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11-17 - resulting decision tree

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11-17 a. The resulting decision tree is: NPV t = 0 t = 1 t = 2 t = 3 P NPV Product $3,000,000 0.24 $881,718 $211,612 ($1,000,000) P = 0.5 P = 0.80 1,500,000 0.24 (185,952) (44,628) ($500,000) P = 0.5 P = 0.60 100,000 0.12 (376,709) (45,205) ($10,000) P = 0.20 0 0.40 (10,000) (4,000) P = 0.40 1.00 Exp. NPV = $117,779 The NPV of the top path is: - - - $10,000 = $881,718. Using a financial calculator, input the following: CF 0 = -10000, CF 1 = -500000, CF 2 = -1000000, = 3000000, and I/YR = 12 to solve for NPV = $881,718.29 ≈ $881,718. The other NPVs were determined in the same manner. If the project is of average risk, it should be accepted because the expected NPV of the total project is positive. 3 ) 12 . 1 ( 000 , 000 , 3 $ 2 ) 12 . 1 ( 000 , 000 , 1 $ 1 ) 12 . 1 ( 000 , 500 $ CF3

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Decision Tree

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  • 11-17 a. The resulting decision tree is: NPV t = 0 t = 1 t = 2 t = 3 P NPV Product $3,000,000 0.24 $881,718 $211,612 ($1,000,000) P = 0.5 P = 0.80 1,500,000 0.24 (185,952) (44,628) ($500,000) P = 0.5 P = 0.60 100,000 0.12 (376,709) (45,205) ($10,000) P = 0.20 0 0.40 (10,000) (4,000) P = 0.40 1.00 Exp. NPV = $117,779 The NPV of the top path is:

    - - - $10,000 = $881,718.

    Using a financial calculator, input the following: CF0 = -10000, CF1 = -500000, CF2 = -1000000, = 3000000, and I/YR = 12 to solve for NPV = $881,718.29 $881,718.

    The other NPVs were determined in the same manner. If the project is of average risk, it should be accepted because the expected NPV of the total project is positive.

    3)12.1(000,000,3$

    2)12.1(000,000,1$

    1)12.1(000,500$

    CF3


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