PURPOSE To provide (1) baseline population & energy data (2) a critical objective analysis of accepted scientifi c knowledge for addressing identifi ed community perception and key concerns of wind energy development(3) a “big picture” understanding of wind turbine pros and cons - for our unique community concerns - to aid the Carroll County Board of Supervisors in making a decision that refl ects heritage and the most important values of the community.

DEMOGRAPHICS

ENERGY PROFILE

PERCEPTION SUMMARY

CONCERNS & CONSIDERATIONS

Chart 1. Created from 2010 US Census data shows abnormal low in 20 – 34 age cohorts; the best job candidates. The highest population percentage is age cohorts of 40-64; indicating known attractiveness for retirement.

-1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500

Under 5

10 to 14

20 to 24

30 to 34

40 to 44

50 to 54

60 to 64

70 to 74

80 to 84

Chart 1. Carroll County, Population Pyramid 2010

male

female

Source: US Census Bureau,

If this population age distribution continues (1) young age cohorts, taught Carroll heritage will continuously move away to raise families while (2) the infl ow of age cohorts to retirement continues.

Development decisions may benefi t certain age cohorts. Decisions should provide suitable opportunities to encourage the long-term residence of children to ensure persistence of raised hard-working mountain heritage.

Island Creek, KY

Clintwood Elkhorn Mine, KY

Black Mountain, VA

Fork Ridge, VA

Black Mountain, VA

Fork Ridge, VA

Island Creek, KY

No. 1 Prep Plant of Red River Coal Co, VA

Prep Plant #1 of Ambrose Branch

Coal Co, VA

KY

NC

VA

WV

TN

Map 1 Greater Southern Appalachian Region

(Arnette & Zobel, 2012, p. 4607)

July 1, 2010 Red Hill General Store lifted to the sky a 5.5 kilowatt wind turbine on the Horton beef cattle farm in Fancy Gap, Virginia.

The Red Hill Breezy lift-off was a celebration attended by 40 community members. The Breezy was built by with off-the-shelf parts and local products, “Building this turbine? I guess it’s the common sense values passed down in Appalachia.”

Community members pass the turbine and often stop by for updates. It is routine to look for the spinning yellow popular blades. Perhaps it’s a not just a source of power, but an important connection to the land and the seasonal shifts in wind that make the mountains and our heritage unique.

SPECS

RATED WIND SPEED: 24 MPH

AVERAGE ANNUAL WIND SPEED: 12.49mph

WIND SPEED ZONE: 3

80 FT TALL TOWER10 FT BLADE DIAMETERRATED SPEED: 120 RPMSCAPACITY FACTOR: 25.7%

CUT IN WIND SPEED: 8-10MPH

How much power is in the wind resource of Carroll County and how much of said power could turbines extract? Dependent on how fast the wind is blowing, the swept area of the blades, and the detailed characteristics of the turbine. We start with the power in the wind itself.

Our centralized distribution network - how we deliver electricity - is vulnerable to disruption and failure. Restoring power after a failure, from storms or demand, begins with densely populated areas. Rural areas regain access to power last. Reducing fossil fuel use and lessening the distance energy travels to rural areas by power lines will stimulate energy independence and decrease pollution from emissions (Hoesen&Letendre, 2010, p. 2214).

CENTRALIZED DISTRIBUTION The increased severity and frequency of storms is acknowledged by Appalachian Power. WSLS7 on March 27, 2013 explained AEP is taking a proactive $30 million dollars approach to prevent power outages by cutting trees. "Trying to balance the cost and reliability of service is something we always struggle with" said an APCo spokesman. "Trimming trees is our largest expense and the number one cause of outages - we're

hoping to save customers money and keep the lights on," (Zibton, 2013).

Rural areas have vast unexploited renewable energy potential. Renewable energy systems make a more secure power supply and support rural communities’ challenges in growth, jobs and sustainability; aggravated by the current fi nancial and economic crisis (Doukas, 2012).

• Why are 20-30 groups not staying? Do they plan to return home?

• Are the 20-30 age group living in the area employed and in what?

“It is about doing what you can with the time and resources you

have - if building a wind turbine is a possibility - there is no reason not to

do it.” -Tom Largen

A HOMEGROWN MOUNTAIN LIFTOFF

Power is generated by wind speeds suffi cient to run a turbine. The economic cost competitiveness accounts for intermittence - with capacity factors about 30% (the same as traditional coal plant effi ciency) - Thus, assuming real power production potential.

Newer wind generation is cost-competative with conventional sources shown in Chart 2(Randolph, 2008, p. 463).

Wind turbines have no fuel cost and relatively low operating costs allowing confi dent prediction of energy costs years into the future (Rynne et al. 2011).

Positives:• Diversifi cation of energy & source we may need• Tax revenue for community• Farmers & landowners profi t from resources• Market competition lowers electricity cost• Less use of mountain top removal coalConcerns:• Recreation, scenic integrity, tourism• Don’t want a “NYC of turbines”• Bird & environmental impacts, • Landscape preservation• Noise, safetyNeed Information for:• Setbacks, Decommissioning• Turbine effi ciency, cost competitiveness, jobs• Zoning, ordinance legal standing • Energy capacity of Carroll Other Common Concerns:• Cultural and historic resources• Property Values

ECONOMICS + EFFICIENCY

ENERGY SUBSIDY OVERVIEW Federal incentives and programs have long been used to encourage domestic energy production. Until recently, they exclusively funded fossil fuel production. This created an abundance of affordable energy, powering strong economic growth, but built a dependence on fossil fuels. Today’s energy concerns – volatile prices or environmental risk – are creating a need for a more diverse energy supply.

Un-level Playing Field: Energy incentives for oil and gas are permanent and have been in place since the 1920s. U.S. subsidies for oil, natural gas and coal totaled over $500 billion from 1950 to 2006. Wind energy’s primary incentive, the Production Tax Credit (PTC), has been allowed to expire multiple times, including in 1999, 2001 and 2003 and has been consistently reinstated for only one or two year terms.

PTC of 2.2 cents/kwh, mostly applies to commercial scale projects, makes wind power costs comparable to electricity from coal @ 6 cents/kwh.

“My name is Brenda Mutter Urias. I’d like to welcome you to my home here in Is-

land Creek of Phyllis, Kentucky.

My father’s dad settled here in 1825. He built a home and raised a family. He was a farmer. In 1955 my father built the house

TAX INCENTIVESThe federal level offers aninvestment tax credit (ITC) of 30% of the value of the renewable energy system as built for large-scale or residential renewable power producers.

Wind energy projects often provide signifi cant sources of new income for local landowners and governments, and they may generate increased activity for local businesses. Property tax payments on the order of $7,000/MW and landowner lease payments on the order of $3,000/MW to $4,000/MW per year are not uncommon. Routine operations and maintenance work can often be carried out by locals (p.43).

2003 2004 2005 2006

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

2006

cen

ts/k

wh

Wind sample includes projects built from 1998 - 2006

U.S. Wholesale Power Price RangeCumulative Capacity-Weighted Average Power Price

The cumulative capacity-weighted average wind price in the United States compared with conventional generation wholesale power prices.

BIRD IMPACTS Although measures to reduce bird mortality should be taken, the National Audubon Society strongly supports wind power helping to mitigate climate change, a far greater threat to the world’s bird populations. (Randolph, 2008, p.481)

Buildings/WindowsCats

Other

High tension wires

Vehicles

Pesticides

Communication Towers

1 100 200 300 400 500 600

M������� �� B��� D����� ��� Y���

(0.03) Wind turbines

Table 1. Employment Status, Carroll County, Virginia, 2010

APPALACHIA 84.39% COAL OF TOTAL MWH

US 42.2% COAL OF TOTAL MWHConventional Power plantsGlen Lyn Giles County Opened: 1918 335 MW capacity

Clinch RiverRussell County Opened: 1958 705 MW capacity

&

Coal-fi red steam-turbine power converts less than 1/3 of the energy in coal fuel into electricity. The other 2/3 of coal energy is lost in waste heat cooling water.

That % electricity

to Carroll County.

26,000 MW estimation for residential energy consumption in Carroll, 2010

symbols on map 2 designate mountaintop removal mines suppling the coal fuel to both generation plants (circled below).

16,696 households in Carroll 15,517 kwh/yr average energy use per

residential customer 201010.36 cents/kwh average energy price

Wind energy’s value to electricity buyers and users (its competitiveness) as a portfolio diversifi cation tool. Investors want price-stable products to offset variability in stocks, wind energy’s fi xed-price fi ts in an energy portfolio with more volatile assets. When natural-gas prices are high, utilities select wind energy as the most economic option. When natural gas prices are low, wind energy provides the hedge value that

Glen Lyn

Clinch River

Map 2 Coal Resource Fuel: Clinch River + Glen Lyn

Table 3 Tons of Emissions of greenhouse gases within the Appalachian region (map 1)

Total emissions:166.68 million tons per year. 99.3% of emissions from coal-only plants (Arnette & Zobel, 2012). Carbon dioxide accelerates global warming, one of the most pressing national security, economic & environmental problems today. SOx and NOx harm human health & are subject to long-range transport; creating acid rain and other depositions that degrade water & ecological systems (Randolph, 2008, p. 43-55).

SCENIC INTEGRITY

LANDUSE CONSIDERATIONS Ridge top land is often valued for residential development and competes with wind turbines (Carson & Raichle, 2009).

Construction impacts can be major. Actual space taken by turbines in the end is arguably minor. Only about 2 to 5 percent of the total land footprint of the facility is typically removed from service. The remaining land area may be used for its

People often have deep links to specifi c landscapes and may be bothered by changes to them. Compared to other renewable energy technologies, wind energy technology is relatively visible. It is often installed on high points in the landscape (to capture the best wind resource) and in rural regions sometimes noted particularly for their scenic or aesthetic values.

Modern wind turbines are also dramatic new presences in the landscape and for some are symbols of industrial development. As the industry continues to mature, wind turbine rotors are expected to grow larger to capture economies of scale, and wind turbine towers are expected to grow taller to capture more productive winds. Both of these features are likely to make wind turbines more visible as well as visible over greater distances.

When aesthetic concerns, which are common to many types of infrastructure projects, are not addressed early on at the community level, conditions become ripe for misinterpretation of information, diminished public confi dence, and increased project costs, if extensive delays or signifi cant project reconfi gurations become necessary. The role of timely and thorough planning is fundamental.

Utilizing similar turbine types to create consistency and uniformity within a project, selecting turbines of higher generating capacity to require fewer turbine installations for a given energy output, and placing as much electrical infrastructure below grade as possible may also help to minimize aesthetic impact.

DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY“Permit by rule” for construction and operation of wind projects with a rated capacity of 100 MW and less.

FARMERS & MOONSHINEMaking corn liquor, or “moonshine” is a colorful part of heritage growing up in the mountains, according to Donald Brady. Brady, who grew up in a Carroll County mountain family of the early 1930s, says he is proud to know the ways of the old-time moonshiner. Corn liquor not only provided extra money in a time when $100 a year was a great income, it also greased the gears of social life in the mountains. “They would take a half a gallon of liquor and go to have a corn-shuckin’. So when everybody got done shuckin’ the corn, everybody would have the half-gallon of liquor and they would have a big party that

CARROLL HERITAGEnight,” Brady said. Moonshining was an economic necessity for many farmers, as the season’s corn that could’t be sold. “Liquor was a business at one time in this part of the country. You could go up here on top of the hill and you could see at least 10 stills -- the smoke fl ying from them.”

“It’s no criminal offense to make liquor -- it’s a colorful thing. It ought never to be stomped out. It ought to be allowed for somebody to make it yet.” These days, Brady is happy preaching the virtues of no-till farming and hoping to help other farmers, and government offi cials, to conserve the land he has known for so many years.

COMMUNITY GOALS• Economic development • Energy price and availability reliability• Agricultural Land Preservation • Ecological Protection • Industry and Business Promotion

Horizon Wind Energy speculating 30-40 wind turbines on Stoots

“If we allow windmills, in a year and a half this place will

be fi lled. We’re not New York City & I don’t want us to be.”

March 2012

“My brother and I own land there. I’m not interested in

a windmill for my property and neither is my brother. We got a couple of red-tailed hawks that

have raised their young’uns there for the past 10 to 12

years. I have more interest in the red-tailed hawks than a

red-tailed windmill.”December 1, 2012

April 2012

September 2012

Board to develop an ordinance by January 2013 to protect the county’s ridge tops.December 3,

2012

Letters to the editor

Carroll County Industrial Development Authority unanimously motioned to ask the Board to postpone drafting a windmill ordinance for a year.

“It doesn’t sound like they got much information.

There have been a lot of studies done by colleges

over the last 30 years that would be helpful.”

January 31, 2013

“I do not like residential development stripping off our scenic ridgeline. We

let Snow Realty chop off mountain sides for cabins. You cannot pick and choose what you want to zone out. If the young

people think it’s viable we should listen. I’m sure when railroads or electricity came people were skeptical and they were wrong.

Who’s to say wind energy won’t do the same? Carroll County has to be more

progressive - we have no choice. There are people who are smart enough to look at all angles. If we are a viable

place for wind then we should benefi t from it.”

Sigmon Strip #23, VA

I live in with lumber from a particular tree that grew in the mountain forest. He built it solid and with pride, just like his dad before him. His comfort was knowing his family would always have a place to call their own.

We had good well water, beautiful mountains, clear streams and clean air. We were poor in things but we were also rich. Most of our food came from the garden. My dad was a miner and he fought to help establish UMWA so workers would have better pay and medical coverage. He died at the age of 68 from black lung.

Today, the beautiful mountains are gone since the mountain-top removal mining. The streams are buried and have dried up. The air is full of dust and the well water is contaminated. The nearby blasting is taking a toll on the house. The moun-tains pose a threat to our home in fl ash fl oods and mudslides. I fear daily as to what may happen to my home. I don’t want to see it destroyed but sometimes I feel I’m watching a slow death to it and to the environment that surrounds it.”

”The ability to harness wind energy is as important as

the ability to produce crops and livestock. We owe it to

our heritage and future to do better.”

WIND ENERGY

WIND & HISTORY

Chart 2

Table 4 Gas price index, 2001-2010Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

stable-priced investments do in a portfolio.

Wind energy will be most competitive with natural gas at fi ve or six dollars per million BTU (mmbtu) or higher. Natural-gas prices are approximately $3.50 per mmbtu in late 2011, so natural gas has a near-term price advantage. Given natural gas’s price volatility seen in table 4, wind energy can be a highly valued asset. (p. 32)

Uncertainty: Passing a carbon cap or carbon tax?

“The most advanced, and cost-effective, renewable electricity generation systems are wind turbines with economics that can compete, toe-to-toe, with other large central stations at the wholesale level.” (Randolph p.463)

CONCERNS & CONSIDERATIONS

Requirements must be met for:1. Pre-construction 2. Natural-resource analyses• Wildlife (surveys for: Breeding Birds, Nonavian resources,

reptiles & amphibians, raptor migrations, bat acoustics, mist-netting and/or harp-trapping studies)

• Historic resources • Other resource impacts (natural heritage resources, scenic

resources including 5-mile survey & map)4. Determination of signifi cant adverse impacts5. Mitigation plans6. Operation + design requirements (safety)7. Post-construction monitoring

*Compliance performed by facility inspections.

RESIDENTIAL TURBINE, LOCAL CREW, FANCY GAP 2010

Maple Ridge Wind Farm , New York | NREL

How would wind turbines look on Wills Ridge? Nordex, one of two companies exploring the possibility of building wind turbines on top of Wills Ridge in Floyd County, wants to partner with the community. The Floyd Press By Wanda Combs, September 16, 2011

Turbine Base

Allegheny Ridge Wind Project in Cambria

traditional purpose(s), including farming and ranching.

Continued upscaling is likely to further reduce the number of turbines necessary. Maps that show the scale of wind energy projects relative to the total available land can be an effective to illustrate that even widespread deployment of wind energy will not result in total coverage of the landscape (Lantz, Flowers, Rynne, & Heller, 2011, p.

In the eye of the beholder?

WIND ENERGY IN APPALACHIA’S MOUNTAIN HERITAGE, CARROLL COUNTY, VA

FINAL PROJECT: ERICA LARGEN & ERICA HETZEL 4394 COMMUNITY RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS VIRGINIA TECH SPRING 2013

“It’s about being able to make something out of the tools you have and make it work.” - On building a residential wind turbine in Carroll County

Wind Turbine in Carroll County, Residential 5.5 kw, Fancy Gap