11. 2 recall from the lecture on epidemics and substance abuse the importance of road traffic...
TRANSCRIPT
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Recall from the Lecture on Epidemics and Substance
AbuseThe importance of road traffic collisions
determining the index of disabilty adjusted life years = years lost of life + years lived with disability
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3Michaud CM, Murray CJL, Bloom BR. JAMA 2001; 285(5):535-539.
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Estimated Leading Causes of Disability-Estimated Leading Causes of Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALYS) in the U.S., Adjusted Life-Years (DALYS) in the U.S.,
19961996
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Estimated Leading Causes of Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALYS) in the U.S., 1996
Michaud CM, Murray CJL, Bloom BR. JAMA 2001; 285(5):535-539.
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IssuesPrivate optima & social optima
Government Regulation Versus Market Solutions
Collision Statistics and Risk
Local Traffic: Volume, Collisions, and Congestion
Control of Driving Under the Influence, DUI
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Part I: Private Optima Vs. Social Optima
The Value of Time and Speeding
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Value of Time & Speeding
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Distance = Rate*TimeD =100 miles Rate (speed) Time to travel
100 25 mph 4 hours
100 40 mph 2.5 hours
100 50 mph 2.0 hours
100 75 mph 1 hour 20 minutes
100 80 mph 1 hour 15 minutes
100 85 mph 1 hour 11 minutes
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Time saved
Time for travel
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Vehicle CostsVictoria Transport Policy
Institute
Fixed costs: $ 2884/360 = $8 per day
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Fixed costs
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Variable costs $0.14mile* 100 =
$14, corrected for inefficiency
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Risk of fatality: 1.27 per 100 million miles traveled, or
1.27*10-6 *$1.4 Million or about $2, but U-shaped with speed
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Part II. Government Regulation
Versus the Private Marketself – insurance against risk of accidents
Civil Law-suit for damages
Government Requires Insurance of all Drivers Uninsured driver Moral hazard?
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Part III: Risk of an Accident
Collision Statistics Number of collisions involving fatalities Number of Collisions Involving Injuries Number of Collisions Involving Only Property
Damage
Region US California Santa Barbara County Oxnard-Ventura
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Why Did the Number of Fatal Crashes Start
Declining?Safer cars?
Seat belts Air bags
Safer Roads?
Safer Drivers?
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Risk Measures: Per Capita, Per VMT
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Passenger car involvement down, light trucks &
motorcycles up
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California Trends
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Oxnard-Ventura 2010 Fatalities
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Local Traffic & Traffic Measures
Traffic Volume or Counts
Traffic Collisions: Fatal, Injury, Property Damage Only
Traffic Congestion
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Not Much Change in Traffic Volume
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Traffic CollisionsSanta Barbara County , Total
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Traffic CollisionsVentura County, Total
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Traffic CollisionsSan Luis Obispo County,
Total
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What is Going On In Ventura?
Traffic Congestion
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Ventura CountyVehicle Miles Travelled,
VMT
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Traffic Collisions Involving Injuries,
Traffic Congestion & Public Transportation
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Positive?
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Spurious Correlation? Difference
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Traffic Collisions Involving Injuries,Traffic Congestion & Public
Transportation
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Still +
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Actual, Fitted & Residual
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-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Residual Actual Fitted
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Control Of DUI
History: Sweden Guiding Force: Temperance Movement in
Parliament
History: Great Britain Guiding Force: Physicians
History: US Guiding Force: MADD, SADD
History: CA
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NHTSA
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NHTSA
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Holidays & DUI
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Motor Vehicle Drivers in Fatal Collisions By Age, Under the Influence,
2009 CA
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5050
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
ALCINVFATCOLL
Alcohol Involved Fatal Collisions, Jan 2005-Dec 2009
July Aug Aug
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5151
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5252
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Intervention Analysis
If you know the date a law became effective then you can see if behavior changed after that date
Example: per se legislation setting a blood alcohol content, bac, of 0.08 was passed in the United Kingdom in October 1967
Monthly Data on the number of road fatalities and number seriously injured is available from January 1960 to December 1975
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Road Fatalities and Seriously Injured
200
400
600
800
1,000
1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974
KILL
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974
INJ
0
1
2
1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974
STEP
Road fatalities
Seriously Injured
Step Function
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Regress Road Fatalities On seasonal Dummies and Step
Function
-46/608 = 7.6%
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Regress SDKill = -87*sdstep + error
-200
-100
0
100
200
-400
-200
0
200
400
61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75
Residual Actual Fitted
-87/608 = -14%
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40
60
80
100
120
140
160
150 200 250 300 350 400 450
FATALCOLLISIONS
AL
CF
ATA
LC
OL
L
Alcohol Involved Crashes with Fatalities VS. Crashes Involving
Fatalities
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The End