111205 hot breakfast briefing on the autumn statement and growth policy

Hot Breakfast Briefing #HotBreakfastAutumn Statement and Growth Policy

05 December 2011

Steve Besley, PearsonCPL (@SteveBesley)Louis Coiffait, PearsonCPL (@LouisMMCoiffait)Andy Palmer, BT (@Palmer_Andy)

www.pearsoncpl.com

*Please note that flash photography and video may be used*

#HotBreakfast 05/12/112

Policy overview – growth and educationSteve Besley, PearsonCPL (@SteveBesley)

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The policy context 2 years into 5 year stretch, traditionally a difficult period Route map set out in Coalition Agreement updated through Dept

Business Plans, SRPs, Key Papers Overall narrative established but subject to current economic

fluctuations and mood swings Education a high political and social priority, extensive reform under

way Notable (post-16) signposts include:

– Comprehensive Spending Review (Oct 2010)– Skills for Sustainable Growth (Nov 2010)– Growth Review (March 2011)– Response to the Wolf Review (May 2011)– HE White Paper (June 2011)– New Challenges, New Chances (August 2011)– National Infrastructure Plan (Nov 2011)– Chancellor’s Financial Statement and Growth Plan (Nov 2011)– Response to FE reform programme (Dec 2011)


The economic context

Economic framework set out in Emergency Budget (June 2010,) CSR (Oct 2010,) Budget update (March 2011,) Autumn Financial Statement (Nov 2011)

Current forecasts gloomy: Growth: 0.9% (2011,) 0.7% (2012,) 2.1% (2013,) 2.7% (2014) Inflation: 4-5% (2011,) 2.5% (2012,) 2% (2013) Unemployment; 8.1% (2011,) 8.7% (2012,) falling after to 6.2%

by 2014

Impact on the education system: Slashing of capital budgets Reduction in public investment Increase in pensionable age Limits to pubic sector pay Consultations on school and 16-19 funding Introduction of new approach for supporting disadvantage Introduction of fee loan systems for FE and HE Incentive and contribution schemes where possible


How is the Government responding?

Issued a series of Plans Economic Plan Growth Plan National Infrastructure Plan

Held a number of consultations School, 16-19, FE and HE Funding VQ reform. Wolf, employer role, apprenticeships Sector reform. Schools, FE, HE Other. Open Data, UCAS, teacher professionalism

Made some ‘ying/yang’ speeches Vince Cable’s Sept ‘Conference’ speech John Hayes’s Nov AoC speech David Cameron’s Nov CBI speech

Launched some important strategies For schools For 14-19 For FE For HE

Developed a set of reforming principles


Reforming principles

1. Reduce structural deficit within lifetime of the Government2. Shift Government spending away from inputs and strategies to outputs

and efficiencies3. Limit state contribution to essential provision, transfer fee burden

where appropriate to consumer/community4. Look to private sector to lead the way in creating efficiencies and jobs5. Free up public sector to respond to customer needs 6. Develop the concept of the informed consumer to act as agent of

change7. Use increase in data and intelligence to drive choice and quality of

services8. Devolve authority and responsibility to sub-regional level where

possible9. Emphasise pragmatism rather than philosophy10. Embrace best international practice where necessary


Three key policy areas

1. Youth unemployment2. Development of the FE sector3. The Growth Plan


1. Current labour market

Total unemployment = 2.62m (up 129,000 from previous quarter) Unemployment rate for 16-24 = 1.02m (up 67,000 from previous quarter*) Unemployed 16-17 yr olds = 217,000 (up 11,000 on previous quarter) Unemployed 18-24 year olds = 799,000 (up 55,000 on previous quarter) 16-24 NEET figures = 1.6m (up 137,000 on previous year) No employed in public sector = 6.04m (down over quarter by 97,000) No employed in private sector = 23.13m (up over quarter by 41,000) Average weekly hours worked = 31.5 (up 0.3 from previous quarter)

*Includes those in f/t education but seeking/available for work(Source ONS/LFS. Nov 2011)


1. Youth Unemployment

Part of a global trend but an acid test for Government Series of papers and pronouncements over the year as numbers have

risen Current mechanisms focused on transition to work arrangements Measures include:• Reform of the VQ system to focus on quals and skills that can enhance

progression and employability• Commitment to raise the participation age• Development of the work-based route through apprenticeship growth• Support for the development of UTCs, Tech Academies, Maths Free

Schools • Launch of a Youth Contract offering internships, placements and support• Deployment of incentives to encourage employers to take on more

young people• Dedicated programme to provide support for NEETs • Accelerated referrals and extra support through JCP• Bigger push on entrepreneurship• Provision of a National Careers Service• Publication of destination data for 16 and 18 yr olds


2. Development of the FE sector

Emerging reform programme. 10 elements

1. Simplified funding system with funding responsibility increasingly shared2. System built around market/learner needs eg Innovation Code, employer

ownership, comparison websites, common information sets3. Improved advice and guidance through National Careers Service, Lifelong

learning Accounts4. Progressive framework of VET programmes with emphasis on Eng/ma,

through from community and core learning to higher level tech and apprenticeship provision

5. Excellence in T/L through a new Commission, network of expert practitioners, review of professionalism, focus on STEM, ITT bursary

6. Responsive qual system refined through consultations on NOS and employer role in QD plus AO flexibility and QCF awareness

7. More strategic approach to governance, titling, partnerships and structures

8. Long-term road map to give providers more freedom and flexibility9. More proportionate but transparent models of QA and accountability 10. Recognition of global context with work on developing a global strategy

for FE and a strong presence in the GREAT Britain shop window


3. The Growth Plan

Designed to remove barriers and create conditions for growth 4 general ambitions with a number of measures around skills Linked to National Infrastructure Plan 137 ‘Phase 1’ measures under way, current priorities include:

• Reform of VQ system for young people• Focus on STEM provision• Expansion of work exp provision and support• Expansion of UTC system• Increase in apprenticeship provision• Greater transparency of performance, outcome and destination

data• Recreation of Enterprise Zones• Introduction of new TIC system• Development of new funding schemes (RGF, GIF)• Creation of Green Investment bank• Development of LEP network• Employer ownership and kitemarking of courses• Credit easing and Loan Guarantee Scheme for SMEs


View from the other side

5 point Growth Plan set out by the Shadow Chancellor at the Party Conference

Use further tax on bank bonuses to fund more homes and jobs for young people

Bring forward a number of infrastructure projects Offer small firms NI breaks to take on more staff Reverse (temporarily) the VAT rise Cut VAT on home improvements


And the view from over the pond

Obama’s American Jobs Act announced in Sept. 5 parts:

• Tax cuts to help small business hire and grow• Series of infrastructure projects to help ‘modernise’ America and

put people back to work• Help for the unemployed through work-sharing, tax credits, youth

programmes, support for entrepreneurship and a new ‘Bridge to Work’ programme

• A programme of tax reliefs for workers and families• Financing through a long-term Deficit Reduction Plan


Now it’s time for ALL OF YOU to answer some questions*…

Grab those voting pads!

*hopefully, technology permitting…

Q1: The PM has complained recently that we’re talking ourselves into a recession. How do you feel?

1. Positive about the future2. Anxious about the future3. Feel concerned but think that

things will work out eventually


6%

50%

44%

Q2: Which one of the following do you think the Chancellor should do?

1. Stick with Plan A2. Flex up Plan A by putting more money

into the economy3. Abandon Plan A and start again


13%

59%

28%

Q3: The Government had hoped to reduce the structural deficit by 2014/15, it now says it will take a bit longer. Who do you blame?1. The EU2. The present Government3. The previous Government4. All of the above


0%

6%

18%

76%

Q4: The Youth Contract contains a number of measures to try and help young people. Which one do you think will be most effective?1. More apprenticeships2. More internships and placements3. Better advice and guidance4. More incentives to encourage

employers to recruit young people5. More English and maths6. None of the above


28%

3%

16%

28%

16%

9%

Q5: What will you be doing this Christmas?

1. Spending more than last Christmas2. Spending less than last Christmas3. Spending about the same4. Saying Bah Humbug to Christmas altogether


13%

22%

44%

22%


Research on careers and enterpriseLouis Coiffait, PearsonCPL (@LouisMMCoiffait)

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Careers202021

Which ONE WORD describes current careers services?

Careers202022

Which ONE WORD describes what careers services of the future should be like?

Careers202023

Which ONE WORD describes how we should get there?


Research project 1: #Careers2020

Working with the University of Derby and other partners

Focussing on school-based careers services

Starting with a blank canvas, ideally what should careers services do?

Consulting all the relevant stakeholders

Exploring different options for the future

Designing concise and accessible outputs for parents, heads etc


Q6: Which statement best describes how you feel about careers services?1. Have always worked perfectly and

are getting even better2. Never quite fit the bill but seem to

be on the right track now3. Were finally starting to function but

are all over the place now4. Going to hell in a handcart

0%

24%

14%

62%


Research project 2: #Train2Thrive enterprise & entrepreneurship education Three research questions;

1.what is it?

2.what impact does it have?

3.how should it be delivered?

A large research project in partnership with the Education and Employers Taskforce, University of Warwick and others


#Train2Thrive research approach

Educators

Literature

review

Stakeholder

consultation

quantitative online surveys

Phase one:

Mapping current thinking

(international)

Phase two:

Gathering new evidence

(England)

Phase three:

Developing recommendations

(England and international)

12 Oct Taskforce Conference

14 Nov interim findings event

Draft final report

Spring 2012 - final report

and launch event

Feb

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

qualitative focus groups

Employers Learners

Test and refine findings

and recommendations

Mar

Online

learner poll

2 teacher

workshops


Five insights emerging from phase one

1. Definitions matter – the same words often have very different meanings to different people.

2. Levels of participation and perceived impact vary – some are unaware of this agenda, some disagree with it, while others are passionately supportive.

3. Impact cannot be taken for granted – there is little robust or conclusive evidence about the impact these education practices have.

4. External engagement matters and needs harnessing better – with evidence suggesting best practice involves appropriate and well-planned employer involvement, but is often delivered without it.

5. Many who work in education do not seem to value it – with the result that many learners (c.70%) do not experience it at all.


Q7: Which statement best describes how you feel about enterprise and entrepreneurship education?1. It’s a distraction, you

shouldn’t try to teach it2. It’s important but people have

other teaching priorities3. There’s already enough good

practice for those who care4. It’s vital and should be given

more support

10%

21%

14%

55%


Research on technicians and STEM skillsAndy Palmer, BT (@Palmer_Andy)

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Thank you

3 final requests please…

1.complete and leave your feedback form

2.remember to leave your voting pads too

3.put any breakfast remnants on the racks to the left