13 april 2018 the future of energy in oregon

The Future of Energy in Oregon:Harnessing Trends and OpportunitiesThe Future of Energy in Oregon: Harnessing Trends and Opportunities
Jessica Shipley Associate, US Programs Regulatory Assistance Project
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DO PT
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We are here
Sources: GTM Research and Solar Energy Industry Association
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Source: US Department of Energy data from http://www.ourworldofenergy.com
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Global Best of Class: 2015
Source: Michael Liebreich, presentation to California ISO, October 18, 2017. Data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance; images from Siemens, Wikimedia Commons, and Electrek
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Source: Michael Liebreich, presentation to California ISO, October 18, 2017. Data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance; images from Siemens, Wikimedia Commons, and Electrek
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Xcel Energy, All-Source Bids, December 2017
Existing Plant Average Fuel and O&M from USEIA Table 8.4 Electric Power Annual 2016
$/MWh
Chart5
Fuel
Solar Wind Coal Gas Nuclear 25.5 24.97 7.45 O & M
Solar Wind Coal Gas Nuclear 10.58 5.23 17.91 Xcel Bids (All-In Cost)
Solar Wind Coal Gas Nuclear 29.5 18.100000000000001
Sheet1
Solar
Wind
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Fuel
$ 26
$ 25
$ 7
$ 5
$ 2
$ 11
Fuel
Solar Wind Coal Gas Nuclear 25.5 24.97 7.45 O & M
Solar Wind Coal Gas Nuclear 10.58 5.23 17.91 Xcel Bids (All-In Cost)
Solar Wind Coal Gas Nuclear 29.5 18.100000000000001
Xcel Bid median prices $/MWh
Fuel
Solar Wind 29.5 18.100000000000001
Fuel
Coal Gas Nuclear 10.58 5.23 17.91
Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 10
Other Technology Costs Are Declining Too – Storage
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2017
Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
Levelized Cost of Service
0
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20
30
40
50
60
2020 2050
• Declining power sector carbon emissions • Information revolution is coming to energy
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Implications
Implications: Flexible Load
• Can be controlled into low-cost, low-emission hours
• Similar options to control HVAC and EVs
Implications: Declining Power Sector Carbon Emissions
Implications: Information Revolution
Machine-to-Machine connections = more than half of device connections by 2021
Policy, Regulatory and Market Trends
Consensus Around Deep Decarbonization
Electrification
2017 Legislative and Regulatory Action on Electric Vehicles
Electrification
2017 Legislative and Regulatory Action on Electric Vehicles
• Studies and Investigations • Legislation and Regulation • Utility Rate Design • Market Development • Financial incentives • State and Utility Deployment of
Infrastructure
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Opportunity for “Win-Win-Win”
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Look At the Fundamentals
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1. Saves Customers Money Long-Term
3. Reduces Environmental Impacts
Fuel cost savings by switching to an EV
Lifecycle costs look good too
Source: Fleetcarma
Flexible load is valuable to the grid
Source: E Source, adapted from Integral Analytics Inc.
Unlike this inflexible load
Actual net load of 7,149 MW on
Feb 18, 2018
Actual 3- hour ramp of 14,777 MW on March 4
2018
Avoid Home Charging during
3. Reduces Environmental
Source: Aber, Judah, ”Electric Bus Analysis for New York City Transit,” Columbia University, May 2016.
Other Environmental Benefits
Closing Thoughts – Harnessing Opportunities
• Implications of carbon pricing policy? • How well do our existing policy
structures work? • Capturing benefits of newly-available
flexible demand? • Collaborate on the big questions
about utility regulatory paradigms
Learn more about our work at raponline.org
Contact us at [email protected]
Key topics
Wind Cost Per kWh (US)
Xcel Energy, All-Source Bids, December 2017
Other Technology Costs Are Declining Too – Storage
Other Technology Costs: Heat Pumps
Implications
Implications: Information Revolution
Consensus Around Deep Decarbonization
Look At the Fundamentals
Slide Number 25
Lifecycle costs look good too
Slide Number 28
Unlike this inflexible load
A Natural Tool for Grid Management
Slide Number 33
Other Environmental Benefits
Slide Number 36
Slide Number 37
Slide Number 38

13 april 2018 the future of energy in oregon

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