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MTT

Competitivitate si inovare determinanti

ai cresterii economice

Prof.dr. Daniela Borisov, email: daniela.hincu@man.ase.ro

Dept. Management, sala 1512, ASE din Bucuresti

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Cuprins

Abordare conceptuala - competitivitate

Programele sectoriale Romania, POS CCE

Tema de discutie BM 3 I, WEF CGI, IMD Yearbook

Studiu de caz Productivitatea muncii in Romania

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Definitie - concepte

Competitivitatea

- se definete ca acel set de instituii, politici i factori care determin nivelul prezent de productivitate al unei tri.

- Este capacitatea unei firme, companii regiuni sau economii nationale de a isi pastra sau ameliora pozitia in raport cu concurenta altor entitati comparabile; este cel mai des vazuta din perspectiva unei natiuni si este asociata concurentei internationale => capacitatea unei natiuni de a produce bunuri si servicii care fac fata testului concurentei pe pietele internationale si de a spori simultan si in mod durabil nivelul de trai al populatiei

- determin att nivelul de bunstare al unei economii la un moment dat, ct i potenialul de cretere a acesteia in viitor.

Literatura i practica economic au evideniat faptul c dezvoltarea unei economii bazate pe cunoatere reprezint unul dintre factorii cheie ai creterii competitivitii unei economii.

In timp, dezvoltarea conceptului Economitii clasici au identificat patru factori de producie: pmntul, capitalul, resursele naturale i fora de munc (Adam Smith, 1776 An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of Wealth of Nations);

D. Ricardo (1817) - cu formularea legii avantajului comparativ Principles of Political Economy and Taxation

Economitii marxiti au subliniat impactul mediului sociopolitic asupra dezvoltrii economice (K. Marx 1867 Capital: a Critique of Political Economy)

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In timp abordarea conceptului (cont.)

Weber, M., - a subliniat relaia ntre valori, credine religioase i performana economic a naiunilor (Ethic of Protestanism and the Spirit of Capitalism,1905)

Schumpeter, J., - a relevat rolul ntreprinztorului n asigurarea competitivitii (Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, 1942)

Sloan, A., i Drucker, P. au elaborat pe tema recunoaterii managementului ca factor cheie de determinare a competitivitii (Sloan, S. My Years at General Motors 1963; Drucker, P., The Age of Discontinuity 1969);

R. Solow (laureat Nobel ptr. Economie, 1987) a subliniat importana educaiei, a inovrii tehnologice i a elementelor de know-how studiind economia american pe deceniile urmtoare celui de al doilea rzboi mondial (Solow, R., Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function, 1957);

Romer, P., Negroponte, N., - pentru definirea cunotinelor ca factor de competitivitate (Negroponte, N.,Being Digital - 1995)

Porter, M., - a integrat aceste idei ntr-o manier sistematic - construind Diamantul de competitivitate (Porter, M., The Competitive Advantage of Nations 1990)

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Competitivitatea - masurare

Competitivitate = productivitate, inteleas c valoarea realizat pe baza unei uniti de factor de producie[1].

In accepiunea Uniunii Europene, competitivitatea inseamn, cumulativ, productivitate i avantaj comparativ pe plan international. Productivitatea subsumeaz, in fapt, elementele intrinseci avantajului comparativ, ins include o gam mai larg de factori. In viziune comunitara, competitivitatea este determinata de creterea productivitii.

Competitivitatea se creeaz la nivel microeconomic. Prosperitatea sustenabil este creata de ctre firme. In consecin, calitatea mediului de afaceri este un factor fundamental. Factorii care determin nivelul productivittii sunt multipli; critici cei care se refer la stimularea investiiilor, nivelul concurenial i capacitatea de a inova.

[1] Diverse alte accepiuni nivel redus al costului fortei de munca, fiscalitate sczut, deprecierea monedei nationale, exporturi crescute sau resurse naturale abundente sunt, fie rezultante ale unei competitivitti crescute, fie eventuale stadii ale (sub)dezvoltrii competitive, fr a fi factori sau nici mcar conditii necesare. Unele reprezint, chiar, elemente putin dezirabile din punct de vedere competitiv.

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Competitivitate - productivitate

Cuantificarea obiectivului POS de competitivitate se poate realiza n termeni de cretere a productivittii muncii, calculat ca evoluie a PIB pe persoan ocupat.

Cresterea productivitatii muncii pe persoana ocupata poate fi aproximata si ca:

% productivitatea muncii= %GDP real - %populatie ocupata

unde :

% reprezinta cresterea procentuala

Creterea productivitii muncii pe persoan ocupat poate fi descompus teoretic in contribuia a doi factori: contribuia creterii capitalului pe persoan ocupat i cea a modificrii rezidualului Solow, numit i productivitatea total a factorilor. Productivitatea total a factorilor suprinde contribuia altor factori dect capitalul i fora de munc la creterea PIB-ului pe persoan ocupat.

Creterea PIB pe persoan ocupat este un indicator larg folosit n practica internaional.

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Diamantul competitiv - Michael E. Porter - include patru factori principali, influentati in ansamblul lor de actiunea guvernamentala - aspectele

privind factorii de productie; aspecte privind cererea; industrii conexe sau complementare; strategia, structura i concurenta intre firme.

Factorii de producie: avantajul competitiv se construiete nu pe factorii mosteniti, ci pe cei creati prin investitii consistente si care sunt specializati.

Cererea interna: caracteristicile cererii interne au un efect foarte semnificativ asupra strategiei firmelor nationale, prin gusturi, sofisticare, demensiune si, in consecinta, prin presiunea indusa asupra costurilor, a inovatiei si a calitatii.

Industrii conexe sau complementare: o conditie a succesului intr-un domeniu o reprezinta existenta unor industrii conexe competitive la nivel international; un domeniu nu poate excela izolat de restul retelei economice pe care se sprijina performana sa de ansamblu;

Strategia, structura si concurenta intre firme: diferitele metode de management, orizontul de performanta investitionala, dimensiunile firmelor, tipul de pozitionare pe piata sunt elemente care pot sustine sau nu o prezenta competitiva in diverse industrii sau segmente de piata.

Toate cele patru elemente trebuie privite in strns interdependent, avantajul competitiv bazndu-se pe diamant ca sistem, nu ca elemente disparate. Competitivitatea intregului sistem este afectata de orice veriga slaba intre elementele diamantului. Dupa aceast logic este construit si argumentul referitor la cluster-ele economice. Existena unui diamant competitiv duce la crearea unui cluster competitiv international, mai degrab dect a unui succes sustenabil izolat.

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Evaluari ale competitivitatii The microeconomic business environment - the mechanisms of

influence (Porters Model)

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Fazele dezvoltrii competitive

economia bazat pe factori: avantajul competitiv const in costul redus al factorilor de productie;

companiile au un rol redus in realizarea valorii adaugate si se bazeaza pe forta de

munca ieftina;

tehnologia este asimilata prin importuri si investitii straine directe;

economia bazat pe investitii: avantajul competitiv consta in capacitatea de a produce bunuri si servicii de calitate, prin metode eficiente, dar cu salarii mai reduse;

diamantul national sustine deja investitii majore in infrastructura si modernizarea

proceselor tehnologice;

tehnologia este asimilata prin licentiere, joint ventures, investitii straine si creatie

proprie;

economia bazat pe inovare: avantajul competitiv consta in crearea de bunuri si servicii inovative pe plan international;

strategiile competitive ale companiilor sunt globale, iar diamantul national este

competitiv in toate domeniile.

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Romania Program Operational Sectorial (POS) Cresterea Competitivitatii Economice

Economia Romniei are un nivel de competitivitate mult sub media UE-15, avnd de recuperat decalaje semnificative in ceea ce privete societatea bazata pe cunoatere.

Obiectivul general al POS CCE este cresterea productivitatii intreprinderilor romanesti si reducerea decalajelor fata de productivitatea medie la nivelul UE. Tinta este o crestere medie anuala a PIB pe angajat de cca. 5,5 %. Aceasta va permite Romaniei sa atinga un nivel de aproximativ 55% din productivitatea medie a UE pana in anul 2015.

Consolidarea si dezvoltarea sectorului productiv din Romania

Constituirea unui mediu favorabil dezvoltarii intreprinderilor

Cresterea capacitatii de cercetare si dezvoltare (C&D) si stimularea cooperarii intre institutii de CDI si sectorul productiv

Valorificarea potentialului TIC si aplicarea acestuia in sectorul public (administratie) si cel privat (cetateni, intreprinderi)

Cresterea eficientei energetice si dezvoltarea durabila a sistemului energetic, promovarea surselor regenerabile de energie

Promovarea potentialului turismului romanesc

Obiective specifice: Creterea contribuiei IMM la PIB cu 20% in 2015.

Creterea valorii cheltuielilor totale de C-D (GERD) pn la 3% din PIB n 2015.

Creterea penetrrii serviciilor de Internet (ntreprinderi/ populaie) de la 52% / 19% in 2004 la 70%/ 55% in 2015.

Reducerea intensitii energetice primare cu 40 % pn in anul 2015, comparativ cu 2001.

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Axele prioritare si obiectivele acestora

1: Un sistem inovativ de productie

a) Eficientizarea echipamentelor de productie, bazata pe extinderea si modernizarea lor, innoirea proceselor de productie si sprijinirea adoptarii standardelor internationale care conduc la diversificarea gamei de produse.

b) Imbunatatirea serviciilor de consultanta specializate si sprijinirea internationalizarii in scopul cresterii cotei de piata.

c) Realizarea unui mediu favorabil pentru intreprinzatori prin asigurarea accesului la finantare, crearea unor instrumente financiare inovative, facilitarea accesului la infrastructura si servicii pentru afaceri.

2: Cercetare, dezvoltarea tehnologica si inovarea pentru competitivitate

a) Sprijinirea modernizarii si dezvoltarii capacitatii si infrastructurii de CDI, dezvoltarea calitatii si a gamei de produse si servicii inovative, stimularea cererii potentiale de inovare din partea sectorului productiv.

3: Tehnologia informatiei si comunicatiilor (TIC) pentru sectoarele privat si public

a) Imbunatatirea infrastructurii TIC, in special in zonele de esec ale pietei; b) Promovarea introducerii unui sistem inovativ de productie in administratie si sectorul public; c) Dezvoltarea pietei pentru o noua generatie de produse si servicii de conectare, sprijin pentru infiintarea de portaluri, construirea sistemelor integrate de informatii pentru dezvoltarea GIS bazate pe interoperabilitate si dezvoltarea serviciilor e-Business.

4: Cresterea eficientei energetice si dezvoltarea durabila a sistemului energetic

a) Cresterea eficientei energetice; b) Cresterea utilizarii resurselor energetice regenerabile; c) Reducerea impactului sectorului energetic asupra mediului.

5: Romania, destinatie atractiva pentru turism si afaceri - a) Imbunatatirea imaginii Romaniei ca destinatie turistica in scopul cresterii atractivitatii nu numai pentru turisti dar si pentru afaceri si crearea unui sistem integrat pentru oferta romaneasca de turism.

6: Asistenta tehnica - a) Asigurarea sprijinului pentru procesul de implementare a programului si utilizare efectiva a resurselor financiare comunitare si a cofinantarii nationale. Fiecare axa prioritara contine domenii majore de interventie, care la randul lor se

bazeaza pe operatiuni care permit indeplinirea obiectivelor axei prioritare respective.

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Prioritatea I

Creterea competitivitatii prin imbunttirea accesului pe piaa al intreprinderilor, in special al celor mici i mijlocii

Sustinerea investitiilor productive si pregatirea intreprinderilor romanesti pentru concurenta pe piata interna europeana

Dezvoltarea accesului la finanare al ntreprinderilor, n special al IMM

Dezvoltarea infrastructurii de afaceri si a serviciilor de consultanta pentru afaceri

Cresterea accesului pe piete externe si sprijinirea eforturilor de internationalizare ale intreprinderilor, in special ale IMM

Promovarea potentialului turistic romanesc - factor de imbunatatire a imaginii Romaniei ca destinatie turistica si de antrenare a cresterii competitivitatii economice

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Prioritatea II

Dezvoltarea economiei bazate pe cunoatere, prin promovarea cercetarii i inovrii i accelerarea dezvoltarii societatii informationale

Sprijinirea aplicarii CDI in sectorul productiv si cresterea diseminarii in domeniul inovarii si marketingului

Stimularea investitiilor in infrastructura CDI

Consolidarea cooperarii in domeniul cercetarii intre universitati, institutii de cercetare si industrie

Sustinerea utilizarii tehnologiei informatiei

Dezvoltarea si eficientizarea serviciilor publice electronice moderne (e-Guvernare, e-Educatie si e-Sanatate)

Promovarea e-business

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PRIORITATEA II: Dezvoltarea economiei bazate pe cunoastere, prin promovarea cercetarii si inovarii si accelerarea dezvoltarii societatii informationale

sprijinirea CDI si a societatii informationale nu reprezinta doar un deziderat ci si o conditie sine-qua-non pentru dezvoltarea Romaniei in conditiile concurentiale impuse de procesul de globalizare cu toate ca obiectivele

stabilite la Lisabona in 2000 s-au dovedit a fi prea ambitioase chiar pentru tarile dezvoltate ale UE.La nivelul

tarilor OECD s-a constatat ca domeniul TIC contribuie semnificativ la cresterea economica, atat prin industria

conexa cat si prin ramurile care utilizeaza tehnologia informatiilor. Desi Romania a micsorat in ultimii ani

decalajele privind implementarea societatii informationale prin dezvoltarea industriei TIC, a infrastructurii

(hardware, software, miloace de comunicatii) si a aplicatiilor si serviciilor specifice, penetrarea tehnologiei

informatiei si comunicatiilor are un nivel destul de redus.

Sprijinirea aplicarii CDI in sectorul productiv si cresterea diseminarii in domeniul inovarii si marketingului -

Indicatori de decalaj:

Vanzarea de produse noi la nivelul firmei, dar nu si la nivelul pietei (% din cifra de afaceri) (decalaj -4,2)

Capacitatea de inovare (decalaj de 1,0)

Vanzarea de produse noi la nivelul pietei (% din cifra de afaceri) (decalaj de 2,1)

Existenta serviciilor de cercetare si de pregatire profesionala specifica (decalaj de -0,9)

Indicator compozit - Capacitatea de diseminare si exploatare a inovatiilor[1] (decalaj de 1,8)

[1] acest indicator compozit este obtinut ca medie a celor 4 indicatori: EPO (UE) aplicatii patentate (per 1 mil/loc) (decalaj: -2,6),

USPTO (USA) aplicatii patentate (per 1 mil/loc) (decalaj: -1,9), nivelul de utilizare al propriilor marci patentate (decalaj 1,2),

protejarea proprietatii intelectuale (decalaj:-1,5).

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Tema de discutie: Banca Mondial a pus punctul pe 3 "i": INOVARE, INCLUZIUNE I INTEGRARE - Afacerile de tranziie din Romnia, caracterizate prin "nvare i experimentare"

In perioada de tranziie, mediul de afaceri din Romnia a fost orientat ctre experimentare i nvare, iar elementele ce au impulsionat competitivitatea au fost reprezentate de intrrile i ieirile de firme de pe pia, potrivit unui studiu eliberat de Banca Mondial (BM). Sursa: Curierul National, Anul 13, nr. 5203. Joi, 03 Iulie 2008

Oficialii BM au dat publicitii, la data de 2 iunie 2008, un studiu intitulat "Inovare, incluziune i integrare: De la tranziie la convergen n Europa Rsritean i fosta Uniune Sovietic", ce include concluziile Bncii Mondiale referitoare la perioada de tranziie a rilor din Europa de Est i fostul bloc sovietic, precum i sugestii legate de msurile ce vor trebui s fie luate de aceste state odat cu finalizarea procesului de tranziie. Printre concluziile la care au ajuns analitii BM se numr creterea productivitii, considerat ca fiind singura cale viabil ctre o prosperitate de durat, existena "n aspecte fundamentale ale mediului de afaceri precum concurena i finanarea, care determin comportamentul firmelor" a unui proces de maturizare i convergen n direcia celor existente n economiile de pia dezvoltate din Europa Occidental, precum i creterea slab a ocuprii pretutindeni, reflectnd interaciunea dintre creterea numrului de locuri de munc n noile firme private care au putut ocupa nie de pia inexistente n economia centralizat planificat, i reducerea acestuia n ntreprinderile de stat i privatizate. O idee final la care a ajuns Banca Mondial susine faptul c "rile din Europa Rsritean i fosta Uniune Sovietic se confrunt acum cu o a treia tranziie - mbtrnirea populaiei lor, care va ncetini ritmul creterii economice dac numrul participanilor la fora de munc nu se va mri, dac resursele nu vor fi mai eficient utilizate i dac sistemele de pensii i sntate nu vor fi reformate pentru a nu deveni surse de acute presiuni fiscale".

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Tema de discutie: Afacerile de tranziie din Romnia, caracterizate prin "nvare i experimentare (cont.)

Analitii Bncii Mondiale au sesizat "productivitatea sczut a firmelor nou intrate pe pia n Ungaria i Romnia, comparativ cu cele deja existente". Mai mult dect att, aceasta este urmat de "o inversare a situaiei n circa doi ani de la nceperea activitii", fapt ce "poate semnala un mediu de afaceri orientat ctre nvare i experimentare.

In cazul Romniei, datele incluse n raportul BM arat c n primul an de la nceperea activitii firmele aveau o pierdere de productivitate de peste 30%, pentru ca n doi ani de la intrarea pe pia s obin un ctig de circa 20%. Conform statisticilor, profitul se meninea relativ constant nc doi ani, pentru ca ulterior, la apte ani de la intrarea pe pia, companiile s aib un ctig de productivitate cu puin peste 10%. Rata de supravieuire a noilor afaceri depea 80% pentru primii doi ani, pentru a ajunge la circa 70% n primii patru ani de la intrarea pe piaa din Romnia a unei firme. Acelai raport arat c firmele cu "via" de 7 ani aveau cota de supravieuire de doar aproximativ 60% (raportul "Inovaie, incluziune i inovare" vizeaz perioada 1993-2005).

Firmele au fost forate s gseasc metode de supravieuire. n sprijinul ideilor menionate anterior, studiul efectuat de Banca Mondial, "Inovare, incluziune i integrare: De la tranziie la convergen n Europa Rsritean i fosta Uniune Sovietic", subliniaz faptul c "n Romnia i Ucraina, ratele de supravieuire pentru primii patru ani erau relativ asemntoare, de circa 70%. Nou intraii erau cu aproximativ 30% mai puin productivi n Romnia, comparativ cu firmele existente, n timp ce n Ucraina erau cu 30% mai productivi". Raportul BM arat c n timpul procesului de tranziie de la o economie centralizat la una de pia, companiile au fost forate s gseasc diverse metode noi de a rezista pe pia. n cazul celor ce nu au reuit s se adapteze n perioada menionat au ieit de pe pia, pe cnd firmele care au continuat activitatea au identificat noi metode de supravieuire, un exemplu elocvent fiind realocarea resurselor. Astfel, ideea c intrrile i ieirile de pe pia au contribuit, n statele din regiune, la creterea competitivitii mediului de afaceri devine perfect valabil.

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Tema de discutie: Afacerile de tranziie din Romnia, caracterizate prin "nvare i experimentare (cont.)

Intrrile i ieirile de firme au sporit productivitatea i au creat locuri de munc

n ara noastr, aceste ieiri i intrri de firme au avut un aport de peste 15% la sporirea productivitii, numai n intervalul 1992-1997. ns n cazul n care considerm perioada 2000-2005, ctigul de productivitate generat de micrile firmelor a fost mai sczut, pstrndu-se cu toate acestea peste procentul 10%. Acest fenomen al intrrilor i al ieirilor de firme a avut i un alt aport, anume crearea de locuri de munc. Astfel, la nceputul perioadei de tranziie, contribuia acestora a fost de 70-90% n Ungaria i Romnia, 60-80% n Slovenia i Ucraina, pe cnd n Rusia a atins doar procentul de 50-70%. Cu toate acestea, dup trecerea unei perioade mai ndelungate de timp, ponderea a sczut la 20-25% n Ungaria, Romnia i Slovenia. Astfel, este perfect vizibil c firmele care au gsit soluiile necesare pentru supravieuire i i-au continuat activitatea au nfiinat cea mai mare parte a locurilor de munc.

Problema demografic

n ceea ce privete evoluia populaiei, Banca Mondial prognozeaz o scdere de peste 10% pn n 2025, comparativ cu anul 2000. Cele mai accentuate scderi ale populaiei ar urma s se nregistreze n Ucraina, Bulgaria i Georgia. Mai mult, Pradeep Mitra, economist-ef pentru Regiunea Europa i Asia Central din Banca Mondial i autor al raportului, a subliniat referitor la aceast chestiune c "provocarea pe care mbtrnirea rapid a populaiei, ntr-un mare numr de ri n tranziie din Europa Central i de Sud-Est, precum i n Rusia, Ucraina i Belarus, o reprezint pentru creterea economic este serioas i sistemic".

Tema de discutie: Creterea economic n rile UE11 ("EU11 Regular Economic Report Banca Mondial)

Creterea economic nregistrat la nivelul statelor UE11 (Bulgaria, Cehia, Estonia, Letonia, Lituania,

Polonia, Romnia, Slovacia, Slovenia i Ungaria i Croaia) din regiune a sczut n anul 2012 i se

va menine la nivele sczute i n anul 2013 pe fondul continurii recesiunii manifestate n zona

Euro care erodeaz cererea la nivel intern; cererea la nivel intern, n special investiiile, s-au

contractat n majoritatea rilor, consecina fiind aceea c exporturile nete au reprezentat singurul

factor de cretere n regiunea UE11.

Activitatea economic slab la nivelul rilor UE11 a avut drept consecin pierderea unor locuri de

munc. Incertitudinea prelungit, restructurrile la nivel de organizaii precum i recesiunea

nregistrat n unele ri UE11 au condus la creteri ale valorilor omajului n toat aceast regiune.

Chiar i n situaia n care exporturile nete au sprijinit creterea economic din 2012, raportul observ

c performanele comerciale n UE11 au fost dezamgitoare. Att exporturile ct i importurile

au nregistrat o frnare, n condiiile n care comerul mondial a staionat din cauza creterii

economice lente n rile cu venituri mari, precum i din cauza perioadelor recurente de

nencredere n viitorul monedei Euro.

Fluxurile de investiii strine directe nete (FDI) ctre rile UE11 au rmas stabile, iar datoria

extern brut a crescut doar cu valori modeste datorit mprumuturilor suverane. Raportul dintre

datoria public i PIB a nregistrat i el o cretere uoar la nivelul anului 2012, pe fondul unor

consolidri fiscale mai sczute dect cele planificate.

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Convergenta veniturilor (Regular Economic Report: Coping with External Headwinds Special Topic: Drivers of Convergence in EU11, World Bank, June 2012)

Pornind de la 144 de scenarii privind schimbrile

tehnologice i acumularea de capital uman i fizic

considerate cu probabilitate egal, experii Bncii

Mondiale conchid c probabilitatea ca EU11 s ajung

la convergen venitului mediu per capita cu EU15 este

foarte mare, ns procesul de convergen total va avea

nevoie de cteva decenii. Grupul UE11 include Bulgaria, Cehia, Estonia, Letonia, Lituania,

Polonia, Romnia, Slovacia, Slovenia i Ungaria i Croaia.

Grupul UE15 include: Austria, Belgia, Danemarca, Finlanda, Frana,

Germania, Grecia, Irlanda, Italia, Luxemburg, Olanda,

Portugalia, Regatul Unit al Marii Britanii, Spania, i Suedia.

Banca Mondial, instituie care se ocup cu precdere de

tendinele economice calitative, nu de cele strict cantitative,

cere msuri de contracarare a celui mai nelinititor fenomen

adus de criz: dup ce standardele de via n Europa

ncepuser s se armonizeze n deceniul trecut, decalajele

de calitate a dezvoltrii (deci nu de cretere economic)

dintre UE15 i nou-venitele din Est s-au accentuat din nou

i se vor accentua pe mai departe, urmnd ca revenirea la

convergen, cel puin din punctul de vedere al veniturilor

pe cap de locuitor, s devin vizibil abia prin 2050.

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Distribuia raportului ntre venituri

Convergena n distribuia veniturilor

Trile din UE11 ca grup sunt cu mult n urma UE15 la

indicatorii legai de inovaie i de calitatea educaiei, rata

emigrrii n rndul populaiei cu educaie teriar este

printre cele mai mari n Est, regiune incapabil s atrag ea

nsi din alte pri imigrani cu calificri nalte, iar

emigraia total ar urma s duc la o pierdere total de for

de munc de cca 19% n UE11 n perioada 2010-2050.

Multinaionalele i firmele cu capital strin le depesc

sistematic pe cele locale la productivitate i inovaie,

ntruct atrag cu uurin fora de munc de cea mai bun

calitate i cumpr cele mai productive firme locale.

Li se recomand noilor state membre s flexibilizeze i mai

mult piaa muncii, pentru a facilita creterea ocuprii i

mobilitatea forei de munc, s investeasc n educaie

prin programe care s faciliteze crearea de noi locuri de

munc, s investeasc pentru ameliorarea calitii i

atragerea mai multor tineri pentru nvmntul

superior, s transforme fenomenul de brain drain

(emigrarea celor calificai) n brain rental (nchirierea de

competene din strintate i gsirea de stimulente pentru

readucerea specialistilor nalt calificai).

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Evaluari ale societatii/economiei bazate pe cunoastere in viziunea Bancii Mondiale

Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM) este un instrument interactiv al Bancii Mondiale care permite evaluarea avansului catre cunoastere ale diferitelor economii si societati din 146 de state/regiuni/grupuri de tari din lume.

Este utila in evaluarea factorilor probelematici si in evidentierea oportunitatilor neexplorate pe numeroase aspecte care configureaza succesul unor economii nationale in exploatarea noilor tehnologii si a cunoasterii: INTERNET si aplicatii web, telefonie mobila, creare de valoare adaugata in productie

K4D - Knowledge for Development Program - Programul Cunoastere pentru dezvoltare aplicarea cunoasterii, manifestata in asociere cu

antreprenoriatul si inovarea, C&D, proiectarea de noi produse reprezinta factori cheie de crestere economica intr-o lume tot mai globalizata. Totusi, deoarece in statele in dezvoltare aceste resurse nu isi ating potentialul de valorificare, trebuie incurajate transferurile si fluxurile de cunoastere intre diferite antitati si incurajate mecanismele de colaborare.

Surse:

The Knowledge Economy, the KAM Methodology and World Bank Operations, Derek H. C. Chen, Carl J. Dahlman, The World Bank, Washington DC 20433, October 19, 2005

Measuring knowledge in the worlds economies, Knowledge Assessment Methodology and Knowledge Economy Index

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Economia cunoasterii si performanta economica

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Cunoasterea diferentiaza

Inovarea este unul dintre principalii factori care conduc la bunstare economic.

n Comunicarea Comisiei Europene privind Politica Inovrii, inovarea este definit pe larg ca producerea, asimilarea sau exploatarea cu succes a noutilor n sfera economic i social.

Conform legistaiei romne, inovarea este definit c activitatea orientat ctre generarea, asimilarea i valorificarea rezultatelor cercetrii-dezvoltrii n sfera economic i social.

Evaluari ale Bancii Mondale:

diferitele traiectorii de dezvoltare pentru Coreea si Mexic

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Raportul asupra competitivitatii in lume in viziunea Forumului

Economic Mondial (WEF - World Economic Forum)

WEF Global Competitiveness Report editia 2013-

2014

http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-

competitiveness-report-2013-2014

Scorul general obtinut de Romania este de 4,13 puncte (in crestere fata de 4,07 puncte

anul trecut) pe o scala de la unu la sapte. In topul celor mai competitive state din

lume, Elvetia si-a pastrat pozitia de lider mondial pentru al cincilea an consecutiv

(cu un scor de 5,67 de puncte), urmata de Singapore si Finlanda. Germania a urcat

pe locul patru devansand SUA.

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Evaluari ale competitivitatii WEF

Sursa: The Global Competitiveness Report 2014-2015,

World Economic Forum; autori: Klaus Schwab, Xavier Sala-i-Martn

Competitiveness is defined as the set of institutions, policies,

and factors that determine the level of productivity of a country;

Productivity of an economy

-is measured by the value of goods and services produced per unit of

the nations human, capital, and natural resources.

-depends both on the value of a nations products and services,

measured by the prices they can command in open markets,

and the efficiency with which they can be produced.

The level of productivity sets the sustainable level of prosperity that can be earned by an economy;

more competitive economies tend to be able to produce higher levels of income for their citizens.

- determines the rates of return obtained by investments in an economy.

Wealth is actually created by the productivity with which a nation can utilize its human, capital, and

natural resources to produce goods and services. Productivity ultimately depends on the microeconomic

capability of the economy, rooted in the sophistication of companies (both local and subsidiaries of

multinationals), the quality of the national business environment, and the externalities arising from the

presence of clusters of related and supporting industries. Unless microeconomic capabilities improve,

sustainable improvements in prosperity will not occur.

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WEF 2014-2015

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WEF GCR - Lectii despre competitivitate

World Economic Forum (WEF) i-a bazat analiza competitivitii pe Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) care surprinde fundamentele microeconomice i macroeconomice ale competitivitii naionale.

Global Competitiveness Report definete competitivitatea ca fiind un set de instituii, politici i factori ce determina nivelul de productivitate a unei ri.

Productivitatea determin nivelul de prosperitate ce poate fi atins de o economie. Economitii au studiat toi factorii ce pot fi considerai determinani ai competitivitii; i grupeaz n 12 piloni ai competitivitii.

Principalele bariere pentru imbuntirea climatului de afaceri din Romnia l constituie nivelul fiscalitii i legislaia fiscal.

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29

Componente ale indicatorului GCI Aceti piloni afecteaz fiecare ar n mod diferit n funcie de stadiul

de dezvoltare n care se afl.

Astfel, n primul stadiu de dezvoltare economic, bazat pe factori,

meninerea competitivitii se bazeaz n primul rnd pe buna

funcionare a instituiilor publice i private (pilon 1), pe

dezvoltarea infrastructurii (pilon 2), n cadrul macroeconomic

stabil i pe sntate i nvmnt uman (pilon 4).

Pe msura ce salariile cresc datorit avansrii dezvoltrii rile trec

printr-un alt stadiu de dezvoltare economic , bazat pe eficien,

n care trebuie s se dezvolte mai eficient procesul de producie i

cretere a productivitii. n aceast situaie. competitivitatea se

bazeaz pe urmtorii poteniatori de eficient: nvmnt

superior i formare profesional (pilon 5), eficiena pieelor

bunurilor (pilon 6), eficiena pieei forei de munc (pilon 7),

complexitatea pieei financiare (pilon 8), abilitatea de a exploata

beneficiile tehnologiilor existente precum i dimensiunea pieei.

Ultimul stadiu de dezvoltare economic este cel bazat pe inovare, n

care rile sunt capabile s susin salarii mari i standarde de

via ridicate. Conceptul de stadiu de dezvoltare este integrat n

Index atribuind valori relative acelor piloni care sunt relevani

pentru o ar i sunt dai de stadiul de dezvoltare al acesteia.

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Evaluari ale competitivitatii WEF The major determinants for competitiveness (12 dimensions)

Subindex weights and income thresholds for stages of development

The concept of competitiveness

involves static and dynamic

components.

Although the productivity of a country

determines its ability to sustain a high

level of income, it is also one of the

central determinants of its returns on

investment, which is one of the key

factors explaining an economys

growth potential.

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Criteriile de ncadrare utilizate sunt nivelul PIB pe locuitor i ponderile pe care resursele, eficiena i inovarea le au n cadrul rezultatelor

economice.

n prima parte a procesului de cretere economic eficiena preia treptat rolul resurselor i inovaia rmne

marginal. De la un anumit punct ncolo, eficiena nu mai poate determina dect jumtate din evoluia

economic i cea care preia tot mai mult din ponderea resurselor primare este inovarea, care trebuie s ajung

s devin mai important dect acestea.

Romnia se afl n al doilea stadiu de dezvoltare nu att din motive de eficien ct

din faptul c nu a mutat la un nivel semnificativ accentul dinspre resurse spre

inovare: toi pilonii conteaz, dar importana lor relativ depinde de stadiul de

dezvoltare.

Romnia se regsete pe locul 76 din 148 n topul mondial al competitivitii, mai sus

cu dou poziii fa anul trecut (78 in editia 2012-2-13). Combinaia care a dat, pe

total, locul 76 este reprezentat de plasarea din punct de vedere al resurselor pe

locul 87, al eficienei pe locul 63 i al inovrii pe locul 103. Prin urmare, contrar

clieelor vehiculate ne penalizeaz nu doar inovarea dar i resursele primare.

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BASIC REQUIREMENTS

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EFFICIENCY ENHANCERS

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INNOVATION AND SOPHISTICATION FACTORS

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The Global Competitiveness Index 20142014 rankings and comparison with last year

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The EUs Regional Competitiveness Index (RCI) The regional dimension is important because many of the factors of competitiveness are influenced or even determined by regional

and city authorities. The trend toward more decentralization in Europe makes the role of cities and regions even more

important. The strong regional dimension of competitiveness, with more variation between regions than between countries, confirms

the influence and role of regions and cities. The RCI highlights the competitive strengths and weaknesses of each of the

European Union (EU)s regions. This is particularly important for the preparation of the EU Cohesion Policy programs for 2014

20.

The European Union will provide 325 billion euros to co-finance these seven-year programs. The programs are implemented by the

countries, regions, or cities following an agreed strategy. These programs can improve transport or Internet access, boost innovation,

encourage entrepreneurship, invest in energy efficiency, and enhance education and skills.

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The European Unions Regional Competitiveness Index (RCI) 2013-2014

The objective of the Cohesion Policy is to reduce regional disparities by

investing in job creation, competitiveness, economic growth, improved

quality of life and sustainable development. Funding is provided to all

regions, but more is provided to less developed ones. These

investments also support the Europe 2020 strategy.

The RCI is useful tool for EU countries with a large gap in

the competitiveness of their regions. EU countries with a

large gap or high variation in regional competitiveness

should consider to what extent these gaps are harmful for

their national competitiveness and whether they can be

reduced, possibly with the support of Cohesion Policy.

For example, in Romania, the Slovak Republic, and France the gap between the capital region and the second

most competitive region is very wide, while regional

competitiveness in Germany shows no large differences.

The RCI shows a more polycentric pattern, with strong

capital and metropolitan regions in many parts of Europe. For example, the regions that include Stockholm, Copenhagen, Helsinki,

Prague, Bratislava, and Madrid all have a high level of

competitiveness. Some regions that are, unfortunately,

consistently the least competitive. These are the Bulgarian

region Severozapaden, the Greek region Notio Aigaio, and

the two southern Romanian regions Sud-Est and Sud-

Vest Oltenia.

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Romania profil de competitivitate

Instituiile, infrastructura, eficiena pieei i sofisticarea afacerilor se afl peste pozitia 100, context

n care stabilitatea macro constituie deja o performan major. n acord cu instituiile slabe care

ncurc educarea bun, sntatea i educaia primar coboar pe un loc mediu ntre cele

dou categorii amintite (locul 84), iar inovarea se plaseaza pe 97. Oarecum paradoxal, capacitatea

de a implementa tehnologii moderne avem (locul 54), iar educaia de tip universitar i formarea

profesional (59), dei sub cerine i potenial, sunt destul de bune.

Recomandrile pentru elaborarea politicilor de mbuntire a competitivitii: utilizarea fondurilor europene pentru dezvoltarea infrastructurii, dublat de parteneriate public-private, precum i impunerea cerinei de realizare a

analizelor de impact pe care proiectele de noi politici sau reglementri l au asupra creterii sustenabile i stabilitii

mediului de afaceri. Este necesar dezvoltarea unui plan amplu i coordonat de mbuntire a infrastructurii Romniei

pentru atingerea standardelor Uniunii Europene de calitate i acoperire, precum i dezvoltarea unei strategii energetice

clare i creterea transparenei i responsabilitii n administraia public i n utilizarea fondurilor publice.

Raportul de Competitivitate recomand, totodat, mbuntirea structurii i eficienei cheltuielilor guvernamentale, oferirea de stimulente pentru a menine n ar specialitii de nalt calificare i a inversa exodul acestora, dup

modelul experienei pozitive nregistrat n sectorul IT, reformarea profund a administraiei fiscale, stimularea

investiiilor i dezvoltarea pieelor de capital pentru clienii publici privai

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Romania in the 2014-2015 WEF GCI report

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Romania - The most problematic factors for doing business

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IMD WORLD COMPETITIVENESS YEARBOOK - Anuarul competitivitatii

globale 2014 http://www.imd.org/

The fundamentals on IMDs competitiveness

Competitiveness analyzes how nations and enterprises

manage the totality of their competencies to achieve

prosperity or profit.

Competitiveness of Nations is a field of Economic

theory, which analyses the facts and policies that

shape the ability of a nation to create and maintain

an environment that sustains more value creation

for its enterprises and more prosperity for its

people.

Is one of the most powerful concepts in modern economic

thinking. One of its key contributions to classical

economic theories is that competitiveness encompasses

the economic consequences of non-economic issues,

such as education, sciences, political stability or value

systems. It is precisely because it is a multifaceted

concept that it has lead to a proliferation of definitions.

The World Competitiveness Yearbook (WCY) looks at the

relationship between a countrys national environment

(where the State plays a key role) and the wealth creation

process (assumed by enterprises and individuals). The

WCY focuses on the outcome of the interaction of four

competitiveness factors, which generally define a

countrys national environment: Economic Performance,

Government Efficiency, Business Efficiency and

Infrastructure.

44

4 dimensions shape the countrys competitiveness

environment. They are the result of tradition, history

or value systems and are so deeply rooted in the

modus operandi of a country that, in most cases, they

are not clearly stated or defined. Countries manage

their environment according to 4 fundamental forces:

Attractiveness vs. Aggressiveness

Proximity vs. Globality

Assets vs. Processes

Individual Risk Taking vs. Social Cohesiveness.

The concept of competitiveness - four levels: Efficiency, Choice, Resources and Objectives

is primarily understood as being better than others. Productivity is thus a key determinant to such efficiency. also implies a strategic choice in identifying those domains where an activity represents a unique added value. The theory of comparative advantage (David Ricardo, 1819) analyses such dilemmas. Competitiveness means making

choices about where the potential added value in international markets is bigger than that of competitors.

entails the mobilization of a variety of resources to implement such choices. These resources are drawn from government, infrastructure, technology,

finance, education, etc. This is a wide-angle approach to economics. Countries compete internationally to have access to and to manage these resources. The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook can be described as a

mapping process that helps countries benchmark their competitiveness by mobilizing such resources.

a) Companies focus on sustained profitability, which is the ability to generate an appropriate return on capital over a

long period of time. This concept is well-covered by economic analysis and is explained by the field of

competitive strategy.

b) Nations thrive on prosperity, a concept that we define as economic growth plus something else that is less

economic and measurable. The latter goal evolves with the economic and social development of a country: a

poorer nation may emphasize access to food and shelter for its population, a more advanced economy may give

priority to environmental protection or education. In both cases however, economic growth remains a

prerequisite, a condition that is necessary but not sufficient.

c) Individuals are motivated by increases in their standard of living and probably by something more ideological

such as the pursuit of happiness as described in the US Declaration of Independence (1776). Several models

attempt to include such concepts in economic analysis (for example, the Commission on the Measurement of

Economic Performance and Social Progress sponsored by the French state and which includes Nobel laureates

Joseph Stiglitz and Amartya Sen.) 16/10/2014 45 MAPP - MTT - 2014-2015

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Cultural Impacts on Competitiveness - nations do not compete with products and services alone, but also with education and

value systems.

1. Value systems evolve - four distinct phases: Hard work: people are totally dedicated to the countrys corporate

objectives and work many hours (for example, Korea).

Wealth: although people still work hard, they pay more

attention to increasing their own incomes (for example, Singapore).

Social participation: people are less interested in hard work,

and are more involved in shaping their society (for example, the US and Europe in the late 1960s).

Self-achievement: people are more interested in developing

their private lives, rather than pursuing societal change (for example, the US and Europe today).

2. Value systems imply different behavioral models - Three different models of society:

1) The South European Model is characterized by little

infrastructure, business regulations, and social protection, a

parallel economy, and low labor costs. It favors inventiveness.

2) The North European Model - a strong emphasis on stability,

social consensus and regulations. It favors a long-term

perspective.

3) The Anglo-Saxon Model - deregulation, privatization, labor

flexibility and a higher acceptance of risk. It fosters

entrepreneurship. Over the past ten years, a shift has occurred from the North European

model to the Anglo-Saxon one. However, striking a balance between a

hyper-competitive global business environment, close to the Anglo-Saxon

model, and a more socially responsible local environment, close to the

North European model, is still a challenge.

The Impact of Technology

During the past two decades, the technological

revolution - computers, telecommunications and

Internet - have had a profound impact on the

competitiveness of nations. Today, infrastructure

cannot only be considered in the traditional terms of

roads, trains, harbor facilities and even airports.

Technological infrastructure is becoming a key asset

for the future competitiveness of a nation.

Technology also impacts education. The new

technological requirements of enterprises have forced

countries to give a priority to technology. Attracting

research centers, and developing cooperation between

local universities and enterprises, is becoming just as

important for the competitiveness of a country as

attracting FDI. The Internet allows companies to

develop e-commerce, e-procurements, auctions, and e-

marketplaces across borders. This pushes countries to

develop an advanced technological infrastructure.

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World Competitiveness Yearbook - methodology

The World Competitiveness Yearbook (WCY) ranks and analyzes the ability of nations to create and maintain an

environment in which enterprises can compete. It means that we assume that wealth creation takes place primarily

at enterprise level (whether private or state owned) - this field of research is called: "competitiveness of

enterprises. However, enterprises operate in a national environment which enhances or hinders their ability to

compete domestically or internationally - this field of research is called: "competitiveness of nations" and is

covered by the WCY.

Based on analysis made by leading scholars and by our own research and experience, the methodology of the WCY

thus divides the national environment into four main factors: Economic Performance, Government Efficiency,

Business Efficiency and Infrastructure. In turn, each of these factors is divided into 5 sub-factors which highlight

every facet of the areas analyzed.

Altogether, the WCY features 20 such sub-factors. These 20 sub-factors comprise more than 300 criteria, although

each sub-factor does not necessarily have the same number of criteria (for example, it takes more criteria to assess

Education than to evaluate Prices). Each sub-factor, independently of the number of criteria it contains, has the

same weight in the overall consolidation of results, which is 5% (20x5 =100).

Criteria can be hard data, which analyzes competitiveness as it can be measured (e.g. GDP) or soft data, which

analyzes competitiveness as it can be perceived (e.g. Availability of competent managers). Hard criteria represent

a weight of 2/3 in the overall ranking, whereas the survey data represent a weight of 1/3. In addition, some criteria

are for background information only, which means that they are not used in calculating the overall competitiveness

ranking (e.g. Population under 15).

Finally, aggregating the results of the 20 sub-factors makes the total consolidation, which leads to the overall ranking

of the WCY.

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The World Competitiveness Scoreboard 2014

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Competitiveness Perspective 1997-2013

56

The vertical axis on the left indicates the 2013 ranking and the name of the country.

The blue 2013 diagonal line from top to bottom indicates the same ranking, which also intersects with the axis below. In addition,

the horizontal axis allows to read the best and worst rankings over time.

Each countrys bar highlights on the left the worst competitiveness ranking and its date and on the right the best ranking and its date.

The length of the bar indicates the spread between the two; a long bar can mean dynamism and/or volatility a shorter bar meaning

stability/and or inertia.

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Tema de discutie: IMD The Competitiveness Roadmap: 2013 2050

The Competitiveness Roadmap is an attempt to describe and assess the main issues that will affect the world

competitiveness landscape over the next four decades. Issues are shown along two axes - degree of impact and

timescale - to provide a clear mental map of the environment in which nations and companies will operate.

Exemple:

1. Budget deficits remain high Despite austerity plans, budget deficits remain high: Country estimates for 2013

range from -9% of the GDP in Japan, to -5.4% in the US and -2.8% in the Euro area. Unpopular spending cuts

will prevail and not only in Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy slowing down economic recovery everywhere.

2. The economy is desynchronized Globalization is still there but the world economy is increasingly fragmented:

some nations continue to struggle with recession e.g. Greece, Portugal others confront robust growth such as

China. Some countries suffer deflation Japan and Switzerland others are threatened by inflation, such as

India, Russia and Turkey.

3. Unemployment becomes massive 25 million people lose their jobs in the OECD region and the average jobless

rate hits 7.7% in the US and 11.9% in Europe. Youth unemployment reaches record highs, above 23% in Europe

and a staggering 52% in Spain.

4. Interest rates remain low Central Banks continue to flood the market with cheap money. Some institutions,

such as the U.S. Fed, include employment levels as a target. Stock exchanges become more attractive for higher

returns.

5. Inflation is back but not everywhere The economic recovery is expected to trigger a rise in commodity

prices and demand. Excess liquidities inherited from the recession could flood the markets. Some governments

even welcome a bit of inflation to boost private consumption and reduce the nominal value of the debt.

6. High volatility of currencies The dollar remains weak and is continually tested by financial markets. The Euro

stabilizes around 1.35 to the dollar as emerging markets cautiously buy Euro bonds to diversify their holdings.

The Chinese Yuan appreciates gradually as the government wants to develop domestic demand.

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IMD The Competitiveness Roadmap: 2013 2050 Exemple (2) 7. Global debt explodes The average G20 government debt increases from 78% of GDP to 100% and above. The US national debt now surpasses $21 trillion. Sub-sovereign debt at regional and city level becomes critical in the US but also in

Spain, and even Germany.

8. Economic nationalism on the rise Trade protectionism increases as it is linked to national stimulus plans (e.g. buy

national clauses). New protectionist measures appear that are linked to financial regulations, environmental standards,

corporate governance, etc.

15. Consumers react differently Industrialized nations are characterized by a replacement economy where purchases

replace existing products while emerging nations are in a first-buy economy stage where purchases introduce new

products into households. In other words, an industrialized economy is defined by I want it versus one defined by I need

it. Slower growth can be expected as saturation threatens replacement economies.

16. Food commodities prices higher Food commodities have seen their prices increase by over 40% since the end of the

recession. Despite a temporary slowdown due to a weaker than expected recovery, prices will remain high. An emerging

middle class is changing its eating habits and greater demand will push prices up again. For example, China is moving

away from a rice-only diet. In a decade it has increased its milk consumption seven-fold, poultry by 60%, beef by 30% and

wheat by 25%.

17. State capitalism is fashionable Governments are moving from being stakeholders to being shareholders of their

economies. State interventions increase and national leaders consider it a priority to defend and develop national

champions. As a consequence, government spending now represents on average 50% of the GDP in advanced economies.

80% of the stock market capitalization in Shanghai is done by state-backed companies.

24. More managers needed everywhere - More managers are required in emerging powers. India, China, Russia, Brazil and

the Gulf region increasingly focus on management and the creation of business schools, beyond science and engineering

education. Strategy, finance and marketing skills are now priorities for ensuring the continuous expansion of local

enterprises in a global environment.

25. A new environmental strategy for companies Climate change and energy security is clearly a priority for public opinion.

Governments and companies enhance their visibility on environmental issues and integrate an environmental dimension

into their strategy. Companies that fail to do so will not attract the best talents in the younger generation, who are very

sensitive to this issue.

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IMD The Competitiveness Roadmap: 2013 2050 Exemple (3)

26. Life sciences and environment attract massive investments - Life sciences, as the population becomes older

(40,000 centenarians in Britain in 2030), and environmental technology, as the world becomes hotter (+ 0.6C

in 20 years), will attract massive investments. Innovation proliferates in these two areas of knowledge.

Wellness, in addition to curing existing diseases, becomes a priority for ageing populations.

27. Intellectual property vs. open systems - The intellectual property debate encapsulates two conceptions of world

business: On the one hand the respect for innovation and invention and on the other hand the thrust for a more

open and collaborative society where information is widely shared. Social network systems flourish and

challenge government-controlled information in some parts of the world.

28. From Service to Re-industrialization Service competitiveness and the ability to integrate and manage a global

business model were at the core of the competitiveness of Europe and the US. However both regions have lost

20% of their industry in 20 years, thus creating a higher level of permanent unemployment. Companies reassess

extreme outsourcing and delocalization. Re-shoring and re-industrialization become an economic and

political priority. There is no competitiveness without a sound manufacturing base.

29. Labor cost differences shrink - The difference in labor costs around the world is drastically reduced as nations

develop. A range from 1 to 20 today is reduced to 1 to 5 as purchasing power around the world converges.

30. Productivity is harmonized worldwide - Productivity is harmonized around world operations as companies

become truly global and widely diffuse the same technology and processes. The value chain is managed at the

global level. The nationality of companies matters less and less. The product made in the world is born!

32. From cheap manpower to cheap brainpower -The world moves from a competitiveness model based on cheap

manpower to one based on cheap brainpower. In total, India, China and Russia have 14 million university

students, as many as the US. These students quickly become young professionals eager for success, who are

relatively affordable and highly motivated. Through technology, these brains can be accessed from all over the

world.

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IMD - The Competitiveness Roadmap 20132050 Exemple (4) 33. Urbanization means congestion - The urbanization of the world economy increases pressure on economic and social

infrastructure (roads, water, hospitals, etc.), the environment and also increases social problems (rural migration to cities).

In 2030, 60% of the world population lives in cities. 40 mega regions account for two third of the worlds GDP and 85% of

the technology. As a drawback, congestion becomes a major issue everywhere.

35. From collective to individual value systems - The value system of societies in Asia gradually evolves from one based on

collective values (such as hard work and national pride) to one based on individual values (such as work-life balance),

much closer to the US and European value systems.

36. A new business model for the poor - A new business model emerges for the worlds poorest (such as in Africa or the

Indian subcontinent). Products are manufactured and sold at a fraction of the price charged elsewhere, and with minimal

functionalities. Examples: the $10 phone, $100 PC or $2,500 motor vehicle and services such as micro-finance and mobile

phone financial transactions.

37. China, India, Brazil and Russia as technological powers - China, India and Russia regain their age-old status as

technological powers. Foreign companies no longer hesitate to transfer research centers to these countries that have a long

tradition of excellence in science and innovation.

38. Retirement age increases - The pension systems in Europe and Japan are increasingly at risk. One-third of the population

is now over 60 years old; 10% is older than 80! Retirement gets closer to 70 and fluctuates depending on the industry

sector and the hardship of work. Some white-collar pension systems now have to deal with an increasing number of

centenarians. The financial crisis has reduced accumulated wealth and employees are forced to retire later.

39. Society capitalism After a period of enterprise capitalism aimed at shareholder value, and one of state capitalism

based on local value, a period emerges focusing on society capitalism which redefines the role of enterprises as actors

to solve wider societal issues such as the environment, sustainable development, poverty, etc.

42. Remoteness becomes irrelevant - The disappearance of most trade and investment barriers, the efficiency of the

international logistics system (roads, shipping, trains and air freight) and the pervasiveness of communications technology

give every single nation and enterprise instant access to world markets and unlimited opportunities.

43. The technological divide disappears - The technological divide disappears because of the development of a worldwide

communications infrastructure and the proliferation of cheap technological products for the poor.

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