1 transportation and state climate action plans: what you need to know fhwa webinar march 25, 2010
TRANSCRIPT
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Transportation and State Climate Action Plans:
What You Need to Know
FHWA Webinar
March 25, 2010
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Presentation Roadmap
1. Overview of State Climate Action Plans
2. Transportation Mitigation Strategies – Quantification Methods and Uncertainties
3. Impacts and Adaptation
4. Key Opportunities for Involvement
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What is a Climate Action Plan?
Provides Distinct Strategies to Reduce GHG Emissions from Multiple Sectors
Typical Components Emission inventory and forecast (baseline) Description of GHG mitigation strategies GHG impacts, costs, and cost-effectiveness of strategies Implementation steps Net impact of strategies, compared to baseline (BAU) forecast
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The Climate Action Plan in Context
State Climate Action Plans Typically ARE: Strategy scoping documents Sketch-level emissions analyses
State Climate Action Plans Typically ARE NOT: Fiscally constrained Constrained by current limits on implementation authority Developed by agencies that would implement the plans Analogous to LRTPs
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Status of State Climate Action Plans
CAP in progress, 5 states
EPA-funded CAP research papers, 2 states
CAP with quantified strategies
23 states
No CAP
14 states
CAP w/out quantified strategies, 6 states
Alaska IdahoKansasKentuckyNew York
DelawareMissouri
AlabamaGeorgiaIndianaLouisianaMississippiNorth DakotaNebraska
OhioOklahomaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasWest VirginiaWyoming
ArkansasArizonaCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutFloridaHawaiiIowaMaineMarylandMichigan
MinnesotaMontanaNew HampshireNew MexicoNorth CarolinaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaVermontWashingtonWisconsin
~ 17 with assistance from Center for Climate Strategies (CCS)
IllinoisMassachusettsNevada
New Jersey UtahVirginia
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600V
T
ME
MT
AK
NY
OR
UT
NM
AR
WA SC
MD IA CO WI
NJ
AZ
MN
NC MI
IL PA FL
CATo
tal
GH
G E
mis
sio
ns
Bas
elin
e F
ore
cast
(M
MtC
O2e
)
Total Forecast State GHG Emissions (BAU)
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596
7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
MN IA MI NM UT CO MT AR PA MD NC AK SC AZ CA NJ NY OR VT ME WA FL
Tra
nsp
ort
atio
n a
t P
erce
nt
of
To
tal
Fo
reca
st E
mis
sio
ns
Transportation Contribution to Total State GHG Emissions
19%
52%
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
VT IA NM FL AR SC NC MN MI AZ PA MT CO CA NJ AK NY IL ME
Fo
rec
as
t G
HG
Em
iss
ion
s (
MM
tCO
2e
)
Emissions Reduced by Plan
Total Remaining Emissions
GHG Reductions from Plan
88%
51%
26% reduction
10%
67%
46%43%
41%
14%
28% 25%78%
57%
12%
18%29%
43%44%
49%
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Mitigation Strategies in 30 CAPs
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
LDV Efficiency Improvements
Vehicle and Fuels R&D
LDV Tires
Parking, Road, and Fuel Pricing
Integrate GHGs in Decision Making
Public Education
Other
Non-road Measures
HDV Retrofit or Replacement
Pay-As-You-Drive Insurance
Freight Systems Strategies
Commuter Benefits/Trip Reduction Programs
Traffic Speed/Flow Measures
HDV Anti-idling Measures
LDV and HDV Fleet-based Measures
LDV Clean Vehicle Purchase Incentives
LDV New Vehicle Emissions Standards
Transit and Alt. Modes
Alt. Fuels/Low Carbon Fuel Standard
Smart Growth
Number of CAPs
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Effectiveness of Individual Mitigation Strategies
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
LDV New Vehicle Emissions Stds.
Alt. Fuels/Low Carbon Fuel Std.
Combined Smart Growth/Transit
Pay as You Drive Insurance
Smart Growth
LDV Clean Vehicle Purchase Incentives
Transit and Alt. Modes
Commuter Benefits/Trip Reduction
Freight systems strategies
HDV Retrofit or Replacement
HDV anti-idling measures
Non-road Measures
Traffic Speed/Flow Measures
LDV and HDV Fleet-based Measures
Percent Reduction from Transportation Baseline
Avg MaxMin
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Steps in Climate Action Plan Development (typical)1. Create Emission Inventory and Forecast (baseline)
By sector; may be done in advance
2. Form Stakeholder Groups Plenary group + 4-5 technical working groups
3. Review “Catalog” of Potential Strategies
4. Select Short List of Strategies for Evaluation Typically 6-12
5. Analyze GHG Impacts and Costs of Select Strategies
6. Formulate Strategy Implementation Steps
7. Calculate Combined Impact of All Plan Strategies
8. Final Report
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Questions?
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Part 2: Transportation Mitigation Strategies – Quantification Methods
and Uncertainties
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Real Impacts of CAP Strategies
Actual GHG Reductions Will Depend On: Enactment of strategies (Hurdle #1) Implementation of strategies (Hurdle #2) Variables that determine impact (Hurdle #3)
Sources of Uncertainty Arise at Each Hurdle
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Requirements for Enactment (Hurdle #1)
• Public funding
• Legislation or rulemaking
• Major public agency initiative
• Private industry collaboration
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Requirements for Enactment (Hurdle #1)
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External Factors Affecting Implementation (Hurdle #2)
Factor Source of Uncertainty for
Commercial Availability of Technology
Alternative fuel and technology strategies
Local Government Action or Coordination Among Government Agencies
Smart growth strategies, Infrastructure for bicycles, pedestrians, and transit
Market Forces Transportation pricing strategies, Transit strategies
Land Use Changes Smart growth strategies
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Variables that Determine Impact (Hurdle #3)
Variable Source of Uncertainty for
Affected population Anti-idling strategies
Market Penetration Most strategy types, except where penetration rate is mandated
Effectiveness Traffic Speed/Flow strategies, Smart growth strategies
Timing Strategies including large capital investments, such as Smart growth strategies, Transit strategies
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Quantification Techniques
• Apply empirical results from studies of similar measures
• Set a reduction goal, supported by a local feasibility study
• Set a reduction goal, not supported by a local feasibility study
Less
cer
tain
ty
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Smart Growth Strategies in CAPs
Key questions Will envisioned land use changes occur in the projected timeframe? Will travel patterns change with land use as predicted?
Quantification approaches in sample states Apply local results from regional land use scenario modeling Apply non-local results from regional land use scenario modeling Establish goals without a supporting feasibility analysis
Estimated reduction in VMT in sample states: 2% to 9%
Le
ss c
ert
ain
ty
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Traffic Speed/Flow Strategies in CAPs
Traffic Smoothing Primary uncertainties are the specific changes to the system
and how they affect traffic flow Quantified based on an emissions goal Estimated transportation GHG reductions in sample states:
0.1% to 0.2%
Speed Limits Key question: How will changes in speed limit or enforcement
change travel speeds? Quantified using rule-of-thumb on speed vs. fuel economy Estimated transportation GHG reductions in sample states:
0.3% to 1.0%
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Alternative Fuel Strategies in CAPs
Low Carbon Fuel Standards – mandated reduction in amount of carbon per unit of energy
Primary uncertainty is adoption into state law Market penetration, effectiveness, and timing are mandated Estimated GHG reductions in sample states: 6% to 19%
Individual Alternative Fuels – goals for market share Typical policies increase market share of ethanol and/or
biodiesel Primary uncertainty is lifecycle GHG impacts of fuels and
feedstocks Estimated GHG reductions in sample states: 0.2% to 2.3%
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Questions?
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Part 3: Impacts and Adaptation
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State Climate Change Adaptation Plans
Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, “Adaptation Planning – What U.S. States and Localities are Doing”, August 2009
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Adaptation Working Groups
Public Health Biodiversity and Habitat Ocean and Coastal Resources Water Management Agriculture Forestry Transportation and Energy Infrastructure *
Public Infrastructure * Health & Culture Natural Systems Economic Activities
Built Environment, Infrastructure and Communities *
Human Health and Security Ecosystems, Species, Habitats Natural Resources
Existing Built Environment and Infrastructure
Future Built Environment and Infrastructure
Resource and Resource-based Industries
Human Health, Safety and Welfare
* Includes state DOT
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Impact and Adaptation – Approaches
Vulnerability Assessment Identifies existing stressors facing transportation
systems and projects how climate change will introduce new stressors in the future
Risk Assessment Evaluates the likelihood and consequence of
climate-related impacts on transportation
Adaptation Transportation management options available for
effectively adapting to climate change impacts
Most state plans have not advanced beyond
vulnerability
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Adopted Strategies – Examples
Alaska PI-1: Create a Coordinated and Accessible Statewide System for Key Data
Collection, Analysis, and Monitoring PI-2: Promote Improvements that Use the Current Best Practice PI-3: Build to Last; Build Resiliency into Alaska’s Public Infrastructure
California Develop a detailed climate vulnerability assessment and adaptation plan for
California’s transportation infrastructure Incorporate climate change vulnerability assessment planning tools, policies,
and strategies into existing transportation and investment decisions. Develop transportation design and engineering standards to minimize climate
change risks to vulnerable transportation infrastructure. Assess environmental impacts from climate change in rehabilitating the
transportation system and siting of new transportation projects Incorporate climate change impact considerations into disaster preparedness
planning for all transportation modes.
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Questions?
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Part 4: Key Opportunities for Involvement
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6 Points Where Involvement is Important
1. Formation of Stakeholder Groups
2. Inventory and Forecast (Baseline)
3. Selection of Strategies
4. Strategy “Design”
5. Quantification of Strategy Impacts
6. Identification of Implementation Steps
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1. Formation of Stakeholder Groups
Working groups make recommendations to a plenary group (CAT, CAG, etc.)
Transportation TWG usually includes the DOT and/or MPO
Plenary group does not usually include DOT or MPO
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2. Inventory and Forecast (Baseline)
Pay attention to growth factors for forecast years
On-road gasoline and diesel forecast based on VMT projections DOT vs. MPO projections
Little or no uncertainty High uncertainty
MMtCO2-eq1990 1991 1992 2003 2004 2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020
Motor Gasoline 19.38 19.69 20.06 … 23.83 24.10 23.74 1.1% 1.2% 0.8%Onroad Distillate Fuel 4.05 4.24 4.75 … 6.94 7.44 7.48 3.4% 3.4% 2.7%Rail Distillate Fuel 0.84 0.72 0.57 … 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Jet Fuel 8.06 7.79 8.98 … 6.95 7.64 7.61 0.8% 0.5% 0.4%Aviation Gasoline 0.11 0.09 0.10 … 0.08 0.07 0.10 1.5% 1.4% 1.2%Residual Fuel 2.54 2.65 2.65 … 2.71 2.87 3.01 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%Natural Gas 0.28 0.28 0.17 … 0.37 0.49 0.47 16.7% 9.9% 5.9%LPG 0.07 0.05 0.05 … 0.02 0.02 0.02 8.7% 5.6% 4.7%
Growth Factors
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3. Selection of Strategies
Catalog of Policy Options(30-50 options)
High Priority List(8-10 options)1. Vehicle technology
2. Vehicle operation3. Alternative fuels4. Smart growth5. Demand management6. System efficiency7. Non-road
Balloting analysis
Multiple options may be “bundled” during or after balloting Details on individual strategies may be lost
Backtracking discouraged Decisions are made on which strategies to include before analysis is done
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4. Strategy “Design”
Numeric goals for strategy effectiveness
Examples: Reduce light-duty VMT by 2% statewide by 2020 Reduce fuel consumption from extended (overnight) idling of heavy-duty vehicles
50% by year 2012 and 95% 2020 By 2010, all employers covered by a transportation authority with more than 100
employees will offer a commuter benefits program By 2010, ensure that 50% of employers who provide leased parking spaces to
employees will offer parking cash-out. By 2020, 20% of drivers will be covered by mileage-based automobile insurance Increase the bicycle and walking mode share (all trips) in urban growth areas to
15% by 2020
Quantification of GHG impacts often directly tied to design goal Make sure Design Goals are realistic
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5. Quantification of Strategy Impacts
Questions to consider when reviewing quantification Is impact quantified based on strategy goal? If so, is the goal supported
by research? What segments of travel are affected? (e.g., light-duty vehicles only,
urban VMT only) Are offsetting emissions quantified? (e.g., increase in transit emissions) Are strategy overlaps accounted for?
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6. Identification of Implementation Steps
Recommendations for policy changes, new programs, etc.
Examples: The legislature would adopt the per capita VMT reduction goals and standards
outlined in the Mitigation Option Design in the 2008 legislative session Adopt Complete Streets as a policy for state roads Fund State Bicycle and Pedestrian Programs at $150 million in the first year,
expanding to meet the needs identified Provide funding for state and local government conversions of standard hybrids to
plug-in through the Energy Freedom Fund Include strategy in next TIP/LRTP
Recommendations for implementation steps often overlooked Opportunity for FHWA involvement
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Questions?
