12 jan 2016 email to enr chiefs of staff - right problem, wrong solution. where is the objective,...

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7/21/2019 12 Jan 2016 Email to ENR Chiefs of Staff - Right Problem, Wrong Solution. Where is the Objective, Quantitative a… http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/12-jan-2016-email-to-enr-chiefs-of-staff-right-problem-wrong-solution-where 1/3 From: Douglas Grandt [email protected] Subject: Right problem, wrong solution. Where is the objective, quantitative and transparent options assessment? Date: January 12, 2016 at 9:39 AM To: Edward Hild (Sen. Murkowski) [email protected] , David Cleary (Sen. Alexander) [email protected] , Dan Kunsman (Sen. Barrasso) [email protected] , Joel Brubaker (Sen. Capito) [email protected] , James Quinn (Sen. Cassidy) [email protected] , Jason Thielman (Sen. Daines) [email protected] , Chandler Morse (Sen. Flake) Chandler_Morse@flake.senate.gov , Chris Hansen (Sen. Gardner) [email protected] , Ryan Bernstein (Sen. Hoeven) [email protected] , Boyd Matheson (Sen. Lee) [email protected] , Mark Isakowitz (Sen. Portman) [email protected] , John Sandy (Sen. Risch) [email protected], Travis Lumpkin (Sen. Cantwell) [email protected] , Jeff Lomonaco (Sen. Franken) [email protected] , Joe Britton (Sen. Heinrich) [email protected], Betsy Lin (Sen. Hirono) [email protected], Patrick Hayes (Sen. Manchin) [email protected] , Bill Sweeney (Sen. Stabenow) [email protected] , Mindy Myers (Sen. Warren) [email protected] , Jeff Michels (Sen. Wyden) [email protected] , Michaeleen Crowell (Sen. Sanders) [email protected] , Kay Rand (Sen. King) [email protected] , Joe Hack (Sen. Fischer) Joe_Hack@fischer.senate.gov , Derrick Morgan (Sen. Sasse) [email protected] , Karen Billups (Senate ENR Ctee) [email protected] , Angela Becker-Dippmann (Senate ENR Ctee) [email protected] Cc: Ali Aafedt (Sen. Hoeven) [email protected] , Jordan Cox (Sen. Fischer) Jordan_Cox@fischer.senate.gov , Ginger Willson (Sen. Sasse) [email protected] Dear Chiefs of Staff of the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee (ENR) and the Nebraska Senate Delegation, When I read the following report in The Hill, my heart initially leapt for joy that you have finally understood the conundrum that I have been attempting to communicate to your Senators in numerous letters and emails during 2015. And then my heart sank when I realized that apparently only one solution is being considered based on what seems to be unrealistic and unsubstantiated assumptions. Why have no alternative solutions or sensitivity to assumptions been evaluated? During my forty-two-year career in Petroleum Engineering, Industrial Engineering and Corporate Planning, one discipline that I adhered to was evaluating alternatives and sensitivity analysis. Failure to test for risk of alternate outcomes is appalling to me. In the case reported below, it appears that other responsible options and assumptions were prejudged and ignored, or never considered at all. If this is the case, you are not acting in the best interest of the public, let alone the nation. I again implore you to require petroleum CEOs testify under oath—invite economists as well. Ask them tough questions about the global glut. Gather evidence to objectively guide you to socially responsible conclusions. If you have already done this, it has not been made public. The basis for your actions must be fully understood by all Americans. No Board of Directors would accept a major investment or policy recommendation without a thorough explanation of reasonable options. You are dong a disservice to your Board of Directors—We the People of the U.S.A.—if you promote legislation without also presenting your due diligence, especially on a topic as critical to every American as energy. We need petroleum CEOs to act in the Public and National Interest, if and when there is a conflict with their fiduciary duty. Sincerely, Doug Grandt

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When I read the following report in The Hill, my heart initially leapt for joy that you have finally understood the conundrum that I have been attempting to communicate to your Senators in numerous letters and emails during 2015. And then my heart sank when I realized that apparently only one solution is being considered based on what seems to be unrealistic and unsubstantiated assumptions. Why have no alternative solutions or sensitivity to assumptions been evaluated?

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Page 1: 12 Jan 2016 Email to ENR Chiefs of Staff - Right Problem, Wrong Solution. Where is the Objective, Quantitative and Transparent Options Assessment?

7/21/2019 12 Jan 2016 Email to ENR Chiefs of Staff - Right Problem, Wrong Solution. Where is the Objective, Quantitative a…

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/12-jan-2016-email-to-enr-chiefs-of-staff-right-problem-wrong-solution-where 1/3

From:  Douglas Grandt [email protected]: Right problem, wrong solution. Where is the objective, quantitative and transparent options assessment?

Date: January 12, 2016 at 9:39 AMTo: Edward Hild (Sen. Murkowski) [email protected], David Cleary (Sen. Alexander)

[email protected], Dan Kunsman (Sen. Barrasso) [email protected],Joel Brubaker (Sen. Capito) [email protected], James Quinn (Sen. Cassidy) [email protected],Jason Thielman (Sen. Daines) [email protected], Chandler Morse (Sen. Flake)[email protected], Chris Hansen (Sen. Gardner) [email protected],Ryan Bernstein (Sen. Hoeven) [email protected], Boyd Matheson (Sen. Lee) [email protected], Mark Isakowitz (Sen. Portman) [email protected], John Sandy (Sen. Risch) [email protected],Travis Lumpkin (Sen. Cantwell) [email protected], Jeff Lomonaco (Sen. Franken)[email protected], Joe Britton (Sen. Heinrich) [email protected], Betsy Lin (Sen. Hirono)[email protected], Patrick Hayes (Sen. Manchin) [email protected],Bill Sweeney (Sen. Stabenow) [email protected], Mindy Myers (Sen. Warren)[email protected], Jeff Michels (Sen. Wyden) [email protected],Michaeleen Crowell (Sen. Sanders) [email protected], Kay Rand (Sen. King) [email protected], Joe Hack (Sen. Fischer) [email protected], Derrick Morgan (Sen. Sasse) [email protected],Karen Billups (Senate ENR Ctee) [email protected], Angela Becker-Dippmann (Senate ENR Ctee)[email protected]

Cc: Ali Aafedt (Sen. Hoeven) [email protected], Jordan Cox (Sen. Fischer) [email protected],Ginger Willson (Sen. Sasse) [email protected]

Dear Chiefs of Staff of the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee (ENR) and theNebraska Senate Delegation,

When I read the following report in The Hill, my heart initially leapt for joy that you have finallyunderstood the conundrum that I have been attempting to communicate to your Senators innumerous letters and emails during 2015.

And then my heart sank when I realized that apparently only one solution is being consideredbased on what seems to be unrealistic and unsubstantiated assumptions. Why have noalternative solutions or sensitivity to assumptions been evaluated?

During my forty-two-year career in Petroleum Engineering, Industrial Engineering andCorporate Planning, one discipline that I adhered to was evaluating alternatives and sensitivity

analysis. Failure to test for risk of alternate outcomes is appalling to me.

In the case reported below, it appears that other responsible options and assumptions wereprejudged and ignored, or never considered at all. If this is the case, you are not acting in thebest interest of the public, let alone the nation.

I again implore you to require petroleum CEOs testify under oath—invite economists as well.Ask them tough questions about the global glut. Gather evidence to objectively guide you tosocially responsible conclusions. If you have already done this, it has not been made public.The basis for your actions must be fully understood by all Americans.

No Board of Directors would accept a major investment or policy recommendation without athorough explanation of reasonable options. You are dong a disservice to your Board ofDirectors—We the People of the U.S.A.—if you promote legislation without also presentingyour due diligence, especially on a topic as critical to every American as energy.

We need petroleum CEOs to act in the Public and National Interest, if and when there is aconflict with their fiduciary duty.

Sincerely,Doug Grandt

Page 2: 12 Jan 2016 Email to ENR Chiefs of Staff - Right Problem, Wrong Solution. Where is the Objective, Quantitative and Transparent Options Assessment?

7/21/2019 12 Jan 2016 Email to ENR Chiefs of Staff - Right Problem, Wrong Solution. Where is the Objective, Quantitative a…

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/12-jan-2016-email-to-enr-chiefs-of-staff-right-problem-wrong-solution-where 2/3

Oil plunge sparks calls for Congress to act

By Alexander Bolton - 01/10/16 06:01 AM EST - Bit.ly/Hill10Jan16

 As the price of oil plunges to its lowest point in 12 years — and threatens to drag the broaderU.S. economy down with it — lawmakers say Congress should consider helping teeteringenergy companies with policy fixes beyond the decision to lift the oil-export ban.

Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairwoman Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska)and House Energy and Commerce Chairman Fred Upton (R-Mich.) will meet next week todiscuss an energy package expected to move in both chambers later this year.

 Among the proposals under discussion: Expediting the process for exporting liquefied naturalgas, and upgrading infrastructure to move energy to market more quickly and cheaply.

 Another top priority for the two Republicans is loosening environmental and other regulations.

But moves in that direction are highly unlikely while a Democrat remains in the White House.

With oil currently below $33 a barrel, some on Capitol Hill are calling for quick action.

Some lawmakers are floating the possibility of taking retaliatory trade measures against Saudi Arabia, which has flooded the market with cheap oil in what some analysts see as a bid todrive America’s growing shale oil industry out of business.

The stock market slumped again on Friday, capping off the worst year-opening week in thehistory of the Dow Industrial Average and the S&P 500. Analysts blamed tumbling oil prices,after the stock market in China stabilized overnight.

“We’re trying to help the industry and we know that exports will help whether it’s crude oil orLNG,” Upton said, referring to liquefied natural gas. “I’m intending to sit down with Lisa nextweek.

“The two of us have worked together already and I remain confident that if she can get a billout of the Senate…that we can a get a bill that is in fact bipartisan that the president can sign,”he added.

Upton said the House version of the energy legislation includes language to expedite naturalgas exports.

Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) claimed the Obama administration has proposed nearly 100regulations for the oil and gas industry, ranging from restrictions on methane and carbondioxide to limits on operating on federal land.

“We really are right now locked in a global battle between OPEC and Russia, countries likeVenezuela — we’re really battling out to see who’s going to provide oil and gas,” he said.“That’s why it’s so important that government create an environment where we can compete.”

Legislation passed last month to lift the four-decade ban on oil exports is expected to boostexports by 500,000 barrels a day but so far it has had little impact on prices.

Page 3: 12 Jan 2016 Email to ENR Chiefs of Staff - Right Problem, Wrong Solution. Where is the Objective, Quantitative and Transparent Options Assessment?

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 An energy package is one of the few major pieces of legislation expected to pass the Senatethis year after Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) did his best to clear the decks beforethe election year.

 A wave of bankruptcies in the energy sector have spread alarm on Capitol Hill and Wall Street,where plunging oil prices, along with China’s fluctuating currency, set off a round of stampede

selling this week.

Goldman Sachs has warned that oil may sink as low as $20 a barrel, which would shakefinancial markets by sinking energy stocks, driving companies into bankruptcies and setting offa round of junk-bond defaults.

Third Avenue Investment, a New York-based fund, last month blocked clients from pulling theirmoney, prompting a sell-off of high-yield bonds and evoking memories of the 2008 meltdown.

Growing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran over the execution of a Shiite cleric mighthave been thought to have boosted prices by raising the specter of regional conflict. But thathad little effect on oil prices this past week.

Bankruptcies among oil and gas companies have hit the highest quarterly level since the midstof the 2008 financial crisis, Bloomberg Business reported last month.

Oil and gas companies have laid off more than 250,000 workers and that number could swellin the months ahead.

North Dakota Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) said lawmakers could begin to mull retaliatory tariffsagainst Saudi Arabia in the future but emphasized he is not advocating for that yet.

“I’m very hesitant to go down that path at this time but clearly that would be a possible option

should the Saudis not play fair. Because as much as I advocate for free and open markets, Ialso advocate for fair markets,” he said.

Saudi Arabia, taking advantage of its low extraction costs, has refused to curb oil production ina bid to expand market share and undercut competitors. This has raised the prospect of theU.S. government taking action to level the playing field for domestic companies.

“I’m not prone to a lot of government intervention in terms of propping industry up, per se.What would be the most helpful is to roll back regulations that get in the way of furtherdevelopment and profitability,” said Cramer, who cited the Endangered Species Act as oneburdensome regulation.

“Obviously they have access to our market and I suppose to some degree there is a role thatcan be played there. I’m not at the point where I’m ready to advocate tariffs or restricting theiraccess necessarily,” he added.

If the energy industry continues to sink, other proposals will pop up in the energy negotiationsdue to kick off next week.