100 million more people coming up? calvin l. beale

8/10/2019 100 Million More People Coming Up? CALVIN L. BEALE

1/7

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2/7

100Million

More

People

Coming

Up?

CALVIN

L.

BE ALE

EMOGRAPHERS

should

e

humble

breed.

They

have

been

wrong

in

their

predictions

about

some

majorrends

nhe

population.

Even

afterheaby

oom

fWorld

War

I,

any

opulation

nalysts

failed

o

ee

owmuch

rowthhe

UnitedStates

wasabout

toget.

They

continued

o

projectlowrates

of

future

increase

that

wouldhave

led

tono

more

than

1 66

million

people

in

1970

comparedwith

the

204.7

million

found

n

he

970

census.

Yet

ara-

doxically,whileunderestimating

total

growth,

hey

overestimated

he

future

sizeofthefarmpopulation.

The

demographic

recordsnot

all

one

f

shortsightedness,

owever.

n

the1940

YearbookofAgriculture,

two

ofhe

.S.

epartment

f

gri-

culture's

emographers

wrotefhe

need

orationalolicynural-

urban

igration.

ut

he

ation's

leadersnovernment,usiness,nd

civic

life

didnot

attempt

tocope

with

the

effects

of

the

huge

flow

of

people

outof

ruralareas

until

after

mostof

theotentialflowhadlready

aken

place.

Inny

vent,

he

well-publicized

difl&culty

thatdemographershave

had

inrojectingertainrendsasot

lostthem

theirclientele.Thequestions

continue

to

press

in.

How

many

births

will

e

ave?

ow

arge

ill

ur

population

et?

here

ill

eople

live?

Theuestionsrearticularlym-

portanttimewhenaluesnd

objectivesfheoungdultener-

ation

eem

o

e

hangingnways

that

might

affectfamily

size,

andwhen

the

technology

and

acceptance

of

birth

controlmethodsavelso

hanged.

So,he

iscussion

hatollowss

i-

rected

toa

considerationof

the

present

andfuture

size

of

theU.S.

population

and

ts

location.

TheBureauoftheCensus

estimates

that

here

were

06million

eople

living

in

the

United

States

on

January

1,

971,

aking

his

ountry

he

world's

fourthmostpopulousnation.

Aftera

periodof

rather

rapid

growth

in

he940'snd

950's,

herate

f

population

changeslowed

in

the1960's

as

thebirthrate

wentdown.

Even

so,

we

are

still

currently

adding

2

million

peopleear,

hroughhe

ombi-

nation

fnatural

ncrease

excessf

births

over

deaths)

nd

mmigration.

Arrival

of

the

populationat

the

200

million

markhasdrawn

ttention

o

theprobable

timing

oftheaddition

of

theext0 0

million.We

ave

lso

seena

rapidriseof

interest

in

the

zero

population

rowthoncept,

with

ts

insistence on thenecessity toendpopu-

lation

growthandto

do

so

well

before

another

00

million

as

een

dded

to

ourtotal.

What

s

heange

f

probabilities

and

alternatives

beforeus?

Wide,

very

wide.Thecriticalfact

before

llna-

tions

oday

n

which

hildbearing

s

largelyeliberate,

s

hat

he

eath

rate

in

such

societiesislow.

Lessthan

4

percent

ofallinfantsborn

in

modern

societies

ieeforeeachingge5,

whereas

n

he

most

underdeveloped

countries

t

s

ot

uncommon

or0

percent

o

ieefore earf

age.

In

henited

tates,

ach

00

women

assinghroughhehild-

bearing

years

need

to

have

onlyabout

210

hildrenoully

eplace

heir

generation100orhemselves,00

for

he

fathers,

and

about

1 0

o

allow

for

hildren

whoail

o

urviveo

adulthood.

nder

hese

onditions,

even

an

averageof

three

children

per

familyleads

tofairlyrapid

population

growthabout40percent

ineach

25-

yeargeneration.

CALVIN

.EALE

s

eaderfheopu-

lation

tudies

Group,conomicDevelop-

mentDivision,

Economic

ResearchService.


3/7

Thus,fairly

minor

shifts

naverage

family

size

can

haveconsiderableeffect

onthefuturesize

of

theNation'spopu-

lation.omenhoreresently

35-39years

old

willhave

borne

about

320

hildren

er00

womeny

he

time

heyfully

complete

heir

child-

bearing.

f

we

erpetuate

he

family

size

preferencesofthis

generation,

he

Nationwould

add

ts

next

100

million

people

very

quicklybyabout

1997

and

ts

next

200

millionby2015

On

he

other

hand,

women

whoare

presently5-64

ears

old,

nd

ho

thusivedmuch

of

heir

youngadult

life

during

heDepression,nlybore

221hildren

er

00

women.

his

was

a

level

barely

sufficient

o

replace

thearentalopulation.

f

dopted

by

ncoming

enerations

f

oung

adults,

t

would

bring

the

Nationto

a

nearly

tationaryor

ero

rowth

status

without

mmigrationy037.

Even

o,

he

opulation

ould

e

about

275

million

by

that

ime.

Inshort,

within

our

recent

history,

we

havehadonegenerationmotivated

to

have

families

arge

enough

o

pro-

vide

a

rapid

population

ncrease

and

another

which restricted

its

family

size

tothe

replacement

level,

even

without

modernirth

ontrolmethods.This

is

what

makes

accurate

rojection

of

future

populationsizeodifficult.

At

resent,

heumberf

young

peoplentering

he

arriagend

chiidbearing

ages

s

very

arge

n

re-

lation

o

he

umber

feople

t

advanced

ages

wheremostdeaths

oc-

cur.Andhenumber

of

young

adults

will

ecome

ver

argerhroughout

the970's,

eflectingheoming

f

age

ofthe

huge

numbers

of

children

who

were

orn

n

he

950's.

Thus,

even

f

young

adults

marry

ate

nd

formrathermodest-sizedfamilies,

they

are

o

numerous

that

he

births

hey

havewillreatlyxceedeathshat

occurfromthe

muchsmallernumbers

of

older

people.

Recent

years

do,

nfact,

how

ess

early

marriageandearly

chiidbearing.

In

he

mid-1950's,

0

ercent

f

all

girls

arriedeforege

8.hat

figureasow

fallen

o2ercent.

Furthermore,

women

whoreres-

ently

under25

years

of

agehaveborne

only0percent

as

manychildreno

date

s

ad

women

f

his

ge0

yearsago.

Continuation

of

this

relative

levelfchiidbearing

wouldesult

n

a

completedaverage

familysizeonly

slightly

above

replacement

evel.

Thus

at

he

present

point

n

ime,

the

oung

enerationeemsoave

different

alues

nd

bjectiveson-

cerning

the

family

than

theirimmedi-

atepredecessors

did.

But

whether

such

changedbehavior

will

persist

through

the

emainder

fheir

hiidbearing

yearsnoone

can

say

with

certainty.

t

seems

reasonableto

conclude

that

in

our

past

history

families

have

rarely

limited

their

family

sizefrom

consider-

ationsfnational

welfare.Available

familyincomeorthefamily-sizemodes

of

one's

social

equals

were

more

likely

to

bedominant

factors.

Today,however,heressome

evi-

dence

f

couples

onsciously

imiting

theirhiidbearingoow

evel

because

fbeliefs

about

he

undesir-

ability

f

further

ncreasing

he

a-

tionalpopulation.Questionsoffuture

environmental

uality

eemooom

large

n

hethinking

of

suchcouples.

Inhort,tsottll

mpossible

thathiidbearing

ay

all

elow

generationalreplacement

levelsin

the

future.

A

urther

lement

n

heresent

andfuture

growth

of

he

U.S.opu-

lation

s

mmigration.Netmigration

into

he

ountry

as

rowno

more

than

400,000

peryear,

nd

presently

contributes

a

fifth

of

ourotalpopu-

lationgrowth.

But

houldheirth

ate

ecline

further,

nd

mmigration

emain

t

its

resent

evel,

mmigrationwould

contribute

an

increasingly

higher

part

of

our

total

growth.

Such

a

condition

would

almost

certainly

make

he

vol-

ume

of

immigration

moreofa

national

issuethan

itpresentlyis .

Becauseanymmigrantsre

young,

hey

ear

hildrenfterr-

riving

here

nd

hus

make

further

addition

o

opulation

growth.

ven

if

hemmigrantsave

nly

nough


4/7

FUTURE.S . POPULATION

Millions

375

3

225

5

75

386

3 ^

y

0 0

< '

* *

275

2 3

-

^-O-^

. -U.^J^

UsXJUi

^ /J-....^U-J.^ 1

94

96

98 2

2 2

2 4

F U T U R E

HILDBEARING

S S U M P T I O N S

F

PROJEC TION S:

I.a m erateasgenerationnow35-39

years

old.

II. Sufficient

only

to

replaceparentalgeneration

but

with

immigration.

III.

S a m e

as

II

but

n o

immigration.

S o u r ce :

BureauoftheC e n s us .

childrentoreplace

themselves,current

immigration

evels

will

dd

bout

million

dditional

o

uropulation

sizeevery

1 0

years.

To

ummarize

he

rospects

or

adding

undred

illion

moreif

the

present

and

oncoming

generations

bearchildren

at

heratethat

people

now

5-39

earsld

ave,

ndf

present

mmigration

evels

ontinue,

wewill

have

thatnext

hundred

million

by

997.

f

childbearingdropsohe

levelneededonlyforgenerationalre-

placement

andimmigration

continues,

we

will

not

get

ituntil

heyear2020.

If

childbearing

were

o

rop

o

his

level

or

ower

and

fnet

mmigration

were

stopped,

we

would

notadd

n-

other

hundred

million,

but

would

still

add

manymillionpeople

beyond

our

presentlevel.

Atresent

he

nterest

folicy

makers

n

population

rends

seems

o

focuss

much

nhe

istribution

f

peopleasontheirnumber.Population

distribution

policy

issues

are

discussed

in

nother

hapter,utheecent

trends

will

bedescribedhere.

About

74

percent

of

our

peoplenow

live

n

rbanerritory,hats,n

placesof

2,500ormorepopulationor

in

he

densely

settled

suburbs

oflarge

cities.

The

emaining6ercent,

r

about

54

million,

re

rural,

ivingn

thepenountry

or

n

ownsfess

than

2,500population.

The

uralroportionaseclined

invery

ensusor50

ears.

he

numberof

rural

eople

ashanged

very

Httleat

the

national

evelnhe

last

0

ears.

All

f

our

et

rowth

hasbeen

urban.

We

ave

een

redominantly

urbanpeoplesince920.

t

snot

o

muchthefactofurbanizationthats

of interestthese

days,however,as

itis

thecalef

urbanization.

There

re

now2etropolitan

reas

nhe

UnitedStatesthatcontainmore

than

millioneople

ach

Andomef


5/7

these

owinkwith

maller

metro

areasoform

several

massivemetro-

politanregions.

Between

1960

and

970,

he

popu-

lation

n

etropolitan

reas

rew

more

han

twice

as

rapidly

asthat

in

the

small

city

and

rural

territorythat

makes

up

the

nonmetro

areas

17

per-

centcompared

with

percent).

Since

bothpopulations

wouldgrowatabout

the

sameratenheabsenceofmi-

gration,

he

differencesaclear

indi-

cationof

themovement

of

many

people

awayfrom

the

nonmetroand

into

the

metroareas

during

the

decade.

People

movefo r

manyreasons,but

themost

ommon

ne

s

conomic.

Too

often,

he

primarily

agricultural

orcoalminingsectionsof

the

Nation

have

beenareas

of

declining

employ-

ment

s

echanizationisplaced

workers,ndeople

ought

etter

jobsorevenany

jobin

he

arger

cities.

As

a

result,

we

have

more

than

18

millionadultsivingnoururban

placesand

suburbswho

are

ofrural

childhood

origin,

nd

hey

makeup

a

ifthfheotal

rban

dult

population.

Ifneonsiders

nly

onfarm

people,

hen

he

rends

utside

f

metro

areaslook

rather

different.

The

nonfarm

nonmetropolitanpopulation

grew

somewhat

morerapidlythanthe

Nation

as

a

whole

did

n

he

960 s ,

reflecting

a

favorable

growth

rate

of

nonagricultural

jobs.

The

ontinued

rop

narmm-

ploymentoffset

o

muchofthis

gain

thatheublicmage

f

smallity

andrural

areas

hasbeenone

of

eco-

nomic

stagnation

ordecline.

But

he

agriculturaljob

decline

hasabout

run

its

course.With

hefarm

population

now

nly

hird

s

arge,

t

ust

isn't

possible

for

as

many

workers

tobe

displaced

in

thefuture.

If

he

onmetropolitan

reas

an

continue

heir

ecent

ains

non-

agricultural

jobs,moreof

these

gains

willeranslated

n

hefuturento

overallrowthnd

reater

ability

toretain

population

nhesmallcity

and

rural

areas.

U.S. POPULATION

CHANGE,

196 7

Change

20

1

-10

2

30

16.6

13.3

Ma

U.S.Total

Total

Metro

TotalNonmetro

Nonfarm

Farm

19.3

S o u r c e :

Bureauof

the

C e n s u s .

-36.0


6/7

onstruction

of

newhomes

near

Largo Md. suburb

of

Washington

t

mustberecognized,

however,

that

as

ural

r

onmetropolitan

reas

grow,

hearger

onesareransformed

byherowthntorbanr

metro-

politanreas,ndre

eclassified

s

such.Thus

there

is

very

little

prospect

of

increasing

thetotal

size

of

therural

andsmall

city

population.

Theopulationaseenhifting

regionallyaswellasfromsmallcom-

munities

oarge.

Despitehe

jibes

serious

or

comicthat

are

made

about

southern

alifornia's

mog,

prawl,

and

reeways,

manyeopleretill

attracted

to

thatareaand

to

the

whole

Southwestngeneral.

California,

Arizona,

and

Nevadato-

getherppear

ohavehadaboutwo

and

alf

million

ncrease

nopu-

lationnheast0earsrommi-

gration

alone.

At

heotherendof

the

country,

lorida

ontinues

o

oom,

with

over

a

million

net

mmigrants

n

the

decade.

In

both regionstheSouthwest

and

Floridaclimate

seems

oeamajor

factorin

attracting

people.The

United

Statessshortof

areas

that

have

mild

winters,

and

t

shardo

predict

any-

thing

but

ncreasing

futurecongestion

forthose

that

do.

People

lso

ontinue

o

move

nto

many

parts

of

the

megalopolitan

belt

that

stretches

from

Washington,D.C.,

to

Boston.The

xtensive

rade,du-

cational,

research,

governmental,and

service

industries

of

this

densely

settled

areaupport arowing

population.

Butostfherowthsown

outlying

arts

f

he

elt,

with

he

centralitiesr

lder

uburbsften

being

just

as

great

exporters

of

people

asanyagriculturalarea.

On

hetherand,arge

areas

n

theGreat

lainsnd

western

orn

Belt

are

failingto

retain

their

potential

population

growth. TheStatesofIowa,

Kansas,

Nebraska,

North

nd

outh

Dakota,

Montana,

and

Wyoming

grew

in

population

by

only

2

percent

in

the

1960's,

ncluding

heir

metropolitan

areas.

Theysent

two-thirds

of

amillion

migrantso

ther

egions

f

he

country.

In

heSouth,heMississippi

Delta

andheouthern

Appalachianoal

fields

eclinednopulation,ach

givingpbout00,000igrants.

Many

of

them

went

directly

o

north-

ern

cities,

f

past

rends

are

any

judge

of

their

destinations.

In

ummary,

urationalopu-

lation

surrently

rowing

y

bout

2million

a

year.

ts

futuregrowths

not

asily

redictable,

ecause

tti-

tudes

toward

desirable

family

size

may

be

changing,and

comparatively minor

changes

in

typicalfamilysize

can

have

a

ubstantial

ffect

n

opulation

growth.

ut

he

umber

f

oung

people

ow

oming

f

marriage

nd

childbearing

ages

o

arge

that

even

withowertility

heir

irthsill

greatlyoutnumber

the

Nation's

deaths

for

many

yearsocome.

Theountry

will

ave

urther

majorncreasentsopulation

e-


7/7

gardless

ofwhetherwe

attain

another

1 0 0

millionn

his

entury

r

ot.

Thisncrease

will

almost

certainly

be

concentrated

in

themetropolitan-sized

communities,

just

asthe

presentpopu-

lation

is .Butwith

the

diminishingloss

of

jobs

rom

arming,

he

ural

nd

small

city

areas

seem

much

morelikely

than

in

thepastto

be

able

to

develop

enough

onagricultural

mployment

tooffset

he

furtherdeclinesn

farm-

ing.

Manyareashaveshownhisca-

pacityin

the

1960's.

Managing

Space

for

All

of

Us

GENE

WUNDERLICH

and

WILLIAM D Y E R

ANDERSON

LLOWSHIPf

man

s

ine,

inmoderateamounts.After

a

oint,owever,he

resence

f

others

mayannoyand

evendestroy

us.

The

ncrease

n

uman

umbers

presents

uswitha

problem

of

manag-

ing

diminishing

average

space.

A

strategyfor

coping

with

this

prob-

lem

s

o

1)

romote

he

rt

nd

sciencef

nderstanding

pace

e-

lationships;

2)

esignndngineer

structuresandpopulationfor

effective

use

f

space;

nd

3)

esignnd

de-

velop

organizationsand

procedures

for

regulatingumannteraction.

ome

oftheingredients ofthis strategyfollow

below

n

hisandother

chapters.

Inhischapter

wereat

he

pace

problem

narrowly

as

ahumanprob-

lem.Viewingspaceship

earth

strictly

as

uman

nterprise

s

ubject

o

manydangers,asecologistshave

made

us

painfullyaware.Nevertheless,

if

our

chapter

is

to

focus

on

human

relation-

ships,

wewillsimply

have

toacknowl-

edgehat

he

arth

ontains

many

creaturesndeaturesndetto

atthat.Themessageof

thischapteris

mostlyboutheistancesmong

people.

But

what

isthe

meaningof

space

to

an

ndividual?

North

Americans,

or

example,

eel

ntruded

pon

f

stranger

nvadeshe-foot-distance

barrier.hey

rencomfortablef

evenafriendconverses

closer

than2

feet.

Yet25feetisa

"public"

distance

and

people

do

not

careo

do

private

business

t

such

engths

ven

fthey

can

beheard.

Distance

has

mportant

effects

on

human

relationships

in

work,

living,

and

recreation.

Withinimits,

erceptions

f

is-

tance

re

esult

fulture.

t

s

known,or

example,hat

heypical

LatinAmerican

prefers

to

stand

about

six

inchesclosertohispartner

in

con-

versationhanheNorthAmerican.

Unlesshis

cultural

differential

sun-

derstood

by

parties

involved,

theNorth

American

s

cold

nd

tandoffish"

and

the

LatinAmericanis"pushyand

overbearing."Distance

can

be

meas-

suredsychologically,ocially,nd

culturally.

Wean

xtend

he

dea

f

inear

distancento

wo-dimensional

rea

orterritory.

Even

further,

wecan

say

that

mansurroundshimself

in

a

psy-

chological

space

ubble"of

ari-

abledimensions

for

differentfunctions.

Intrusionsnto

his

space

may

be

re-

gardedashostile

orat

east

disagree-

able.

In

order

ovoluntarilyyield

apor-

tion

ofthis

space,

some

compensation

isrequired.

Forexample,onewillac-

cept

a

crowdedbus

f

it

ischeaper

or

moreconvenient

than

ridingone'sown

car.

Or

aperson

will

accept

asmaller

residential

ot

ecausets

heaper

thana

arge

one.Whenone'sprivate

space

s

nvaded,

ne

xpects

he

compensation

f

raceful

thank

you"

or

"excuse

me."

GENEWUNDERLICHs

an

cconomist

n

he

NaturalResource

conomicsDivision,Eco-

nomic

Research

Service.

WILLIAM

DYER

ANDERSON

s

an

attorney

n

the

Division.

100 million more people coming up? calvin l. beale

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