1. trends in wheat demand · the japanese government resells imported wheat to domestic flour...

1. Trends in Wheat Demand

3

1.1 Trends in Consumption

About consumer’s expenditures, the year 2011 was the

first year for spending on bread to exceed that on rice,

and the gap has been widening ever since. - With the diversification of diet, the consumption of flour products has grown

significantly and now they can also be counted as a staple food.

Bread, Bread & Noodle and Rice: Annual Household Expenditures (2000-2017)(yen)

Data: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “Family Income and Expenditure Survey”

Reference 1

40,256

38,293

36,593 37,256 37,294

32,896

30,967 30,679 31,230 30,495

28,610 27,425

28,731 28,093

25,108

22,981 23,522 23,681

27,512 26,358 26,750 27,189 27,610

26,253 26,559 27,096 28,220

28,964 28,177 28,321 28,282 27,974

29,210 30,507 30,294 29,957

46,201

43,611

45,036 45,441 45,722

42,915 42,851 43,510

46,205 47,387

46,224 46,557 45,845

45,144 46,505

48,254 47,900 47,257

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bread & Noodle

(2011)

Rice

Bread

4

1.1 Trends in Consumption

In recent years, annual per capita wheat consumption has

been stable between 32 kg and 33 kg.

Reference 2

(Kg)

Data: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries ”Food balance sheet”

Annual per capita wheat consumption (1960-2017)

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1960：25.8Kg

2017：33.1Kg

1966：31.3Kg

5

1.2 Features of the Japanese Wheat Market

Wheat is processed into many products such as bread,

noodles and confectionery products.

Contentof Protein

(%)approx.

Products

BreadsChinesenoodles

Gyoza(chinese dumpling)

Japanesenoodles

Cakes

Cookies

TempuraJapanese sweets

Pasta

Spaghetti

Reference 3

semi-softsoft semi-hard harddurum

semolina

6

1.2 Features of the Japanese Wheat Market

To maintain the overall quality of wheat flour made from non-

uniform materials, they typically blend two to four kinds of

different classes and adjust the blending while milling.- They may even blend wheat flour for the final quality adjustment. In this way, flour

millers in Japan meet the demanding and diverse needs of flour processors.

Data: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries

Uses of flour by “Type” and “Grade” (example)

1st grade

2nd grade

3rd grade

(Last grade)

color

creamy

white

grey

Contentof ash

0.3-

0.4%

0.5%

1.0%

2.0-

-3.0%

soft medium-soft semi-hard hard

High-quality

Breads

Chinese noodles, Breads

High-quality noodles

“Somen” ”Hiyamugi”Cakes,Cookies,

Tempura flour Plain white bread

BreadsJapanese noodles,Chinese noodles,

Crackers

“Fu”(wheat gluten cake),

Gluten, StarchGlue, Adhesive for plywood

(not for food)

(grade)

Reference 4

7

1.3 Safety

The milling Industry’s basic stance has been that we

cannot use raw materials that are unacceptable to the

market.

New Plant Breeding Techniques (NPBT) such as genome

editing have been under development.

- When the handling in each country falls apart, it will cause great confusion, so we are

thinking to encourage stakeholders to create international harmonization.

- We would very much like to see wheat producers take the end users’ wishes, meaning

the expectations of Japanese consumers, fully into consideration in addressing this

issue.

Reference 5-1

8

1.3 Safety

The next issue is about wheat admixed with buckwheat

and soybean, which may cause food allergies.- Regarding buckwheat, which may cause serious damage to some Japanese people,

we are grateful that the number of admixture incidents has significantly decreased

thanks to hard work by all parties concerned.

Reference 5-2

2. Trends in wheat Supply

10

2.1 Wheat Imports

The Japanese government annually imports about 4.5–5.6 million

tons of wheat, comprising seven classes, from the U.S., Canada and

Australia, which are steady suppliers of good quality wheat.


Amount of Imported wheat for food by class(Thousands of tons)

Year Brand name 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

U.S.

Western White 755 867 820 610 775 683 631

Hard Red Winter 745 880 980 727 855 790 807

Dark Northern

Spring1,391 1,507 1,246 877 1,245 850 831

other 1 3 0 28 1 3 6

Subtotal 2,891 3,257 3,046 2,242 2,877 2,327 2,276

Canada

Western Red Spring 779 1,049 1,037 1,228 1,258 1,527 1,547

Durum 190 272 170 210 222 219 193

other 1 1 1 3 3 1 1

Subtotal 969 1,321 1,207 1,438 1,484 1,747 1,742

Australia

Standard White 966 911 870 759 794 737 755

Prime Hard 129 122 101 83 83 84 64

Other - - 0 2 0 28 15

Subtotal 1,095 1,033 971 844 877 848 833

Other 2 4 4 6 7 7 8

Total 4,958 5,616 5,229 4,532 5,245 4,929 4,858

Reference 6

11

2.2 Domestically Grown Wheat

Planted wheat acreage in Japan has trended flat for some

time. In recent years, the Japanese wheat crop has

averaged around 800,000 tons per season.- Trades are executed between producers’ groups and milling companies.

- The popularity of domestically produced wheat has also been increased as quality

having been improved.


（thousandtons）（thousand hectares）

Changes in Amount of Crop and planting Area of Domestic Wheat

Reference 7

881

674

571

746

858 812

852

1,004

791

905

209 208 207 212 209 210 213 213 214 212

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Amount of Crop Planting Area

12

2.3 Prices

The Japanese government resells imported wheat to

domestic flour millers at the weighted average import

price foe the previous six months, plus a markup. - That price revision occurs biannually in April and October.

Prices for imported Wheat (Average of 5 classes)

Reference 8

(yen / t)


47,160 47,860

56,710 57,720

48,780

50,130

54,990

57,260

58,590 58,330

60,070

56,640

52,610

48,470

50,690

52,510

54,370

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

Ap

r-1

0

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-1

1

Jul-

11

Oct

-11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-1

2

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-1

4

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8

13

2.3 Prices

Prices for domestically grown wheat are set through a

bidding process held in the autumn of the year prior to the

crop season.


Domestic wheat: Final bid prices

Reference 9

10

(yen / t)

72,221

65,006

52,120

66,793 64,949

71,165 69,423

66,601

62,227 63,549

93,009 91,130

98,284

128,114

97,815

58,678

54,116 57,040

54,963 58,283

61,142

55,812

48,382

56,548

45,016 47,556

50,266

55,766 53,731

56,148

93,074

83,959

48,916 46,167

52,053 50,158

53,188

47,275

52,417

41,796 44,379

41,819

46,810 45,046 46,182

76,030

49,820 47,860

57,720

50,130

57,260 58,330 56,640

48,470

52,510

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sanuki-no-yume (Kagawa)

Haruyo-koi (Hokkaido)

Kita-honami (Hokkaido)

Yume-chikara (hokkaido)

Sato-no-sora (Gunma)

Imported Wheat (Average of 5 Classes)

14

2.4 Movement of TPP11

When the agreement on TPP11 comes into force, the

markup level of only US wheat, which accounts for

half of imports, cannot be lowered.- The price of US wheat will be much expensive than those of Canada and

Australian wheat.

- There is also a concern that big impact will come out onto import of US produced

wheat.

- In order to avoid such a situation, we urge Japanese Government that it is

absolutely needed that US returning to the TPP11 and to lower the markup of US

wheat.

- We'd like to continue using US wheat that is the most stable wheat both in the

quantity and quality and we would like to take this opportunity to your continued

understanding on this matter.

Reference 10

Mark-upMark-up

MAFF purchase

price

MAFF purchase

price

45% DOWN Mark-up on Canadian and Australian

wheat will be reduced by 45% over 9

years

CA and AU wheat will become

more competitive compared

with US wheatCA and AU wheat All wheat

TPP11

3. The Future

of the Wheat Market

16

3. The future of the wheat market

Japan is expected to be faced with population aging and

birthrate decline as well as population decrease, further

advancing “dietary externalization” in terms of food

consumption.- This will result in the shift of spending from fresh food to value-added processed

food products. Specifically, bread and ready-made staple food containing a lot of

flour products.

Note:

In recent years, Japan has witnessed a growing dependence on outside sources for meals

that were previously prepared in the home.

Factors behind this trend include the increase in single-person households, progressive

demographic aging, and a diversification in lifestyles.

In response, the food industry has sought to penetrate new market segments that include

the provision or delivery of prepared meals.

These developments have been referred to in general as the “dietary externalization”.

Reference 11

17

3. The future of the wheat market

To ensure that wheat has an even brighter future as the

amazing food source,

Japan’s flour milling industry will make its best efforts to

address an array of challenges.

We sincerely look forward to enjoying continued access

to a steady supply of high quality and safe wheat from

USW, the sponsor of this conference.

Reference 12

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1. trends in wheat demand · the japanese government resells imported wheat to domestic flour...

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