12l - cadenas de markov (practica absorbentes) (solucionario)
TRANSCRIPT
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NV 1M 2M 3M PG
NV 0 0.6 0 0 0.4
1M 0 0 0.5 0 0.5
2M 0 0 0 0.4 0.6
3M 0 0 0 0 0.7
PG 0 0 0 0 1
IN 0 0 0 0 0
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IN
0
0
0
0.3
0
1
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IN
0
0
0
0.3
0
1
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NV 1M 2M 3M PG
NV 0 0.6 0 0 0.4
1M 0 0 0.5 0 0.5
2M 0 0 0 0.4 0.6
3M 0 0 0 0 0.7
PG 0 0 0 0 1
IN 0 0 0 0 0
Hallar:
NV 1M 2M 3M
NV 1 0 0 0
1M 0 1 0 0
2M 0 0 1 03M 0 0 0 1
NV 1M
NV 1 -0.6
1M 0 1
2M 0 0
3M 0 0
Q
O IN=(I-Q)-1
I
(I-Q)
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IN
0
0
0
0.3
0
1
NV 1M 2M 3M
NV 0 0.6 0 0
1M 0 0 0.5 0
2M 0 0 0 0.43M 0 0 0 0
2M 3M
0 0
-0.5 0
1 -0.4
0 1
Q
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NV 1M 2M 3M PG
NV 0 0.6 0 0 0.4
1M 0 0 0.5 0 0.5
2M 0 0 0 0.4 0.6
3M 0 0 0 0 0.7
PG 0 0 0 0 1
IN 0 0 0 0 0
Hallar:
NV 1M 2M 3M
NV 1 0 0 0
1M 0 1 0 0
2M 0 0 1 03M 0 0 0 1
NV 1M
NV 1 -0.6
1M 0 1
2M 0 0
3M 0 0
NV 1M
NV 1 0.6
1M 0 1
2M 0 0
3M 0 0
Q
O IN=(I-Q)-1
I
(I-Q)
N=(I-Q)-1
Q
O IN=(I-Q)-1
I
(I-Q)
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IN
0
0
0
0.3
0
1
NV 1M 2M 3M
NV 0 0.6 0 0
1M 0 0 0.5 0
2M 0 0 0 0.43M 0 0 0 0
2M 3M
0 0
-0.5 0
1 -0.4
0 1
2M 3M
0.3 0.12
0.5 0.2
1 0.4
0 1
QQ
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NV 1M 2M 3M PG IN
NV 0 0.6 0 0 0.4 0
1M 0 0 0.5 0 0.5 0
2M 0 0 0 0.4 0.6 0
3M 0 0 0 0 0.7 0.3
PG 0 0 0 0 1 0
IN 0 0 0 0 0 1
NV 1M 2M 3M NV 1M 2M 3M
NV 1 0 0 0 NV 0 0.6 0 0
1M 0 1 0 0 1M 0 0 0.5 0
2M 0 0 1 0 2M 0 0 0 0.4
3M 0 0 0 1 3M 0 0 0 0
NV 1M 2M 3M
NV 1 -0.6 0 0
1M 0 1 -0.5 0
2M 0 0 1 -0.4
3M 0 0 0 1
NV 1M 2M 3M PG
NV 1 0.6 0.3 0.12 NV 0.4
1M 0 1 0.5 0.2 1M 0.5
2M 0 0 1 0.4 2M 0.6
3M 0 0 0 1 3M 0.7
PG IN
NV 0.964 0.036
1M 0.94 0.06
2M 0.88 0.12
3M 0.7 0.3
a) Cul es la probabilidad que ua !ue"a ue#a sea !obrada al$ua #e%& 96.4'
b) Cul es la probabilidad que ua !ue"a a"rasada u (es se #uel#a al(e"e i!obrable& 6'
!) *i los i$resos por !ue"as ue#as so *+.10000 e pro(edio (esual, !u"o diero ser i!obrable !ada ao& 0.03
Q R
O I
QI
(I-Q)
N=(I-Q)-1
(I-Q)-1R
R
Q R
O I
QI
(I-Q)
Q R
O I
QI
(I-Q)
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PRIN EXP ASOC SNSoc SSoc
PRIN 0.8 0.15 0 0.05 0
EXP 0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0
ASOC 0 0 0.95 0 0.05
SNSoc 0 0 0 1 0
SSoc 0 0 0 0 1
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PRIN EXP ASOC SNSoc SSoc
PRIN 0.8 0.15 0 0.05 0
EXP 0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0
ASOC 0 0 0.95 0 0.05
SNSoc 0 0 0 1 0
SSoc 0 0 0 0 1
Q RO I
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PRIN EXP ASOC SNSoc SSoc
PRIN 0.8 0.15 0 0.05 0
EXP 0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0
ASOC 0 0 0.95 0 0.05
SNSoc 0 0 0 1 0
SSoc 0 0 0 0 1
PRIN EXP ASOC
PRIN 1 0 0 PRIN
EXP 0 1 0 EXP
ASOC 0 0 1 ASOC
PRIN EXP ASOC
PRIN 0.2 -0.15 0EXP 0 0.3 -0.2
ASOC 0 0 0.05
Q RO I
I
(I-Q)
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PRIN EXP ASOC
0.8 0.15 0
0 0.7 0.2
0 0 0.95Q
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PRIN EXP ASOC SNSoc SSoc
PRIN 0.8 0.15 0 0.05 0
EXP 0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0
ASOC 0 0 0.95 0 0.05
SNSoc 0 0 0 1 0
SSoc 0 0 0 0 1
PRIN EXP ASOC
PRIN 1 0 0 PRIN
EXP 0 1 0 EXP
ASOC 0 0 1 ASOC
PRIN EXP ASOC
PRIN 0.2 -0.15 0EXP 0 0.3 -0.2
ASOC 0 0 0.05
PRIN EXP ASOC
PRIN 5 2.5 10
EXP 0 3.33333333 13.3333333
ASOC 0 0 20
Q RO I
I
(I-Q)
(I-Q)-1
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PRIN EXP ASOC
0.8 0.15 0
0 0.7 0.2
0 0 0.95Q
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PRIN EXP ASOC SNSoc SSoc
PRIN 0.8 0.15 0 0.05 0
EXP 0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0
ASOC 0 0 0.95 0 0.05
SNSoc 0 0 0 1 0
SSoc 0 0 0 0 1
PRIN EXP ASOC PRIN EXP ASOCPRIN 1 0 0 PRIN 0.8 0.15 0
EXP 0 1 0 EXP 0 0.7 0.2
ASOC 0 0 1 ASOC 0 0 0.95
PRIN EXP ASOC
PRIN 0.2 -0.15 0
EXP 0 0.3 -0.2
ASOC 0 0 0.05
PRIN EXP ASOC SNSoc SSoc
PRIN 5 2.5 10 PRIN 0.05 0
EXP 0 3.33333333 13.3333333 EXP 0.1 0
ASOC 0 0 20 ASOC 0 0.05
SNSoc SSoc
PRIN 0.5 0.5
EXP 0.33333333 0.66666667
ASOC 0 1
Q RO I
QI
(I-Q)
(I-Q)-1
I-Q)-1R
R
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1 2 3 4
1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1
2 0 1 0 0
3 0.5 0.3 0 0.2
4 0 0 0 1
1 3 2 4
1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
3 0.5 0 0.3 0.2
2 0 0 1 0
4 0 0 0 1
I Q
1 3 1 3
1 1 0 1 0.2 0.4
3 0 1 3 0.5 0
I-Q
1 3
1 0.8 -0.4
3 -0.5 1
x 1 ie(po e
1 31 1.666667 0.666667
1 1 2.33333
3 0.833333 1.333333 1 3 2.16667
R
2 4
1 0.3 0.1
3 0.3 0.2
2 4
1 0.7 0.3
3 0.65 0.35
robabilidad de absor!i
(I-Q)-1 (I-Q)-11
(I-Q)-1R
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perado para la absor!i