1210 1250 new tech new modeling boeing
DESCRIPTION
modelTRANSCRIPT
Proprietary:
The information contained herein is proprietary to The Boeing Company and shall not be reproduced or disclosed in whole or in part or used for any reason except when such user possesses direct, written authorization from The Boeing Company.
The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance. Actual results may vary
depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than that intended by Boeing.
Boeing is a trademark of The Boeing Company.
New Technologies
New Modeling -event based maintenance forecasting
Ken Magill
Regional Director, Airline Economics
September 2014
Integrated Cost Analysis System
Copyright © 2013, Boeing. All rights reserved. 2
Providing
accurate
airplane cost
data, world class
analytics, to guide
fleet decisions
The standard for airline economic modeling
Latest methods for airplane economic comparisons
Insight on future airline decisions
Accuracy in presenting model costs
Integrated Cost Analysis System
Copyright © 2013, Boeing. All rights reserved. 3
How many customers doesit take, on average, to coverthe cost of a flight?
Copyright © 2013, Boeing. All rights reserved. 4
Copyright © 2013, Boeing. All rights reserved. 5
11% Maintenance costs
59%
29%
1%
Fuel costs
Salaries, taxes and fees
Ownership costs
Other operating and non-
operating costs
Profit
The Wall Street Journal, June 6, 2012
Generating answers
on airplane economics
to help airlines meet
with successCopyright © 2013, Boeing. All rights reserved. 6
Reached the end of their useful life
Legacy Systems
• Utilized for nearly 20
years
• Unable to grow into
the 21st century
• Moving on
E M T7
IntegrationICAS aligns all aspects of airline economic analysis
E M T8
Intro
Non-Recurring Introduction Costs
MaintCost2
Recurring Maintenance Costs
OpCost
Recurring Operational Costs
• Airplane Performance
• Maintenance Events
• Airframe Spares and Commonality
• Shop Visits Rates and Derate
• Ownership
• Fleet Economics
• Visualization
Advanced MethodologiesICAS provides better information and analyses
E M T9
Including knowledge of …
Single-Aisle126-200+Seats
Large400+Seats
Twin-Aisle230-399Seats
Regional70-89 Seats
SmallSingle-Aisle90-125 Seats
Copyright © 2013, Boeing. All rights reserved. 10
Boeing Airplanes Airbus Airplanes
And Many Others
1
1
New Technologies – new methods
Maintenance Planning
Documents (Interval)
Maintenance Planning
Documents (Interval)
MRO QuotesMRO Quotes
Boeing’s Vendor CostsBoeing’s Vendor Costs
Industry PublicationsIndustry Publications
Boeing’s TOPIC$
Conferences
Boeing’s TOPIC$
Conferences
Boeing’s Reliability
Department (RM&T)
Boeing’s Reliability
Department (RM&T)
Boeing’s In Service
Data Program (ISDP)
Boeing’s In Service
Data Program (ISDP)
Copyright © 2013, Boeing. All rights reserved. 12
US DOT Form 41DataUS DOT Form 41Data
Capitalizing on a wide range of industry sources
Operator Reported Data Additional Sources
737NG modeling is based on significant industry
data.
Maintenance
Event
# of Airlines
Reported# of Data Points
A-Check 26 2165
C-Check 31 908
D-Check 17 236
APU 25 150
Landing Gear 22 97
777 well represented at TOPIC$ conference
Maintenance
Event
# of Airlines
Reported# of Data Points
A-Check 13 1546
C-Check 10 135
D-Check 3 61
APU 9 60
Landing Gear 8 30
Life-Cycle Maintenance CostsICAS allows for “life-cycle” costs to be presented for any period
$
Years
Annual Airframe Mx Cash Flows
Study “Life-Cycle” Sample
Average
“Life-Cycle”
Cost
1
6
Days Out of Service (DOS)ICAS models revenue opportunities
• Function of event labor hours (2,385 above), labor force size, and productivity
• Occur during scheduled maintenance down-time periods, but include routine and non-routine maintenance content
• Does not include maintenance down-time periods for unplanned events
• Affects annual utilization and availability
0
5
10
15
20
DO
S
Years
Days Out of Service737
T
IATA MCR Tool 2010
The data and programs contained in this application are to be used
solely by the IATA MCTF participating airlines and manufacturers.
Exceptions are only allowed with permission of the IATA Engineering
and Maintenance Group (AEG).
International Air Transport Association
Airplane Availability
Airplane Availability: 86%, but used 70%!
How a 777 spends a day
Each Hour
Enhanced
Utilization: $1 to 4
million per year
Profit Opportunity
Annual Days Out of Service per Airplane
Airplane Type:
Max TOGW (LB):
Brake Type:
Avg Flight Time(FltHrs):
Study Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Year End Fleet Size 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Effective Fleet Size 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Utilization: Trips/Yr 730 728 728 716 728 730 711 728 705 711
Avg Airplane Age: FltHrs 2,364 7,087 11,810 16,447 21,166 25,889 30,519 35,231 39,943 44,435
Avg Airplane Age: Years 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50 4.50 5.50 6.50 7.50 8.50 9.50
A Check 4.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 5.00 4.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 5.00
Heavy Check 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.00 0.00 0.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 20.00
Total DOS 4.00 5.00 5.00 11.00 5.00 4.00 13.00 5.00 4.00 25.00
6.49 Maintenance Plan: 777X_Plan
721,300 Thrust (LB): 93,000
Carbon Derate(%): 28.70
777-8X Engine : GE9X-93B
Estimated Life-Cycle Average Costs $/Trip (3,000nm)
Airplane Type: 777-8X Engine : GE9X-93B Flight Time: 6.485
Max TOGW(LB): Thrust(LB): 93,000 Range (NM): 3,000
Brake Type: Carbon Engine Derate (%): 28.7 SVR: 0.0390
Effective Fleet Size: 1 Avg Time on Wing (Hrs): 25,630 Avg Annual Utilization (Trips): 725
IN-HOUSE CONTRACT
LABOR MATERIAL TOTAL LABOR MATERIAL TOTAL TOTAL
AIRFRAME
Line Check 103.48 169.45 272.93 62.83 42.36 105.19 378.12
A Check 64.22 191.73 255.95 - - - 255.95
Heavy Check 116.98 202.00 318.98 41.04 30.43 71.46 390.44
Total On-Airplane 284.69 563.18 847.86 103.86 72.79 176.65 1,024.51
Brakes 8.13 150.10 158.23 3.36 26.49 29.85 188.07
Wheels, Tires 5.67 34.75 40.42 2.34 6.13 8.48 48.90
Landing Gear 26.44 14.50 40.94 75.71 17.72 93.43 134.37
APU 8.13 53.82 61.95 44.45 125.57 170.02 231.97
Other Components 233.63 197.68 431.31 234.58 84.72 319.30 750.61
Total-Shop 282.00 450.85 732.84 360.45 260.63 621.08 1,353.92
Contractor's Surcharge 40.01 40.01 40.01
Shipping and Handling 70.98 70.98 - - 70.98
AIRFRAME (Sub-Total) 566.68 1,085.01 1,651.69 464.31 373.43 837.74 2,489.43
POWERPLANT
QEC Shop 53.15 175.99 229.14 53.37 75.42 128.79 357.93
Engine Shop 72.63 2,124.73 2,197.36 94.98 1,144.09 1,239.06 3,436.43
Life Limited Parts 157.86 157.86 - - 157.86
Total Shop 125.78 2,458.58 2,584.36 148.34 1,219.51 1,367.85 3,952.21
Contractor's Surcharge - 146.34 146.34 146.34
Shipping and Handling 161.05 161.05 - - 161.05
POWERPLANT (Sub-Total) 125.78 2,619.63 2,745.41 148.34 1,365.85 1,514.19 4,259.60
TOTAL DIRECT 692.46 3,704.64 4,397.10 612.66 1,739.28 2,351.94 6,749.03
OVERHEAD 1,796.14 1,796.14 1,796.14
TOTAL MAINTENANCE 2,488.60 3,704.64 6,193.24 612.66 1,739.28 2,351.94 8,545.17
721,300
Annual Maintenance Costs $/airplane
Airplane Type:
Max TOGW (LB):
Brake Type:
Study Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Year End Fleet Size 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Effective Fleet Size 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Annual Utilization(FH/Year) 4,702 4,702 4,702 4,702 4,702 4,702 4,702 4,702 4,702 4,702
Flight Time(Hours) 6.485 6.485 6.485 6.485 6.485 6.485 6.485 6.485 6.485 6.485
Avg Fleet Age (Years) 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50 4.50 5.50 6.50 7.50 8.50 9.50
Avg Fleet Age (FltCycles) 363 1,088 1,814 2,539 3,264 3,989 4,714 5,439 6,164 6,889
Avg Fleet Age (FH) 2,357 7,059 11,761 16,462 21,164 25,865 30,567 35,269 39,970 44,672
Airframe Line 200,765 239,780 261,584 263,047 264,510 265,973 267,436 268,899 270,363 271,826
A Check 123,172 170,677 144,868 182,815 184,662 149,090 188,092 189,940 153,312 193,370
Heavy Check 0 0 0 263,979 0 0 298,472 0 0 1,752,638
On-Airplane Total 323,937 410,457 406,452 709,842 449,172 415,063 754,000 458,839 423,674 2,217,834
Brakes 0 0 338,107 0 0 339,940 0 341,836 0 0
Wheels, Tires 30,420 30,453 30,490 45,800 30,577 30,611 45,984 30,699 30,734 30,770
Landing Gear 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
APU 0 0 289,716 0 0 370,193 0 0 448,370 0
Other Components 288,984 359,040 429,097 470,792 478,965 487,138 495,312 504,048 513,447 522,846
Shop Total 319,404 389,494 1,087,410 516,592 509,542 1,227,882 541,296 876,583 992,551 553,616
Contractor's Surcharge 7,075 8,548 34,334 12,492 10,505 40,437 13,131 16,688 55,580 13,456
Shipping and Handling 19,617 24,620 48,869 38,718 28,340 51,702 40,878 48,336 85,710 41,683
AIRFRAME Total 670,033 833,118 1,577,065 1,277,644 997,559 1,735,085 1,349,305 1,400,447 1,557,515 2,826,588
Powerplant
QEC Shop 137,800 171,206 204,613 224,495 228,392 232,290 236,187 240,353 244,835 249,317
Engine Shop 0 0 0 0 0 12,059,012 0 0 0 0
Life Limited Parts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Shop Total 137,800 171,206 204,613 224,495 228,392 12,291,301 236,187 240,353 244,835 249,317
Contractor's Surcharge 3,484 4,329 5,174 5,677 5,775 488,959 5,972 6,078 6,191 6,304
Shipping and Handling 4,743 5,893 7,042 7,727 7,861 531,337 8,129 8,272 8,427 8,581
POWERPLANT Total 146,028 181,428 216,829 237,898 242,028 13,311,598 250,288 254,703 259,452 264,202
DIRECT MAINTENANCE TOTAL 816,061 1,014,547 1,793,894 1,515,542 1,239,587 15,046,683 1,599,593 1,655,150 1,816,967 3,090,790
OVERHEAD 498,833 622,407 749,069 968,802 762,896 2,018,384 1,026,566 829,637 1,847,793 1,068,839
TOTAL MAINTENANCE 1,314,894 1,636,954 2,542,963 2,484,344 2,002,483 17,065,066 2,626,160 2,484,787 3,664,760 4,159,628
721,300 Derate(%): 28.7
Carbon Range (NM): 3,000
777-8X Engine / Thrust (LB): GE9X-93B / 93,000