10th conference on aviation, range, and - … · gabriel r. elkin, mit lincoln lab., lexington, ma;...

10TH CONFERENCE ON

AVIATION, RANGE, AND

AEROSPACE METEOROLOGY

/f Q ) [flights above 25,000 ft, 10 September 2001

B/TIB HannoverSB**?

Contrails over Eastern USA

NOAA-15 AVHRR IR image, 12;19 UTC 25 February, 2002

Frequency

Persistent contrail conditions from RUC, September 2001

NOAA-15 AVHRR IR image, 12:32 UTC 12 September 2001

Frequency

Contrail coverage from NOAA-16 AVHRR, September 2001

Contrail (%)

13-16 MAY 2002PORTLAND, OREGON

AMERICAN

METEOROLOGICAL

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10TH CONFERENCE ON AVIATION, RANGE AND AEROSPACE METEOROLOGYPAGE

SESSION 1: OVERVIEW

1 1.2 AN UPDATE TO THE FAA'S NATIONAL AIRSPACE SYSTEM WEATHER ARCHITECTURE. Cheryl G. Souders,FAA, Washington, DC; and R. C. Showalter

5 1.3 THE ROLE OF ITWS IN THE NATIONAL AIRSPACE SYSTEM MODERNIZATION: AN UPDATE. Cheryl G. Souders,FAA, Washington, DC; and R. C. Showalter

9 1.4 THE AVIATION DIGITAL DATA SERVICE (ADDS) PROOF OF CONCEPT DEMONSTRATION. Kimberlea D. Price,FAA William J. Hughes Technical Center, Atlantic City, NJ; and D. L. Sims and S. McGettigan

13 1.5 ADVANCED WEATHER PROJECTS DESIRED TO IMPROVE SPACE LAUNCH FROM THE EASTERN RANGE ANDKENNEDY SPACE CENTER. William P. Roeder, U.S. Air Force, 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL; and F.J. Merceret, B. F. Boyd, F. C. Brody, and D. E. Harms

18 1.6 NEW WEATHER PRODUCTS DEVELOPED BY THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION'S AV&TIONWEATHER RESEARCH PROGRAM. Gloria J. Kulesa, FAA, Washington, DC; and P. J. Kirchoffer, D. J. Pace, W.L. Fellner, J. E. Sheets, and V. S. Travers

20 1.7 TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AT THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER: DEVELOPING, TESTING, ANDIMPLEMENTING NEW FORECAST TOOLS. David I. Knapp, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center, KansasCity, MO; and R. J. Olson, F. R. Mosher, J. A. May, and S. R. Silberberg

24 1.8 THE 20-KM RAPID UPDATE CYCLE—OVERVIEW AND IMPLICATIONS FOR AVIATION APPLICATIONS. StanleyG. Benjamin, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown, K. J. Brundage, D. Devenyi, G. A. Grell, D. Kim, T. G.Smimova, T. L. Smith, B. E. Schwartz, S. S. Weygandt, and G. S. Manikin

28 1.9 ENHANCEMENTS TO TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO IMPROVE AVIATION WEATHER SERVICES.Gabriel R. Elkin, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA; and 0. J. Newell and M. E. Weber

32 1.10 AVIATION AND WEATHER—A NEW INITIATIVE IN GERMANY. Thomas Hauf, Univ. of Hannover, Hanover,

Germany; and U. Schumann and H. Leykauf

SESSION 2: AVIATION WEATHER CASE STUDIES/ACCIDENT REVIEWS

33 2.1 SPREADING OF ISOLATED CONTRAILS DURING THE 2001 AIR TRAFFIC SHUTDOWN. Patrick Minnis,NASA/LARC, Hampton, VA; and L. Nguyen, D. P. Duda, and R. Palikonda

37 2.2 AN UNUSUAL ICING CASE: 20 MARCH 2000, DENVER, COLORADO. M. K. Politovich, NCAR, Boulder, CO; andB. C. Bernstein, J. Hopewell, T. Lindholm, L. Gauerke, C. Knabel, D. Hazen, and B. Martner

41 2.3 NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF A CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE ENCOUNTER. Fred H. Proctor, NASA/LARC,Hampton, VA; and D. W. Hamilton and R. L. Bowles

45 2.4 LOW ALTITUDE WINDSHEAR AT MAJOR AUSTRALIAN AIRPORTS AND THE RISKS TO AVIATION. Rodney J.Potts, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

2.5 SUMMARY OF THE HELIOS 96,863 FOOT WORLD RECORD FLIGHT. Edward H. Teets, NASA Dryden FlightResearch Center, Edwards, CA; and C. Donohue

49 2.6 A CASE STUDY OF ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AT 2-19 KM OVER VANDENBURG AFB DURING PASSAGE OFA CYCLONE. G. D. Nastrom, St. Cloud State Univ., St. Cloud, MN; and F. D. Eaton and E. Boll

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53 2.7 CASE STUDIES OF SELECTED RUNWAY VISUAL RANGE (RVR) EVENTS AT THREE MAJOR USA AIRPORTS.David A. Hazen, Titan/System Resources Corporation, Billerica, MA; and T. A. Seliga, L. G. Jacobs, and P.Narvett

SESSION 3: AVIATION OPERATIONS SUPPORT

57 3.1 DEVELOPMENT OF AUTOMATED AVIATION WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR OCEANIC/REMOTE REGIONS:SCIENTIFIC AND PRACTICAL CHALLENGES, RESEARCH STRATEGIES, AND FIRST STEPS. Paul H. Herzegh,NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. R. Williams, T. A. Lindholm, F. R. Mosher, C. Kessinger, R. Sharman, J. D. Hawkins,and D. B. Johnson

61 3.2 DEVELOPMENT OF AUTOMATED NATIONAL CEILING AND VISIBILITY PRODUCTS: SCIENTIFIC ANDPRACTICAL CHALLENGES, RESEARCH STRATEGIES, AND FIRST STEPS. Paul Herzegh, NCAR, Boulder, CO;and K. R. Petty, S. G. Benjamin, R. Rasmussen, T. Tsui, G. Wiener, and P. Zwack

65 3.3 MITIGATING THE IMPACT OF OCEANIC WEATHER HAZARDS ON TRANSOCEANIC FLIGHTS. Alan Nierow, FAA,Washington, DC; and R. C. Showalter, F. R. Mosher, and T. Lindholm

69 3.4 OCEANIC WEATHER: A PROGRAM TO ENHANCE THE QUALITY AND TIMELINESS OF AVIATION WEATHERINFORMATION FOR REMOTE AND OCEANIC REGIONS. Tenny A. Lindholm, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Burns

73 3.5 THE COLLABORATIVE CONVECTIVE FORECAST PROJECT FROM THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER'SPERSPECTIVE. Horace R. Hudson, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO; and F. P. Foss

77 3.6 USING ORPG TO ENHANCE NEXRAD PRODUCTS TO SUPPORT FAA CRITICAL SYSTEMS. David J. Smalley,MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA; and B. J. Bennett

3.7 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN AN ATMOSPHERIC DECISION AID TO BETTER CHARACTERIZE OPTICALTURBULENCE AND HIGH CLOUDS. Randy J. Lefevre, U.S. Air Force, Kirtland AFB, NM

81 3.8 IMPLEMENTING ADDS OPERATIONALLY AT THE NWS AVIATION WEATHER CENTER. Lynn Sherretz,

NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and G. Pratt, G. Thompson, and J. Henderson

SESSION 4: ICING

85 4.1 ISSUES IN FORECASTING ICING SEVERITY. M. K. Politovich, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. McDonough and B. C.Bernstein

89 4.2 SUPERCOOLED LIQUID WATER CLOUD PROPERTIES DERIVED FROM GOES: COMPARISONS WITH IN-SITUAIRCRAFT MEASUREMENTS. William L. Smith, Jr., NASA/LARC, Hampton, VA; and P. Minnis, B. C. Bernstein,A. D. Rapp, and P. W. Heck

93 4.3 ADWICE-ADVANCED DIAGNOSIS AND WARNING SYSTEM FOR AIRCRAFT ICING ENVIRONMENTS. C.Leifeld, Univ. of Hannover, Hannover, Germany; and T. Hauf, A. Tafferner, and H. Leykauf

96 4.4 DETAILED COMPARISONS OF AIRCRAFT ICING ENVIRONMENTS AND MODEL-PREDICTED MIRCOPHYSICS.Gregory Thompson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rasmussen and B. Bernstein

100 4.5 AN IN-FLIGHT AIRFRAME ICING NOWCAST FOR USE WITH THE AEROSONDE. Jade R. Soddell, Univ. ofTechnology, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and K. McGuffie and G. J. Holland

104 4.6 DUAL-POLARIZATION RADAR AS A TOOL FOR OPERATIONAL IDENTIFICATION OF DIFFERENT TYPES OFMETEOROLOGICAL AND NON-METEOROLOGICAL TARGETS. Alexander V. Ryzhkov, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahomaand NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. M. Janish, T. J. Schuur, P. Zhang, and K. L. Elmore

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10TH CONFERENCE ON AVIATION, RANGE AND AEROSPACE METEOROLOGY

108 4.7 RAIN-SNOW DISCRIMINATION WITH POLARIMETRIC RADAR. Edward A. Brandes, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J.Vivekanandan and R. M. Rasmussen

112 4.8 MEAN VOLUME RADIUS ESTIMATES FROM AIRCRAFT, RADIOMETER, AND DOPPLER RADAROBSERVATIONS DURING THE AIRS FIELD PROJECT. Ismail Gultepe, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and G. A.Isaac, D. Hudak, and S. Sekelsky

SESSION 5: AVIATION OPERATIONS SUPPORT: PART 2

116 5.1 AN AUTOMATED, OPERATIONAL TWO HOUR CONVECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE CORRIDORINTEGRATED WEATHER. Robert A. Boldi, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA; and M. M. Wolfson, W. J. Dupree,R. J. Johnson, Jr., K. E. Theriault, B. E. Forman, and C. A. Wilson

120 5.2 EN ROUTE WEATHER DEPICTION BENEFITS OF THE NEXRAD VERTICALLY INTEGRATED LIQUID WATERPRODUCT UTILIZED BY THE CORRIDOR INTEGRATED WEATHER SYSTEM. Michael Robinson, MIT LincolnLab., Lexington, MA; and J. E. Evans and B. A. Crowe

124 5.3 SHORT-TERM (0-2HR) AUTOMATED GROWTH FORECAST OF MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMSASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE, DAYTIME FORCING. Dan Megenhardt, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. K.Mueller

128 5.4 TACTICAL WEATHER DECISION SUPPORT TO COMPLEMENT "STRATEGIC TRAFFIC FLOW MANAGEMENTFOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER. James E. Evans, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA

132 5.5 FORECASTING CONVECTIVE WEATHER USING MULTI-SCALE DETECTORS AND WEATHERCLASSIFICATION—ENHANCEMENTS TO THE MIT LINCOLN LABORATORY TERMINAL CONVECTIVEWEATHER FORECAST. William J. Dupree, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA; and M. M. Wolfson, R. J. Johnson,Jr., K. E. Theriault, B. E. Forman, R. A. Boldi, and C. A. Wilson

136 5.6 TRAJECTORY-BASED PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT OF AVIATION WEATHER INFORMATION. LaurenceVigeant-Langlois, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and R. J. Hansman, Jr.

140 5.7 LOCAL AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS OF ATLANTIC CANADA. Robert E. Robichaud, MSC, Gander, NF,Canada; and J. E. Mullock and K. A. Johnson

142 5.8 ASSIMILATION OF RADAR DATA FOR SHORT TERM FORECASTING OF SNOWBAND USING A MESOSCALEMODEL: SIMULATED DATA EXPERIMENTS. Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Crook and R. M.Rasmussen

146 5.9 IMPROVED SHORT-TERM PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF CEILING AND VISIBILITY. Stephen M. Leyton,Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch

150 5.10 VISIBILITY FORECASTS FROM RUC20. Tracy Lorraine Smith, NOAA/FSL and CIRA/Colorado State Univ.,Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and J. M. Brown

154 5.11 RADIATION FOG: UPS AIRLINES CONCEPTUAL MODELS AND FORECAST METHODS. Randy Baker, UPSAirlines, Louisville, KY; and J. Cramer and J. Peters

160 5.12 THE IMPACT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON LANDING TRAFFIC AT FRANKFURT AIRPORT (GERMANY)—A CASESTUDY. Thomas Haul, Univ. of Hannover, Hannover, Germany; and M. Sasse

162 5.13 AIRCRAFT ENCOUNTERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN ENROUTE VS. TERMINAL AIRSPACE ABOVE MEMPHIS,TENNESSEE. Dale A. Rhoda, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA; and E. A. Kocab and M. L. Pawlak

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166 5.14 LOCAL AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS: HOW METEOROLOGISTS LEARN FROM PILOTS. John E. Mullock,MSC, Kelowna, BC, Canada; and K. A. Johnson

SESSION 6: SPACE VEHICLE OPERATIONS SUPPORT

168 6.1 MODERNIZATION OF THE SPACE LAUNCH RANGES METEOROLOGICAL SUBSYSTEM ARCHITECTURE.Timothy L. Wilfong, Lockheed Martin Mission Systems, Santa Maria, CA; and P. Conant, K. Winters, and C.Crosiar

172 6.2 KODIAK STAR: AN OVERVIEW OF OPERATIONAL WEATHER SUPPORT AT THE KODIAK LAUNCH COMPLEXFOR ALASKA'S FIRST ORBITAL SPACE LAUNCH. James E. Sardonia, U.S. Air Force, 45th Weather Squadron,Patrick AFB, FL; and J. T. Madura

175 6.3 LIGHTNING PROTECTION AT THE KENNEDY SPACE CENTER AND CAPE CANAVERAL AIR FORCE STATION.Pedro J. Medelius, Dynacs, Inc., Kennedy Space Center, FL; and W. P. Roeder and J. Willingham

178 6.4 WIND PROFILE MEASUREMENTS AND FORECASTS AT THE GUIANA SPACE CENTER, EUROPE'S SPACEPORT.Isabelle J. Donet, Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales, Kourou, French Guiana

182 6.5 BOUNDARY LAYER INFLUENCES ON FORECASTING TOXIC CORRIDORS AT THE EASTERN RANGE INSUPPORT OF SPACE LAUNCH. Billie F. Boyd, U.S. Air Force, 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL; and D. E.Harms, K. A. Winters, P. N. Rosati, C. R. Parks, and K. B. Overbeck

6.6 OBSERVATIONS OF THE DECAY OF ELECTRIC FIELDS, REFLECTIVITY AND MICROPHYSICS IN ANVILS NEARKENNEDY SPACE CENTER. J. E. Dye, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Defer, C. A. Grainger, M. Bateman, and D.Mach

186 6.7 VERIFICATION OF WORLD-WIDE SPACE STATION EMERGENCY LANDING FORECASTS: CHALLENGES ANDRESULTS. Timothy D. Oram, NOAA/NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group and Cimarron, Houston, TX

189 6.8 NATURAL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NATIONAL AERONAUTICS SPACEADMINISTRATION'S SECOND GENERATION REUSABLE LAUNCH VEHICLE. Barry C. Roberts, NASA/MSFC,Huntsville, AL; and G. Overbey, F. Leahy, and G. W. Batts

191 6.9 REFERENCE AND STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MODELS. Dale L. Johnson, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and B. C.Roberts and W. W. Vaughan

195 6.10 ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OF STRATOSPHERIC MOUNTAIN WAVES: SOARING THE PERLAN AIRCRAFT TO30 KM. Edward H. Teets, Jr., NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, CA; and E. J. Carter

199 6.11 METEOROLOGICAL SUPPORT AND MODELING FOR THE NASA X-43A HYPERSONIC RESEARCH VEHICLE.Elizabeth J. Carter, Firnspiegel LLC, Kings Beach, CA; and E. H. Teets, Jr.

6.12 PAPER WITHDRAWN

SESSION 7: SENSORS AND SYSTEMS

203 7 1 PROCESSOR (WARP)-jay

206 7.2 J WEB-BASED DISPLAY AND ACCESS POINT TO THE FAA'S INTEGRATED TERMINAL WEATHER SYSTEM

C e i l and 5 RIS6/' " ̂ L e X I ' n 9 t ° n ' M A : ^ R' Ha"0Wel11 N" DeLosa> D"Eberle'L Owirka' L

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 0 T H CONFERENCE ON AVIATION, RANGE AND AEROSPACE METEOROLOGYPAGE

210 7.3 THE CORRIDOR INTEGRATED WEATHER SYSTEM (CIWS). James E. Evans, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA;and K. Carusone, M. Wolfson, B. Crowe, D. Meyer, and D. Klingle-Wilson

216 7.4 THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL SYSTEM NOWVIV DURING THE FIELD CAMPAIGN WAKEOP. MichaelFreeh, Institute fur Physik de Atmosohare & German Aerospace Center, Wessling, Germany; and A. Tafferner

220 7.5 NOAA/ETL'S POLARIZATION RADAR-MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SYSTEM FOR DETECTING IN-FLIGHT ICINGCONDITIONS—PROGRESS IN THE DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT OF GRIDS. Timothy L Schneider, NOAA/ETL,Boulder, CO; and R. F. Reinking, W. C. Campbell, K. A. Clark, J. S. Gibson, D. A. Hazen, S. Y. Matrosov, K. P.Moran, and M. J. Post

224 7.6 EVALUATION OF A REMOTE ICING DETECTION TECHNIQUE USING X-, KA-, AND W-BAND RADAR ANDMICROWAVE RADIOMETER OBSERVATIONS. John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Vivekanandan andG.Zhang

228 7.7 MT. WASHINGTON ICING SENSORS PROJECT (MWISP) RESULTS. Charles C. Ryerson, U.S. Army Corps ofEngineers Cold Regions Research & Engineering Lab., Hanover, NH; and G. G. Koenig, M. K. Politovich, and A.L. Reehorst

232 7.8 CLOUD/HYDROMETEOR INITIALIZATION IN THE 20-KM RUC USING GOES AND RADAR DATA. Stanley G.Benjamin, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and D. Kim and J. M. Brown

237 7.9 EVALUATION OF AN AIRBORNE RADAR TURBULENCE DETECTION ALGORITHM. Larry B. Cornman, NCAR,Boulder, CO; and S. Gerding, G. Meymaris, and J. Williams

7.10 AN ANALYSIS OF THE WIND VECTOR ERROR ESTIMATE FOR THE AUTOMATED METEOROLOGICALPROFILING SYSTEM'S LOW RESOLUTION FLIGHT ELEMENT AS COMPARED TO THE HIGH RESOLUTIONFLIGHT ELEMENT. B. Glenn Overbey, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and F. B. Leahy and B. C. Roberts

7.11 AN ANALYSIS OF THE THERMODYNAMIC OPERATIONAL COMPARABILITY BETWEEN THE AUTOMATEDMETEOROLOGICAL PROFILING SYSTEM'S LOW RESOLUTION FLIGHT ELEMENT AND THE METEOROLOGICALSOUNDING SYSTEM. Frank B. Leahy, NASA/MSFC and Raytheon, Huntsville, AL; and B. G. Overbey and B. C.Roberts

241 7.12 SENSITIVITY OF GROUND-BASED RADIOMETRIC OBSERVATIONS TO ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATUREINVERSIONS. Komandur E. Rangarajan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Vivekanandan

245 7.13 LIGHTNING DETECTION AND RANGING (LDAR II): RESULTS FROM GLOBAL ATMOSPHERICS, INC. DALLAS-FORT WORTH RESEARCH NETWORK. Nicholas W. S. Demetriades, Global Atmospherics, Inc., Tucson, AZ; andM. J. Murphy and R. L Holle

SESSION 8: SENSORS AND SYSTEMS: PART 2

249 8.1 JUNEAU AIRPORT WIND SYSTEM (JAWS), A PROGRESS REPORT. Cynthia Schauland, FAA, Washington, DC;and D. Strawbridge, D. Piccione, D. Bryan, C. Turner, and D. Hedenberg

251 8.2 AN ASSESSMENT OF ICE-FREE WIND SENSORS FOR THE JUNEAU AIRPORT WIND SYSTEM. Thomas Carty,FAA William J. Hughes Technical Center, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ; and M. McKinney and F. Law

255 8.3 IMPLEMENTATION OF A DOPPLER LIGHT DETECTION AND RANGING (LIDAR) SYSTEM FOR THE HONG KONGINTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. Chi Ming Shun, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong; and S. Y. Lau

8.4 FLIGHT CONDITIONS ENCOUNTERED BY THE 2-MICRON ACLAIM LIDAR DURING CAMEX IV. L. J.Ehernberger, NASA, Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, CA; and R. K. Bogue, E. H. Teets, G. W. Grew, P.Brockman, 1.0. Clark, P. Gatt, S. C. Tucker, C. Ashburn, and C. Rowland

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257 8 5 EFFECTS OF SCATTERING DUE TO ICE PARTICLES ON MEASUREMENT OF DOWN-WELLING RADIATIONOBSERVATION OF K AND V-BAND RADIOMETERS. J. Vivekanandan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Zhang

261 8.6 THE HOTPLATE SNOWGAUGE. Roy M. Rasmussen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Hallett, R. Purcell, J. Cole, and

M. Tryhane

265 8.7 PROGRESS TOWARDS DRIZZLE DETECTION ON ASOS. Charles G. Wade, NCAR, Boulder, CO

269 8.8 AUTOMATIC DETECTION OF VOLCANIC ASH USING METEOSAT. Tania R. Scott, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks.,

UK; and K. A. McDonald and R. W. Lunnon

273 8.9 DETECTION OF AIRBORNE VOLCANIC ASH WITH GOES: ISSUES AND PROSPECTS FOR THE COMINGDECADE. Gary P. Ellrod, NOAA/NESDIS/ORA, Camp Springs, MD

277 8.10 APPLYING FX CONNECT TO THE PROTOTYPE AVIATION COLLABORATIVE EFFORT AT THE FORT WORTH AIRROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTER. Dennis M. Rodgers, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and T. Amis

281 8.11 DEMONSTRATION OF THE MARINE STRATUS FORECAST (MSF) PRODUCT. Cynthia B. Fidalgo, FAA William J.Hughes Technical Center, Atlantic City, NJ; and D. L. Sims, S. L. McGettigan, and J. Weinrich

285 8.12 COMPUTER BASED TRAINING FOR ISSUING LIGHTNING ADVISORIES AT CAPE CANAVERAL AIR FORCESTATION / KENNEDY SPACE CENTER. William P. Roeder, U.S. Air Force, 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB,FL; and S. C. Jacobs, J. E. Sardonia, J. W. Weems, C. S. Pinder, and M. S. Christie

289 8.13 DETECTION OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE GLOBE. Frederick R. Mosher, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/AviationWeather Center, Kansas City, MO

293 8.14 UPDATE ON THE NCAR THUNDERSTORM NOWCAST SYSTEM. Cynthia Mueller, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T.Saxen, R. Roberts, and J. Wilson

297 8.15 RAPID UPDATE OF THE NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY SEVERE WEATHER DETECTIONALGORITHMS. Christopher W. Porter, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and T. M.Smith

SESSION 9: FORECAST EVALUATION/VERIFICATION

299 9.1 INTEGRATED TURBULENCE FORECASTING ALGORITHM 2001 METEOROLOGICAL EVALUATION. Jeffrey A.Weinrich, Titan Systems Corporation, Atlantic City, NJ; and D. Sims

303 9.2 MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY & TURBULENCE—AVIATION FORECASTS & AVOIDANCE. Thomas H. Fahey IIINorthwest Airlines, Inc., Minneapolis, MN; and M. Pfleiderer and R. Sharman

307 9.3 VERIFICATION RESULTS OF A TURBULENCE INDEX APPLIED TO LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHEREGordon R. Brooks, Air Force Weather Agency. Offutt AFB, NE; and I. Gotchel, C. M. Stock J E Passner and D'I. Knapp

9.4 PAPER WITHDRAWN

311 9.5 VERIFICATION OF THE IN-FLIGHT ICING DIAGNOSTIC ALGORITHM (IIDA). Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder,CO; and J. L. Mahoney and T. L. Fowler. Mahoney and T. L. Fowler

IC IIDA IC. Bernstein

315 9.6 ANALYSIS OF PROBLEMATIC IIDA ICING DIAGNOSES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. Michael Chapman,NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. C. Bernstein


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319 9.7 EVALUATION OF LOW-LEVEL AIRCRAFT ICING FORCASTS FROM MT. WASHINGTON SUMMITOBSERVATIONS. Rebecca J. Stanley, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH; and J. P. Koermer and C. C.Ryerson

323 9.8 THE REAL-TIME VERIFICATION SYSTEM (RTVS) AND ITS APPLICATION TO AVIATION WEATHERFORECASTING. Jennifer Luppens Mahoney, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Henderson, B. G. Brown, J. E.Hart, A. Loughe, C. Fischer, and B. Sigren

327 9.9 VERIFICATION OF RUC SURFACE FORECASTS AT MAJOR U.S. AIRPORT HUBS. Barry E. Schwartz, NOAA/FSL,Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin

9.10 PAPER WITHDRAWN

331 9.11 A COMPARISON OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES. Rich DeLaura, MIT Lincoln Lab.,Lexington, MA; and R. E. Cole, N. A. Crook, and J. Sun

335 9.12 THE VALUE IN PROBABILITIES FOR AERODROME FORECASTS. Ross Keith, Bureau of Meteorology and JamesCook Univ., Townsville, Australia; and I. Mason

9.13 TAF VERIFICATION. Glen R. Harris, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., UK

339 9.14 TAF QUALITY IMPROVEMENT (TQI) EFFORTS IN CANADA. Alister Ling, MSC, Edmonton, AB, Canada

343 9.15 USES OF REAL-TIME VERIFICATION TO IMPROVE TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS. David R. Manning,NOAA/NWSFO, Tulsa, OK; and S. A. Amburn and J. M. Frederick

9.16 STATISTICAL MEASURES OF THE SKILL OF MARINE STRATUS FORECAST MODELS. F. Wesley Wilson, NCAR,Boulder, CO

SESSION 10: TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEER

347 10.1 AUTOMATED WIND SHEAR ALERTS FOR AVIATION—STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES. Thomas H. Fahey III,Northwest Airlines, Inc., Minneapolis, MN; and M. A. Isaminger and A. VanGerpen

351 10.2 RESULTS FROM THE NCAR INTEGRATED TURBULENCE FORECASTING ALGORITHM (ITFA) FOR PREDICTINGUPPER LEVEL CLEAR-AIR TURBULENCE. Robert Sharman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Tebaldi, J. Wolff, and G.Wiener

355 10.3 A REAL-TIME TURBULENCE MODEL (RTTM) DESIGNED FOR THE OPERATIONAL PREDICTION OF AVIATIONTURBULENCE ENVIRONMENTS. M. L Kaplan, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, North Carolina; and J. J.Charney, K. T. Waight III, Y.-L. Lin, K. M. Lutz, A. W. Huffman, and J. D. Cetola

359 10.4 PREDICTING CLEAR-AIR TURBULENCE FROM DIAGNOSIS OF UNBALANCED FLOW. Steven E. Koch,NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and F. Caracena

364 10.5 A MODELING INVESTIGATION OF NEAR-CLOUD TURBULENCE. Todd P. Lane, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R.Sharman and T. L. Clark

367 10.6 A CASE STUDY OF A HIGH ALTITUDE TURBULENCE OUTBREAK. Paul C. Fike, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/AviationWeather Center, Kansas City, MO; and S. R. Silberberg

10.7 TURBULENCE ASSOCIATED WITH MOUNTAIN-WAVE INDUCED ROTORS. James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA

371 10.8 CONVECTIVELY INDUCED TURBULENCE ENCOUNTERED DURING NASA'S FALL-2000 FLIGHT EXPERIMENTS.David W. Hamilton, NASA/LARC, Hampton, VA; and F. H. Proctor

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EAGI375 10.9 LOW ALTITUDE BUOYANCY WAVE TURBULANCE-A POTENTIAL AVIATION SAFETY THREAT. Paul E.

Bieringer, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA

379 10.10 AN IMPROVED GUST FRONT DETECTION CAPABILITY FOR THE ASR-9 WSP. Seth Troxel, MIT Lincoln Lab.,Lexington, MA; and B. Frankel, B. Echels, and C. Rolfe

383 1011 CASE STUDIES OF TURBULENCE AND VERTICAL MOTION EXPERIENCED BY RESEARCH AIRCRAFT DURINGMAP-SOP SOUTH FOEHN CASES. Petra Malcher, Univ. of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Tirol, Austria; and H. Puempeland I.Vergeiner

387 10.12 APPLICATION AND VERIFICATION OF CLEAR-AIR TURBULENCE (CAT) FORECAST INDICES IN KOREA. Young-Gon Lee, MRI, Seoul, Korea; and B.-C. Choi, R. Sharman, and G. Wiener

391 10.13 OPERATIONAL EXPERIENCE WITH TDWR/LLWAS-NE INTEGRATION AT THE DALLAS, TX INTERNATIONALAIRPORT (DFW). David W. Miller, MIT Lincoln Lab., Dallas, TX; and B. E. Crowe and J. D. Shaw

JOINT SESSION J1: CLIMATOLOGY AND AVIATION (Joint with the 13th Conference on Applied Climatology)

J1 J1.1 JET AIRCRAFT CONTRAILS: SURFACE TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS DURING THE AIRCRAFT GROUNDINGSOF SEPT. 11-13, 2001. David J. Travis, Univ. of Wisconsin, Whitewater, Wl ; and A. M. Carleton and R. G.Lauritsen

J5 J1.2 A STUDY OF CONTRAIL SPREADING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. David P. Duda, Hampton Univ., Hampton, VA;and P. Minnis and R. Palikonda

J9 J1.3 CONTRAIL CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE USA FROM MODIS AND AVHRR DATA. Rabindra Palikonda, AS&M, Inc.,Hampton, VA; and P. Minnis, P. K. Costulis, and D. P. Duda

J13 J1.4 ANALYSIS OF LIGHTNING CLOUD-TO-GROUND FLASH ACTIVITY FOR NATIONAL AVIATION CHOKE POINTREGION STUDIES. Thomas A. Seliga, USDOTA/oIpe National Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, MA;and D. A. Hazen and C. Schauland

J17 J1.5 AN INFERRED ICING CLIMATOLOGY—PART I: ESTIMATION FROM PILOT REPORTS AND SURFACECONDITIONS. Gregory S. Young, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and F. McDonough

J21 J1.6 AN INFERRED ICING CLIMATOLOGY—PART II: APPLYING A VERSION OF IIDA TO 14-YEARS OF COINCIDENTSOUNDINGS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. Ben C. Bernstein, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. McDonough

J25 J1.7 AN INFERRED ICING CLIMATOLOGY—PART III: ICING AIRMETS AND IIDA. Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, BoulderCO; and M. Crandell and B. G. Brown

J29 J1.8 CLIMATOLOGIES OF UPPER-LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE CONTINENTAL US AND OCEANS RobertSharman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Wolff, T. L. Fowler, and B. G. Brown

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Juo s x s s r r s r L 0 0 " ™ OF WAKE ™TEX ™ U R *»*•JOINT POSTER SESSION JP1(Joint with the 13» Conference on Applied Climatology)

J P U M i s s i s s i m R W E B B A S I N - * * p « « • - •

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TABLE OF CONTENTS


J41 JP1.2 PROGRESS REPORT ON THE INTEGRATED TERMINAL WEATHER SYSTEM'S GFMOSAIC ALGORITHM. JustinD. Shaw, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA; and S. W. Troxel

JP1.3 RETROSPECTIVE EVALUATION OF THE PERFORMANCE OF EXPERIMENTAL LONG-LEAD COLUMBIA RIVERSTREAMFLOW FORECASTING METHODS. Alan F. Hamlet, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. P.Lettenmaier

J45 JP1.4 SPATIAL AND LEAD TIME ACCURACIES OF THUNDERSTORM FORECASTS FOR AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL. HelenA. Watkin, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., UK; and T. R. Scott and D. J. Hoad

JP1.5 THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG-RANGE FORECAST TOOL FOR SHEMYA WINDS USING CART ANALYSIS.Brian K. Schroeder, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH; and R. P. Lowther

JP1.6 PERFORMANCE SUPPORT DELIVERY SYSTEM FOR USE IN CIVIL, COMMERCIAL, AND MILITARY WEATHERTRAINING AND PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT. Roger C. Whiton, SAIC, O'Fallon, IL; and L. K. Starlin, R. G.Borchers, and A. A. Guiffrida

J49 JP1.7 THE IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLIES IN KENTUCKY: A CASE STUDY FROM THEDROUGHT OF 1999-2001. Stuart A. Foster, Western Kentucky Univ., Bowling Green, KY

J55 JP1.8 THE IOWA ENVIRONMENTAL MESONET—OBSERVING CLIMATE AT THE MESOSCALE. Dennis P. Todey, IowaState Univ., Ames, IA; and E. S. Takle and S. E. Taylor

JP1.9 THE UTILITY OF LANDSAT-7 ETM+ DATA FOR IDENTIFYING AGRICULTURAL DAMAGE DUE TO SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN ILLINOIS. Mace L. Bentley, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL; and T. Moteand P. Thebpanya

JP1.10 USE OF PROBABILISTIC CONVECTIVE FORECASTS IN TRAFFIC FLOW MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT.Stephen M. Zobell, The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA; and C. G. Ball and J. E. Sherry

J57 JP1.11 WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE AT THE SAO PAULO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. Augusto J. Pereira, Univ. ofSao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil; and C. V. C. Fogaccia

J59 JP1.12 THE IMPACTS OF MICROPHYSICAL SCHEMES AND PARAMETER CHOICES ON ICING DIAGNOSES USING THEUAF INTEGRATED IN-FLIGHT ICING DIAGNOSTIC ALGORITHM FOR ALASKA. Jeffrey S. Tilley, Univ. of Alaska,Fairbanks, AK; and X. Meng and G. Kramm

J63 JP1.13 ON THE IMPACTS OF MICROPHYSICAL SCHEMES AND PARAMETER CHOICES ON MM5 SIMULATIONS OFWARM-SEASON HIGH LATITUDE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS. Jeffrey S. Tilley, Univ. of Alaska,Fairbanks, AK; and G. Kramm

J67 JP1.14 A NEW ALGORITHM TO ESTIMATE AIRCRAF ICING IN THE HIRLAM-MODEL. Bernt Olofsson, Swedish ArmedForces Headquarters, Stockholm, Sweden; and E. Olsson and T. Martensson

J70 JP1.15 AN ESTIMATION OF CONUS CONTRAIL FREQUENCY FROM RUC AND FLIGHT TRACK DATA. David P. Duda,Hampton Univ., Hampton, VA; and P. Minnis, P. K. Costulis, and R. Palikonda

JP1.16 PAPER WITHDRAWN

JP1.17 CLIMATALOGY APPLICATIONS OF THE 4DWX ARAD SYSTEM. Scott F. Halvorson, U.S. Army Dugway ProvingGround West Desert Test Center, Dugway, UT; and J. C. Chastang, D. L Leberknight, R. T. Sandblom, and D. T.Hahn

J74 JP1.18 CLIMATOLOGY STUDY OF AIRCRAFT TURBULENCE VERSUS CLOUD COVER. Jamie K. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder,CO; and R. Sharman and B. C. Bernstein

* Manuscript not available xiii

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JP119 A GEOSPATIAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR DROUGHT AND CROP RISK ANALYSIS IN NEBRASKA.William J. Waltman, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. D. Svoboda, M. J. Hayes, J. S. Peake, T. Tadesse,S. Goddard, and S. E. Reichenbach

J78 JP1 20 CLOUD RADAR OBSERVATIONS AT KENNEDY SPACE CENTER DURING THE ABFM EXPERIMENT. Brooks E.Martner, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and J. Koury, E. Defer, T. L. Schneider, B. W. Bartram, and W. B. Madsen

J82 JP1.21 FUZZY RULE-BASED APPROACH TO EVALUATE AIR TEMPERATURE BIASES IN WEATHER STATIONS. X. Lin,Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and K. G. Hubbard, D. D. Jones, and G. Merino

J84 JP1.22 HIGH SPATIAL DENSITY PRECIPITATION NETWORK IN MINNESOTA. Peter J. Boulay, State ClimatologyOffice/Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN

J86 JP1.23 IMPACT OF SUB-SAMPLING STRATEGIES ON NORTH AMERICAN CLIMATE STATISTICS. John M. Henderson,AER, Inc., Lexington, MA; and R. D. Rosen and D. A. Salstein

J89 JP1.24 INCORPORATING DATA FROM GOES AND POES PLATFORMS INTO AN INTEGRATED IN-FLIGHT ICINGDIAGNOSTIC ALGORITHM FOR ALASKA. Jeffrey S. Tilley, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and X. Meng and J.Long

J93 JP1.25 DROUGHT MONITORING ACTIVITIES IN NCDC'S CLIMATE MONITORING BRANCH. Richard R. Heim, Jr.,NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and S. E. Stephens, K. L Gleason, and J. H. Lawrimore

J99 JP1.26 THE 2001 DEMONSTRATION OF AUTOMATED CLOUD FORECAST GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR SANFRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. David A. Clark, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA

J103 JP1.27 AVIATION FORECASTING USING ADAPTIVE UNSTRUCTURED GRIDS. David P. Bacon, SAIC, McLean, VA; andZ. Boybeyi and R. A. Sarma

J107 JP1.28 3D MULTI-RADAR REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC FOR CIWS DOMAIN. Jian Zhang, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma,Norman, OK; and J. J. Gourley, W. Xia, and K. Howard

J110 JP1.29 FORECASTING C-G LIGHTNING POTENTIAL AT WSMR. Thomas R. Saxen, NCAR, Boulder, CO

J114 JP1.30 HOMOGENEOUS BLENDED WIND DATA OVER THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES. Pavel Ya. Groisman, UCARand NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and H. P. Barker

JP1.31 THE VENTILATION INDEX CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM (VCIS). Sue Ferguson, USDA/Forest Service,Seattle, WA; and S. J. McKay, D. E. Nagel, T. Piepho, M. L. Rorig, C. Anderson, and L. Kellogg

J118 JP1.32 AN EVALUATION OF THE MEDIUM-INTENSITY AIRPORT WEATHER SYSTEM (MIAWS) PRODUCTS ATMEMPHIS, TN AND JACKSON, MS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS. Mark A. Isaminger, MIT Lincoln LaboratoryLexington, MA; and E. A. Proseus

J123 JP1.33 SUITABILITY OF THE JUDD ULTRASONIC SNOW DEPTH SENSOR FOR ESTIMATING 6- AND 24-HOURSNOWFALL AMOUNTS. Doug G. Cripe, Kent State Univ., Kent, OH; and N. Doeskin


10th conference on aviation, range, and - … · gabriel r. elkin, mit lincoln lab., lexington, ma;...

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