1. ENSO and Mexican children Medium-term eects of early-life weather shocks on cognitive and health outcomesArturo Aguilar Marta VicarelliHarvard UniversityYale UniversityNovember 29, 2012Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale)ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 1 / 63

2. Motivation Conditions aecting individuals at early stages of life tend to have long-term eectsHealth, education, socioeconomic status (Maccini and Yang, 2009)Physical and mental disabilities (Almond, 2006; Almond andMazumder, 2011) Weather shocks are the most important self-reported risk faced by rural households (Skouas, 1997; Dercon and Krishnan, 2000; Gine, Townsend and Vickery, 2008) El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO)nRecurring climatic event with a 5 to 7 year cycleAects hydro-meteorological patterns causing extreme weather events(e.g. droughts, oods, heat waves)Global impacts (Cane et al., 2004)Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 2 / 63 3. Research Questions1Estimate the eects of ENSO-related weather shocks in early-life on medium-term individual well-being (human capital formation):Cognitive developmentHealth and physical developmentMotor skills2Investigate possible mechanisms through which weather shocks could be driving these results Income Nutrition Health3Assess the potential mitigating eects of a randomized poverty reduction intervention: Mexicos Progresa Conditional Cash Transfer programAguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 3 / 63 4. Contributions and related literature1Long-term eects of shocks in early-childhood Maccini and Yang (2009), Almond (2006), Almond and Mazumder (2011) Contribution: Examines specic medium-term eects on human-capital formation (e.g. memory, language development) which might be driving long-term eects2Role of weather shocksMaccini and Yang (2009), Munshi (2003), Baez and Santos (2007)Contribution: Use ENSO-related extreme rain shocks at the end of theagricultural season to identify exogenous income shocks3Progresas eectsFernald et al. (2008), Fernald and Gertler (2005), Gertler (2004)Contribution: Determine if the Conditional Cash Transfers providedmitigation eects to children aected by the shocksAguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 4 / 63 5. A glimpse at the resultsMain ResultsFour to ve years after the shock, exposed children show: Lower cognitive abilities (11 to 21 percent) Receptive language, working memory, and visual-spatial processing Lower weight (0.28 to 0.38 kg) and lower height (1.1 to 1.8 cm) Minor reduction in gross motor skillsAguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 5 / 63 6. A glimpse at the resultsMechanismsThe ENSO-related weather shock had contemporaneous and persistent eects Income: contraction up to 2 years after the shock Food consumption and diet composition: negatively aected Health: no signicant self-reported eect immediately after the shockRole of Progresa No evidence of Progresas mitigating eects has been foundAguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 6 / 63 7. Outline1 Background2 Data3 Empirical specication4 Results5 Mechanisms6 The role of Progresa7 ConclusionsAguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 7 / 63 8. El Nio Southern Oscillation n ENSO is a non-regular cyclical climatic pattern associated to changes in tropical Pacic Ocean sea surface temperature and pressure. ENSO generates weather extremes across the globe, especially in countries bordering the Pacic Ocean.El Nio 1997-1998 nLa Nia 1998-1999n Sizeable eects in weather-sensitive industries (e.g. shing and agriculture) (Cane et al., 2004) Large eects for developing countries that rely on rain-fed agriculture (90% of households in our sample) Use extreme oods during the harvest season as exogenous income shocksAguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 8 / 63 9. El Nio Southern Oscillation nFigure: Satellite image showing sea surface heights relative to normal conditions. Red andwhite areas are related to above average sea surface temperatures and blue and purple areas tobelow average sea surface temperaturesAguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican childrenNovember 29, 2012 9 / 63 10. Outline1 Background2 Data3 Empirical specication4 Results5 Mechanisms6 The role of Progresa7 ConclusionsAguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 10 / 63 11. Data: Weather Gridded precipitation dataSource: UEA CRU TS2p1 (Mitchell, 2005)Temporal resolution: monthlySpatial resolution: 0.5 x 0.5 degrees We calculate the Monthly Standardized Anomaly Anomaly = dierence with respect to 1960-1999 average levels Standardized = measured in standard deviation terms Weather shock denition: rain shock = 1 if standardized anomaly for Sep-Oct > 0.7 Sensitivity tests using dierent thresholdsAguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 11 / 63 12. Data: Weather Standardized anomaly is above 0.7 about 16% of the time Standardized anomaly distribution (Sept-Oct)Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale) ENSO and Mexican childrenNovember 29, 2012 12 / 63 13. Data: WeatherMonthly Precipitation Standardized Anomalies4Growing Season A M J JJA S O N20-29798 99YearFigure: Maize calendar: Planting season (Apr-Jun). Moisture sensitive season(Jul-Aug). Maturation and Harvesting (Sep-Nov)Aguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale)ENSO and Mexican childrenNovember 29, 2012 13 / 63 14. Data: Weather Precipitation Standardized Anomalies (UEA CRU Ts2p1) 199930N25N Latitude20N15N 120W115W110W 105W 100W95W 90WLongitudeOct 1999-2.4 -2-1.6-1.2 -0.8 -0.4 00.40.8 1.21.6 22.4precipitationAguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale)ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 2012 14 / 63 15. Data: WeatherWe spatially joinedWeather and Socioeconomic Data2400"N30N2200"N25N Latitude2000"N20N15N1800"N 120W 115W 110W105W 100W95W90WLongitudeOct 1999 10400"W10200"W 10000"W 9800"W 9600"W -2.4-2 -1.6-1.2-0.8 -0.4 0 0.40.8 1.21.6 2 2.4precipitationAguilar & Vicarelli (Harvard, Yale)ENSO and Mexican children November 29, 201215 / 63 16. Data: Weather 1999 Precipitation Standardized Anomalies (UEA CRU Ts2p1) SeptemberOctober(!( !(!( !(!( !(!( !(!( !(! (!(!( ! ( !(!((!!(! (!(( !!( ! ( !(!( ! ( !(! ( !(!(!( !(!( !(!( ! ( ! ( ! (( !!( !(!((!! ( ! (( !!(( !!( !((!!((!!( ( (((( (! ! !!!! !( (( (! !! !( ( (((( (! ! !!!! ! ( !(( (!! !(!(( ( !! !( !(!( !( ((! !! (( ( !! !( ! ( !(! ( ((! !! ( ! ( !( ( ((! ! !!((!!(!( ! ( !( ( ((! ! !!((!! ( ( ! ! ( ( (( ! ! !!( ! ( ( ! !( ( ((! ! !! ( ! ( !(! ( !(! ((( (!!! !( ! ( ! ( !(! ((( (!!! ! ( !(!( ( ! !(!( !(!( !(! (! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ( ! !( (! ! ( ! ( ( (( ! ! !! (!( ! ( ( (( ! ! !! (!( (! !( ! ( !( (! !( ! ( ! ( (( ( ! !! !(! ( ( ( ( ( ( (( ( ! ! ! ! ! ! !! !( (( ( (! !! ! ! ( (( ( ! !! !(! ( ( ( ( ( ( (( ( ! ! ! ! ! ! !! !( (( ( (! !! ! ! ( ! ( !(!( !(! (!(( (!! ! ( ! ( (( ! !!( !( (( (! !! ! (( !!( ! ( ! ( (( ! !!( !( (( (! !! ! (( !!(( !! (( ( !! !( ( ( ( ( ! ! ! ! ! (( ( !! !( ( ( ( ( ! ! ! ! ! (( !!(( !!(( ( ( (((( ((!! ! ! !!!! !!( ( (! ! !(( !!(( !!(( ( ( (((( ((!! ! ! !!!! !!( ( (! ! !(!( ! (( !! ( ( (((! ! !!! ( ((( ! !!!((!!((!! ( ! (( !! ( ( (((! ! !!! ( ((( ! !!!((!!((!!(! ((( !!! ( ( (( ! ! !! (! (( ( (((( (!! ! !!!! !( (! ! (! ( !(((!!! ( ! ( ( (( ! ! !! (! (( ( (((( (!! ! !!!! !( (! ! (!( (((! !!! ( ( ( ( ! ! ! !( ( (( (! ! !! !(! ( (((! !!! ( ( ( ( ! ! ! !( ( (( (! ! !! !(! ( !( ((! !! ( ( ( ((( ! ! ! !!! ( !( ((! !! ( ( ! !(! ( ((! !!( ( ( (((! ! ! !!! ( !( ((! !! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( ( ( ! ! ! ((( ( ( (( ( ( !!! ! ! !! ! !(!( ! ( ( ( ! ! ! ((( ( ( (( ( ( !!! ! ! !! ! !(!(( (!! !( ( ( ((! ! ! !! ( !(( (!! !( ( ( ((! ! ! !! ( ! ( ! ( ( ! !( (! !( (( ( ( ! !! ! ! (!( ( ! !( (! !( (( ( ( ! !! ! !(!( ! ( ! (((( ( !!!! !(! (! (!( !(!( ! ( ! (((( ( !!!! !(! (! (!( ! ( !( ((! !!(!((( !!!(! ( ((! !!(!((( !!! ( ! ( (( ! !! (!(!(( ( ( !! ! ! ( !(!( ((! !!(!(!(( ( ( !! ! ! ( !(!( ! ( ( (( (( ( ! ! !! !! ! (( !! (!( ! ( ( (( (( ( ! ! !! !! ! (( !!( ( ((! ! !! ( ( ! !(!( ! ( (( ! !! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( ( (( ! ! !!( (! !( ! ( (( ! !! ( ! ( ( ! ! ( !(!( ( ( (( ! ! ! !! ( !((( (!!! !(( (!! !(!( !(! ( ( ( (( ! ! ! !! ( !((( (!!! !(( (!! !(!(! ((!!((!!(!(! ((!!((!! ( !(! ( ( ! ! ( !(! ( ( (! ! !(!( ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ( !( ( (! ! !(!( !( ( (! ! ! ( ! ( !( ((! !!( ( (! ! ! ( ! ( !( ((! !! ( !(!( ( ! ! ( !(! ( (! ! ( ( ( ! ! !((!! ( ! ( !( ( (! ! ! ((!! ( ! ( !((!! ( ( ! ! (( ( !! ! ( ! ( ! ( !((!! ( ( ! !(( (!! !(!(!( !(!( !(!( !( ( ((! ! !!((!! ( !( (! !(( ( (!! ! !(!( !( ( ((! ! !! (( !!(!( (! !(( ( (!! ! !(!( ! ( ! ( ! ( !(!(! ( ( ((! ! !! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( !( ( ((! ! !!(! ( (! ! ( !( (! ! (! (! ( (! ! ( !( (! ! (!( (! !( !(! ( ( (! ! ! ( (! !( !(! ( ( (! ! !(!( ! ( ! ( !( (! !( !(!( ! ( ! ( !( (! !( !(!( !(! (!( !(! (!( ! ( !(!( !(! ( ! ( !(!(( !!( !(!( ! ( !(!(( !!( !(!( ! ( ! ( ( ( ! ! !(!( ! ( ( ( ! ! !(!( ! ( ! ( ! (( !!( ! ( ! (( !!(! (! ( (! !(! (! (! ( (! !(!((!! ( ! ( ((( ! !!! (( !!((!! ( ((( ! !!! (( !! ( !( ((! !!( ( (! ! ! ( ! ( !( ((! !!( ( (! ! ! ( ! ( ! ( !(!( ! ( ! ( ! ( !(!( ! ( !(!(!( !( ( (! ! ! (!( !( ( (! ! ! (( ( ( !! ! !((!! ( ! ( ! (( ( ( !! ! !((!! ( ! ( !(! (! ( ( ! ! (( !!(!( ( ! ! (( !!(!((!!((!!(! (!( !(! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( !.5.5521 -1243 0.-0 -1