12-vanston forecasts of online video and gigabit access 2015 · 1/10/2015 · title: microsoft...

Copyright © 2015 Technology Futures, Inc.

Copyright © 2015, Technology Futures, Inc. 1

Forecasts of Online Video and Gigabit Access

Lawrence Vanston, Ph.D.President,Technology Futures, Inc.

TFI Communications Technology Asset Valuation Conference

[email protected]


Asset Valuation Conference

January 28-29, 2015

Radisson DowntownAustin, Texas

13740 Research Blvd., Bldg. C-1 • Austin, Texas 78750 (512) 258-8898 • www.tfi.com


I d t B db d F tIndustry Broadband Forecasts


Broadband Generations, Data Rate Categories*

Nominal Range

1 5 Mb/ L h 3 Mb/1.5 Mb/s Less than 3 Mb/s

6 Mb/s At least 3 Mb/s and less than 10 Mb/s




VHSBroadband



300 Mb/s At least 300 Mb/s (Includes 1 Gb/s)

*These are based on downstream, but upstream is becoming important also.


Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate

80%

90%

100%

ds

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%P

erce

nta

ge

of

Ho

use

ho

ld

1.5Mb/s

6 Mb/s24

Mb/s

50 Mb/s

All BroadbandHouseholds

Broadband A

ccess

100 Mb/s& Above


0%

10%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

P

Year Source: Technology Futures, Inc.

2014

Data Source: FCC. Data excludes mobile wireless broadband

Addi A th G tiAdding Another Generation



Trend in Residential Access Data Rates

50,000 100,000

300,000

1,000,000

100,000

1,000,000

s)

1.22.4

9.614.4

28.856.0

1,500

6,000

24,000

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

No

min

al D

ata

Ra

te (

Mb

/s

AnalogModems

Broadband

Performance Increases4 times every 4 years

(42% annually)

20B

roadband Access


0.3

01980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

YearSource: Technology Futures, Inc.

014

Constant Percentage Rate of Advance

• Most new technologies progress this way

• Rates will continue if:– The improvement is technically possible– Basic approach remains the same– Demand, utility, need continue


From TFI’s Technology Forecasting Seminar


Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate

80%

90%

100%

lds

50 Mbs& Above

100 Mbs& Above

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ho

use

ho

6 Mb/s& Above

24 Mb/s

1.5 Mb/s& Above

Broadband A

ccess

300 Mbs& Above

`


0%

10%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025


2014 & Above


U.S. Broadband Lifecycles (Residential Subscribers)

80%

90%

100%

s

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Per

cen

tag

e o

f H

ou

seh

old

s

1.5Mb/s

6 Mb/s24

Mb/s

50 Mb/s

All BroadbandHouseholds

Broadband A

ccess

100Mb/s

300 Mb/s& Above


Lifecycle (t) = Substitution (t) – Next Substitution (t)

0%

10%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

P

Year Source: Technology Futures, Inc.

2014



Resulting Average Data Rate

10 000

100.000

Mb

/s) Growth Rate = 33%

0.100

1.000

10.000

Ave

rag

e D

ata

Ra

te (

M

TrendLine

WeightedAverage

20B

roadband Access


0.0101995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


014

C t Th ti fl t hi t iCaveat: The generations reflect historic trends in nominal bandwidth demand. Market forces may accelerate these without a corresponding acceleration in actual bandwidth requirements.


Example: 300 Mb/s & Above may include a lot of “pre-mature” Gigabit!


Availability vs Subscribers, 300 Mb/s & Above - Updated

90%

100%

Required

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Per

cen

tag

e o

f H

ou

seh

old

s RequiredAvailability(300 Mb/s& Above)

BroadbandSubscribers

(300 Mb/s & Above)

Broadband A

ccess


0%

10%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

P


2014

O li Vid F tOnline Video Forecasts



Internet Video – Peak Period Traffic –North America, Fixed Access


Netflix Streaming Members, Domestic

80%

90%

100%

old

s

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Per

cen

tag

e o

f H

ou

seh

o

On

line V

ide

o

Netflix Streaming Members


0%

10%

2010 2015 2020 2025


2015

Historical data source: Netflix


Online Video Users

80%

90%

100%

s

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Pe

rcen

tag

e o

f T

V V

iew

ers

On

line V

ideo

Netflix Streaming Members (Pct of HHs)

All Online Video Users


0%

10%

2010 2015 2020 2025


2015

Historical data source for Netflix: Netflix

Households with Internet Connected TVs

90%

100%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

erc

enta

ge

of

Ho

use

ho

lds

On

line V

idHouseholds with Internet Connected TV


0%

10%

20%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Pe


deo

2015

Internet Connected TV

Historical data source: Leichtman Research Group


Online Video Minutes, Percent of Total TV Viewing (Scale to 10%)

9%

10%

Reporting change:Additional video

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Per

cen

tag

e o

f T

V M

inu

tes

Intern

et Vid

eo2 0

Online Video Minutes (among online video users)

Additional videoapplications


0%

1%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025


015

( g )

Historical Data Source: Nielsen

Online Video Minutes, Percent of Total TV Viewing (Full Scale)

90%

100%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Pe

rcen

tag

e o

f T

V M

inu

tes

Inte

rne

t Vid

eo

Online Video Minutes (among online video users)


0%

10%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025


o2

015

Historical Data Source: Nielsen

(among online video users)


HDTV Households

80%

90%

100%

old

s

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ho

us

eh

o

HD

TV

HDTVHouseholds


0%

10%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


2015

Households

Historical data sources:2001-2004 Misc, 2005-2009 Leichtman Research

Ultra-HD Households (aka 4K)



Ultra-HD Households (aka 4K)

80%

90%

100%

ds

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Per

cen

tag

e o

f H

ou

seh

ol

HD

TV

2

HDTVHouseholds

Ultra-HDTVHouseholds


0%

10%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


2015

HDTV Historical data sources:2001-2004 Misc, 2005-2013 Leichtman Research

Source: Strategy Analytics

Copyright © 2015, Technology Futures, Inc. 24Your Bridge to the Future

(512) 258-8898 • www.tfi.com

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