1 towardsa global atm conceptthe european contribution victor aguado eurocontrol
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Towards a Global Air Traffic Management Concept
The persistent need for cost-efficiency
"Airlines have been a serial killer of capital. We have done a good job for consumers of selling our product at less than cost. In our view the
industry is a giant charity"
John Owen, Finance Director of Jet Blue
"Is there light at the end of the tunnel ? No. None of us make money at those energy prices"
Gary Kelly, Chief Executive of SouthWest
The persistent need for cost-efficiency
IATA:$5.5 billion forecast airline industry losses
for 2005
High price of fuel
System-wide break-even load factors rise
$40 billion losses for the period 2001-2005
Source: IATA
Airline operating costs
Mainstream Carrier
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%
2003
2004
Low-Cost Carrier
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%
2003
2004
Low-Cost Carriers market share in Europe
9% flight growth in ’04
10.4% market share
Slower market share growth than 2003
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
10 %
12 %
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
low
-cos
t sh
are
of I
FR
mov
emen
ts in
ES
RA
© EUROCONTROL 2005. Earlier years are estimated from data for a smaller geographical region.
The Air Transport revenue chain
Return on capital invested
Aircraft Manufacturers
Aircraft Leasing
CompaniesAirlines
Aircraft HandlingServices
Catering Airport
Aircraft Leasing
CompaniesANSPs
16% 15%
6%14% 13% 10%
>30%
AircraftManufacturers
2 suppliers:100% of market
AircraftLeasing
Companies
2 suppliers:45% of market
Airlines
> 1500 airlines,over capacity,
strongcompetition
AirportHandlingServices
Mostlymonopolies at
state-runairports, less
than 3 suppliersprivately owned
airports
Catering
2 suppliers:40% of market,
7 suppliersservice 70%
Airports
monopoly
GlogalDistribution
Systems
4 suppliersworldwide,
some dominate specific regions
ANSPs
Source: McKinsey, TEATS Ltd
2.8 to 10%
What is needed at Global level
Safety
Interoperability
Transparency
Predictability
Efficiency
Growth
=> Performance
Towards a Global Air Traffic Management Concept
A long history of common concept work
1987: EUROCONTROL ATS Concept Group report
1989: ICAO/EUR FEATS concept, GARTEUR concept paper
1990: PHARE & CATMAC (BFS) concepts
1991: FEATS input to FANS work endorsed by ICAO ANC/10
1993: EATMS initial operational concept
1995: User Requirements Document
1997: OCD V1
1997: ATM 2000+ Strategy development launched
1999: OCD V1.1
1999: ICAO ATMCP work starts
2000: ATM 2000+ Strategy approved
2003: ATM 2000+ Strategy revised
2003: ICAO ANC/11 endorses OCD
2004: EUROCONTROL OCD V2
2004: Industry road map (presented by IATA)
EC: several concept studies since 1991 (AEGIS, ATLAS, TORCH, Gate-2-Gate, C-ATM) have been exploited
2005: EURO OCD/ConOps integrated with C-ATM
European Contribution
EUROOCD
ICAOOCD
ATM2000+
European ATMMaster Plan
IATA
Air Traffic Management performance
European Air Traffic Management delivers solid performance
CapacitySafety
Total Costs vs Traffic Unit Costs
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
1,1
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
es
t
20
05
es
t
Eu
ro 2
00
2/
km
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
Total Costs (1990= index 100) Traff ic (1990=index 100)
All States in CRCO sytem Data source : EUROCONTROL
Traffic / Delays
Delays have reached an all-time low: En-Route Flow Management delay: 1.2 min/flight Summer 2004
Traffic / Delays
Delays have reached an all-time low: En-Route Flow Management delay: 1.2 min/flight Summer 2004
Air Traffic Management performance
European Air Traffic Management delivers solid performance
CapacitySafety
Total Costs vs Traffic Unit Costs
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
1,1
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
es
t
20
05
es
t
Eu
ro 2
00
2/
km
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
Total Costs (1990= index 100) Traff ic (1990=index 100)
All States in CRCO sytem Data source : EUROCONTROL
Safety
A coherent way forward must be developed, addressing:
A Europe-wide ATM safety information flow
A Europe-wide review system
Runway Incursion Prevention Plan
Capacity
Resolute action is needed to meet the rapidly growing demand.
Ireland
N o r w a y S w e d e n
United Kingdom
France
Spain Italy
Malta
Canary Is.
P o r t u g a l Turkey
Cyprus
Greece A l b FYROM
Y u g o s l a v
i a Bosnia Hungary
S
v e n i Croatia
Bulgaria
Romania Black Sea
F i n l a n d
D e n m a r k
Germany Poland Ukraine
Lithuania Latvia
Netherlands
Estonia
Belguim
Switzerland Austria M o l d o
v a Slovak Re p. Czech Rep.
Armenia
LOWER AIRSPACE
LIS
LJU BRE
ROM
LON
BOR
REI
PAR GEN
ZUR
KAR
MAS
BER
MUN
MIL
PAD
VIE BUD
PRA BRA
ZAG
MAL
MOL
BEL
BRI
TIR SKO SOF VAR
BUC
MAK
WAR UKR
VIL
RIG
TAL
TAM
ROV
BOD SUN
TRO
STA
OSL STO
SCO
SHA
MAD
COP
BAR
BAR
PAL MAR
IST
ANK
YEK
ATH MAL
NIC
CAN
SAR
BER
SEV
BRE
LON
PAR
BOR
MAN DUB
AMS
DUS BRU FRA
BRE
MUN REI
MAR
GEN
ZUR
PAD MIL
Lower Air space
BER
0%
6 – 10% 1 – 5%
11 – 20%
2005 capacity increase planned by ANSPs
IST
The Airports Challenge
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
IFR
Flig
hts
Per
Yea
r (M
illio
n)
Actual
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Scenario D
2.5 growth factor
if sufficientairport capacity
2.0 growth factor with max
achievable airport capacity
If demand keeps growing at 4.3% p.a. (scenario A), airports will severely constrain traffic growth in 2025
3.7 million unaccommodated flights/yr will cause pressure to change traffic pattern
European Air Traffic Management Master Plan
A quantum jump in ATM performance
short-term: DMEAN & management of bottlenecksmedium-term: Sector productivity / Controller toolslong-term: SESAME
2005 2010 2015 2020
2005 2010 2015 2020
Foundation
2007
DeploymentIndustrialisation
DeploymentApplied R&D Industrialisation
SES Deployment
2012
Applied R&D Industrialisation
2012
Deployment
SES Deployment
Applied R&D Industrialisation
2012
Deployment
SES Deployment
Applied R&D Industrialisation
2012
DeploymentApplied R&D Industrialisation
2012
DeploymentApplied R&D Industrialisation
SES Deployment20172017
DeploymentInnovative R&D Applied R&D Industrialisation DeploymentInnovative R&D Applied R&D Industrialisation
2017
Collaborative – High Performance ATM
DeploymentInnovative R&D Applied R&D Industrialisation
2005 2010 2015 2020
2005 2010 2015 2020
2005 2010 2015 2020
2005 2010 2015 2020
Foundation
2007
DeploymentIndustrialisation
Foundation
2007
DeploymentIndustrialisation
DeploymentApplied R&D Industrialisation
SES Deployment
2012
Applied R&D Industrialisation
2012
Deployment
SES Deployment
Applied R&D Industrialisation
2012
Deployment
SES Deployment
Applied R&D Industrialisation
2012
DeploymentApplied R&D Industrialisation
2012
DeploymentApplied R&D Industrialisation
SES Deployment
DeploymentApplied R&D Industrialisation
SES Deployment
2012
Applied R&D Industrialisation
2012
Deployment
SES Deployment
Applied R&D Industrialisation
2012
Deployment
SES Deployment
Applied R&D Industrialisation
2012
DeploymentApplied R&D Industrialisation
2012
DeploymentApplied R&D Industrialisation
SES Deployment20172017
DeploymentInnovative R&D Applied R&D Industrialisation DeploymentInnovative R&D Applied R&D Industrialisation
2017
Collaborative – High Performance ATM
DeploymentInnovative R&D Applied R&D Industrialisation
20172017
DeploymentInnovative R&D Applied R&D Industrialisation DeploymentInnovative R&D Applied R&D Industrialisation
2017
Collaborative – High Performance ATM
DeploymentInnovative R&D Applied R&D Industrialisation
Air transport delays
Improved predictability of air transport would generate high added-value
Compressing half of flight schedules by 5 minutes is worth some €1,000M p.a.
0
3
5
8
10
13
15
18
20
23
Standarddeviation ofdeparturetimes (off-
block)
Taxi out +holding
Flight times(en-route +
terminalholding)
Taxi in +holding
Standarddeviation ofarrival times(on-block)
Sta
ndar
d de
viat
ion
in m
inut
es
Variations in the individual phases of the flightSchedule
buffer
Schedule
Early arrival
OUT OFF ON IN
Buffer
Late arrival
AirborneTaxi Out Taxi In
Behind schedule
Ahead of schedule
Delay Schedule
ON Time
Buffer
Distribution of arrival time
and on-time performance
Predictability
Cost-effectiveness
Raising performance to 3rd best levels:Significant improvements(10%= €700 M p.a.)
Complexity is not an obstacle to high productivity (Maastricht, CH, NL, UK)
0.10 0.12
0.23 0.27 0.29 0.30 0.30
0.35 0.38
0.43 0.45 0.47 0.51 0.53 0.55 0.55
0.60 0.62 0.62 0.66 0.69 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.74 0.77 0.78
0.82 0.83 0.85 0.90
1.00 1.05
1.59
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
MU
AC
Sky
guid
e
LVN
L
NA
TS
DF
S
NA
VIA
IR
DC
AC
Cyp
rus
Aus
tro
Con
trol
AN
S C
R
DN
A
EA
NS
EN
AV
IAA
NA
V P
ortu
gal (
FIR
Lis
boa)
AN
S S
wed
en
Hun
garo
Con
trol
Bel
goco
ntro
l
Avi
nor
Aen
a
DH
MI
Fin
land
CA
A
HC
AA
NA
TA
Alb
ania
Cro
atia
Con
trol
LGS
MA
TS
LPS
Slo
veni
a C
AA
AT
SA
Bul
garia
RO
MA
TS
A
Oro
Nav
igac
ija
FY
RO
M C
AA
UkS
AT
SE
Mol
dAT
SA
Com
posi
te fl
ight
-hou
rs p
er A
TC
O-h
our
European system average (0.63)
1.92.3
2.82.92.9
3.43.53.53.53.53.73.83.94.04.14.14.44.5
4.84.85.0
5.85.95.9
6.56.76.9
7.27.3
8.58.68.6
11.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
DH
MI
Mol
dAT
SA
FY
RO
M C
AA
LGS
MA
TS
Oro
Nav
igac
ija
LVN
L
UkS
AT
SE
NA
TA
Alb
ania
LPS
AN
S C
R
AT
SA
Bul
garia
EA
NS
NA
TS
Hun
garo
Con
trol
DN
A
IAA
EN
AV
DF
S
RO
MA
TS
A
Sky
guid
e
MU
AC
*
NA
VIA
IR
Aus
tro
Con
trol
Cro
atia
Con
trol
Fin
land
CA
A
NA
V P
ortu
gal (
FIR
Lis
boa)
DC
AC
Cyp
rus
Bel
goco
ntro
l
AN
S S
wed
en
Avi
nor
Slo
veni
a C
AA
HC
AA
Aen
a
European system average (3.8)
18.8
Support costs: 23%
Productivity: +56%
Flight efficiency
Actual routes
Flight-efficiency, a major contributor to ATM performance
€1,000M - €1,500M p.a.
Airspace design and strategic use is the most critical element Further work is needed, involving civil and military concerned parties
Filed route (F)
Actual route (A)
Shortest route
(S)
Great Circle (G)
ATC routing
Route selection
En-route design
476 NM476 NM
480 NM480 NM
475 NM475 NM
448 NM448 NM
-1.0 -1.0 %%
1.0 %1.0 %
Direct route (D)
TMA interface
+ 28 NMEr: 6.2%
457 NM457 NM
4.2 %4.2 %
2.0 %2.0 %
Stra
teg
ic
Ta
ctic
al
Fragmentation
Causes of fragmentation costs
Fragmented planning
Piecemeal procurement
Sub-optimal maintenance/development
Communications/navigation duplication
Over-provision of secondary radar
Lack of ACC economies of scale
Constrained route & sector design
Lack of ATM system coordination
Functional Blocks of Airspace
Common Air Navigation Charging Scheme
Main features of proposed Implementing Rules
Consistency with EUROCONTROL system
Distinction between En-route and Terminal charges
Definition of « charging volumes of airspace » in consistency with ATC operations
Incentives for air navigation service providers and airspace users
NETWORK OPTIMISATION
Cooperative Network Design, Pan-European Functions
National
Pan-European
RegulationService
Provision
Air Traffic Management Success Factors
Regulation Service Provision Regulation Service Provision
RegulationService
ProvisionRegulation
ServiceProvision
RegulationService
Provision
Functional Blocks
GLOBAL PLANNING - GLOBAL CONCEPT Global
"The international aviation system can only become viable if airlines, service providers and regulators jointly address and resolve the fundamental issues.“ (source AEA)
Conclusion