10/10/20151 climate change post mortem 2014 david henderson
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate ChangePost Mortem
2014
David Henderson
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Copenhagen - Outcome
• Political treaty with goal of 2 deg C limit– Each country sets own targets– No enforcement
• Green Fund to help LDC’s– $30 billion in 2012 rising to $100 billion
• Accounting and Strong Transparency
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Why did Copenhagen Fail
• BASIC group and US didn’t really want a stronger treaty
• Disarray in the Danish leadership– Sacked the person with best connections 2
weeks before the conference– PM didn’t know issues
• EU Politics• Cold Weather in Copenhagen• http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8426835.stm
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How are we Doing?• 2010 saw 6% rise in greenhouse gases
– China & India 8% increase in coal burning– US emissions up
• 2011 Emissions up 3.2% overall– China up 9.3% but CO2 per $GDP declined
– US dropped 1.7% from 2010– US dropped 7.7% since 2006 (recession+
more natural gas replacing coal)
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2012 How are we Doing?
• Actual emissions worse that IPCC worst case scenario
• IPCC appears too conservative on estimates
• Kyoto signers met 2012 targets• US rapidly replacing coal with
natural gas
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Show me the $$
• $30 Billion commitment not fully met
• Much comes from ‘old’ money already committed rather than adding new money.
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Durban Meeting 2012
• 2015 deadline for review of progress
• EU led by England formed coalition with LDC’s to split them from China
• Voluntary Reductions till 2020• Then Legally Binding Treaty
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Adaptation
• 2 degree or more warming probable– Present CO2 above 400 ppm
• Need to address mitigation– How do communities and nations adapt– What are financial responsibilities
• Developed Nations that caused the problem• Insurance Issues in ALL countries
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Fairness?
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Fairness?
• 1 Trillion Tonnes total emissions FOREVER
• Over half way there now• http://trillionthtonne.org/
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Mora et al Nature 2013
• By 2047, the averge temperatures will be hotter than anything you have experienced in the past 150 years.
• Tropics get there by 2030• Aggressive action pushes this 20
farther into the future.
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Things We Know for Certain
• Humans are causing a increase in CO2
• CO2 is a GHG and increases Global Temperature
• No one can predict where this is going
• If we mess things up, it will take 1000 years to fix it
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Limits of Models
• Assume linear behavior– Atmospheric circulation– Thermo-haline ocean circulation
• Gulf Stream in Atlantic
– Role of Clouds not known
• Collapse of Polar Vortex 2011 Winter• Historic collapse of Gulf Stream• Drastic shifts in Paleoclimate Record
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Thermohaline circulation
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Where are the Uncertainties?
• Did CO2 Rise before or after Temperature– End of Last Ice Age
– Nature Sept 30, 2012 – CO2 First
• What will be the effect of Clouds?– Some cool earth– Some warm earth– More moisture means more clouds
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Fracking – The End of Coal?
• Natural gas has replaced 35% of coal in electricity generation in the US
• Large reserves in Europe and China• Direct conversion 50% reduction in
GHG• New Gas turbine plants 70%• Combined Heat and Power 95%
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Fracking – The End of Coal?
• But Leaking Methane cancels some? of the advantage– EPA Rules capture this and save money if
adopted– Study in Texas found very low leakage– Second study found very high leaakage
• Fracking fluid pollutes land and water
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The Bottom Line
• “Need to reduce fossil fuel use by 90%”– Barney Ellison, Prof. chemistry, U.
Colorado
• Parallel with Acid Rain in Europe– Started arguing over 20-30% reductions– Science finally settled on 90% – 40 year process to reach goal
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Progress in 2014
• US-EPA 30% Reduction from Coal– 2005 baseline was high point– Only 16% more by 2030– Doesn’t meet Obama’s Copenhagen
Commitment
• China New Emission and Efficiency Law– Reduction in Coal– Predict no more growth in coal by 2025
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A Ray of Hope
• Science Vol 335, pp. 183-188 2012
• Analysis that is already moving into policy
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Alternate Approaches to Mitigation
• Reduce Methane Emissions– Coal mining– Oil and gas production– Cattle farming– Rice growing
• Methane leads to Ozone production– Crop loss– Respiratory problems
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Alternate Approaches to Mitigation
• Reduce Carbon Particulate– Cooking fires– Burning biomass– Diesel exhaust
• Carbon leads to Climate Warming– Some debate about how much
• Respiratory problems – Asthma
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Alternate Approaches to Mitigation
• Costs and Benefits– Reduce global temperature by 0.5 oC
2050– Prevent 0.7- 4.7 million deaths/year– Increase crop yield 30-135 million
metric tons per year in 2030 and beyond
– Benefits 3-20 times costs– Science Vol 335, pp. 183-188 2012
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Alternate Approaches to Mitigation
• Costs and Benefits– Benefits to same
countries paying costs
• Food Production• Science Vol 335,
p. 183 2012
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Alternate Approaches to Mitigation
• Costs and Benefits– Benefits to same
countries paying costs
• Deaths Avoided• Science Vol 335,
p. 188 2012
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Western Fuels Argument
• Plants do grow better in high CO2
• But – Only with enough nutrients
• High CO2 Plants are not as nutritious– Animals need to eat more of them to
live– NC Study Insects starve on them – get
full before get sufficient nutrition
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CO2 440 ppm
• C4 Plants- Recent evolution– Less water lost through leaves– Corn, crabgrass
• C3 Plants – Most plants– Require more water– Need lower temperatures– Wheat, Barley, Rice, Sugar Beets
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Effects of Global Warming Virtually
Certain
• Stratospheric Cooling• Ozone Layer Depletion• Changes in Jet Stream
– Shifts in weather patterns
• Loss of Arctic Polar Vortex 2011
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Effects Here Now
• Vermont and New Hampshire– 40% increase in precipitation– 20% decrease in soil moisture
• Alaska – 9 deg F temp increase in 1990’s– Permafrost melting
• Trees and electric poles fall over• Roads sink
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Loss of Coastland 2100
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Global Migration
• Pew Center for Climate Research– 300 million people displaced by 2050
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List of Short Science Games• European Response to SO2 Pollution – Helsinki 1984 (Chemistry, ENVS)• European Response to NOx Pollution – Sophia 1987 (Chemistry, ENVS)• Challenging the USDA Food Pyramid, 1991 (Food and Nutrition)• Climate Change in Copenhagen – 2009 (Chemistry, ENVS)• Feeding Africa, 2002 (Chemistry, Biology)• Chemistry at Karlsruhe, 1860 (Chemistry, History of
Science)• The Pluto Debate, 1999-2006 (Astronomy, Physics)• Ways and Means, 1935 (Math)• Diet and the Killer Diseases – 1976 McGovern Hearings (Food and
Nutrition)
• London 1854: Cesspits, Cholera, and the Conflict over the Broad Street Pump (Biology, Microbiology)
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List of Long Science Games• Acid Rain in Europe, 1979-1989
– SO2 Nox, Catalytic Converters and Leaded Gas
• Kansas 1999: Evolution or Creationism– Includes Big Bang Cosmology
• The Trial of Galileo: Aristotelianism, the “New Cosmology,” and the Catholic Church, 1616-33– Cosmology and Astronomy
• Darwin, the Copley Medal and the Rise of Naturalism
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Instructor Resources• Instructor’s Manual for each game
– Suggested syllabus– Tips on role assignment and game
management
• Student Roles (20-30 per game)• Journal articles for students• Facebook - Faculty Lounge (Private
Group)
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Web Resources• http://reacting.barnard.edu• www.rttp.org• https://sites.google.com/site/reactingscience/home• Journal Collections– `Food Pyramid– Acid Rain (SO2 and NOx)– Diet and Killer Diseases (Dietary fat)– Feeding Africa (GM Food)
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Anecdotal Observations• Students get to know each other early
(Karlsruhe 2nd week of semester)• Breaks down typical polarizations in class
– Race, Class level, gender– Students work outside class in groups– Many work with student they might never
talk to• Students were more interactive through
term.
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General Observations
• Virtually 100% attendance during games• Students engaged• Students have fun• Encourages group work in Factions• Each game provides leadership
opportunities• Peer Pressure works toward deeper
engagement
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What did you Like?
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Acknowledgements• NSF-CCLI Award 0920441 2009-
2013• Mark Carnes• Center for Assessment Research and
Study – JMU– Donna Sundre– Megan Rogers