1-year Review of2018 Employment Industry Forecast

Louisiana Workforce Commission

Division of Economic Development

Louisiana State University

Methodology

1. Baseline statistical model from historical data using the MicroMatrix software (846 regional industry forecasts)

2. Review statistical forecasts by industry– Economic causes of trends– Input from Louisiana driver firms– Economic development projects and major announcements

3. Staffing patterns are applied to convert industry projections to occupations

4. Replacement rates are applied to create total demand5. In-demand occupations are identified

Mid-cycle Review

• Input from driver firms• Major economic events

– Economic Development Projects– BP Oil Spill– Health Care Reform

• Staffing Patterns• Replacement Rates

Louisiana Driver Firms

Number of firms 150

Direct Employment 218,947

Total LA Jobs Created 613,967

Direct Wages $3.2 billion

Total LA Sales Created $46.4 billion

Driver Firms

Region 1 (New Orleans)NAICS 331:

Primary Metal Manufacturing

Region 1 (New Orleans)NAICS 333:

Machinery Manufacturing

Region 1 (New Orleans)NAICS 336:

Transportation Equipment Manufacturing

Region 1 (New Orleans)NAICS 721:

Accommodation

Region 2 (Baton Rouge)NAICS 321:

Wood Product Manufacturing

Region 2 (Baton Rouge)NAICS 524:

Insurance Carriers and Related Activities

Region 2 (Baton Rouge)NAICS 920:

State Government

Region 5 (Lake Charles)NAICS 336:

Transportation Equipment Manufacturing

Region 5 (Lake Charles)NAICS 721:

Support Activities for Transportation

Region 7 (Shreveport)NAICS 333:

Machinery Manufacturing

Region 7 (Shreveport)NAICS 336:

Transportation Equipment Manufacturing

Region 8 (Monroe)NAICS 336:

Transportation Equipment Manufacturing

Region 8 (Monroe)NAICS 325:

Chemical Manufacturing

Oil Spill

• Significant short-term impact to industries that depend on the Gulf of Mexico:– Fishing, Shrimping, Oystering, Crabbing– Tourism– Oil and Gas Extraction and Support Activities

• Long term impacts remain uncertain (much more clarity after one year passes)

Health Reform

• Significant Expansion of Insurance Coverage– 16 million uninsured would purchase insurance through

exchanges by 2019– 16 million additional people on Medicaid or CHIP by 2019– Expansions alone would add $164 billion to the federal deficit in

2018– Per capita, uninsured individuals spend 60% less than insured

individuals. For the group that would gain coverage, per capita spending would rise by 25-60 percent (bringing their per capita spending to 75-90% of those already insured)

• Significant reduction in reimbursements– Changes to federal spending (including reduced reimbursements)

alone would reduce the federal deficit by $116 billion

Net Effect of Health Reform?

• The big negative and big positive effects are likely of similar magnitude

• Care within Medicare population may decrease while care will increase for the newly insured

• Downward cost pressure of reduced reimbursements will likely change the mix of workers needed

Industry Summary

• Overall effect of recommended changes is an increase in 2018 forecast for statewide employment of 2,422.

• New Orleans, Shreveport, and Lake Charles RLMAs had increases in overall forecasted employment relative to the current 2018 forecast.

• Baton Rouge, Alexandria, and Monroe RLMAs had modest decreases to the 2018 forecast resulting from this year’s review.

• Total forecasted 2018 employment for the Lafayette and Houma RLMAs remained unchanged after review.

• Changes recommended to staffing patterns

Occupational Changes

• For Ambulatory Healthcare Services and Hospitals, staffing patterns were changed to reflect:– Shift to allied health professionals– Increased IT staff to support electronic

medical records