13.02, mulder — lecture on sustainable development
DESCRIPTION
SD Course in Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, 12-23 Febraury 2006TRANSCRIPT
Sustainable Development
Karel Mulder
Polynesian Society:
Clans
rivalry
Religious centres
‘ahu’
Complex Society
deforestation
Collapse
Parallel?
oil
Parallel Easter island?
Space Debris
Parallel Easter island?
Cultural collapse
• Salinisation –pumping, irrigation
• Agricultural erosion, Dust Bowl
• Monocultures: epidemics
But also sometimes creativity
• Industrial revolution by shortage of wood» --
• Steam engine
SD is not ‘environment
-Cycles-equity integrated
-Sometimes contradictory:Organic water treatment,etc..
What is an environmental problem?
karelm: voorspelling op basis van zonne activiteit: bewijs voor antropogene klimaatverandering
http://web.dmi.dk/fsweb/solarterrestrial/sunclimate/welcome.shtml
Sustainable Development:The world is our common heritagenot just environmental efficiency but also equity
As you know, I oppose the Kyoto Protocol because it exempts 80 percent of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the U.S. economy. The Senate's vote, 95-0, shows that there is a clear consensus that the Kyoto Protocol is an unfair and ineffective means of addressing global climate change concerns.
SD is related to interests
The Global Challenge
Halving our usage of environment/resources
Income in poor ‘South’ at least50 % of ‘North’ in 2050
I = P * A * TI Environmental Impact
P Population
A Affluence Consumption of services and products per capita
T Technology Environmental burden per product or service unit
80-20 rule of thumb:
20 % of world populationconsumes 80 % of naturalresources (fossil fuels, ores etc.)
Ergo: resource consumption Richworld is 16 times more than in Poor World
3,7533Wereld
5,254,54,5Overig
2,51,751,6INDUSTRIAL
20,751,1EU
1,2520,2JAPAN
3,52,52,4USA
200420032002
http://www.cpb.nl/nl/cpbreport/2003_3/cpbr033.pdf
Economic growth
A Future in 50 years?
North 2 % growthSouth 6-7 % growth
6-7 % growth for 50 years means: factor 18-302 % growth for 50 years means: factor 2.7
Result:- Equity difference reduced from factor 16 to factor 1.5-2.4- Growth resource consumption: Factor 5.8-8.2
Population growth until2050: 9,5 billion
2000 2050WORLD 6.071 8.919More developed regions 1.194 1.220Less developed regions 4.877 7.699Least developed countries 668 1.675Africa 796 1.803Asia 3.680 5.222Europe 728 632Latin America + Carib. 520 768Northern America 316 448Oceania 31 46
Data: UN Population Division, World Population in 2300 (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/longrange2.htm)
Prognosis Population
23
From Vision to ActionThe Challenge
2000 2050
Global Population 1 *
1,5 *
Affluence/person 1 *
6 – 9 *
Pollution/affluence 1 =
1/9 – 1/27 =
Pollution 1 1 – 1/2
Improvement factor “20”
20502000 TIME
E
F
F
E
C
T
Renewalby Need
And function
improvementof products and processes
20
5
1
Optimaluse