyright purely for financial gain

Information in all books becomes available and accessible online. Authors choose to publish their content directly with Google, thus bypassing the traditional publishing outlets.

Teconology help the necessity for an editor becomes incidental and allows for many more authors to make their books available online.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

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Music and film also become widely available on Google and the demise of the other traditional media publishing outlets begins in earnest.

Copyright issues as they existed in 2006 disappear, embracing the Copyleft philosophy.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

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Scenario 1: P2PScenario 1: P2P 2006 (Current..) Technology driven P2P downloads become increasingly popular Music CD sales decrease Movie DVD sales decrease Movie cinema sales flat (only best sellers can last long)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

2008 Economic driven consequences Music CD retailer businesses shrink ! Movie DVD retailer businesses shrink ! International Chain Cinema alive base on their excellent marketing & economic scale Small cinema financial crisis! 1. Close or go bankrupt 2. Transformed to topic specific cinema, but hard to be profitable

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Scenario 1: P2P Download (Con…)Scenario 1: P2P Download (Con…)

2010 Economics, politics & the law try to fight back Developed countries force developing countries to ban P2P file sharing Failure! Reason: Developing countries are negligent in execution, since their own

economy and society benefit. Music and movie companies sue P2P creators and users. Failure! 1. P2P creators claim they only provide the tools for people to exchange files,

which is not illegal. 2. P2P downloading behavior spreads underground; it is very hard to detect

and wipe out. 3. Suing individual users damages the image of corporations and incurs the

wrath of the public. 4: New P2P tools continue to emerge: quicker speed, better quality and higher

security which can anti-detect.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

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Scenario 1: P2P Download (Con…)Scenario 1: P2P Download (Con…)

2016 Therefore, the results of market segments:

P2P Usage increases dramatically. Pirated software sales slightly decrease. Legal music & film purchases drop sharply.

Customers Segement Trend

0

100

200

300

400500

600

700

800

900

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

year

Customers %

P2P Users Pirate Buyers Legal Products Buyers

Market segement in 2016

85%

5%

10%

P2P Users

Pirate Buyers

Legal ProductsBuyers

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Scenario 2: Driving ForcesScenario 2: Driving Forces

Technological– Technology continues to advance

Economic– Corporate attack on illegal products successful– Copyrights protection leads to growth in revenues for

media & software companies Political

– New laws introduced to protect corporations success– Government imposes severe penalties on copyright

violators

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Scenario 2: Software PiracyScenario 2: Software Piracy

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

2006 Technology & economic driving forces encourage increase in

pirated software Pirate products are rampant in developing nations

2008 Counterattack from commercial firms (led by developed nations)

– Adopt lawsuit against pirates, and illegal users – Take technical protection, like code– Outcome : it works to a certain extent in their own country– Press their government to negotiate with developing nations to

tackle piracy problems Domestic political & legal action by government

– Education : teach people the importance of copyright– Serious clamp down on pirate vendors– Digital police presence increases exponentially to manage illegal

behavior on the internet

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Scenario 2: Software Piracy Scenario 2: Software Piracy 2008 Domestic political & legal action by government

– Laws implemented to monitor and regulate internet behavior2010 Copyright piracy becomes a international issue

– USA imposes 301 act on nations that produce pirated software– USA goes to international bodies to solve problem – special task

force established at United Nations– Economy of developing nations improves, and subsequent living

standards increase also– Developing nations become more aware and inclined to obey

international legislation2016 Outcome

– Position of copyright remains– Piracy problems are less serious– Software industry is as prosperous as before

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

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Scenario 2: Google LibraryScenario 2: Google Library

The Association of American Publishers, which includes firms such as Penguin, McGraw-Hill, and Pearson win their lawsuit against Google. This is a major blow to Google Scholar & Book Search. The company is subsequently required to dismantle Scholar and Book specific servers.

Internet users begin to look elsewhere to search for information, spawning a revival of the library and a return to traditional searches for information: through site-specific databases and catalogs.

Publishers question the rights of libraries to loan information to people.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

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Publishers require that all accessed information must be paid for

Traditional media publishers become very wealthy by charging for all information.

Legislation that is implemented to protect copyright and the intellectual property of creators becomes increasingly strict

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

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Scenario 2: P2P DownloadScenario 2: P2P Download 2006 (Current..) Technology driven P2P download become increasingly popular Music CD sales decrease Movie DVD sales decrease Movie cinema sales remain flat (only best sellers can last long)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

2008 Economy driven consequences Music CD retailer business shrink ! Movie DVD retailer business shrink ! International Chain Cinema alive base on their excellent marketing & economic scale Small cinema financial crisis! 1. Close or go bankrupt 2. Transformed to specific topic cinema, but hard to be profitable

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Scenario 2: P2P Download (cont..)Scenario 2: P2P Download (cont..)

2010-2016 Economic driving forces attack Music and Movie producing companies take action successfully! 1. Investment in new technology to overall detect Internet upload /download

flow Warn P2P heavy users to stop illegal download Sue illegal users successfully 2. Success in innovating Anti-Copy CD and DVD skills 3. Powerful economic lobby is forces government to enforce copyright law 4. Lobby to legislate new law 5. Form “international copyright association” 6. Hold “world copyright meeting” (WCO)” 7. Re-set music CD / film DVD price based on local income 8. Set-up online outlets which provide trial music and movies. Ownership only

permitted through sale.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

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Scenario 2: P2P Download (cont..)Scenario 2: P2P Download (cont..)

2010 Illegal download decrease Legal buyer increase 2016

Market segement in 2016

10%

90%

Illegal users

Legal buyers

Consumers' Trend

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Illegal users

Legal buyers

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Scenario 3: Driving ForcesScenario 3: Driving Forces Technological

– Technology and software continue to advance

Economic– Emergence of new business model that embraces

sharing– In some instances, sharing entails credit

Political– Government oversees legal solutions to long term

conflict between individuals and corporations

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Scenario 3: Software InfringementScenario 3: Software Infringement

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

2006 Technology & economic driving forces cause pirate

– Pirated products are rampant in developing nations2008 Counterattack by commercial firms (held by developed nations)

– Adoption of lawsuits against pirates and illegal users – Development of technical protection, like code

Political or legal actions from government (within its own nation) – Education : teach people the importance of copyright– Catch pirates seriously in black market– Build up the digital police to manage the illegal behavior on the

internet New concept of Copyleft propagates

– People share what they have with each other– Spreads from Japan to USA, and to all the world

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Scenario 3: Software Infringement (Con..)Scenario 3: Software Infringement (Con..)

2010 Open resource, and free software spreads in popularity

– Based on the Copyleft model– In developing nations, free and open source software becomes the default

Copyright piracy becomes an international issue

– USA tries to solve piracy problems in world organizations, and forces developing nations to implement copyright law strictly

– Developing nations refuse to do so, but adopt free and open resource software

Actions from commercial companies :– Don’t depend on their government so much– Price differential in developing nations– Free versions for student, complete versions for enterprises

2016 As economies improve, the governments of developing nations compromise on

copyright issue An international copyright law is set up Close international cooperation to catch copyright pirates

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

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Scenario 3: Google LibraryScenario 3: Google Library

The Association of American Publishers’ lawsuit against Google results in a stalemate. The right to publish both searchable passages from books, and in some instances, the entire contents of the book, is permitted although publishers must be compensated whenever a source is accessed. A percentage of Google advertising revenue is benchmarked and channeled to the publishers accordingly.

Intellectual property, original ideas and concepts are monitored by Google engines themselves. Intelligent software is able to read literature and ascertain whether or not content is original or not. This begins with basic recognition that identifies verbatim copying, and develops to recognize ideas or concepts that have been copied.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

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Information conforms to the open content paradigm Embrace copyleft philosophy Google and traditional media publishers merge to form one

large media entity Revenue to support operations continues to come from

advertising which has now pervaded all aspects of technology

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

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Scenario 3: P2P DownloadScenario 3: P2P Download 2006 Technology drivers P2P download become very popular Music CD sales decrease Movie DVD sales decrease Movie cinema sales stable (no increase, but only best sellers last

long) Economic, Legal, and Societal drivers P2P supports vs. Copyright protectors keep conflict to each other. Fight and rebut Warm war to cold war Technology competitions Law dispute

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

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Scenario 3: P2P DownloadScenario 3: P2P Download 2010 Evolution process Exhausted of copyright war Market decision: die, out, survive, transform… 2016 Transform and Merge to totally new type of business model!

(Copyright is not an issue any more) Music Creators create music Creators launch by themselves Creators select Music Company to marketing, and distribute music. Choosing release online or retailer. Promote on web, radio, TV, concert….

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

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ConclusionConclusion

Different scenarios are contingent on different inputs The future of copyright is determined by the tug-of-war

between the individual and corporation Advances in technology will be the primary factor in

creating and resolving copyright issues

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Questions?Questions?

~Thank you~