1 weather in the nextgen era- progress and challenges ahead steve abelman nws office of science and...
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Weather in the NextGen Era- Progress and Challenges Ahead
Weather in the NextGen Era- Progress and Challenges Ahead
Steve Abelman
NWS Office of Science and Technology
May 4, 2010
Steve Abelman
NWS Office of Science and Technology
May 4, 2010
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OverviewOverview
The vision of NextGen weather (only 2 slides, I promise!)
Progress toward an initial operating capabilityCapability Evaluation
Numerical Model Enhancements
Forecaster In/Over the Loop Techniques
Aviation Weather Testbed
Challenges AheadThe Transition from “NowGen” to NextGen
Product Consistency
Probabilistic Information
The vision of NextGen weather (only 2 slides, I promise!)
Progress toward an initial operating capabilityCapability Evaluation
Numerical Model Enhancements
Forecaster In/Over the Loop Techniques
Aviation Weather Testbed
Challenges AheadThe Transition from “NowGen” to NextGen
Product Consistency
Probabilistic Information
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The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen)
The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen)
NextGen is a Congressionallymandated initiative to modernize the U.S Air Transportation Systemin order to:
Increase capacity and reliability
Improve safety and security
Minimize the environmental impact of aviation
Weather impacts today:Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS)
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information
NextGen is a Congressionallymandated initiative to modernize the U.S Air Transportation Systemin order to:
Increase capacity and reliability
Improve safety and security
Minimize the environmental impact of aviation
Weather impacts today:Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS)
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information
Aviation Weather Aviation Weather TodayToday
NextGenNextGen(new requirements)(new requirements)
Not integrated Not integrated into aviation into aviation decision support decision support systems (DSS)systems (DSS)
Today’s Today’s requirements can requirements can lead to lead to inconsistent infoinconsistent info
Low temporal Low temporal resolution (for resolution (for aviation decision aviation decision making making purposes)purposes)
Disseminated in Disseminated in minutesminutes
Updated by Updated by scheduleschedule
Fixed product Fixed product formats (graphic formats (graphic or text)or text)
““Stovepipes”Stovepipes”
Totally integrated Totally integrated into DSSinto DSS
Updated Updated requirements/ requirements/ Nationally Nationally consistentconsistent
High temporal High temporal resolutionresolution
Disseminated in Disseminated in secondsseconds
Updated by Updated by events events
Flexible formatsFlexible formats
The 4-D Cube!The 4-D Cube!
***The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy
was as much as $41 billion for 2007.***
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The 4-D Weather Data CubeA Conceptual Model
The 4-D Weather Data CubeA Conceptual Model
4-D Wx Cube
CustomGraphic
Generators
CustomGraphic
Generators
Integration into User DecisionsIntegration into User Decisions
DecisionSupportSystems
DecisionSupportSystems
CustomAlphanumeric
Generators
CustomAlphanumeric
Generators
ObservationsObservations ForecastingForecastingForecastingForecasting
4D WxSAS
RadarsRadars
AircraftAircraft
SurfaceSurface
SatellitesSatellites
SoundingsSoundings
Private SectorPrivate Sector
ForecasterForecaster
Forecast SystemsForecast Systems
Forecast IntegrationForecast Integration
Statistical Forecasting Systems
Statistical Forecasting Systems
Numerical Modeling Systems
Numerical Modeling Systems
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4-D Wx Data Cube Collaborations4-D Wx Data Cube Collaborations
The FAA and NOAA are jointly developing the 4-D Wx Data Cube (Cube).
The FAA and NOAA interact with many different organizations in order show interagency cooperation as well as demonstrating Cube capability.
The following organizations are common collaborators:National Weather Service (NWS)
NOAA Global Systems Division (GSD)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lincoln Labs (MIT/LL)
Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC)
European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL)
Department of Defense (DoD)
The FAA and NOAA are jointly developing the 4-D Wx Data Cube (Cube).
The FAA and NOAA interact with many different organizations in order show interagency cooperation as well as demonstrating Cube capability.
The following organizations are common collaborators:National Weather Service (NWS)
NOAA Global Systems Division (GSD)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lincoln Labs (MIT/LL)
Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC)
European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL)
Department of Defense (DoD)
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FY10 Capability Evaluation: ObjectivesFY10 Capability Evaluation: Objectives
Since FY07, a yearly IT Demonstration (called Capability Evaluation starting in FY10) is conducted in order to exemplify progress towards the development of the Cube.
For the Cube’s FY10 Capability Evaluation, the following objectives were established:
Primary Objective: To simulate operational Cube functionality as closely as possible to show how the Cube will operate at the Initial Operating Capability (IOC), including all applicable Cube standards and any available hardware and software infrastructure.
Secondary Objective: To test performance and security of data dissemination utilizing Cube standards.
Since FY07, a yearly IT Demonstration (called Capability Evaluation starting in FY10) is conducted in order to exemplify progress towards the development of the Cube.
For the Cube’s FY10 Capability Evaluation, the following objectives were established:
Primary Objective: To simulate operational Cube functionality as closely as possible to show how the Cube will operate at the Initial Operating Capability (IOC), including all applicable Cube standards and any available hardware and software infrastructure.
Secondary Objective: To test performance and security of data dissemination utilizing Cube standards.
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FY10 Capability Evaluation: ArchitectureFY10 Capability Evaluation: Architecture
The diagram below shows the anticipated data flows for the Cube’s FY10 Capability Evaluation.
Data will be published by those participating in the Evaluation with the actual Evaluation being completed at the FAA’s William J. Hughes Technical Center.
The diagram below shows the anticipated data flows for the Cube’s FY10 Capability Evaluation.
Data will be published by those participating in the Evaluation with the actual Evaluation being completed at the FAA’s William J. Hughes Technical Center.
NOAAnet
Internet 2
Internet
William J. Hughes Technical Center
Atlantic City, NJ
MIT/LLLexington, MA
NCARBoulder, CO
AIMWashington D.C.
NWS HQ(MDL & MADIS)
Silver Spring, MD
EUROCONTROL
GSDBoulder, CO
NWS/AWCKansas City, MO
NSSLNorman OK
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Numerical Model EnhancementsNumerical Model Enhancements
NextGen requires much improved accuracy in thunderstorm forecasting for 2-12+h forecasts
NOAA producing High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) with 3km storm scale resolution
Transition from Rapid Refresh (RUC) to “operational” HRRR several years away
CoSPA depends on HRRR
NextGen requires much improved accuracy in thunderstorm forecasting for 2-12+h forecasts
NOAA producing High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) with 3km storm scale resolution
Transition from Rapid Refresh (RUC) to “operational” HRRR several years away
CoSPA depends on HRRR
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WRF-RR to HRRRWRF-RR to HRRR
Observed
13-km RUC
3-km HRRR
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Forecaster In/Over the LoopForecaster In/Over the Loop
In the era of high resolution, rapidly updating models, forecaster responsibilities will change
Some current initiatives:
Autonowcaster – convective initiation
Interactive Calibration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions or (IC4D) – nudging model output
C&V Grids into NDFD and NWS Eastern Region initiatives to use grids for TAF production
But the real progress in the last few years is the realization that change is a necessity!
In the era of high resolution, rapidly updating models, forecaster responsibilities will change
Some current initiatives:
Autonowcaster – convective initiation
Interactive Calibration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions or (IC4D) – nudging model output
C&V Grids into NDFD and NWS Eastern Region initiatives to use grids for TAF production
But the real progress in the last few years is the realization that change is a necessity!
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NOAA Aviation Weather Testbed:
Past Success:
NOAA Aviation Weather Testbed:
Past Success:
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NOAA Aviation Weather Testbed
Today:
NOAA Aviation Weather Testbed
Today: Location: Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO
Purpose: Test, evaluate, and refine new and emerging weather forecast technologies for eventual inclusion into the National Airspace System
FY10 Projects:
2010 Spring Experiment at the Hazardous Weather Testbed (Convection)
Volcanic Ash model review and evaluation
CoSPA and LAMP evaluation (2010 Spring Experiment)
Interactive Calibration in 4 Dimensions (IC4D) test and refinement
NextGen Capability Evaluation (September, FAA Tech Center)
Future Projects:
AWIPS-II OT&E
Next Generation Turbulence (GTG-N)
Location: Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO
Purpose: Test, evaluate, and refine new and emerging weather forecast technologies for eventual inclusion into the National Airspace System
FY10 Projects:
2010 Spring Experiment at the Hazardous Weather Testbed (Convection)
Volcanic Ash model review and evaluation
CoSPA and LAMP evaluation (2010 Spring Experiment)
Interactive Calibration in 4 Dimensions (IC4D) test and refinement
NextGen Capability Evaluation (September, FAA Tech Center)
Future Projects:
AWIPS-II OT&E
Next Generation Turbulence (GTG-N)
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From “NowGen” to NextGenFrom “NowGen” to NextGen
Do we have to change the FARs and other regulations to meet NextGen Requirements?
When planning for alternate airports what impact will forecasts updated every 15 minutes have?
Some of the FOC NextGen requirements are estimated here to the right
Today’s forecast operations cannot meet these requirements!
Do we have to change the FARs and other regulations to meet NextGen Requirements?
When planning for alternate airports what impact will forecasts updated every 15 minutes have?
Some of the FOC NextGen requirements are estimated here to the right
Today’s forecast operations cannot meet these requirements!
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Product ConsistencyProduct Consistency
A huge challenge for NOAA/NWS (and no doubt the Private Sector) as they serve many customer needs
Also a weather consumer challenge as we are barraged by weather data
The “SAS” definition specifies ATM decision- makers only
A huge challenge for NOAA/NWS (and no doubt the Private Sector) as they serve many customer needs
Also a weather consumer challenge as we are barraged by weather data
The “SAS” definition specifies ATM decision- makers only
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Probabilistic InformationProbabilistic Information
From the JPDO Weather ConOps: “Uncertainty in meteorological phenomena that have significant impact on system capacity is managed through the use of probabilistic forecasts. These forecasts are in a quantitative format, covering location (three-dimensional space), timing, intensity, and the probability of ALL possible outcomes…
We must work toward common definitions of words that express uncertainty
Aviation decisions are deterministic
From the JPDO Weather ConOps: “Uncertainty in meteorological phenomena that have significant impact on system capacity is managed through the use of probabilistic forecasts. These forecasts are in a quantitative format, covering location (three-dimensional space), timing, intensity, and the probability of ALL possible outcomes…
We must work toward common definitions of words that express uncertainty
Aviation decisions are deterministic
30%
“likely”
“I believe…”
“There is ahighProbability…”
“This model Indicates…”
“numerous”
From the JPDO Weather ConOps: “Uncertainty in meteorological phenomena that have significant impact on system capacity is managed through the use of probabilistic forecasts. These forecasts are in a quantitative format, covering location (three-dimensional space), timing, intensity, and the probability of ALL possible outcomes…
We must work toward common definitions of words that express uncertainty
Aviation decisions are deterministic
From the JPDO Weather ConOps: “Uncertainty in meteorological phenomena that have significant impact on system capacity is managed through the use of probabilistic forecasts. These forecasts are in a quantitative format, covering location (three-dimensional space), timing, intensity, and the probability of ALL possible outcomes…
We must work toward common definitions of words that express uncertainty
Aviation decisions are deterministic
30%