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Ready to Succeed Update

An exploration of secondary and post-secondary educational

outcomes for foster children in California

K. Frerer, L. Sosenko, & N. PellegrinDec.10, 2009

The Ready to Succeed Project is supported by the Stuart Foundation

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Ready to Succeed: Overview of Presentation

•Secure database linking process

•Initial match statistics • Segment: K-12, Community College, & University• County• Age at entry

•Comparison group• Propensity score matching

•Analysis plan

•Revised time line

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Ready to Succeed: Secure File Transfer Process

CSSR

CWS/CMS

Flat File•Names•SSN•Dummy ID

CP

Encrypted File•No Names•No SSN•Dummy ID

Cal-PASS

FY File

Cal-PASS

Academic Records (Multiple Files)

•FY•Non-FY Control Groups

CDSS

4

Ready to Succeed: Initial Match Statistics- By Segment

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Match No match Match No match Match No match

K-12 Community College University

N= 101,659

N= 365>1%

N= 97,695

N= 4,3294%

N= 66,166

N= 35,85835%

Match by Segment Link

K-12 & Community College data (no University) N=2,119

K-12 & University data (no Community College) N=156

Community College & University data (no K-12) N=96

K-12, Community College, & University data N=37

5

Ready to Succeed: Initial Match Statistics- By County

Match by County Sample and Segment

County County Sample K-12 Community College University

Fresno N=15,540 7,318 (47%) 1,390 (9%) 130 (<1%)

Sacramento N=27,499 8,292 (30%) 68 (<1%) 144 (<1%)

San Bernardino N=25,780 8,304 (32%) 1,351 (<1%) 71 (<1%)

San Diego N=33,205 11,944 (36%) 1,520 (<1%) 20 (<1%)

7318

8292

8304

11944

1390

68

1351

1520

130

144

71

20

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

K-12 Community College University

Match by Segment and County

San Diego

San Bernardino

Sacramento

Fresno

N=35,858 N=4,329 N=365

6

Ready to Succeed: Initial Match Statistics- Age at Entry

Match by Age at Entry and Segment

Age at entry Total K-12 Community College University

0-2 N=35,003 5,002 (14%) 224 (<1%) 13 (<1%)

3-5 N=18,525 6,177 (33%) 367 (2%) 37 (<1%)

6-10 N=24,753 12,894 (52%) 1,250 (5%) 86 (<1%)

11-15 N=19,081 9,810 (51%) 1,882 (10%) 179 (2%)

16-17 N=4,489 1,963 (44%) 603 (13%) 53 (1%)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Match No Match Match No Match Match No Match

K-12 Community College University

8.09

4.86

10.76

5.79

11.09

5.98

Ag

e at En

try

Mean Age at Entry by Match/No Match and Segment

777

Ready to Succeed: Propensity Score Matching

FY Students

Non-FYStudents

Matching methods, such as propensity score matching (PSM) and full exact matching, reduces bias in the comparison group by achieving balance on observed covariates.

For each foster youth a set of non-foster youth is selected with the same relevant characteristics.

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Ready to Succeed: Covariates Used for Matching

K-12:school, ethnicity, gender, age, disability, home language, parent education, free/reduced lunch

CC: school, ethnicity, gender, age, disability, three financial aid indicators: any aid, BOGG, Pell Grant,participation in Extended Opportunity Programs and Services (EOPS)

UNIV:school, ethnicity, gender, age, enrollment status (transfer student, first-time freshman, … )

999

Ready to Succeed: Size of Comparison Groups

Segment

Students in Pool of Participating

Schools

Students Selected for Comparison

Group

% in Comparison Group

K-12 1,470,243 730,072 50%

CC 1,597,077 371,149 23%

UNIV 333,186 49,911 15%

10

Ready to Succeed: Report Approach, Analysis Plan

Will include: ● Process description ● Match & no match statistics, by overall, segment, county, & various demographics ● Comparison group matching methodology

Question 1: What are the secondary and post-secondary education and/or training outcomes for foster youth in California?

Research Questions:

Question 2: What factors facilitate or impede successful completion of secondary and post-secondary education and/or training for foster youth?

Approach---Create age appropriate cohorts & separate by segment

11

Ready to Succeed: Analysis Plan Update

Question 1: What are the secondary education outcomes for foster youth in California? What factors facilitate or impede successful completion of secondary education?

Question 2: What are the post-secondary education outcomes for foster youth? What factors facilitate or impede successful completion of post-secondary education and/or training for foster youth?

Foster children and comparison group

H.S. diploma receipt/award type

Possible education --● CAHSEE scores, English/math

● CST scores, English/math grades

● AP classes/algebra 2

● School quality/ school type

● School changes

Child welfare—● Removal reason ● Maltreatment type ●Age at entry

● Length of stay ● Exit type ● Entry vs. re-entry

● Primary placement type ● Placement changes

Award receipt/type

Possible education—● Units attempted/completed

● Transferrable credits

1212

Ready to Succeed: Timeline Update

12

12/17 Final education data received by CSSR.

1/6 Final combined education and social service dataset complete.

2/11 Meeting to review initial analyses to refine follow-up analyses and draft report outline.

3/5 Follow-up analyses and write-ups due.

3/19 Report 1st draft to internal reviewers.

4/16 Reviewers comments due on report 1st draft.

5/11 Send 2nd draft of final report to CDSS and Stuart.

5/25 Reviewers comments due on 2nd draft of report.

6/15 Final report complete.