11 the fiscal situation, economic recovery and the labor market edward p. lazear
TRANSCRIPT
11
The Fiscal Situation, Economic Recovery and the Labor Market
Edward P. Lazear
2
Net Lending
2
23.8
-219.1
-458.9
-68.8
149.6
659.7
-$600
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
1996 2003 2006
Advanced Economies
Developing Economies
US$ Billion
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
3
Foreign Holdings Of ABS
3
4
Bond Spreads
4
Source: Moody's; Merrill Lynch; U.S. Treasury Department
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
BAA
Junk
AAA
55Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
66Source: Federal Housing and Finance Authority; Standard and Poor’s, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
77
Target and Effective Fed Funds Rate
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
LIBOR Effective Federal Funds Rate Target Federal Funds Rate
8
Cash For Clunkers: Just Moving Sales Up in Time
8
Auto Sales
46,000
48,000
50,000
52,000
54,000
56,000
58,000A
pr-2
009
May
-200
9
Jun-
2009
Jul-
2009
Aug
-200
9
Sep-
2009
Oct
-200
9
Nov
-200
9
Dec
-200
9
Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs
99
Monthly Unemployment Rates : France, Germany, Italy, UK, and US(Seasonally Adjusted)
10
Most Optimistic View of US Stimulus
10
1111
Growth in the US Public Debt
12
Productivity Slowdown In Singapore? Recession Effect Only
Labor Productivity Growth
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Pe
rce
nt
Labour Productivity Growth 3 year moving average of productivity growth
13Source: Singapore Department of Statistics and Manpower Research & Statistics Department, Ministry of Manpower