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    The American government is staring at a big problem ahead. Come 17 October, and it will hit the debt ceiling set by the American Congress. If this

    happens it will have global implications. Given that, it is important to understand what the debt ceiling really means and how it can impact the whole

    world.

    So what is the debt ceiling?

    The American government, like almost every government in the world, spends more than what it earns. The difference between what it spends and

    what it earns is met through borrowing money. There is an overall limit to the amount the American government can borrow. This limit is currently

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    10 things you should know about the US debt ceiling

    by Vivek KaulOct 9, 2013

    #American Treasury Secretary Jack Lew#Barack Obama#Debt Ceiling Crisis#HowThisWorks#John Boehner#US#US Debt Ceiling

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    set at $16.69 trillion.

    So what will actually happen on 17 October?

    The American Treasury Secretary Jack Lew (equivalent of the finance minister in India) has said that on 17 October, the Treasury department will

    run out of the extraordinary measures it had put in place to ensure that the government doesnt cross the debt ceiling of $16.69 trillion. Since May

    2013, Lew has taken a number of extraordinary measures, like delaying pension fund payments, to ensure that the government expenditure remain

    under control and hence, the government does not cross the debt ceiling.

    So the American government will run out of money on 17 October?

    The answer to this question is not very clear. Lew has said that as on October 17,the government will be left to meet our countrys commitments

    at that time with only approximately $30bn.

    And this amount will not be enough to meet expenditures of the government, which on certain days can be as high as $60 billion. He has not

    clarified the exact expected expenditure of the American government as on October 17. Hence, we dont know if the American government will

    run out of money on October 17.

    So when will the American government actually run out of money?

    There are various estimates going around on this. Most analysts agree that the government wont run out of money on 18 October, and will keep

    chugging along for a brief while.

    The Bipartisan Policy Center expects this date to be anywhere between 22 October and 1 November.

    As it points outUpdated data on Treasury cash flows through the first week of October show that the range for the Bipartisan Policy Centers

    (BPC) X Date the date on which the United States will be unable to meet all of its financial obligations in full and on time has narrowed to

    between October 22 and November 1.

    Economists at JP Morgan have come up with a more precise date of October 24th. As an article on Time.compoints out They (i.e. the

    economists at JP Morgan) write that it is extremely unlikely the Treasury will be able to make its payments more than a few days after the 24th,

    and that the Treasury would most certainly have to default on some payments by 1 November, when large outlays for Social Security, Medicare,

    retirement benefits for military and civil services workers, and interest payments are due.

    What will happen on 17 October? AFP photo

    So what will be the impact of this?

    The expenditure of the American government will be greater than its income. Until now it has been able to borrow money to finance the gap. It

    wont be able to borrow any more. Given that, it will have to cut down on its expenditure.

    As Eric Posner writes on Slate.com:

    If the debt ceiling is not raised, and the executive branch stops borrowing, the government will need to cut spending by about 15 to

    20 percentor almost 40 percent of spending on everything (yes, Medicare and defense) other than the interest on the debt.

    The impact of the cut in expenditure will be immediate. As Henry J Aaron writes in The New York TimesA decision to cut spending enough to

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    avoid borrowing would instantaneously slash outlays by approximately $600 billion a year. Cutting payments to veterans, Social Securit

    benefits and interest on the national debt by half would just about do the job. But such cuts would not only illegally betray promises to

    veterans, the elderly and disabled and bondholders.

    Other than having economic consequences, this cut in expenditure will also have social consequences. As Mark Blyth writes in Austerity The

    History of a Dangerous Idea in a slightly different context but still applicable in this case, Seventy-two percent of the working population(in

    America) live paycheck to paycheck, have few if any savings, and would have trouble raising $2000 at short notice. There are, as far as

    we can tell, about 70 million handguns in the United States. So what would happen ifno paychecks were being paid out?

    Hence, cutting expenditure can have dramatic social and economic consequences.

    So why is the American government doing nothing about this?

    As must be clear by now the consequences of the American government hitting the debt ceiling and not being able to meet its expenditure, will be

    disastrous. Given this, why hasnt the government done something about it? Why havent they increased the debt ceiling?

    The answer lies in the fact that the two houses of the American Congress are currently in a logjam. The House of Representatives is dominated by

    the Republican Party and the Senate is dominated by the Democratic Party. And both the parties are refusing to talk to each other. The

    Republicans believe that fiscal profligacy of the American government has gone on for too long and needs to be reined in.

    In fact, many Republican Congressmen are not concerned about the debt ceiling at all. As Senator Richard Burr recently said Im not as

    concerned as the president is on the debt ceiling, because the only people buying our bonds right now is the Federal Reserve. So its like scaring

    ourselves.

    So are Republicans right on only the Federal Reserve buying government bonds?

    This statement has been true in the recent past. The Federal Reserve of United States, the American central bank has been printing money to buy

    American government bonds. This helps the government finance its fiscal deficit. Fiscal deficit is the difference between between what a

    government earns and what it spends.

    But Burrs statement does not take into account the fact that foreign countries hold nearly $5.6 trillion of American government bonds. In

    comparison, the treasury holds bonds worth $1.93 trillion. These bonds were issued by the American government to borrow money to finance its

    fiscal deficit.

    Interest on these bonds needs to be paid. Also, maturing bonds needs to be repaid. The American government has reached a stage, where it pays

    the interest on bonds as well as repays maturing bonds, by raising money by selling new bonds and taking on more debt. Any decision to stop

    paying interest on bonds or default on maturing bonds, will lead to a global financial crisis.

    As Posner writes: If he(i.e Obama) stops interest payments, the United States will default. This will not only raise interest payments

    costing taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollarsbut could spark a financial panic like the meltdown of 2008.

    The US government bonds are the ultimate risk free asset. If the government defaults on interest payments and/or principal repayment, then

    investors all over the world are going to exit all kinds of financial markets. No wonder China which holds more than a trillion dollars of American

    government bonds is worried. The Chinese Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao recently saidWe naturally are paying attention to financial

    deadlock in the U.S. and reasonably demand that the U.S. guarantee the safety of Chinese investment there.

    So that brings us back to the question why arent Republicans and Democrats talking?

    This basically boils down to the fact that Republican Congressmen seem to be confident that the government is in a position to work its way around

    the debt ceiling. As Senator Orrin Hatch recently said: I think the administration could work on who gets paid and who doesnt in a way thatwould pull us through.

    It is easy to ask the government to prioritize payments, but anything done around those lines could have serious legal implications.

    It needs to be pointed out that there are no legal provisions to decide which expenditure should be cut first.

    There is no clear legal basis for deciding what programs to cut. Defense contractors, or Medicare payments to doctors? Education

    grants, or the F.B.I.? Endless litigation would follow. No matter how the cuts might be distributed, they would, if sustained for more tha

    a very brief period, kill the economic recovery and cause unemployment to return quickly to double digits, Aaron points out in The New

    York Times.

    The politicians on both the sides are also taking it easy because the markets havent reacted to this lack of communication between the two politica

    parties on the debt ceiling. As Senator Hatch put it I dont think the markets have been spooked so far, and I personally believe that if they

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2013/10/07/republican_senator_we_can_crash_into_debt_limit_because_the_only_people.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304441404579121353213485532.html?mod=rss_US_Newshttp://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2013/10/07/republican_senator_we_can_crash_into_debt_limit_because_the_only_people.html
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    realized there was a legitimate attempt to make the government work, they would be less likely [to be spooked].

    So why havent the markets reacted?

    The debt ceiling has been in place since 1939. And since then the American Congress has raised it numerous times to allow the government to

    borrow more. As an article in the Christian Science Monitorpoints outAn overall cap on federal debt has been in place since 1939, and

    Congress has raised it numerous times since then. The Treasury Department counts 78 times since 1960.

    What has happened 78 times is also likely to happen one more time.

    This explains why the various financial markets in America and around the world continue to remain stable and are not taking into account thepossibility of another crisis.

    As Bill Gross manager of the worlds biggest bond fund, told Bloomberg Television The odds of a default are a million-to-one as the Treasury

    Department will be able to take other measures to ensure it is servicing the countrys debt.

    Hence, the market is currently expecting the Republicans and the Democrats to sit down and solve the problem before October 17.

    So will the markets continue to remain stable?

    Thats a tricky question to answer. The closer we get to 17 October without any solution in sight, the more the stability of the markets will be

    threatened. In fact, if the American stock market falls it might even get the Republicans and the Democrats to start talking.

    As John Cassidy of The New Yorkermagazines writes on his blog If the market fell by, say, three or four hundred points for three days in a

    row, and then lurched down another eight hundred points, or even a thousand points, the effect would be salutary. How can I say that?

    Tens of millions of Americans would grow alarmed about their 401k plans. On Wall Street, there would be margin calls, liquidity runs,

    and other disturbing developments that inevitably accompany market breaks. Rumors would start to spread about the health of various

    financial institutions. You dont have to subscribe to a tail-wags-the-dog view of finance and politics to believe that this would lead to a

    rapid change of thinking, and of behaviour, in Washington.

    This will get the two sides talking on the debt ceiling for sure.

    Vivek Kaul is a writer. He tweets @kaul_vivek

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    Sumit

    I mustthank you for this great comprehensive clear and simply written article. Very simply written easily understandable.!

    6

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    An urag

    good one

    4

    kuriakose

    Simplification spoils the spirit of economics

    3

    Sridhar Garikipati

    Explained in a most simpler way, good article.

    5

    Siddiq

    Thanks vivek, for explaining in a very simple and effective manner. The need of the hour is economists/journalists/writers write

    more on the ponzi schemes of the governments in particular in a simple languages understood by the masses. The

    governments are running these ponzi schemes on the ignorance of the masses, this ignorance stems from the fact that not

    everybody is from an economics background. And these ponze scheme operators using complex sounding teminology(ex.

    Quantitative Easing) to make it appear as something with lot of theory behind but if the same is explained "print money and

    distribute to banks" there would atleast be some revolt or anguish or apprehension in the general public.

    Modern Banking is also one such ponzi scheme. Hope to see some thought provoking article on "The Modern day Banking" by

    you some day.

    It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and money system, for if they did, I believe there

    would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. Henry Ford, founder of the Ford Motor Company.

    8

    The Dude

    Insightful, articulate and comprehensive writing by Mr Kaul as always! Can you please hold a masterclass for some of the othe

    FirstPost "writers" so that they stop pushing out inane BS masquerading as 'insights'/news.

    4

    Bharat Bhakta

    Very informative Article by Vivek...As always..Are u suggestin that we are sitting on a tickin bomb?

    Vivek Kaul

    I think they will resolve it. The consequences of not resolving it are too explosive...The Republicans ultimately need to go

    back to the electorate.

    1

    Bharat Bhakta

    They will surely but isnt this just delaying the inevitable...This debt celing coupled with QE.....Is it another bubble?

    ndd

    knowing that US is profligate and if it defaults why should investors exit from other markets. should it not be that investors of US

    should lose faith in US and run to other markets. over the last few quarters it is being reported that even if US economy

    improves than investors run to safer shores namely US, even if they default still they will exit other markets this is not

    understood.

    in india our industrialists are very eager to lose faith in economy and invest abroad.

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    same.

    ultimately as long as you raise debt to pay interest, and earlier debts what does it reflect of the country. in india the savings rate

    is 50 to 60% whereas 72% americans live on paycheck to paycheck. here people survive even if they don;t get any paycheck b

    doing odd jobs and there every body is worrried about social effects

    so why does every body get so spooked about US and instead reflect on their wrongs and in general stop giving this importanc

    that every time US sneezes the world gets cold and reduce the dollar hegemony of the world.

    Siddharth

    That's because most of the big governments have heavily invested in US Treasury paper. Should US default, that would

    severely erode their balance sheets and result in a avalanche of crises across global financial markets.

    ComicProject

    Obama is such an idiot, just pass an ordinance...MMS goes to the US and doesnt give Obama any good advice

    10

    letsdiscuz

    Great Post, Vivek. Thanks for the information.

    3

    Siddharth

    Thanks for the article, Vivek. What impact do you foresee on the Indian stock markets should the debt ceiling be raised (which I

    think is the most probable option)?

    2

    Rachit Gupta

    Nice article. Can you also explain why did they decided to have a limit or why don't they just remove the limit when it is evident

    that there is no significance of having it

    1

    Vivek Kaul

    Its a political which each side uses to blackmail the other side. As far as I understand the American constitution does

    not have a provision for a debt ceiling

    2

    Vivek Kaul

    I meant political tool

    1

    Raveesh Kote

    Great one Vivek!!! I have one doubt. You mention that most of the governments spend more than they earn. And to borrow

    money they issue bonds for which interest needs to be paid. They pay the interests for the existing bonds by issuing more

    bonds (I understand govt will have income source as well but atleast some percentage will go for this). So the govts across the

    world are running ponzi schemes?

    6

    Vivek Kaul

    Yes governments around the world are running Ponzi schemes. You are right.

    18

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    Why Muslim faces in Mod is K anpur rally may not turn

    into votes

    u people talk as if india's destiny is in hands

    of muslims only and hindus r just to feed the muslim

    Kanpur Rally: Narendra Modi unveils a new strategy

    I remember that way back in 2004 or sometime

    around that, Modi commented on rahul gandhi "he is not

    Kanpur rally: Is Modi a hoax or is he for real? The

    doubt lingers

    Modi is hoax or Real, we don't know but we know

    90 percent media is offers paid service, Pay Per

    In the Modi vs Rahul clamour, real issues are missed

    Wah Mr. Patel. Your syndicated articles which

    appear in Pakistan tribune as well, are

    Ayus h

    If the governments around the world are running on Ponzi schemes and running on borrowed money then who i

    the ultimate beneficiary ?

    Niraj Upadhyay

    the 1%!! why?? because they sit at the top of the ponzi scheme!

    1

    SM

    Excellent piece. Thanks Vivek

    Suffering S aint

    another great article Vivek

    1

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    Debt ceiling absurdity: How the US Fed is running a ponzi scheme

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    The theory that caused the financial crisis, gets a Nobel prize

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