101000860 a project report on fundamental analysis of mahindra amp mahindra company

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    vehicles (LCVs). The company later expanded its

    operations from automobiles and tractors to secure a

    significant presence in many more important sectors. The

    company has, over the years, transformed itself into a

    Group that caters to the Indian and overseas markets

    with a presence in vehicles, farm equipment, information

    technology, trade and finance related services, and

    infrastructure development. Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd

    (M&M) is a leading player in the Indian utility vehicles andtractors segment with market shares of 49.5% in Jeeps /

    MUVs, 30.9% in 3-wheelers, and market share of 25.9% in

    Tractors in the FY2005.

    This study tries to cover the industry related data

    and in depth company study and an overview of the

    economy, evaluates the company on various valuation

    models.

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    THEORETICAL BACKGROUND

    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:

    Fundamental analysis is the examination of the

    underlying forces that affect the well being of the

    economy, industry groups, and companies. As with most

    analysis, the goal is to derive a forecast and profit from

    future price movements. At the company level,

    fundamental analysis may involve examination of financialdata, management, business concept and competition. At

    the industry level, there might be an examination of supply

    and demand forces for the products offered. For the

    national economy, fundamental analysis might focus on

    economic data to assess the present and future growth of

    the economy. To forecast future stock prices, fundamental

    analysis combines economic, industry, and company

    analysis to derive a stock's current fair value and forecast

    future value. If fair value is not equal to the current stock

    price, fundamental analysts believe that the stock is either

    over or under valued and the market price will ultimately

    gravitate towards fair value. Fundamentalists do not heed

    the advice of the random walkers and believe that markets

    are weak form efficient. By believing that prices do not

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    accurately reflect all available information, fundamental

    analysts look to capitalize on perceived price

    discrepancies.

    STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESS OF FUNDAMENTAL

    ANALYSIS

    Long-term Trends:

    Fundamental analysis is good for long-term

    investments based on long-term trends, very long-term.

    The ability to identify and predict long-term economic,

    demographic, technological or consumer trends can

    benefit patient investors who pick the right industry groups

    or companies.

    Value Spotting:

    Sound fundamental analysis will help identify

    companies that represent good value. Some of the most

    legendary investors think long-term and value. Graham

    and Dodd, Warren Buffett and John Neff are seen as the

    champions of value investing. Fundamental analysis can

    help uncover companies with valuable assets, a strong

    balance sheet, stable earnings and staying power.

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    Business Acumen:

    One of the most obvious, but less tangible, rewards of

    fundamental analysis is the development of a thorough

    understanding of the business. After such painstaking

    research and analysis, an investor will be familiar with the

    key revenue and profit drivers behind a company. Earnings

    and earnings expectations can be potent drivers of equityprices. Even some technicians will agree to that. A good

    understanding can help investors avoid companies that are

    prone to shortfalls and identify those that continue to

    deliver. In addition to understanding the business,

    fundamental analysis allows investors to develop an

    understanding of the key value drivers and companies

    within an industry. Its industry group heavily influences a

    stocks price. By studying these groups, investors can

    better position themselves to identify opportunities that

    are high-risk (tech), low-risk (utilities), growth oriented

    (computer), value driven (oil), non-cyclical (consumer

    staples), cyclical (transportation) or income oriented (high

    yield).

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    Knowing Who's Who:

    Stocks move as a group. By understanding a

    company's business, investors can better position

    themselves to categorize stocks within their relevant

    industry group. Business can change rapidly and with it the

    revenue mix of a company. This happened to many of the

    pure internet retailers, which were not really internet

    companies, but plain retailers. Knowing a company'sbusiness and being able to place it in a group can make a

    huge difference in relative valuations.

    WEAKNESS

    Time Constraints:

    Fundamental analysis may offer excellent insights, but

    it can be extraordinarily time consuming. Time-consuming

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    models often produce valuations that are contradictory to

    the current price.

    Industry/Company Specific:

    Valuation techniques vary depending on the industry

    group and specifics of each company. For this reason, a

    different technique and model is required for different

    industries and different companies. This can get quite timeconsuming and limit the amount of research that can be

    performed.

    Subjectivity:

    Fair value is based on assumptions. Any changes to

    growth or multiplier assumptions can greatly alter the

    ultimate valuation. Fundamental analysts are generally

    aware of this and use sensitivity analysis to present a

    base-case valuation, a best-case valuation and a worst-

    case valuation. However, even on a worst case, most

    models are almost always bullish, the only question is how

    much so.

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    Analyst Bias:

    The majority of the information that goes into the

    analysis comes from the company itself. Companies

    employ investor relations managers specifically to handle

    the analyst community and release information.

    Introduction to Investment Valuation

    Every asset, financial as well as real, has value. The

    key to successfully investing in and managing these assets

    lies in understanding not only what the value is, but the

    sources of the value. Any asset can be valued, but some

    assets are easier to value than others, and the details of

    valuation will vary from case to case. Thus, the valuation

    of a share of a real estate property will require different

    information and follow a different format from the

    valuation of a publicly traded stock. What is surprising;

    however, is not the difference in valuation techniques

    across assets, but the degree of similarity in basic

    principles. There is undeniably uncertainty associated with

    valuation. Often that uncertainty comes from the asset

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    being valued, although the valuation model may add to

    that uncertainty.

    A PHILOSOPHICAL BASIS FOR VALUATION

    A surprising number of investors subscribe to the

    bigger fool theory of investing, which argues that the

    value of an asset is irrelevant as long as there is a bigger

    fool around who is willing to buy the asset from them.

    While this may provide a basis for some profits, it is a

    dangerous game to play, since there is no guarantee that

    such an investor will still be around when the time to sell

    comes.

    A postulate of sound investing is that an investor does

    not pay more for an asset than its worth. This statement

    may seem logic and obvious, but it is forgotten and

    rediscovered at some time in every generation and in

    every market. There are those who are disingenuous

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    enough to argue that value is in the eyes of the beholder,

    and that any price can be justified if there are other

    investors willing to pay that price. That is patently absurd.

    Perceptions may be all that matter when the asset is a

    painting or a sculpture, but investors do not (and should

    not) buy most assets for aesthetic or emotional reasons;

    financial assets are acquired for the cash flows expected

    from owning them. Consequently, perceptions of value

    have to be backed up by reality, which implies that theprice that is paid for any asset should reflect the cash

    flows it is expected to generate. The models of valuation

    described in this book attempt to relate value to the level

    and expected growth of these cash flows.

    There are many areas in valuation where there is

    room for disagreement, including how to estimate true

    value and how long it will take for prices to adjust to true

    value. But there is one point on which there can be no

    disagreement. Asset prices cannot be justified merely by

    using the argument that there will be other investors

    around willing to pay a higher price in the future.

    THE ROLE OF VALUATION

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    Valuation is useful in a wide range of tasks. The role it

    plays, however, is different in different arenas. The

    following section lays out the relevance in portfolio

    management, in acquisition analysis, and in corporate

    finance.

    Valuation and Portfolio Management

    The role that valuation plays in portfoliomanagement is determined in large part by the

    investment philosophy of the investor. Valuation plays a

    minimal role in portfolio management for a passive

    investor, whereas it plays a larger role for an active

    investor. Even among active investors, the nature and role

    of valuation are different for different types of active

    investors can be categorized as either market timers, who

    trust in their abilities to foresee the direction of the overall

    stock or bond markets, on security selection who believe

    that their skills lie in funding under or over valued

    securities. Market timers use valuation much less than do

    investors who pick stocks, and the focus is on market

    valuation rather than on firm specific valuation. Among

    security selectors, valuation plays a central role in portfolio

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    management for fundamental analysts and a peripheral

    role for technical analysis.

    The following subsections describe, in broad terms.

    Different philosophies and the role played by valuation in

    each.

    Fundamental Analysts

    The underlying theme in fundamental analysis is that

    the true value of the firm can be related to its financial

    characteristics- its growth prospects, prospects, riskprofile, and cash flows. Any deviation from this true value

    is a sign that a stock is under or overvalued. It is a long-

    term investment strategy and the assumptions underlying

    it are that:

    (a) The relationship between value and the underlying

    financial factors can be measured.

    (b) The relationship is stable over time.

    ( c ) Deviations from the relationship are corrected in a

    reasonable time period.

    Valuation is the central focus in fundamental analysis.

    Some analysts usediscounted cash flow models to value

    firms, while others use multiples such as price/earnings

    and price/book value ratios. Since investors using this

    approach hold a large number of "undervalued' stocks in

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    their portfolios, their hope is that, on average, these

    portfolios will do better than the market.

    Franchise Buyers

    The philosophy of a franchise buyer is best expressed

    by an investor who has been very successful at it -Warren

    Buffet. We try to stick to businesses we believe we.

    Understand, Mr.Buffett writes. That means they must be

    relatively simple and stable in character. If a business iscomplex and subject to constant change, we're not smart

    enough to predict future cash flows. Franchise buyers

    concentrate on a few businesses they understand well and

    attempt to acquire undervalued firms. Often, as in the case

    of Mr. Buffet, franchise buyers wield influence on the

    management of these firms and can change financial and

    investment policy. As a long-term strategy, the

    underselling assumptions are that:

    (a) Investors who understand a business well are in a

    better position to value it correctly.

    (b) These undervalued businesses can be acquired without

    driving the price above the true value.

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    Valuation plays a key role in this philosophy, since

    franchise buyers arc attracted to a particular business

    because they believe it is undervalued. They are also

    interested in how much additional value they can create

    by restructuring the business and running it right.

    Chartists

    Chartists believe that prices are driven as much by

    investor psychology as by any underlying financialvariables. The information available from trading - price

    movements, trading volume, short sales, and so forth -

    gives an indication of investor psychology and future price

    movements. The assumptions here are that prices move in

    predictable patterns, that there are not enough marginal

    investors taking advantage of these patterns to eliminate

    them, and that the average investor in the market is

    driven more by emotion than by rational analysis.

    While valuation does not play much of a role in

    charting, there are ways in which an enterprising chartist

    can incorporate it into analysis. For instance valuation can

    be used to determine support and resistance lines4 on

    price chart.

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    Information Traders

    Prices move on information about the firm.

    Information traders attempt to trade in advance of new

    information or shortly after it is revealed to financial

    markets, buying on good news and selling on bad. The

    underlying assumption is that these traders can anticipate

    information announcements and gauge the market

    reaction to them better than the average investor in themarket.

    For information trader the focus is on the relationship

    between information and changes in value, rather than on

    value per se. Thus an information trader may buy an

    overvalued firm if he or she believes that the next

    information announcement is going to cause the price to

    go up because it contains better-than-expected news. If

    there is a relationship between how undervalue or

    overvalued a company is and how its stock price reacts to

    new information then valuation could play a role in

    investing for an information trader.

    Market Timers

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    Market timers note, with some legitimacy, that the

    payoff to calling turns in markets is much greater than the

    returns from stock picking. They argue that it is easier to

    predict market movements than to select stocks and that

    these predictions can be based upon factors that are

    observable.

    While valuation of individual stocks may not be of any use

    to a market timer, market timing strategies can use

    valuation in at least two ways:(a) The overall market itself can be valued and compared

    to the current level.

    (b) A valuation model can be used to value all stocks, and

    the results from the cross-section can be used to

    determine whether the market is over or undervalued. For

    example, as the numbers of stocks that are overvalued

    using the dividend discount model increases relative to the

    numbers that are undervalued, there may be reason to

    believe that the market is overvalued.

    Efficient Marketer

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    Efficient marketers believe that the market price at

    any point in time represents the best estimate of the true

    value of the firm and that any attempt to exploit perceived

    market efficiencies will cost more than it will make in

    excess profits. They assume that markets aggregate

    information quickly and accurately, that marginal investors

    promptly exploit any inefficiencies, and that any

    inefficiencies in the market are caused by friction, such as

    transaction costs, and cannot be arbitraged away.For efficient marketers, valuation is a useful exercise

    to determine why, stock sells for the price it does. Since

    the underlying assumption is that the market price is the

    best estimate of the true value of the company, the

    objective becomes determining what assumptions about

    growth and risk are implied in this market price, rather

    than on finding under- or overvalued firms.

    Valuation in Acquisition Analysis

    Valuation should play a central part in acquisition

    analysis. The bidding firm or individual has to decide on a

    fair value for the target firm before making a bid, and the

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    target firm has to determine a reasonable value for itself

    before deciding to accept or reject the offer.

    There are also special factors to consider in takeover

    valuation. First, the effects of synergy on the combined

    value of the two firms (target plus bidding firm) have to be

    considered before a decision is made on the bid. Those

    who suggest that synergy is impossible to value and

    should not be considered impossible to value should not be

    considered in quantitative terms are wrong. Second, theeffects on value of changing management and

    restructuring the target firm will have to be taken into

    account in deciding on a fair price. This is of particular

    concern in hostile takeovers.

    Finally, there is a significant problem with bias in

    takeover valuations. Target firms may be overly optimistic

    in estimating value, especially when the takeover is hostile

    and they are trying to convince their stockholders that the

    offer price is too low. Similarly, if the bidding firm has

    decided, for strategic reasons, to do an acquisition, there

    may be strong pressure on the analyst to come up with an

    estimate of value that backs up the acquisition decision.

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    Valuation in Corporate Finance

    The objective in corporate finance is the maximization

    of firm value, and then the relationship between financial

    decisions, corporate strategy, and firm value has to be

    delineated. In recent years, management-consulting firms

    have started offering companies advice on how to increase

    value. Their suggestions have often provided the basis for

    the restructuring of these firms.The value of a firm can be directly related to decisions

    that it makes-on that projects it takes, on how it finances

    them, and on its dividend policy. Understanding this

    relationship is key to making value-increasing decisions

    and to sensible financial restructuring.

    Equity represents a residual cash flow rather than a

    promised cash flow.

    You can value equity in one of two ways:

    By discounting cash flows to equity at the cost of equity

    to arrive at the value of equity directly.

    By discounting cash flows to the firm at the cost of

    capital to arrive at the value of the business. Subtracting

    out the firms outstanding debt should yield the value of

    equity.

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    Two Measures of Cash Flows

    Cash flows to Equity: These are the cash flows

    generated by the asset after all expenses and taxes, and

    also after payments due on the debt. This cash flow, which

    is after debt payments, operating expenses and taxes, is

    called the cash flow to equity investors.

    Cash flow to Firm: There is also a broader definition of

    cash flow that we can use, where we look at not just the

    equity investor in the asset, but at the total cash flows

    generated by the asset for both the equity investor and

    the lender. This cash flow, which is before debt payments

    but after operating expenses and taxes, is called the cash

    flow to the firm.

    Two Measures of Discount Rates

    Cost of Equity: This is the rate of return required by

    equity investors on an investment. It will incorporate a

    premium for equity risk the greater the risk, the greater

    the premium.

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    Cost of capital: This is a composite cost of all of the

    capital invested in an asset or business. It will be a

    weighted average of the cost of equity and the after-tax

    cost of borrowing.

    FREE CASH FLOWS TO THE FIRM

    The best things in life are free, and the same holdstrue for cash flow. Smart investors love companies that

    produce plenty of free cash flow (FCF). It signals a

    company's ability to pay debt, pay dividends, buy back

    stock and facilitate the growth of business - all important

    undertakings from an investor's perspective. However,

    while free cash flow is a great gauge of corporate health, it

    does have its limits and is not immune to accounting

    trickery.

    What Is Free Cash Flow?

    By establishing how much cash a company has after

    paying its bills for ongoing activities and growth, FCF is a

    measure that aims to cut through the arbitrariness and

    "guesstimations" involved in reported earnings. Regardless

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    of whether a cash outlay is counted as an expense in the

    calculation of income or turned into an asset on the

    balance sheet, free cash flow tracks the money.

    To calculate FCF, make a beeline for the company's cash

    flow statement and balance sheet. There you will find the

    item cash flow from operations (also referred to as

    "operating cash"). From this number subtract estimated

    capital expenditure required for current operations:

    - Cash Flow from Operations (Operating Cash)- Capital Expenditure

    To do it another way, grab the income statement and

    balance sheet. Start with net income and add back

    charges for depreciation and amortization. Make an

    additional adjustment for changes in working capital,

    which is done by subtracting current liabilities from current

    assets. Then subtract capital expenditure, or spending on

    plants and equipment:

    - Net income

    + Depreciation/Amortization

    - Change in Working Capital

    - Capital Expenditure

    It might seem odd to add back

    depreciation/amortization since it accounts for capital

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    spending. The reasoning behind the adjustment, however,

    is that free cash flow is meant to measure money being

    spent right now, not transactions that happened in the

    past. This makes FCF a useful instrument for identifying

    growing companies with high up-front costs, which may

    eat into earnings now but have the potential to pay off

    later.

    What Does Free Cash Flow Indicate?

    Growing free cash flows are frequently a prelude to

    increased earnings. Companies that experience surging

    FCF - due to revenue growth, efficiency improvements,

    cost reductions, share buy backs, dividend distributions or

    debt elimination - can reward investors tomorrow. That is

    why many in the investment community cherish FCF as a

    measure of value. When a firm's share price is low and free

    cash flow is on the rise, the odds are good that earnings

    and share value will soon be on the up.

    By contrast, shrinking FCF signals trouble ahead. In

    the absence of decent free cash flow, companies are

    unable to sustain earnings growth. An insufficient FCF for

    earnings growth can force a company to boost its debt

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    levels. Even worse, a company without enough FCF may

    not have the liquidity to stay in business.

    RESEARCH DESIGN OF THE STUDY

    INTRODUCTION:

    Every stock available in the markets has a value

    called market price, which is the indicator of the

    companys performance. According to fundamental

    analysis we will try to find the intrinsic value of a particular

    stock, which is the true value of the stock, based on which

    investment arguments take place.

    STATEMENT OF PROBLEM:

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    Every asset, financial as well as real, has value. The

    key to successfully investing in and managing these assets

    lies in understanding not only what the value is, but the

    sources of the value. Any asset at can be valued but some

    assets are easier to value than others, and the details of

    the valuation will vary from case to case. Thus, the

    valuation of a share of a real estate property will require

    different information and follow a different format from the

    valuation of a publicly traded stock. What is surprising;however, is not the difference in valuation techniques

    across assets, but the degree of similarity in basic

    principles. There is undeniably uncertainty associated with

    valuation. Often the uncertainty comes from the asset

    being valued, although the valuation model may add to

    that ascertained.

    A postulate of sound investing is that an investor does

    not pay more for asset than its worth. This statement may

    seem logical and obvious as financial assets are acquired

    for the cash flows expected from owning them, which

    implies that the price that is paid for any asset should

    reflect the cash flows it is expected to generate.

    The problem in valuation is not that there are not

    enough models to value an asset; it is that there are too

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    many. Choosing the right model to use in valuation is as

    critical to arriving at a reasonable value as understanding

    how to use the model. Analysts use a wide variety of

    models from simple to the sophisticated. These models

    often make different assumptions about pricing, but they

    do share some common characteristics so in the study we

    tried to use price-earning multiples and discounted cash

    flow models of valuation.

    OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY:

    To understand the macroeconomic variables those will

    an impact on the company progress.

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    To study the various trends, opportunities, challenges

    of the industry in which the company operates.

    To understand the various policies of the company

    those have impact on the financial performance of the

    company.

    To understand the various investment valuation

    models that can be used.

    To select the appropriate model that suits the stock.

    Find the intrinsic value of the stock and compare with

    market value of the study.

    To recommend whether to buy, hold or sell the stock

    based on the analysis.

    SCOPE OF THE STUDY:

    The study basically tries to identify the intrinsic value

    of the company by using the published financial details of

    the company. The study is restricted to one particular

    company in the sector. The study also includes testing

    the intrinsic value of the company.

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    RESEARCH METHODOLOGY:

    Type of research:

    Research design is the conceptual structure within

    which research is conducted. It constitutes the blue print

    for the collection, measurement, and analysis of data. The

    type of research adopted for the study is descriptive

    research as the research does not require any

    manipulation of variables and does not establish causalrelationship between events; it just simply describes the

    variables.

    Sources of data:

    Primary data

    Those are the data that are obtained by a study

    specially designed to fulfill the data needs of the problem.

    Meeting the company professionals personally collected

    the information necessary for the study.

    Secondary data

    Data, which are not originally collected but rather

    obtained from published or unpublished sources, are

    known as secondary data. In this research secondary data

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    was collected through sources like Internet, research

    reports, magazines, and company journals.

    Sampling plan:

    Type of sampling : Non-probabilistic judgment

    sampling.

    Sample size : One company from automobilesector.

    RESEARCH INSTRUMENTS:

    Financial calculations: - This was done to find the

    various valuation ratios and necessary calculations to find

    the intrinsic value of the company.

    Z Test: - This test was used to test the hypothesis.

    PLAN OF ANALYSIS:

    After having collected the financial data related to the

    entities i.e., the sample selected from the selected sector.

    Calculate the various valuation ratios and other financial

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    A measure of a security's or portfolio's volatility, or

    systematic risk, in comparison to the market as a whole. It

    is also known as "beta coefficient."

    2) CAPEX:

    Funds used by a company to acquire or upgrade

    physical assets such as property, industrial buildings, or

    equipment.

    3) CAGR:

    The year over year growth rate of an investment overa specified periodoftime.

    Calculated by taking the nth root of the total percentage

    growth rate where n is the number of years in the period

    being considered.

    This can be written as:

    4) COST OF EQUITY:

    The return that stockholders require for a company for

    the capital invested. The traditional formula is the dividend

    capitalization model:

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    5) DEBT/EQUITY RATIO:

    A measure of a company's financial leverage

    calculated by dividing long-term debt by shareholders

    equity. It indicates what proportion of equity and debt the

    company is using to finance its assets.

    Note: Sometimes investors only use interest bearing long-

    term debt instead of total liabilities.

    6) DEPRECIATION:

    An expense recorded to reduce the value of a long-

    term tangible asset. Since it is a non-cash expense, it

    increases free cash flow while decreasing reportedearnings.

    7) DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO:

    The percentage of earnings paid to shareholders in

    dividends.

    9) DUPONT ANALYSIS:

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    A method of performance measurement that was

    started by the DuPont Corporation in the 1920s, and has

    been used by them ever since. With this method, assets

    are measured at their gross book value rather than at net

    book value in order to produce a higher ROI.

    10) EPS:

    The portion of a company's profit allocated to each

    outstanding share of common stock. Calculated as:

    11) EFFECTIVE TAX RATE:

    The portion of a company's profit allocated to each

    outstanding share of common stock. Calculated as:

    12) EQUITY MULTIPLIER:

    A measure of financial leverage calculated as:

    Total Assets divided by Total Stockholders' Equity.

    Like all debt management ratios, the equity multiplier

    is a way of examining how a company uses debt to finance

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    its assets. It is also known as the financial leverage ratio or

    leverage ratio.

    13) ASSET TURN OVER RATIO:

    The amount of sales generated for every dollar's

    worth of assets. It is calculated by dividing sales in rupees

    by assets in rupees.

    Formula:

    14) FUNDMENTAL ANALYSIS:

    The amount of sales generated for every dollar's

    worth of assets. It is calculated by dividing sales in rupees

    by assets in rupees.

    Formula:

    15) MARKET CAPITALISATION:

    It is the total value of all outstanding shares of

    particular company, which is represented in the market.

    It's calculated by multiplying the number of shares times

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    the current market price. This term is often referred to as

    market cap.

    16) PE (PRICE EARNING MULTIPLES):

    A valuation ratio of a company's current share price

    compared to its per-share earnings. A valuation ratio of a

    company's current share price compared to its per-share

    earnings.

    Calculated as:

    17) PEG (PRICE EARNING TO GROWTH):

    A valuation ratio of a company's current share price

    compared to its per-share earnings.

    18) ROE:

    A measure of a corporation's profitability, calculated as:

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    19) WACC: A calculation of a firm's cost of capital that

    weight each category of capital proportionately. Included

    in the WACC calculations are all capital sources, including

    common stock, preferred stock, bonds, and any other long-

    term debt.

    WACC is calculated by multiplying the cost of each capital

    component by its proportional weighting and then

    summing:

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    CHAPTER SCHEME

    Chapter: 1 THEORITICAL BACKGROUND OF THE

    STUDY

    This chapter mainly deals with secondary data

    collected to support the study and the reasons to problem

    of study.

    Chapter: 2 RESEARCH DESIGN

    A research design serves as a bridge between what

    has been done in the conduct of study to realize the

    specified objectives. It is an outline of the projects working.

    Chapter: 3 PROFILES

    This chapter includes the profile of the industry as well

    as the company in which the study is conducted. This is

    also tries to deal with trends and prospects in the industry

    as well as the company.

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    Chapter: 4 ANALYSES AND INTERPRETATION

    In this chapter using the analyzed data we have tried

    to find out the intrinsic value of the company. Hypothesis

    test is done to find whether the value of the company is

    under or over valued.

    Chapter: 5 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS

    AND SUGGESTIONS

    In this chapter we will actually include all that we have

    analyzed and what has been found. Finally concludechecking whether the objective of the study has been

    achieved or not.

    ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

    Economic Outlook:

    During the fiscal year 2003-04, Indias GDP which

    grew by 8.10% was principally on account of a strong

    recovery in the agriculture sector and accelerated growth

    in the industry and services sectors. A growth rate higher

    than 8% has been achieved in the past in only three years

    - 1967-68, 1975-76 and 1988-89. Exports have grown by

    17.1% in 2003-04 in USD terms. While the rupee

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    appreciated against USD in 2003-04, it depreciated against

    the currencies of major non dollar-trading partners.

    Foreign exchange reserves crossed the levels of USD 100

    billion mark on December 2003 and stood at USD 199.3

    billion as on 31st March 2004. Foreign Institutional

    Investors (FIIs) investments saw a sharp rise during the

    year, which amounted to USD 10 billion. Overall economic

    conditions look positive and expected to post a GDP

    growth of 6-6.5% during FY05.

    GRAPH 1: ACCELERATING GROWTH OF GDP

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    TABLE 1: INDIA - ECONOMIC PARAMETERS

    F 04 F 05

    GDP Growth

    (%)

    8.1 6.0 -

    6.5 Fiscal Deficit

    (%)

    4.8 4.4

    Interest Rate Decline

    d

    Hardeni

    ng Inflation

    (Average) %

    5.3 6.5

    Rupee - US

    Dollar

    Apprecia

    ted

    Steady

    (Source: RBI, CMI)

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    The Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated

    to have grown by 8.10% in 2003-04, buoyed by a strong

    agricultural recovery. While the agricultural sector grew by

    9.1% during the FY04, the industry and services sectors

    have also maintained their momentum with the GDP

    growth by achieving a growth rate of 6.5% and 8.4%

    respectively during the year. The growth GDP has grown

    by 7.4% during April-June 2004 period, lower than the

    8.2% growth registered in January-March 2004 and 10.5%in October-December 2003 quarter. Inflation is also inching

    up higher, driven by increases in fuel and commodity

    prices. Non food credit has increased by 11.5% during the

    April-September 2004 period as against previous

    corresponding years 6% indicating the progressive

    economic activities. But the global crude oil shock will

    definitely have an adverse affect on the growth during

    fiscal 2005.

    GRAPH 3: INFLATION

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    The average inflation during fiscal year 2003-04 was

    around 5.5% as against the previous corresponding fiscalsaverage of 3.4%, the prime movers being sugar, edible

    oils, textiles, leather and leather products, basic metals,

    alloys, iron and steel. With the increase of few commodity

    prices mainly the crude oil prices have increased the

    global inflation levels from June 2004, India being no

    exception to this. The domestic fuel prices have risen by

    more than 10% during the fiscal 2004-05 over last years.

    The inflation during the fiscal year 2004-05 touched three

    and a half years high of 8.33% for the week ended August

    28th 2004 from 5.55% for the week ended June 5th 2004

    due to the excess money supply in the economy. Thereasons for the high inflation are both domestic and

    international. The domestic reasons include excess

    liquidity in the market and delay in monsoon that

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    increased the prices of essential commodities. M3, the

    measure of money supply grew by 15.5 per cent in July

    2004, compared to 11.25 per cent in July 2003. The

    international causes are inexorable rise in oil prices, global

    increase in the prices of commodities, supply side shock

    and growth in chinas demand for goods. This is cost-push

    inflation wherein the supply problems in a few important

    commodities push up prices of commodities. Since crude

    oil import constitute almost one third of the total exports,we can say that the present situation is on account of

    imported inflation. To check the rising prices, government

    took some measures like duty cuts on steel and oil

    products. Reserve Bank of India raised the Cash Reserve

    Ratio to 5% from 4.5% in two tranches of 25 basis points

    and has also cut the rate of interest payable on eligible

    cash balances maintained with it by banks by 250 basis

    points to 3.5 percent. In fact, the gradual reduction in the

    CRR over the past few years in successive credit policies

    had been one of the major contributors for the sustained

    reduction in the interest rates on auto loans. These moves

    were expected to draw out around Rs.8000 crore from the

    banking system. Later, the inflation was reduced to 7.20%

    in the last week of September. With the increase in the

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    GRAPH 4: GDP AND AUTO SALES

    GDP and Auto sales

    1100

    1150

    1200

    1250

    1300

    1350

    1400

    1450

    1999-

    00

    2000-

    01

    2001-

    02

    2002-

    03

    2003-

    04

    RealGDP

    (Rs.

    '00

    At1993-

    94price

    404550556065707580

    No

    ofunits(in

    GDP No of units (in lakhs)

    (Source: www.indiabudget.nic.in)

    Rubber Prices:

    With the increase in rural activities, the commercial

    vehicles are expected to grow. Sports Utility Vehicles (SUV)

    after being a very big hit in the domestic market, the

    players now are planning to introduce them to the

    domestic market. But the increase in the input prices like

    steel and rubber has a negative impact on the industry

    profitability. The truckers strike has affected the auto

    players production and distribution to certain extent.

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    GRAPH 5: SHOWING RUBBER PRICES

    Interntional & Domestic Rubber Price

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    1600

    Mar-

    01

    Jul-01 Nov-

    01

    Apr-

    02

    Aug-

    02

    Dec-

    02

    Apr-

    03

    Aug-

    03

    Dec-

    03

    Apr-

    04

    USD

    /Ton

    0

    10,000

    20,00030,000

    40,000

    50,000

    60,000

    70,000

    Rs/Ton

    USD/Ton Rs/Ton

    Source: indiainfolineA combination of internal and external factors has

    contributed to the price volatility in the rubber market.

    Since the domestic prices of rubber are less than the

    global prices, the tyre manufacturers in other countries,

    sourcing natural rubber from India which has led to the

    increase in the exports thereby reducing the domestic

    stock levels to less than sixty days of consumption of the

    rubber users sector. Also, the subsidy given by the

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    government for exports of rubber has resulted in an

    increase in the exports.

    The steel prices

    GRAPH 6: SHOWING STEEL PRICES

    Steel Prices

    20,000

    30,000

    40,000

    Apr-02

    Jul-02

    Oct-02

    Jan-03

    Apr-03

    Jul-03

    Oct-03

    Jan-04

    Apr-04

    Jul-04

    Oct-04

    Rs/Tonn

    GC sheets

    Source: indiainfoline

    The steel prices are on rise following a sharp increase

    in the prices of raw materials like iron ore, coke, coal,

    power, gas and scrap. While the cost of iron ore went up

    by 75% during the period June2003 to July 2004, the scrap

    prices jumped up by 91%. Cokes prices saw an increase of

    50% during the same period. There are no signs of decline

    in the prices of steel products following a strong demand

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    from the housing and infrastructure sectors, with

    additional growth potential in the auto and consumer

    durables sectors too. With China taking steps to cool down

    its overheated economy, demand from that country is

    expected to slow down. But any shortfall in demand from

    China may be offset by growth in demand in the US,

    Europe and Japan as economic recovery gathers

    momentum leaving no scope for the steel price declines in

    the near short term.

    Competition and Market

    In the Automotive Sector the continuing convergence

    between the car and the UV markets is a positive

    development. High-end MUV sales accounted for 51% of

    mid-size car sales in India in F-04, as compared to 16% in

    F-00. The Co also believes that as the car market expands

    in India, MUVs will continue to take an increasing share of

    this market. After the success of the Scorpio and Bolero,

    Reduced interest rates with the maturing of the vehicle

    financing market will also add an impetus to vehicle sales

    growth. Increased penetration of such financing products

    in rural and semi-urban markets will directly benefit the

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    Company given its strong presence in these markets. M&M

    has the additional advantage that its subsidiary, MMFSL

    has a wide rural network. The ongoing WTO & Free Trade

    Area negotiations with Thailand, ASEAN, SAARC countries

    and the Mercosur countries are likely to lead to lowered

    tariffs across many of our target export markets. This

    could provide the Co with a significant opportunity to

    generate larger volumes from export sales.

    Being an agrarian economy Indias GDP growth ismuch dependent on the fortunes of the agro sector. Given

    this backdrop the Tractor industry assumes significance.

    The Indian Tractor industry is the largest in the world in

    terms of production and sales. However in terms of per

    capita usage it still scores low against comparable

    developing nations. This provides for ample scope of

    growth for the industry in future. With liberalization

    restrictions on capacities and production were removed.

    Today anybody can walk in and put up a plant and start

    operations.

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    COMPANY PROFILE:

    Mahindra & Mahindra Limited (M&M) is the flagship

    company of around US $ 2.5 billion Mahindra Group, which

    has a significant presence in key sectors of the Indian

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    economy. A consistently high performer, M&M is one of the

    most respected companies in the country.

    Set up in 1945 to make general-purpose utility

    vehicles for the Indian market, M&M soon branched out

    into manufacturing agricultural tractors and light

    commercial vehicles (LCVs). The company later expanded

    its operations from automobiles and tractors to secure a

    significant presence in many more important sectors. The

    Company has, over the years, transformed itself into aGroup that caters to the Indian and overseas markets with

    a presence in vehicles, farm equipment, information

    technology, trade and finance related services, and

    infrastructure development.

    M&M has two main operating divisions:

    1) The Automotive Division manufactures utility vehicles,

    light commercial vehicles and three wheelers.

    2) The Tractor (Farm Equipment) Division makes

    agricultural tractors and implements that are used in

    conjunction with tractors, and has also ventured into

    manufacturing of industrial engines. The Tractor Division

    has won the coveted Deming Application Prize 2003,

    making it the only tractor manufacturing company in the

    world to secure this prize.

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    The resurgence of the automotive industry and M&M's

    success in exploiting it, has created an opportunity to

    strengthen the company through an entry into the Auto

    Components business, the growth of which is being fueled

    by both, domestic and export demand.

    M&M employs around 11,500 people and has six

    state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities spread over

    500,000 square meters. M&M has also set up two satellite

    plants for tractor assembly. It has 49 sales offices that aresupported by a network of over 780 dealers across the

    country. This network is connected to the Company's sales

    departments by an extensive IT infrastructure.

    M&M's outstanding manufacturing and engineering

    skills allow it to constantly innovate and launch new

    products for the Indian market. The Company's significant

    recent product launch, the "Scorpio", resulted in the

    Company winning the National Award for outstanding in-

    house research and development from the Department of

    Science and Industry of the Government in 2003. The

    Company has launched India's first tractor with turbo

    technology - the Mahindra Sarpanch 595 DI Super Turbo.

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    The Company's commitment to technology-driven

    innovation is reflected in Company's plans of setting up of

    the Mahindra Research Valley, a facility that will house the

    Company's engineering research and product development

    wings, under one roof.

    The M&M philosophy of growth is centered on its

    belief in people. As a result, the company has put in place

    initiatives that seek to reward and retain the best talent in

    the industry. M&M is also known for its progressive labourmanagement practices. In the community development

    sphere, the company has implemented several programs

    that have benefited the people and institutions in its areas

    of operations.

    Mahindra and Mahindra continues to be a solid

    company

    Company has registered a 28 % rise in its total vehicle

    sales at 11,484 units for August 2004 as against 8,946

    units in the corresponding period previous fiscal.

    Mahindra City was granted special economic zone (SEZ)

    which includes 100% tax holiday for the next 5 years

    and a 50% tax holiday for the next five years, exemption

    from customs duty, central excise, service tax,

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    education cess, central sales tax, and all local taxes

    levied by the state.

    Company has set up four overseas operations in Uruguay,

    Italy, Dubai and South Africa for sale of Scorpio and

    Bolero models in these markets.

    Enters in to segments such as retailing agri-inputs, under

    its own brand, manage corn and soya as collateral for

    banks, export fruit to European supermarkets.

    The Farm Equipment Sector is the first Tractor Company

    in the world to win the Deming Prize. Also, it is the fourth

    company in India and the 10th in the world, outside

    Japan, to win this prize.

    Launched India's first tractor with turbo technology in

    Patna, it is now eyeing to capture the tractor market inthe Bihar state in a big way.

    Regained dominance as a leader in both utility vehicles

    and tractors acquiring 50% market share.

    Recent Developments &Future plans:

    The companys long-term focus will continue to be

    MUVs. With the difference between the passenger car and

    the MUV segments fast disappearing, as the market for

    MUVs is likely to see a spurt in the near future. The

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    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MAHINDRA&MAHINDRA

    company plans to be the worlds biggest tractor maker by

    2006, intends to overcome lack of similar size in utility

    vehicles (UV) manufacture by being a niche player. Their

    tractors were selling well in the US, giving M&M a

    handsome market share in the 40-60 hp ranges in Texas.

    M&M`s main US markets are in the South and South West.

    The company is growing at rate of 80 per cent in the US.

    Apart from US it also plans to market its tractors in Europe

    through a sister-trading firm after rescheduling plans to setup a subsidiary in the region. The company will also launch

    85-horse power (HP) and 100HP models within the next 18

    months to meet the specific demand for high-powered

    tractors in the European and US markets. On the cards are

    a number of improvements on the Maxx, based on

    customer feedback. The company also plans to expand its

    appeal with new variants. For the low-end personal

    segment, M&M has introduced the Marshal Royale.

    Marketing competencies:

    Flanking its strategy to become a global player, M&M

    is banking on its key brand attributes which essentially

    signify three basic things: trust, reliability, and value-for-

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    money. The overall marketing game plan involves a

    strategy around creating strong brands, Customer Touch

    Build a database of Customers for targeted marketing,

    Providing a unique customer experience - Unique

    showrooms which give an entirely new buying experience

    are being planned and 40 dealerships would be converted

    into such modern showrooms during the current year and

    Improve Operational Efficiencies through outsourcing

    wherever required, value engineering and strategicsourcing.

    M&M has identified its 3 Weapons for the UV market.

    Each brand will be positioned uniquely targeting various

    spectrum of the market, the three brands - Scorpio, Bolero

    and Maxx. These are the three brands, which will be

    M&Ms future brand platform. Bolero will be one hub, while

    Scorpio will be one up market hub. The tractor segment

    where the company has 26% market share mainly

    depends on the distribution channels of the company.

    Production and distribution:

    The Companys manufacturing facilities are located at

    Kandivli, Nashik, Igatpuri, Nagpur, Zaheerabad, Jaipur and

    Rudrapur. Company has two main tractor manufacturing

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    plants located at Mumbai and Nagpur in Maharashtra.

    Apart from these two main manufacturing units, the Farm

    Equipment Sector has satellite plants located at Rudrapur

    in Uttaranchal and Jaipur in Rajasthan. The Company has a

    strong and extensive dealer network of over 450 dealers

    for sales and service of tractors and spare parts. 28 area

    offices, situated in all the major cities and covering all the

    principal states, manage this dealer network.

    Employee Relations

    Employee relations have been generally cordial at all

    plants of the company. They have recently introduced two

    new schemes, which are in the pipeline for its top-level

    managers in order to bring balance in their work and

    personal life. Under this scheme, company has changed its

    leave policy wherein it has introduced a compulsory 15-

    day leave for its middle and top-level officials. Besides this,

    the company also proposes to implement a compulsory

    early day-off at 5 pm at least once a week. They want their

    employees to spend value time with their family at home.

    They are trying to follow ergonomic rules for providing

    efficient working atmosphere, which is being effectively

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    implemented by companies abroad. The company is also

    focusing on training and development programmers for the

    career mapping of its employees and provides them with a

    meaningful professional career ahead. In addition, the

    company also plans to implement various development

    plans for training different level of employees. These

    measures will surely help in retaining its efficient

    contributors.

    Board of directors:

    Mr. Anand G Mahindra Vice-Chairman &Managing

    Director and the four Executive Directors of the Company

    manage the Company. The Board reviews and approves

    strategy and oversees the actions and results of

    management to ensure that the long-term objectives of

    enhancing stakeholder value are met. The Company

    presently has seventeen Directors. The Vice-Chairman &

    Managing Director and the four Executive Directors are

    Whole-time Directors. Reimbursement of expenses

    incurred in the discharge of their duties, the remuneration

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    that these Directors would be entitled to under the

    Companies Act, 1956 as Non-Executive Directors. The

    Company has not entered into any materially significant

    transactions with its Promoters, Directors or the

    Management or relatives, etc. that may have potential

    conflict with the interests of the Company at large.

    Dividend policy:

    The Directors have recommended a dividend at 90%(Rs.9 per share). The dividend, together with the tax on

    distributed profit, will absorb a sum of Rs.117.79 crores

    (previous year Rs.71.98 crores) and will be paid to those

    shareholders whose names stand registered in the books

    of the Company as on the book closure date.

    INDUSTRY PROFILE:

    The Indian automobile sector can be divided into

    several segments: 2 & 3 wheelers, passenger cars,

    commercial vehicles (Heavy CVs/ Medium CVs/Light CVs),

    utility vehicles (UVs) and tractors. The industry is highly

    capital intensive in nature. Though three-wheelers and

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    Passenger cars : 17%

    Utility vehicles : 23%

    Light commercial vehicles : 12%

    Heavy and multi commercial vehicles : 23%

    3 wheelers : 8%

    PORTER FIVE FORCES MODEL:

    Supply: The Indian automobile market is plagued withexcess capacity.

    Demand: Is largely cyclical in nature and dependent upon

    economic growth and per capita income. Seasonality is

    also a vital factor.

    Barriers to entry: High capital costs, technology,

    distribution network, and availability of auto components.

    Bargaining power of suppliers: Low, due to stiff

    competition and its fragmented nature.

    Bargaining power of customers: Very high due to

    availability of options.

    Competition: Except for heavy commercial vehicles

    segment, competition is stiff. The competition is expected

    to increase even further.

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    PROSPECT IN THE SECTOR:

    The government spending on infrastructure in roads

    and airports and higher GDP growth in the future

    could benefit the auto sector in general. This

    combined with a softer interest rate environment will

    play a vital role in providing a fillip to demand. Utility

    vehicle segment is expected to grow at around 8% in

    FY05.

    Though the market size is expected to grow by 12%

    -15%, competitive pressure could keep prices and

    margins under control.

    After three years in the wilderness, tractor industry

    seems to have finally come out of the trough as it

    grew by 10% during FY05. While good monsoon is a

    positive for the sector, given the fact that the country

    has had erratic rainfall in the past, volumes may not

    recover sharply. But the longer-term picture is

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    impressive in light of poor mechanization levels in the

    country.

    With an estimated 39% of CVs plying on the roads 10

    years old, demand for HCVs is expected to grow by

    8% in FY05. Also adding the positives are higher crop

    output, industrial sector growth and favorable interest

    rate environment. While the industry is cyclical in

    nature, we expect this factor to weaken in the

    medium term arising out of structural changes in the

    industry. The privatization of select state transport

    undertakings and hiking of bus fares bodes well for

    the bus segment as well.

    The reduction in peak customs duty from 30% to 25%

    in the budget will result in savings on the raw material

    front as well. Since raw material costs account for

    almost 50% of revenues of auto companies in general,

    this is a positive. Also, steel prices have shown some

    signs of softening and this is likely to have a positive

    impact on the margins of the players.

    We expect Indian auto majors to increase capital

    expenditure budget at an average of 4%-5% of

    revenues in FY05 as against around 2%-3%

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    historically. This would be towards product

    development and complying with new environmental

    regulations. With MNCs willing to sacrifice profitability

    for growth in the short-term, it has become imperative

    for domestic players to spruce up R&D efforts. At the

    same time, cash flow position is much stronger now

    given that most manufacturers have reduced working

    capital and debt. This would mean financing bulk of

    incremental capex from internal accruals.

    Product Pricing:

    The Indian automobiles are slowly shifting away from

    the price sensitiveness towards the value addition concept.

    Besides, even the SIAM has changed the norms of

    classification from the previously followed Price basis to

    the size/ length of the vehicle. Previously, the industry was

    highly price sensitive and the sales were dependent on

    price brackets. But the Indian customers perception is

    slowly changing and moving towards the value additions

    such as the size of the car, the style, the comfort, the level

    of service offered by the manufacturers, the variants

    available in the category etc. Even though the perception

    is changing, it is true that still price plays an important role

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    in the industry. The role of price may be very negligible in

    some segments, but in the other segments they are very

    much reactive to the price fluctuations. Thus, the some

    players in segments concentrate on the value addition to

    achieve competitive advantage, while the other players in

    the segments use price as weapon along with their core

    service. These players also offer discounts during festival

    season to boost the sales.

    GrowthDrivers:

    1.Economic growth: There is a direct co-relationship

    between the per capita income of the people and the

    demand for automobiles. Due to the increased business

    activity, the economy supports the industry growth as

    well as generates employment. The demand for

    automobile is expected to grow with the improved

    standard of living. Even though the economic growth

    rate during the year was 8.056 percent, the future

    average growth rate is expected to be around 6.5

    percent without any economic reforms.

    2.Income level: The level of income has got a direct

    impact on the sales of the automobile. The rise in

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    people. Along with this, even other industries

    performance will boost up. Thus, the demand mainly for

    utility vehicles increases with the better performance of

    the rural sector.

    4.Used car Segment: The industry saw a growth of

    around 30 percent in the used car segment during fiscal

    year. The profile of an Indian Car buyer has been

    changing due to the increasing purchasing power.Besides, the used cars are becoming affordable due to

    the reduced Equated Monthly Installments (EMI) and

    increased repayment period. A more active lifestyle,

    rising disposable income and lower cost of replacement

    are guiding the customers to change their cars once

    every three years now. Even though this market is

    unorganized to a large extent, the organized used car

    segment is slowly growing in India. With the

    manufacturers only coming forward to buy back their

    models, has in turn helped the sales of new vehicles.

    5.Availability of finance for both new and used

    vehicles: With the ease in the availability of finance

    both the new and used auto market segment has been

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    witnessing a growth. Previously, loans were provided

    only for the new vehicles, but now the financial

    institutions have come forward to offer the loans for

    used vehicles too. With the increasing competition

    among the finance providers, they are reducing the

    rates day by day. Along with this, even some companies

    go beyond the industry benchmark by financing up to

    seven year old vehicles, thereby helping the growth of

    the used auto segment. The interest rate has almosthalved in comparison to the rates during 1998 and has

    touched as low as 6.5 percent per annum. Auto

    manufacturers are using this as a tool to increase the

    sales. They are having tie-ups with the finance providers

    or floating their own finance companies.

    6.Infrastructure: Due to the increased investment in

    infrastructural projects especially in the development

    and improvement of road projects, the overall transport

    business activities and the tourism is expected to grow,

    which in turn creates a good demand for the utility

    vehicles.Traffic on roads is growing at a rate of 7 to

    10% per annum while the vehicle population growth for

    the past few years is of the order of 12% per annum. So

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    there is a need for the development of good

    infrastructural roads for the growth of the automobile

    industry. On the other side, poor road infrastructure and

    traffic congestion can be a bottleneck in the growth of

    vehicle industry.

    7.Exports: With the global players looking at developing

    vehicles that can be launched in multiple markets to

    reduce their developmental cost and to reduce their

    development costs, India is expected to increase itsexports. These giants are planning to use their Indian

    facilities as hub for their worldwide operations. With this

    move, General motors and Daimler Chrysler both have

    their R & D center in Bangalore, which will have an

    important role in International product development.

    Toyota has plans to turn India into its lowest cost-

    manufacturing center. MUL is also becoming a hub for

    small cars for Suzuki Motor Corporation. The countrys

    car sales and exports is expected to register around 8.5

    lakh units by the fiscal 2006-07, which will mainly be

    driven by compact and mid size car segment.

    TABLE 2: COST ANALYSIS

    As % of net sales FY05 FY04

    Raw Material 69.4 67.8

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    Staff Cost 5.0 5.9

    Other expenditure 13.1 13.4

    Source: India Infoline Research

    Raw material cost pressures was faced by most of the

    companies in the sector. For instance, raw material cost as

    a percentage of net sales increased by 5.7 percentage

    points for Punjab Tractors, 5.2 percentage points for BAL,

    2.8 percentage points for ALL and 2.5 percentage points

    for Tata Motors.Staff cost declined by 66bps and other expenditure

    increased 41bps as a percentage of net sales. Punjab

    Tractors and M&M enjoyed the benefit of a reduced staff

    cost by 370bps and 230bps as a percentage of net sales.

    Punjab Tractors maintained its margins in spite of a high

    rise in raw material cost due to savings in staff cost and

    other expenditure.

    Major competitors and Market position:

    Prior to 1980, Premier Automobiles Limited (PAL) andHindustan Motors (HM) had dominated the Indian

    passenger car market. With the entry of Maruti Udyog

    Limited (MUL) in 1980, the former players faced a tough

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    competition. Even though they were able to maintain their

    volumes, their market share drastically reduced. MUL

    dominated the passenger car market and faced no

    competition till early 1990s. After the liberalization took

    place, with the entry of foreign players, the problems

    began for MUL. MUL started loosing its market share

    slowly. During the initial stages of liberalization, since MUL

    had depreciated its plant already by then, no player in the

    industry was able to match MULs Maruti 800s entry price.But still, MUL faced tough time in the upper segment. With

    the launch of the models like Indica, Santro and Matiz by

    Tata, Hyundai and Daewoo respectively, in the price range

    of 3- 4.5 lakhs, MULs market share fell down sharply. But,

    however MUL is still the market leader in the passenger

    car segment, and was able to maintain its market share

    with its successful models like Maruti 800, Esteem, Zen,

    Wagon R and Alto. The overall market share of MUL fell

    from 70.2 percent in 1995-96 to 58.1 percent during 1999-

    00, which further declined to 51 percent as on February

    2004. This can be attributed to the increased competition

    from Hyundai, Tata motors, Fiat, General motors,

    Hindustan motors and Honda Siel.

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    In the A segment, MUL hold the monopoly position

    with its 800 model and no other player has been able to

    enter this segment. This model alone accounts for about

    25 percent of the total sales of the passenger cars. In the

    lower B segment, MUL holds the leadership position with

    its three models in the segments viz Zen, Alto and Wagon

    R, followed by Hyundai. But, model wise Santro tops the

    segment with its 37 percent share in this segment. There

    are three players in the upper B segment, with Tata in theNo.1 position. Its model Indica accounts to 86 percent of

    the total sales in the segment. MULs Esteem lost its

    leadership position to Tatas Indigo, which has dominated

    the market with 31 percent share. This ahs been followed

    by Hyundais percent and 22 percent respectively. Honda

    Siel occupies the dominant position with its City model.

    Toyotas Corolla and Hondas Accord are dominant in the D

    & E segments respectively Accent and Ford Ikon, whose

    market shares are 27. With the launch of new models in

    MUVs and SUVs, the utility vehicles sales are in an upward

    trend. In the utilities segment Mahindra & Mahindra has

    been able to maintain its leader position, followed by MUL,

    which manufactures the models like omni and versa. The

    launch of Qualis model has given a new look to the

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    industry. Even, it grabbed some share of passenger car

    industry, since the customers perceived it as a big car,

    which is even easy to drive, unlike other utility vehicles.

    The launch of Mahindras SUV Scorpio also moved along

    the lines of Qualis, dragging the passenger car customers.

    Watching the Scorpios success a new range of SUVs were

    launched by other players in the industry. The new SUV

    models, which are launched, recently are Marutis Jimny,

    Fords Endeavour, Suzukis Vitara, Chevrolets Forester andHyundais Terracan. With this move by the players, the red

    line between the utilities and the passenger car is slowly

    vanishing.

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    GRAPH 8: SHARE OF PLAYERS IN THE UTILITIES

    SEGMENT AS ON FEB2004-05

    Uti l it ies m arket s

    3%

    34%

    31 %

    15%

    161%

    Baja j Tem po

    M a h & m a hMarut i Udyog

    Telco

    Toyota K i rlos

    Others

    Suppliers:

    The Indian Auto component industry was started with

    an aim of reducing the imports and being self-sufficient.

    But, over a period of time this industry has achieved its

    objective along with being a good foreign exchange

    earner. The auto component industry maintained a low but

    positive growth rate mainly due to its export performance.

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    This industry has maintained a 10 percent to 12 percent

    share of exports in its total production. Indias automotive

    component industry manufactures the entire range of

    parts required by the domestic automobile industry and

    currently employs about 250,000 persons. Auto

    component manufacturers supply to two kinds of

    customers original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and

    the replacement market. The replacement market is

    characterized by the presence of several small-scalesuppliers who score over the organized players in terms of

    excise duty exemptions and lower overheads. The demand

    from the OEM market, on the other hand, is dependent on

    the demand for new vehicles. The strict reform by the

    Government with respect to the indigenization programme

    has led the OEMs to increase their indignation over the

    years. In India, the auto component manufacturers are

    found working close in proximity with the vehicle

    manufacturers ensuring the just in time deliveries. The

    trend of the auto component industry is to outsource

    manufacturing assembly to component suppliers while the

    OEM imperative is to cut costs, improve customer

    responsiveness and build to order, which helps them to

    build their own competitive advantage.

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    Government Regulations:

    Even though the auto sector has been deregularised,

    the government still vests the powers with itself to

    influence the industry, in terms of controlling the import,

    excise and customs duties and emission norms. After the

    lifting of licensing in 1993, 16 ventures came up to

    manufacture cars. The governments auto policy has

    restricted import of cars and automotive vehicles incompletely built (CBU) form or in completely knocked

    down (CKD) or in Semi knocked down (SKD) condition. And

    the car manufacturers were issued licenses to import

    components in CKD or SKD form only after execution of the

    Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Director

    General Foreign trade (DGFT). 11 companies signed MOU

    and they have agreed to bring in minimum foreign equity

    of US $ 50 mn, if a joint venture is involved in majority

    foreign equity ownership. Along with this, they have also

    agreed to indigenize components up to a minimum of 50

    percent in the third year and 70 percent in the fifth year.

    The government has permitted for 100% foreign equity

    investments for the manufacturing of automobiles and

    components. The Government will review the automotive

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    tariff structure periodically to encourage demand, promote

    the growth of the industry and prevent India from

    becoming a dumping ground for international rejects. The

    incidence of import tariff will be fixed in a manner so as to

    facilitate development of manufacturing capabilities as

    opposed to mere assembly without giving undue

    protection, to ensure balanced transition to open trade, to

    promote increased competition in the market and enlarge

    purchase options to the Indian customer. Appropriatemeasures including anti dumping duties will be put in

    place to check dumping and unfair trade practices. The

    conditions for import of new Completely Built Units (CBUs)

    will be as per Public Notice issued by the Director General

    Foreign Trade (DGFT) having regard to environment and

    safety regulations. Used vehicles imported into the country

    would have to meet CMVR, environmental requirements as

    per Public Notice issued by DGFT laying down specific

    standards and other criteria for such imports. The

    governments policy allows weighted tax deduction for the

    sponsored research and in-house R&D expenditure and

    also excise duty rebate of 1% of the gross turnover. The

    government is also encouraging auto design firms by

    providing them tax breaks and concessional duty. The

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