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1. World: Evolution of confirmed COVID-19 cases, selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Worldometers, Johns Hopkins CSSE)

CAN

KOR

FRADEU

BEL

USA

Days since 1 case per million

ESP

# of people (log scale)

IND

SWE

1,000

100

10

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

2. World: Evolution of confirmed COVID-19 deaths, selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million


SWE

KOR

Days since 1 death per million

DEU

BEL

FRA

ESP


IND

CAN

USA

mailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitor



3. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries

Daily change in new cases and in total active cases, 3 day moving average (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)

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World

NBF Economics and Strategy

000 persons

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Canada

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Public Health Canada, INSPQ)

000 persons

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Belgium


000 persons

New cases (left axis) New recoveries (left axis) Active cases (confirmed – recovered – deaths, right axis)




3. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries (continued)

Daily change in new cases and in total active cases (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)

.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

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Denmark


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India


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Russia


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South Korea


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New cases (left axis) New recoveries (left axis) Active cases (confirmed – recovered – deaths, right axis)




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4. Canada: COVID-19 cases versus selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million


SWEQC


CAN

AB

BEL

BC

ON

# of people (log scale) USA

ESP

1,000

100

10

1

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

5. Canada: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million


SWE

QC


CAN

AB

BEL

BC

ON


USA

ESP




10,000

1,000

100

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170

6. Latin America: COVID-19 cases versus selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million


MEX


CAN

BRA

BEL

PER

# of people (log scale) CHL

ESP

USA

1,000

100

10

1

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

7. Latin America: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million


MEX


CAN

BRA

BELPER


USAESP

CHL




Average daily new Covid-19 cases per million population

March April May June Last 28 Days Last 7 Days

Brazil 0.9 12.8 64.9 139.1 203.8 210.1 h

Israel 19.9 40.8 4.2 31.5 180.6 169.4 i

United States 18.5 89.4 71.1 85.2 182.4 159.3 i

Spain 66.2 83.8 18.0 7.0 59.9 84.0 h

South Africa 0.7 2.4 14.7 66.6 149.7 83.5 i

Belgium 35.6 102.8 27.4 8.8 39.9 51.5 h

Mexico 0.3 4.7 18.0 35.3 50.8 48.1 i

India 0.0 0.8 3.6 9.5 37.7 44.9 h

Netherlands 23.7 52.0 13.4 7.5 20.5 35.2 h

Sweden 14.1 55.0 52.5 102.0 24.7 26.7 h

France 25.7 58.0 9.9 4.4 16.4 26.3 h

Denmark 15.9 36.2 14.0 6.3 12.9 22.4 h

Switzerland 61.8 50.0 4.8 3.3 17.0 21.4 h

Portugal 23.5 57.5 23.6 31.5 20.3 20.8 h

Austria 36.4 19.5 4.6 3.8 13.2 14.2 h

Turkey 5.2 42.2 16.7 14.2 12.2 14.2 h

Australia 5.7 2.9 0.6 0.9 16.1 13.9 i

Germany 27.6 36.3 7.9 4.8 8.9 12.3 h

United Kingdom 11.9 71.7 49.2 13.5 11.2 11.9 h

Canada 7.2 40.4 32.4 12.0 11.4 10.5 i

Norway 27.5 19.0 4.2 2.7 5.5 10.1 h

Japan 0.4 3.2 0.7 0.5 8.2 9.4 h

Italy 55.8 54.9 14.7 4.2 5.0 7.2 h

Finland 8.2 21.5 10.9 2.1 2.5 3.9 h

South Korea 4.2 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.0 h

China 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 i

Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE

7 days

compared to

28 days trend

8. World, Daily new cases per million population

0

50

100

150

200

250

BRA ISR USA ESP ZAF BEL MEX IND NLD SWE FRA DEN CHE PRT AUT TUR AUS DEU GBRCANNOR JAP ITA FIN KORCHN

Worst week before June

Current

9. World: Perspective on the current COVID-19 casesDaily cases per million people, worst week before June and current week, selected countries

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)

Cases per

million people




Average daily new Covid-19 deaths per million population


Mexico 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.7 5.0 5.3 h

Brazil 0.0 0.9 3.5 4.7 4.8 4.7 i

South Africa 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 4.0 4.0 h

United States 0.6 6.0 4.0 2.1 3.1 3.1 i

Israel 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 1.1 1.2 h

Belgium 2.0 19.8 5.2 0.8 0.4 0.7 h

India 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 h

United Kingdom 1.2 12.0 5.6 2.3 0.8 0.6 i

Australia 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 h

Portugal 0.5 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 h

Spain 5.8 11.5 1.8 0.9 0.1 0.3 h

Turkey 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 i

Canada 0.1 2.8 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.2 h

France 1.7 10.6 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 h

Sweden 0.6 7.9 5.8 3.1 0.6 0.1 i

Italy 6.6 8.6 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.1 i

Netherlands 2.0 7.3 2.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 h

Switzerland 1.6 5.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 h

Denmark 0.5 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 h

Austria 0.5 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 h

Germany 0.3 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 h

Finland 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 h

Japan 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 h

Norway 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 h

South Korea 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 i

China 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 h


7 days vs 28

days trend

10. World, Daily new deaths per million population

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

MEX BRA ZAF USA ISR BEL IND GBR AUS PRT ESP TUR CAN FRA SWE ITA NLD CHE DEN AUT DEU FIN JAP NORKORCHN


Current

11. World: Perspective on the current COVID-19 deathsDaily deaths per million people, worst week before June and current week, selected countries


Deaths per

million people






Alberta 5.0 35.2 12.1 8.3 23.1 21.8 i

Saskatchewan 5.0 5.8 7.0 3.9 17.8 15.0 i

Manitoba 2.4 4.2 0.4 0.7 7.1 13.4 h

Quebec 15.7 91.3 88.8 17.2 16.4 13.1 i

British Columbia 6.3 7.2 2.9 2.2 7.7 11.0 h

Ontario 4.3 35.0 26.3 17.2 7.9 6.6 i

Prince Edward Island 4.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.1 4.5 h

New Brunswick 2.9 2.1 0.6 1.4 0.5 0.7 h

Newfoundland 9.4 6.8 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.5 h

Nova Scotia 4.9 27.3 3.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 i

Canada 7.2 40.4 32.4 12.0 11.4 10.5 i


7 days vs

28 days

trend

12. Canada, Daily new cases per million population

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

AB SK MB QC BC ON PE NB NF NS


Current

13. Canada: Perspective on the current COVID-19 casesDaily cases per million people, worst week before June and current week


Cases per

million people




14. United States, Daily new cases per million population, selected cities



Miami-Dade 25.2 122.0 70.5 230.9 861.8 699.7 i

Houston (Harris County) 4.7 40.1 40.5 135.4 283.9 227.5 i

Los Angeles 9.7 67.1 102.1 162.2 237.5 188.2 i

Minneapolis (Hennepin County) 5.2 40.4 169.6 89.6 162.2 139.0 i

Chicago (Cook County) 28.1 207.2 259.4 81.6 114.9 128.6 h

San Francisco 14.5 41.7 39.8 38.4 124.9 116.0 i

Philadelphia 26.8 276.8 166.2 73.7 87.6 83.3 i

Seattle (King County) 33.3 57.4 27.0 30.9 72.3 66.0 i

New York City 166.8 497.2 138.6 47.5 37.7 38.6 h

United States 18.5 89.4 71.1 85.2 182.4 159.3 i


7 days

compared to 28

days trend

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Miami Houston LA Minneapolis Chicago SF Philadelphia Seattle NYC


Current

15. United States: Perspective on the current COVID-19 casesDaily cases per million people, worst week before June and current week, selected cities


Cases per

million people




16. United States, Daily new cases per million population


March April May June Last 28 Days Last 7 DaysGeorgia (GA) 11.9 70.0 63.1 107.5 327.6 319.9 i

Florida (FL) 10.1 41.8 33.5 149.4 401.3 310.9 i

Tennessee (TN) 11.3 40.7 55.8 102.2 297.9 254.4 i

Texas (TX) 4.2 28.6 40.0 113.1 277.1 231.2 i

California (CA) 6.7 35.4 50.5 100.8 210.9 204.8 i

Missouri (MO) 6.5 32.7 26.1 44.7 195.3 178.2 i

Virginia (VA) 5.3 60.0 108.7 74.5 136.8 144.6 h

Arizona (AZ) 5.7 29.2 54.4 271.5 275.7 140.1 i

Indiana (IN) 10.3 77.5 79.9 54.6 124.6 139.0 h

Illinois (IL) 15.2 123.3 171.2 60.3 120.2 135.5 h

Wisconsin (WI) 7.8 31.2 64.0 58.7 144.6 133.2 i

North Carolina (NC) 4.7 29.3 55.4 116.1 160.4 122.9 i

Maryland (MD) 8.9 110.7 165.6 81.5 132.9 121.8 i

Ohio (OH) 6.1 45.1 48.3 46.4 106.4 97.2 i

Washington (WA) 23.0 38.9 31.2 48.7 98.6 83.0 i

Michigan (MI) 24.6 107.6 43.5 26.8 71.6 74.4 h

Pennsylviana (PA) 12.5 112.0 70.9 39.1 66.5 63.1 i

Massachusetts (MA) 30.9 268.7 162.6 40.7 50.5 50.7 h

New Jersey (NJ) 67.9 375.1 151.8 42.1 40.6 46.5 h

New York (NY) 125.7 391.6 110.1 38.9 34.3 33.1 i

United States 18.5 89.4 71.1 85.2 182.4 159.3 i


7 days

compared to 28

days trend

0

100

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600

GA FL TN TX CA MO VA AZ IN IL WI NC MD OH WA MI PA MA NJ NY


Current

17. United States: Perspective on the current COVID-19 casesDaily cases per million people, worst week before June and current week, 20 most populous states


Cases per

million people




18. United States, Daily new deaths per million population

Average daily new Covid-19 deaths per million population

March April May June Last 28 Days Last 7 DaysFlorida (FL) 0.1 1.8 1.8 1.6 7.0 7.8 h

Arizona (AZ) 0.1 1.4 2.6 3.4 9.3 7.5 i

Georgia (GA) 0.3 3.2 2.8 2.4 4.8 6.9 h

Texas (TX) 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 6.8 5.9 i

California (CA) 0.1 1.6 1.7 1.6 3.1 3.1 h

Tennessee (TN) 0.1 0.9 0.8 1.2 2.7 2.7 i

North Carolina (NC) 0.0 1.3 1.6 1.4 2.3 2.2 i

Massachusetts (MA) 0.4 16.8 15.4 5.8 2.1 2.1 i

Indiana (IN) 0.2 5.3 4.9 2.5 1.6 2.0 h

Ohio (OH) 0.2 2.6 3.3 2.0 2.0 1.7 i

Maryland (MD) 0.1 6.2 7.4 3.6 1.6 1.6 h

Washington (WA) 0.9 2.6 1.3 0.9 1.4 1.6 h

Virginia (VA) 0.1 2.2 3.2 1.6 1.7 1.6 i

Illinois (IL) 0.3 5.9 7.7 4.0 1.3 1.3 h

Pennsylviana (PA) 0.2 6.3 7.8 2.8 1.1 1.3 h

Missouri (MO) 0.1 2.3 1.9 1.1 1.4 1.3 i

Wisconsin (WI) 0.1 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 i

New Jersey (NJ) 1.0 26.1 16.2 5.7 0.9 0.7 i

Michigan (MI) 0.9 12.3 5.6 1.5 0.7 0.7 i

New York (NY) 5.4 36.5 9.8 2.6 0.7 0.4 i

United States 0.6 6.0 4.0 2.1 3.1 3.1 i


7 days vs 28

days trend

0

10

20

30

40

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60

FL AZ GA TX CA TN NC MA IN OH MD WA VA IL PA MO WI NJ MI NY


Current

19. United States: Perspective on the current COVID-19 deathsDaily deaths per million people, worst week before June and current week, 20 most populous states


Deaths per

million people




-10

0

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

20. New York City: Then vs nowWeekly deaths per 100 000 population: 1918 pandemic vs COVID-19 (COVID-19 last obs.: August 2 to 8)

Weekly deaths per 100 000 population

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Wikipedia, Markel and al. Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented

During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic)

COVID-19

1918 pandemic

# of weeksWeek 1: September 14 1918/ March 14 2020

Shaded area represents length of nonpharmaceutical interventions in

1918, line represent start of measures in 2020

32.3

46.9

16.1

4.7

23.1

64.0

8.5

4.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

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90

less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over

Proportion ofpopulation

Proportion ofinfluenza andpneumonia deaths

21. United States: Perspective on pandemic related deaths

NBF Economy and Strategy (data via CDC, Census Bureau)

18.6

39.7

25.8

16.0

0.032.9

17.6

79.5

0

10

20

30

40

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90

less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over

Proportion ofpopulation

Proportion ofCOVID-19 deaths

Spanish flu (1918) COVID-19 (as of August 8)

% %

AgeAge




22. World: Perspective on trafficDifference in congestion level vs 2019, 7 day moving average (last obs.: August 3 to 9)

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Tom Tom Traffic)

Percentage points

-100

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

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-10

0

Montreal Paris Madrid Rome Stockholm Berlin Miami New York Tokyo

Worst week Now

-100

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2020M3 2020M4 2020M5 2020M6 2020M7 2020M8

23. World: Perspective on restaurant reservationsYear over year change in restaurant reservations, 7 day moving average (last obs.: August 10)

y/y change

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Open Table)

CAN

USA

DEU

Global

GBR

AUS




-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10


24. World: Back to normal indexGoogle mobility data for retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit and workplaces, 7-day mov. average

% change from baseline*

SWE

USA

CAN

GBR

FRA

ESP

*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)

DEU

-65

-60

-55

-50

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10


25. Canada: Back to normal indexGoogle mobility data for retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit and workplaces, 7-day mov. average

*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)

% change from baseline*

CAAB

QCBC

ON




-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

26. Canada: Perspective on financial stressNBF financial stress index

Stdev

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)

Lehman bankruptcy

and AIG bailout

U.S. government

credit downgrade

and Eurozone

crisis

Fear of Chinese

recession and

petrol supply

shock

COVID-19

outbreak and

OPEC/Russia oil

price war

NBF Financial Stress Index for Canada

Beta S&P/TSX financials β = cov(r,m)/var(m) calculated daily over a rolling 1- year time horizon, where r = daily percentage change in the

S&P/TSX Financials Total Returns Index. m = daily percentage change in the S&P/TSX Total Returns Index.

Financials bond yield spreadApproximated by the AA-rated long-term corporate bond yield, of which most constituents are financial issuers,

minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.

S&P/TSX equity risk premium proxyThe S&P/TSX 12-month forward earnings divided by the price of the index minus the 10-year Canadian

government bond yield.

S&P/TSX historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the S&P/TSX.

USD/CAD historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the USD/CAD exchange rate.

BBB rated corporate bond yield spread BBB rated long-term corporate bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.

Provincical spread Long-term provincial government bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.

Source: NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)

Variables Estimation




.

.

mailto:[email protected]

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