100% Clean Renewable

Electricity for New Mexico

Nov 2018

Tom Solomon

350NewMexico.org TASolomon6@gmail.com

At UNM Nov 10, 2018

Middle Rio Grande Regional

Water Advocates 18th Council 1

Find this presentation at:

350NewMexico.org/RPS bill

Clean Renewable Electricity

…Defined

Means electricity from

non-polluting Wind,

Solar and Geothermal

sources.

The RPS or Renewable Portfolio Standard is

the % of electricity generated from these

clean energy sources, required by state law.

How will this benefit New Mexico?

2

Clean Renewable Energy Means

Economic Growth & Better Health

It will help New Mexico: grow our economy,

preserve a livable climate and make the state a

healthier place to live.

How? A bold new Renewable Portfolio Standard

(RPS) for electricity, with new legislation in 2019.

Requiring clean renewable electricity has

NO IMPACT on oil jobs or oil revenue. Because

oil is not used in NM to generate electricity.

And <7% impact on natural gas production, the only

portion used for NM electricity.

3

link

Why

100% Clean Renewable Energy?

4

86% Support More Clean Energy

5 http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/05/americans-strongly-favor-expanding-solar-power-to-help-address-costs-and-environmental-concerns/

• HUGE majorities

support expanding

Solar and Wind

energy, by 7:1

• Including 75% of

Trump voters

• As popular as turkey

on Thanksgiving

• And strong majorities

oppose expanding

fossil fuel and nuclear

energy.

June 2016

Gallup Poll on Global Warming

6

The young people get it

Gallup Poll May 11, 2018

Wind & Solar Costs Down >67% Now: Cheapest Source of Electricity

“On an LCOE* basis, onshore wind is the cheapest

form of electricity; utility-scale thin-film solar PV is the

second cheapest.” – Lazard Investments & Banking

7 https://www.lazard.com/media/450337/lazard-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-110.pdf/ *LCOE = levelized cost of energy

Wind costs dropped

67% over 8 years

Solar costs dropped

86% over 8 years

Source: Lazard, Nov 2017

2.3¢/kWh

PPA <2.1¢/kWh

Warming is Happening Now

2017 – Second warmest year on record

2018 – Trending similar to 2015 (~4th hottest) 8

2017:

2nd hottest

year ever

recorded

and the

warmest

non-’El

Nino’ year

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

CO2 Levels: Higher Now Than

Any Time in Human History

CO2

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators/

Modern

Humans

evolve

9

All of human history. Until now.

‘Now’

http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

NASA.gov

2018

450

CO2 is a

heat-trapping

greenhouse gas

Heat Waves & Drought Increase Wildfires

Hot, dry & windy conditions make

everything on the ground flammable.

Drought kills trees, creating dry fuel.

The 2018 Carr Fire near Redding, CA

burned 230k acres, killed 8, created

monster fire tornados and destroyed

over 1,077 homes. Cost = $1.7B

10 https://www.redding.com/story/news/2018/08/04/pg-e-employee-becomes-seventh-carr-fire-fatality/909483002/

Fire Destroys CA Town of 27,000 Nov 9

11

Hurricane Florence Hits N. Carolina

12

Sept 2018. Then Hurricane Michael in Oct 2018.

93% of global warming goes into the oceans.

Warmer waters:

• Make hurricanes stronger. Cat 1 => Cat 3

• Make hurricanes last longer as they move north

• Increase evaporation causing more rainfall

• Increase air’s moisture capacity causing more rainfall

And the melting arctic ice is slowing the Jet Stream so

hurricanes slow and stall over land, causing more rainfall

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/9/12/17850646/hurricane-florence-flooding-rain-climate-change-warmer-ocean

Our Current Path: 450ppm by ~2035

13

CO2

Dr. Charles Keeling 1928-2005

450ppm CO2 is cited as driving dangerous 2.0C warming

Dr. Hansen’s limit

2035

450 450

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

Citation for 450ppm being the trigger for 2C:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-will-cross-the-climate-danger-threshold-by-2036/

Worldwide emissions = 41GT/year of CO2

Future Warming, by Degree

14 http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/booklets/warming_world_final.pdf (2011)

* http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/07/150721-james-hansen-sea-level-rise-climate-change-global-warming-science/

Decade Warm-

ing °C

% Loss

in Crop

Yields

Commentary

2020’s +1°C -10% 2x-4x worse wildfires, drought in SW, coastal flooding

2030’s +1-2°C -20% Major food shortages (corn, wheat); coral reefs dying;

increasing extreme weather. Miami 1m underwater.

2040’s +2°C -30% Most summers hotter than 2003 EU heat wave. 30%

of species risk extinction. Mountain ecosystems

dying. 4x-8x worse wildfires. Pervasive drought in

sub-tropics. Extensive starvation.

2050’s +3°C -40% 40%-70% species extinction; 90% of coral. Amazon &

boreal forest dieback. Decline in all cereal crop yields

in Africa. Release of CO2 & methane from permafrost,

tripling from 1.5C. Wars. Mass starvation.

2060’s +4°C -60% Game over. Ecosystem supports <1 billion people.

Climate likely past tipping points for further warming.

From: National Academy of Sciences, 2011, the US National Climate Assessment, 2014 & UK Met office

Worst case, if we don’t rapidly change course

See New York Magazine, July 9, 2017.

The Uninhabitable Earth

What Must We Do Instead?

Urgently mobilize

to convert our energy system

from fossil fuels to

carbon-free renewables.

Phase 1: Renewable Electricity

Phase 2: Renewable Transport 15

CO2 Emissions in the US

16 http://www.c2es.org/federal/executive/epa/ghg-standards-for-new-power-plants

Source:

US Energy Information

Administration

• CO2 emissions from fossil fuels must cease

worldwide before 2050 if we hope to avoid

catastrophic global warming of 1.5-2.0°C.

• The #1 source of CO2 emissions is burning

coal and natural gas to generate electricity.

CO2 is a

heat-trapping

greenhouse gas

Amend the NM ‘Renewable

Energy Act’ towards 100% RPS

Current RPS requirements peak & hold in 2020 at 20%

The proposed schedule increases the RPS to reach

50% by 2030, towards 100% by 2050.

SB312 was a 2017 bill for 80% by 2040.

It passed the Senate Conservation comm. Next in 2019.

17 https://ilsr.org/rule/renewable-portfolio-standards/2569-2/

Year RPS

2020 20%

2025 35%

2030 50%

2035 65%

2040 80%

2045 90%

2050 100%

3% per

year

Current

law,

20% Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)

is the % of electricity from renewable

sources such as wind, solar, geothermal

18 States Have Stonger RPS Policy Than NM

https://emp.lbl.gov/projects/renewables-portfolio 18

10 states have RPS significantly (>5%)

above NM’s 20%, ie

HI, CA, OR, NY, VT, ME, CO, MN, RI, CT 2017

LBNL - July 2017

CA: 100% by 2045 (as of Sept 2018)

Energy Mix: 100% Renewables

A 100% Renewable

Energy Mix for NM:

50% Wind

40% Solar (39.6%)

30.3% utility scale

5.5% residential

3.8% comm / govt

10% Geothermal

Recommended by

Stanford University

based each state’s

native resources.

19 http://thesolutionsproject.org/infographic/#nm

Energy mix for NM as recommended by published analysis for all US

States, from Stanford University www.thesolutionsproject.org.

Clean Renewable Energy # MW /yr Cost /yr Power / unit

Solar Panels

103 MW $51 M 300 W

Wind Turbines

87 MW $101 M 5 MW

Geothermal Plants 10 MW $26 M 10 MW

Yearly Total: 200 MW $178 M 9% of revenue

Summary: What to Build to Reach

100% RPS

20

For NM: 50% 40% 10%

For 30 years, (2021-2050), NM

would install on avg 200 MW/year:

This will supply the 23M MWh consumed within our state

http://thesolutionsproject.org/

Scope 2021 through 80% by 2040 (ie SB312)

Wind - install 116 MW/yr and spend $118 M/yr

Solar - install 98MW/yr and spend $69M/yr

GeoT- install 13 MW/yr and spend $31M/yr

2016 electricity revenue was $1.9B for Utilities + Co-ops. $178M is 9%

Why it will work

Old power plants must be replaced as they age. NM’s coal

plants average 40 yrs old.

PNM has confirmed plans to exit coal by 2031, closing San

Juan GS in 2022 and exiting Four Corners GS by 2031.

A strong RPS helps NM be pro-active, replacing coal with

clean renewables like solar and wind at zero fuel cost

Utilities will do the major investment, plus cities, businesses &

homeowners. Renters too, if we pass ‘community solar’.

Electricity costs will ultimately drop due to zero-fuel electricity

Known, predictable, electricity costs help companies moving into NM,

ie no fuel price increases. And modern companies (Facebook) want

clean energy.

We leverage NM’s natural advantages: available land, wind,

sun, geothermal, and an underemployed workforce

21 link

HB338

New Mexico’s Great Wind & Solar

22

#12 in Wind #2 in Solar

http://www.seia.org/map/majorprojectsmap.php

http://www.seia.org/state-solar-policy/new-mexico

728 MW Vaughn

1,112 MW 1,680 MW

New Mexico: #1 in US Wind Growth

NM #1 is in Wind Growth

NM grew 51% to 1.68GW in

2017, fastest in the US.

We are staged to >double

that by 2020, adding 1.7GW*

3000-4000 wind jobs in NM

Three major export

transmission lines:

Centennial West Clean Line

SunZia (in 2019)

SouthLine 23 Dec 27 2016: https://www.abqjournal.com/915514/gust-of-windgenerated-energy-sweeping-toward-nm.html

Apr 17, 2018: https://www.abqjournal.com/1160024/nm-tops-nation-in-wind-energy-growth.html

NM land owners receive $5M-$10M/yr

in lease payments.

* Plus 2.2GW with Corona Wind

(Oct 5, 2018)

Water Used to

Generate Electricity

In the US, the water used to generate

electricity is about as much as all farms and

about 4X the water used by US residences.

(UCS)

Thermal electric power plants powered by coal,

gas & nuclear energy boil water into steam to

drive a turbine, and use water for cooling.

The San Juan GS consumes about 4 Billion

gallons per year with the two remaining units

running, about 8,000-9,000 gallons per minute. 24 https://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/our-energy-choices/energy-and-water-use/freshwater-use-by-us-power-plants.html#.W-CMfJNKiUl

San Juan Generating Station

Summary

The clean energy sector is

booming worldwide as costs

have dropped to make solar

and wind the cheapest sources of new energy.

NM has world-class Solar, Wind & Geothermal resources

ready to develop – but we must strengthen NM’s RPS policy.

Let’s spark a NM investment boom in clean energy, bringing

thousands of good jobs – by committing our state to clean

renewable electricity: 50% by 2030 & 100% by 2050.

And remember - electricity RPS has NO IMPACT on oil jobs or oil

revenue.

Oil is not used in NM to generate electricity; <7% uses nat. gas.

25

link

Find This Presentation:

26

350NewMexico.org/RPS Bill Scroll down

to find it

UCS Study for NM at 80% RPS

Report in Oct 2017 by the Union of

Concerned Scientists, “Committing to

Renewables in New Mexico”

What is the economic impact to

New Mexico of converting to

renewable electricity: 80% by 2040?

Conclusions: replacing coal, gas

power with wind & solar:

Drives multi-$B in-state investment

Cuts carbon pollution 85%

Brings ~2400 new jobs by 2030

Improves health & cuts water use

No increase in electricity rates

27 Link: http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2017/10/Committing-to-renewables-in-new-Mexico-2017.pdf

Global Food Shortages, Then Famine

28 http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/booklets/warming_world_final.pdf 2011

https://www.abqjournal.com/1203231/animals-crops-and-people-all-suffer-amid-europes-heatwave.html

Source: The National Academy of Sciences, “Warming World”

US Corn

Tyndal says 4C by 2050

Year /

°C warming

% Loss

in Crop

Yields

2020’s / 1°C -10%

2040’s / 2°C -30%

2050’s / 3°C -40%

2060’s / 4°C -60%

Worst Case Timing

7-31-18: Europe’s Heat Wave

“German farmers expect the grain

harvest to be 20 percent smaller

than last year, with rapeseed crops

down 30 percent, as it has barely

rained during the past 12 weeks.

Potato farmers said they’re

expecting harvests to be 25 percent

smaller than last year.” Assoc. Press

Cats Kill 10,000x More Birds Than Wind

Study: fossil fuel power plants kill 35 times

more birds per GWh than wind turbines

29 http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-27/tall-buildings-are-bigger-threat-to-birds-than-wind-power

Paper: ”The Avian and Wildlife Costs of Fossil Fuels and Nuclear Power” https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2198024

Despite what the Heartland Institute wants you to think

NM Solar Industry Has 2,522 Jobs as of 2017

The Solar Foundation

reported in 2017

New Mexico has:

76 Solar companies

2,522 solar industry

jobs

Installers earning a

median wage of $20

per hr

30 http://www.thesolarfoundation.org/solar-jobs-census/

https://www.seia.org/state-solar-policy/new-mexico-

solar

The Benefits It Will Bring

Jobs of the future in a growing economic

sector, replacing jobs of the past.

Plus:

Cleaner air & water

Less water consumption

Healthier New Mexicans (less emphysema, asthma &

heart disease), with fewer deaths and lower health

care spending. Medicaid spending is $934M, (15%) of

the NM state budget link

Helps stop climate change

31

Where Does Electricity Come From?

32 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

US Wind Power Resource Map

33 http://www.nrel.gov/gis/wind.html http://apps2.eere.energy.gov/wind/windexchange/windmaps/resource_potential.asp

Vaughn

NM is the

closest

windy state

to California

CA needs

more wind

but will

have to

import it.

US Wind Turbine Manufacturing

34 http://energy.gov/eere/wind/wind-manufacturing-and-supply-chain

http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/09/f18/U.S.%20Wind%20Energy%20Manufacturing%20and%20Supply%20Chain%20Competitiveness%20Analysis_0.pdf

GLWN.org

Building: towers, blades, generators, gearboxes, hubs, nacelles, etc

But New Mexico is one of only three states

with no wind turbine manufacturing.

?

US Geothermal Resource Map

35

Per the USGS:

Geothermal power plants

are currently generating

2,500MW in six states:

Alaska, California,

Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada,

and Utah. The electric

power generation

potential from identified

geothermal systems is

9,057 Megawatts-

electric (MWe), over 13

states.

The mean estimated

power production

potential from

undiscovered geothermal

resources is 30,033 MWe.

Additionally, another

estimated 517,800 MWe

could be generated

through implementation of

technology for creating

geothermal reservoirs in

regions characterized by

high temperature, but low

permeability, rock

formations.

http://www.nrel.gov/gis/geothermal.html http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3082/

Lordsburg

10 MW,

Dale Burgett plant

Impacts Are Being Felt Now: wildfires, heat waves, drought, superstorms

36 http://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/climate-time-machine

Disaster 2017 Damage Est.

Hurricane Harvey $180B

Hurricane Irma $100B

Hurricane Maria $95B

California wildfires $85B

Total >$400B Los Angeles Skirball Fire, Hwy 405, Dec 2017

Nor’easter storm, Scituate MA, 5-Mar-2018

Heat Waves & Drought Increase Wildfires

Hot, dry & windy conditions make

everything on the ground flammable.

Drought kills trees, creating dry fuel.

The 2018 Carr Fire near Redding, CA

burned 230k acres, killed 8, created

monster fire tornados and destroyed

over 1,077 homes. Cost = $1.7B

37 https://www.redding.com/story/news/2018/08/04/pg-e-employee-becomes-seventh-carr-fire-fatality/909483002/

New Mexico is Back in Drought

38

60% of NM is in severe drought (Oct 4, 2018)

93% of NM is in drought. Even with Monsoons

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?NM

Hottest Temperatures Ever…

Africa – 124.3F in Algeria in July 2018

Japan – 106F (41.1C) in Kumagaya on July 23, 2018

Europe - expected to hit 118F (48C) by Aug 5, 2018

8-4-18, France halts 4 nuclear reactors – rivers too hot

39

July 5, 2018

Climate Disasters Up 3X Since 1980

40

Drought

Floods

Storms

Source: © 2018 Munich Re, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As of Jan 2018.

Insurance Information Institute https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-global-catastrophes

Number Of World Natural Catastrophes, 1980-2017 Insurance Information Institute

In the World

Report: Cost of US climate

disasters will increase 50%

to $360B/yr in next decade.

NM Fuel Savings Pay for Investment

41

Fuel savings >

spending in 2030

Fuel savings=

$211 M/yr by 2030

Net

savings

$482M/yr

CRE

*WSG= wind, solar & geothermal **In 2015 per US EIA

• New Mexico spends $482M/year on coal & gas fuel to generate electricity **

• For every 10% we add to Clean Energy, we save 10% or $48M/year on fuel.

• Fuel savings pay for all investment after 2030. Until then, net CRE

investments average $127M/yr. And savings increase every year.

• So after we reach 50% by 2030, fuel savings pay for all new RE investment.

It’s About $$

The oil, coal and gas industries are the most

profitable in human history. $2,900 B in 2013

Their profits are threatened by climate action

42 http://www.l-a-k-e.org/blog/2013/10/fossil-fuel-divestment-fastest.html 2017

What Can You Do?

Individual actions: conserve energy, go solar, buy an EV, buy local,

eat plants. And VOTE for candidates who WILL ACT ON CLIMATE.

Find your legislators- text your home mailing address to 520-200-2223

For collective action: 350.org

Six Things You Can Do

1) SIGN the petition for 100% CRE

2) CONNECT to 350NM

3) ATTEND upcoming events

4) VOLUNTEER - Fill out a volunteer form

5) RIBBONS - Join the Climate Ribbon Project

6) DONATE - at 350NM.org/contact-us/

43

Find 350NM:

On Facebook: 350 New Mexico

On the Web: www.350NM.org

On Twitter: @350NM

On Instagram: @350NewMexico

The national site: www.350.org

Drawdown: 100 Best Solutions

44 https://www.drawdown.org/solutions-summary-by-rank

350 New Mexico is the New Mexico chapter of 350.org.

We’re an international grassroots organization building a global

movement to fight climate change.

Our work: We seek an urgent and ‘just transition’ of New Mexico’s

energy economy from fossil fuels to 100% clean renewable energy, in

time to prevent global warming of 1.5-2.0°C. We work to:

Convert electricity generation to 100% renewable energy before 2050, with

50% by 2030. Close coal-fired power plants & replace with renewables.

Keep 80% of fossil fuels in the ground. Fight fracking.

Educate the public on the urgency of acting on climate, with plans to do so

Promote sustainable practices and work in coalition with like-minded groups

45

Find 350NM:

On Facebook: 350 New Mexico

On the Web: www.350NM.org

On Twitter: @350NM

On Instagram: @350NewMexico

The national site: www.350.org

History of 350.org

350.org was founded in 2008 by a group of university friends in the United States

along with author Bill McKibben, who wrote one of the first books on global warming

for the general public, with the goal of building a global climate movement. 350 was

named after 350 parts per million -- the safe concentration of carbon dioxide in the

atmosphere. May Boeve is Executive Director.

Our first actions were global days of action that linked activists and organizations around the

world, including the International Day of Climate Action in 2009, the Global Work Party in 2010,

Moving Planet in 2011. 350 quickly became a planet-wide collaboration of organizers, community

groups and regular people fighting for the future.

Today 350 works on grassroots campaigns across the globe: from opposing coal plants and

mega-pipelines, to building renewable energy solutions and cutting financial ties of the fossil fuel

industry. All of our work leverages people power to dismantle the influence and infrastructure of

the fossil fuel industry.

Some of our proudest moments of recent years include campaigns against Keystone XL and

Dakota Access in the United States, stopping fracking in hundreds of cities and states in Brasil,

joining historic grassroots mobilizations before and after the Paris Climate Agreement was signed,

and pushing hundreds of universities, foundations, cities and churches to divest from fossil fuels.

46 https://350.org/about/

Five Stages of Climate Denial

Stage 1: Deny the Problem Exists

Stage 2: Deny We're the Cause

Stage 3: Deny It's a Problem

Stage 4: Deny We can Solve It

Stage 5: It's too Late 47

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/oct/08/the-trump-administration-has-entered-stage-5-climate-denial

Drawdown: 100 Best Solutions

48 https://www.drawdown.org/solutions-summary-by-rank

NM Corona Wind

2.2 GW, 950 Turbines

Pattern Energy to begin construction on 950 wind

turbines as part of its Corona Wind Projects with a

capacity of 2,200 megawatts

Over a thousand new construction jobs and billions of

dollars in economic impact.

To be built near Corona in Lincoln County, New Mexico,

and expected to be completed by the end of 2020, the

projects are estimated to generate $3.8 billion in economic

impact for the region, hiring hundreds of workers during

construction and supporting approximately 100 jobs during

operation.

49 https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/05/new-mexico-approves-pattern-energys-2-2-gigawatt-corona-wind-projects-plan/

UNM Grant to Study Smart Grid

$20 million, five-year grant from the National Science Foundation.

The money will fund a new SMART Grid Center at UNM, which will “work

toward a novel, efficient and economical solution to enable the existing

grid infrastructure to adapt to the changes of the 21st century and

beyond”

UNM says the project includes researchers from NMSU, NM Tech, Santa

Fe Community College and the state’s two national laboratories. It also

will include private sector partnerships.

The center is “a novel, interdisciplinary research center that will address

pressing design, operational, data, and security challenges of next-

generation electric power management,” said the award’s principal

investigator, William Michener

“SMART” is an acronym for sustainable, modular, adaptive, resilient and

transactive.

50

Land & Sea Impact of Fossil Fuels

51

Oil and Gas extraction

Coal mining

Oil drilling

2017

52

Earth