14.13 spring 2020 lecture 21: poverty through the lens of

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Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References Psychology and Economics 1 14.13 Lectures 21: Poverty through the lens of psychology Frank Schilbach MIT May 4, 2020 1 Some of these slides are based on notes by Sendhil Mullainathan. I would like to thank him, without implicating him in any way, for sharing his materials with me. 1/ 53

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Page 1: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Psychology and Economics1

14.13 Lectures 21: Poverty through the lens of psychology

Frank Schilbach

MIT

May 4, 2020

1Some of these slides are based on notes by Sendhil Mullainathan. I would like to thank him, without implicating him in any way, for sharing his materials with me.

1 / 53

Page 2: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Plan for lectures today

• Overview of psychology of poverty

• Scarcity (Mani et al., 2013)

• Poverty entails many other deprivations (Schilbach et al., 2016)

2 / 53

Page 3: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

(Seemingly) sub-optimal behaviors among the poor

• Investment/saving

• Credit

• Parenting

• Productivity

• Punctuality

• Medical adherence

• Food and drug consumption

• . . . 3 / 53

Page 4: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

What explains these behaviors? • Environmental conditions

• Transportation • Predatory lending • Institutional structure (defaults) • . . .

• Selection/omitted variables

• Education • Intelligence • Effort • Mistakes • . . .

• Treatment effect of poverty

• Poverty itself causes these behaviors.

4 / 53

Page 5: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

A ‘behavioral’ poverty trap?

• Broad line of argument:

• Poverty affects cognition, decision-making, and productivity. • These factors in turn influence future poverty. • This makes it difficult if not impossible for a poor person to get rich.

• Today: two broad lines of research:

(I) Scarcity: Mullainathan and Shafir (2013)

• Monetary concerns capture cognitive function.

(II) Other poverty-induced deprivations and behaviors

• Pain, sleep deprivation, stress, excessive drinking, heat, noise, pollution • Mental health: stress, depression, (lack of) hope, aspirations

5 / 53

Page 6: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

A test

• Let’s do a memory test.

• I’ll read you a list of word.

• Do not take notes while I read the list!

• Once I am done, write down as many words as you remember.

6 / 53

Page 7: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Which words do you remember? • Bed • Rest • Dream • Doze • Snore • Slumber • Sleep • Blanket • Snooze • Wake • Nap • Awake • Tired

7 / 53

Page 8: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

False memories

8 / 53

Page 9: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

False memories

rest

9 / 53

Page 10: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

False memories

rest awake

10 / 53

Page 11: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

False memories

rest

slumber

awake

11 / 53

Page 12: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

False memories

rest

snooze

slumber

awake

12 / 53

Page 13: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

False memories

bed

rest

tired

dream

wake

snooze

blanket

doze

slumber

awake

snore

nap

13 / 53

Page 14: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

False memories

bed

rest

tired

dream

wake

snooze

blanket

doze

slumber

awake

snore

naplady

male

strong

woman

beard

handsome

muscle

doze

father

uncle

person

son

14 / 53

Page 15: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

False memories

bed

rest

tired

dream

wake

snooze

blanket

doze

slumber

awake

SLEEP

snore

naplady

male

strong

woman

beard

handsome

muscle

doze

father

uncle

MAN

person

son

15 / 53

Page 16: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

False memories

bed

rest

tired

dream

wake

snooze

blanket

doze

slumber

awake

SLEEP

snore

naplady

male

strong

woman

beard

handsome

muscle

doze

father

uncle

MAN

person

son

16 / 53

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Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Motivating study 1: False memories: rich vs. poor

17 / 53

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Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Motivating study 1: False memories: rich vs. poor

pay

rent

cash

dollar

coin

utilities

grocery

gas

expense

loan

bills

phone

18 / 53

Page 19: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Motivating study 1: False memories: rich vs. poor

pay

rent

cash

dollar

coin

utilities

grocery

gas

expense

loan

MONEY

bills

phone

19 / 53

Page 20: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Motivating study 1: False memories: rich vs. poor

pay

rent

cash

dollar

coin

utilities

grocery

gas

expense

loan

MONEY

bills

phonelady

male

strong

woman

beard

handsome

muscle

doze

father

uncle

MAN

person

son

20 / 53

Page 21: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Motivating study 1: False memories: rich vs. poor

pay

rent

cash

dollar

coin

utilities

grocery

gas

expense

loan

MONEY

bills

phonelady

male

strong

woman

beard

handsome

muscle

doze

father

uncle

MAN

person

son

0

0.045

0.09

0.135

0.18

Man Money

Low IncomeHigh Income

N = 12521 / 53

Page 22: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Motivating study 2: A doctor’s visit

Imagine  that  you  have  been  feeling  sick  lately  and  finally  decide  to  go  see  a  doctor  about  it…The  doctor  explains  that  you  have  a  serious  condition  that  requires  immediate  attention.  The  good  news,  however,  is…you  are  virtually  guaranteed  to  make  a  full  recovery...The  doctor  writes  several  prescriptions…You  will  also  need  to  make  several  appointments…What  would  be  on  your  mind  or  how  would  you  feel  as  you  hear  this  news…  What  are  three  things  you  would  think  about  or  feel?  

22 / 53

Page 23: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Motivating study 2: A doctor’s visit

Imagine  that  you  have  been  feeling  sick  lately  and  finally  decide  to  go  see  a  doctor  about  it…The  doctor  explains  that  you  have  a  serious  condition  that  requires  immediate  attention.  The  good  news,  however,  is…you  are  virtually  guaranteed  to  make  a  full  recovery...The  doctor  writes  several  prescriptions…You  will  also  need  to  make  several  appointments…What  would  be  on  your  mind  or  how  would  you  feel  as  you  hear  this  news…  What  are  three  things  you  would  think  about  or  feel?  

“wife      son        coworker”

23 / 53

Page 24: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Motivating study 2: A doctor’s visit

Imagine  that  you  have  been  feeling  sick  lately  and  finally  decide  to  go  see  a  doctor  about  it…The  doctor  explains  that  you  have  a  serious  condition  that  requires  immediate  attention.  The  good  news,  however,  is…you  are  virtually  guaranteed  to  make  a  full  recovery...The  doctor  writes  several  prescriptions…You  will  also  need  to  make  several  appointments…What  would  be  on  your  mind  or  how  would  you  feel  as  you  hear  this  news…  What  are  three  things  you  would  think  about  or  feel?  

“wife      son        coworker”

“scared      afraid        worried”

“relief      hope      joy”

24 / 53

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Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Motivating study 2: A doctor’s visit

Imagine  that  you  have  been  feeling  sick  lately  and  finally  decide  to  go  see  a  doctor  about  it…The  doctor  explains  that  you  have  a  serious  condition  that  requires  immediate  attention.  The  good  news,  however,  is…you  are  virtually  guaranteed  to  make  a  full  recovery...The  doctor  writes  several  prescriptions…You  will  also  need  to  make  several  appointments…What  would  be  on  your  mind  or  how  would  you  feel  as  you  hear  this  news…  What  are  three  things  you  would  think  about  or  feel?  

“wife      son        coworker”

“scared      afraid        worried”

“relief      hope      joy”“cost      family      work”

25 / 53

Page 26: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Motivating study 2: A doctor’s visit

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

Low Income High Income

Proportion  mentioning  money-­‐related  thoughts

N = 19826 / 53

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Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Motivating study 3: Travel for a sale

Imagine that you are about to purchase an iPad for $500. The salesman tells you that you can get the exact same good in a nearby location for $15 off. You would need to walk for 30 minutes in total. Would you go to the other store?

Imagine that you are about to purchase an iPad case for $30. The salesman tells you that you can get the exact same good in a nearby location for $15 off. You would need to walk for 30 minutes in total. Would you go to the other store?

27 / 53

Page 28: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

How much are 30 minutes of walking worth?

0.2

.4.6

.8F

raction o

f stu

dents

iPad iPad case

Fraction choosing to go walk for 30 minutes for $15

• Studies found this effect in many settings, but not (or less so) with the poor.

28 / 53

Page 29: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Summary

• Thoughts about money capture the poor’s minds (studies 1 and 2).

• The extra focus on money has some positive consequences (study 3)

• What are the negative implications?

29 / 53

Page 30: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Mullainathan and Shafir (2013): scarcity

• Scarcity: not having enough of something2

• Money, time, friends, hair, etc.

• Scarcity captures mental cognitive capacity (‘bandwidth’).

• Happens automatically • Not intentional

• Poverty makes monetary concerns top of mind.

• Implies that the poor act more rational in financial choices • Greater focus and improved decision making (Shah et al., 2015)

• But overall cognitive capacity is limited.

• Scarcity deteriorates performance at other cognitive tasks.

2See a more eloquent version by Sendhil Mullainathan HERE 30 / 53

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Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Scarcity top of mind Scarcity top of mind

Kids Doing Well?

Rent

Eat Healthy

Car Payment

UtilityBill

MarginalUtlility

Scarcity ×

×

××

31 / 53

Page 32: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Scarcity top of mind Scarcity top of mindKids Doing

Well?

Rent

Eat Healthy

Car Payment

UtilityBill

MarginalUtlility

Scarcity ×

×

××

Less Bandwidth

32 / 53

Page 34: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Design

• Four ‘lab’ experiments with shoppers at a New Jersey mall

• Diverse income range

• Median household income at roughly $70,000 • Lowest income roughly $20,000

• Sequence of events

(1) Ask hypothetical questions involving money (hard or easy) (2) Conduct cognitive (non-verbal) tests

• Fluid intelligence (Raven’s Matrices) • Cognitive control (Hearts and Flowers)

(3) Answer hypothetical questions

34 / 53

Page 35: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Timeline

Hypothe)cal  Ques)on  

Ravens/Execu)ve  Func)on  

Answer  Hypothe)cal  Ques)on  

“Your  car  is  having  some  trouble  and  requires  $X  to  be  fixed.  You  can  pay  in  full,  take  a  loan,  or  take  a  chance  and  forego  the  service  at  the  moment...  How  would  you  go  about  making  this  decision?”  

Hard  (1500  to  fix)    or  Easy  (150  to  fix)    

35 / 53

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Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

The poor do worse after ‘hard’ task.

Poverty Impedes Cognitive FunctionAnandi Mani,1 Sendhil Mullainathan,2* Eldar Shafir,3* Jiaying Zhao4

The poor often behave in less capable ways, which can further perpetuate poverty. We hypothesizethat poverty directly impedes cognitive function and present two studies that test this hypothesis.First, we experimentally induced thoughts about finances and found that this reduces cognitiveperformance among poor but not in well-off participants. Second, we examined the cognitive functionof farmers over the planting cycle. We found that the same farmer shows diminished cognitiveperformance before harvest, when poor, as compared with after harvest, when rich. This cannot beexplained by differences in time available, nutrition, or work effort. Nor can it be explained withstress: Although farmers do show more stress before harvest, that does not account for diminishedcognitive performance. Instead, it appears that poverty itself reduces cognitive capacity. We suggestthat this is because poverty-related concerns consume mental resources, leaving less for other tasks.These data provide a previously unexamined perspective and help explain a spectrum of behaviorsamong the poor. We discuss some implications for poverty policy.

Avariety of studies point to a correlationbetween poverty and counterproductivebehavior. The poor use less preventive

health care (1), fail to adhere to drug regimens (2),are tardier and less likely to keep appointments(3, 4), are less productive workers (5), less atten-tive parents (6), and worse managers of theirfinances (7–9). These behaviors are troubling intheir own right, but they are particularly troublingbecause they can further deepen poverty. Someexplanations of this correlation focus on theenvironmental conditions of poverty. Predatorylenders in poor areas, for example,may create high-interest-rate borrowing, and unreliable transpor-tation can cause tardiness and absenteeism. Moregenerally, poverty may leave less room for errorso that the “same”mistake can lead to worse out-comes (10, 11). Other explanations focus on thecharacteristics of the poor themselves. Lower lev-els of formal education, for example, may createmisunderstandings about contract terms, and lessparental attention may influence the next gen-eration’s parenting style.

We propose a different kind of explanation,which focuses on the mental processes requiredby poverty. The poor must manage sporadic in-come, juggle expenses, and make difficult trade-offs. Even when not actually making a financialdecision, these preoccupations can be present anddistracting. The human cognitive system has lim-ited capacity (12–15). Preoccupations with press-ing budgetary concerns leave fewer cognitiveresources available to guide choice and action.Just as an air traffic controller focusing on a po-

tential collision course is prone to neglect otherplanes in the air, the poor, when attending tomonetary concerns, lose their capacity to giveother problems their full consideration.

This suggests a causal, not merely correla-tional, relationship between poverty and mentalfunction. We tested this using two very differentbut complementary designs (16, 17). The first is alaboratory study: We induced richer and poorerparticipants to think about everyday financial de-mands. We hypothesized that for the rich, theserun-of-the-mill financial snags are of little con-sequence. For the poor, however, these demandscan trigger persistent and distracting concerns(18, 19). The laboratory study is designed to showthat similarly sized financial challenges can havedifferent cognitive impacts on the poor and therich. But, the study cannot fully capture our hy-pothesis that in the world, the poor face morechallenging demands. In principle, the cognitiveimpact in situ may be different given that thescale of the problems can vary between the richand the poor. Perhaps the rich in the world face

larger monetary problems that also cause greaterload. Perhaps the poor manage to restructure theirlives so that they do not face as many cognitivelychallenging problems. Put simply, the laboratorystudy, although illustrating the mechanism, doesnot show its relevance in natural settings.

Our second study takes a different approachand allows us to assess what happens when in-come varies naturally.We conducted a field studythat used quasi-experimental variation in actualwealth. Indian sugarcane farmers receive incomeannually at harvest time and find it hard to smooththeir consumption (20). As a result, they experi-ence cycles of poverty—poor before harvest andricher after. This allows us to compare cognitive ca-pacity for the same farmerwhen poor (pre-harvest)versus richer (post-harvest). Because harvest datesare distributed arbitrarily across farmers, we canfurther control for calendar effects. In this study,we did not experimentally induce financial con-cerns; we relied on whatever concerns occurrednaturally. We were careful to control for other pos-sible changes, such as nutrition and work effort.Additionally, we accounted for the impact of stress.Any effect on cognitive performance then observedwould thus illustrate a causal relationship betweenactual income and cognitive function in situ. Assuch, the two studies are highly complementary.The laboratory study has a great deal of internalvalidity and illustrates our proposed mechanism,whereas the field study boosts the external valid-ity of the laboratory study.

We note two observations about these studies.First, they sidestep the discussion on whether pov-erty is best defined in absolute or relative terms(21). Because our hypothesis is about how mon-etary concerns tax the cognitive system, we de-fine poverty broadly as the gap between one’sneeds and the resources available to fulfill them.Because this is based on subjective needs, it en-compasses low-income individuals both in the de-veloping and the developed world as well as thoseexperiencing sharp transitory income shocks, such

RESEARCHARTICLE

1Department of Economics, University ofWarwick, Coventry CV47AL, UK. 2Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cam-bridge, MA 02138, USA. 3Department of Psychology andWoodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs,Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA. 4Departmentof Psychology and Institute for Resources, Environment andSustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BritishColumbia V6T 1Z4, Canada.

*Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected](S.M.); [email protected] (E.S.)

Acc

ura

cy

Raven’s Matrices

***

Acc

ura

cy

Cognitive Control

*****

Fig. 1. Accuracy on the Raven’s matrices and the cognitive control tasks in the hard and easyconditions, for the poor and the rich participants in experiment 1. (Left) Performance on theRaven’s Matrices task. (Right) Performance on the cognitive control task. Error bars reflect T1 SEM. Tophorizontal bars show two-way interaction (poor versus rich × hard versus easy). *P < 0.05, **P < 0.01,***P < 0.001

30 AUGUST 2013 VOL 341 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org976

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© American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see https://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/

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Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Poverty impedes cognitive function II: harvest study

Image by Paul Mannix on flickr. CC BY. 37 / 53

Page 38: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Design

• Why do another study?

• External validity concerns • How do we interpret the magnitudes? Do the effects persist after repeated exposure?

• Sample

• 464 sugarcane farmers living in 54 villages in Tamil Nadu • Small-scale farmers earn at least 60% of income from sugarcane • Harvest staggered over 3- to 5-month period set by sugar mills (capacity constraints).

• Expenditure cycles: Sugarcane harvest cycle takes 18 months.

• Farmers are relatively poor pre-harvest.

• Comparison of cognitive performance pre- vs. post-harvest

38 / 53

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Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Farmers’ financial situation is worse pre-harvest.

© American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see https://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/ 39 / 53

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Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Farmers’ cognitive performance is worse pre-harvest.

© American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see https://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/

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Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Confounds?

• Calorie consumption

• Only small difference in food expenditures in pilot study (2009) • Rs. 2,663 a month on food pre-harvest vs. Rs. 2,592 post-harvest

• Anxiety over uncertainty of harvest size

• Similar results for post-harvest, pre-payment sample (see next slide)

• Labor effort

• Similar results for post-harvest, pre-payment sample (see next slide)

• Learning effects

• Hold-out sample takes cognitive tests for first time post-harvest. • Don’t perform worse than people who do tasks for the second time • Seems underpowered.

41 / 53

Page 42: 14.13 Spring 2020 Lecture 21: Poverty through the Lens of

Introduction Overview Scarcity Other aspects of poverty References

Post-harvest, pre-payment sample

concerns. To address these issues, we conductedthe field study.

The Field StudiesOur second study examined 464 sugarcanefarmers living in 54 villages in the sugarcane-growing areas around the districts of Villupuramand Tiruvannamalai in Tamil Nadu, India. Thesewere a random sample of small farmers (withland plots of between 1.5 and 3 acres) who earnedat least 60% of their income from sugarcaneand were interviewed twice—before and afterharvest—over a 4-month period in 2010. Therewere occasional nonresponses, but all of our pre-post comparisons include only farmers we sur-veyed twice.

A challenge with pre-post comparisons is cal-endar effects: Differences between months (suchas a festival or the weather) can create a spuriouscorrelation. We overcame this through a partic-ular feature of this context: Farmers’ harvest (andplanting) dates are staggered over a 3- to 5-monthperiod being set by sugar mills with processing ca-pacity constraints. One farmer may harvest, for ex-ample, in June,whereas another harvests inAugust.The same month then is pre-harvest for somefarmers and post-harvest for others. This featureallows us to control for calendar effects.

Our data show that farmers indeed facedgreater financial pressures pre- as compared withpost-harvest: They pawned items at a higher rate(78 versus 4%, P < 0.001, n = 462 participants)and were more likely to have loans (99 versus13%, P < 0.001, n = 461 participants). On aver-age, farmers had 1.97 more loans before harvestthan they did after it. They were also more likelyto answer “Yes” to the question, “Did you havetrouble copingwith ordinary bills in the last fifteendays?” before harvest than after (1.62 and 1.76,respectively, on a 3-point scale, where 1 corre-sponded to low ability and 3 to high ability to cope;P < 0.001, n = 462 participants). (Regressionsadjusted to take out farmer and month fixed ef-fects are shown in Table 1, panel A.)

We again used Raven’s to gauge fluid intel-ligence. For cognitive control, we could not ad-minister the spatial incompatibility task in the

field. Instead, we used a numeric version of thetraditional Stroop task, which is appropriate forparticipants with low literacy rates. In a typicaltrial, participants would see “5 5 5” and have toquickly respond “3,” which is the number of 5sin the sequence, rather than “5” that comes tomind most naturally. Both response speed anderror rates were recorded. Each participant per-formed 75 trials on the numerical Stroop.

Pre- and post-harvest differences on both testswere pronounced and are illustrated in Fig. 4. OnRaven’s, the farmers scored an average of 5.45items correct post-harvest but only 4.35 itemscorrect pre-harvest (P < 0.001, n = 460 partic-ipants). On Stroop, they took an average of 131 sto respond to all items post-harvest, as comparedwith 146 s pre-harvest (P < .001, n = 452). Inaddition, the average number of errors the farm-ers committed was higher before harvest thanafter (5.93 versus 5.16 errors; P < .001, n = 453).

We also report results of regressions that con-trol for farmer and month fixed effects (Table 1,panel B). Each cell in Table 1 is a distinct re-gression. Table 1, column 1 shows that even afterregression adjustment, strong pre-post harvestdifferences remain for both Raven’s and Stroopperformance. In addition to these pre-post differ-ences, we found that farmers’ perceived intensityof how financially constrained they are—as cap-tured by how they rate their ability to cope withordinary bills in the preceding 15-day period—correlates negatively with performance on Raven’sand time taken on Stroop tests (table S2).

Other factors besides income that vary pre-and post-harvest could drive these effects. Onemajor candidate is physical exertion; preparingthe land for harvest might involve increasedphysical labor. Another candidate is anxiety overcrop yield; farmers might be preoccupied not withmaking ends meet but with how much they willearn. In practice, neither is likely to be true in thecase of sugarcane farming. Farmers typically useexternal labor on their lands, and sugarcane cropsize can be readily estimated months before har-vest. Still, to address this further we observe thatthere is a several-week delay between physicalharvest and the actual receipt of payment. Finan-

cial burdens are only relieved at the time of pay-ment, but labor and anxiety over crop size arefully resolved at the time of harvest. For 316farmers in our sample, the “pre-harvest” surveywasactually post–physical harvest but pre-payment.We reestimated our equation on this subsample asshown in Table 1, column 2, and found highly sim-ilar results, which suggests that neither physicalexertion nor anxiety pre-harvest drives our results.

Training effects present another potential con-found; post-harvest farmers may do better simplybecause they are taking the test a second time. Toaddress this, we held back 100 randomly selectedfarmers at the time of initial sampling. Thesefarmers were surveyed for the first time post-harvest, and their scores were compared withthe post-harvest scores of the original sample. Ifour results were due to learning, we would expectthese novice farmers to do worse. Instead, wefound that they performed similarly on Raven’saccuracy and Stroop reaction time (table S3), sug-gesting no training effect. There is some evidencefor training effects on Stroop error rates (table S3),but the overall pattern cannot be attributed tosimple test familiarity. Taken together, the twosets of studies—in the New Jersey mall and theIndian fields—illustrate how challenging finan-cial conditions, which are endemic to poverty, canresult in diminished cognitive capacity.

We have argued that the attentional demandscreated by poverty are a plausible mechanism(29). But there could be other mediating factors.Nutrition is one candidate—in the harvest find-ings, if not in the mall study; farmers may eat lesswhen poor. In 2009, we ran a pilot study withthe same design in the districts of Thanjavur,Thiruvarur, Perambalur, and Pudokottai in TamilNadu, in which we surveyed 188 farmers andalso asked about food consumption. We foundsimilar effects on Stroop (1.47 errors post-harvestversus 2.12 errors pre-harvest; P = 0.006 via ttest, n = 111 participants). Pre-harvest farmerswere not eating less; they spent 2663 rupees amonth on food pre-harvest and 2592 rupees post-harvest (roughly $53 and $52, respectively, notaccounting for purchasing power parity). Addi-tionally, the Stroop results persist even in regres-sions in which food consumption is included as acontrol variable.

A potential explanation of these findings isstress. Financial concerns could reasonably in-duce stress in pre-harvest farmers. Indeed, we ex-amined biological stress. In the 2009 study, wecollected two biomarkers of stress: heart rate andblood pressure. Both measures showed that thefarmers were more stressed before the harvest;heart rate was higher pre-harvest than post-harvest (78.42 versus 76.38; P = 0.088 via t test,n = 188 participants), and so were diastolic bloodpressure (78.70 versus 74.26, P < 0.001 via t test,n = 188) and systolic blood pressure (128.64 ver-sus 121.56, P < 0.001 via t test, n = 188).

However, these differences in stress do notexplain our findings. When we reestimated the im-pact of harvest on Stroop performance, controlling

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Fig. 4. Accuracy on the Raven’s matrices and the cognitive control tasks for pre-harvest andpost-harvest farmers in the field study. (Left) Performance on Raven’s matrices task. (Middle andRight) Stroop task (measuring cognitive control) response times (RT) and error rates, respectively;error bars reflect T1 SEM. Top horizontal bars show test for main effect of pre- versus post-harvest(***P < 0.001).

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• Post-harvest, pre-payment sample • These farmers have harvested (and exerted labor effort). • They also know harvest size (and therefore approximate payment).

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Follow-up work

• Carvalho et al. (2015)

• Cognition & decision-making of US households around paydays • No cognitive effects whatsoever • External validity issue?

• Lichand and Mani (2020)

• Application to drought insurance • Potential additional value of insurance • Reduced worries about money ex ante, in all states of the world

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Do these cognitive effects translate into future poverty?

• Kaur, Mullainathan, Oh, Schilbach (2019)

• Does scarcity affect economic decisions? Does scarcity affect productivity?

• Randomized field experiment with workers in Odisha. Two treatments:

(1) Variation in payments (some people paid earlier than others) (2) ‘Salience’ intervention similar to Mani et al. (2013)

• Main finding:

• Receiving early payment makes workers more productive • Largest impacts for the poorest workers

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Can cash transfers unlock a poverty trap?

• Scarcity results suggest potentially high returns to (un)conditional cash transfers.

• Giving money to the poor might have additional benefit of enhancing their cognition. • Possibility of self-sustaining virtuous cycles due to one-time transfer

• Banerjee et al. (2015): ultra-poor program leads to large sustained increases in assets, savings, consumption, etc.

• Effects larger than one would expect from investment of return of the asset by itself • Did the intervention unlock a poverty trap? • Possible channels: reduced scarcity and stress, improved mental health

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Other poverty-induced deprivations

• Poverty entails other deprivations beyond money, including:

• Malnutrition • Higher levels of stress • Sleep deprivation • Noise and environmental pollution; heat • Stigma, social exclusion • Substance abuse • Mental ill-health

• Research in other fields often establish the impact of each of these deprivations on health and cognitive function (Dean et al. 2018)

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Poor Sleep

Image by Rajiv Ashrafi on flickr. CC BY-NC-SA

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Bessone et al. (2020)

(1) Objectively measure sleep quantity and quality in Chennai

• Document severe sleep deprivation and alarmingly low quality of sleep

(2) Evaluate interventions to increase sleep

• Night-sleep treatments: Providing information, sleep devices (+ incentives) increases night-sleep quantity by 20 (33) minutes per night, but does not improve quality

• Nap treatment: Offering naps at the office increases sleep quantity and quality

(3) What are the impacts of increasing sleep?

• Night-sleep treatments: No effects on productivity, cognition, well-being, preferences. Decreases in labor supply.

• Nap treatment: Increases in productivity, attention, well-being, patience • Evidence that marginal benefits of sleep depend on sleep quality

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Ridley et al. 2020: Poverty and common mental disorders.

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What’s next?

• Wednesday (May 6): Happiness and mental health

• Please read Kahneman and Deaton (2010)

• Monday (May 11): Policy with behavioral agents

• Please read Thaler and Sunstein (2003)

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Guest lecture on happiness and mental health (May 6)

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References used in this lecture I

Banerjee, Abhijit, Nathanael Goldberg, Dean Karlan, Pariente William Osei Robert, Jeremy Shapiro, Bram Thuysbaert, and Christopher Udry, “A Multi-faceted Program Causes Lasting Progress for the Very Poor: Evidence from Six Countries,” Science, 2015, 348 (6236), 772–788.

Barnes, Christopher M., John Schaubroeck, Megan Huth, and Sonia Ghumman, “Lack of Sleep and Unethical Conduct,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2011, 115, 169–180.

Carvalho, Leandro, Stephan Meier, and Stephanie W. Wang, “Poverty and Economic Decision-Making: Evidence from Changes in Financial Resources at Payday,” American Economic Review, 2015, forthcoming.

Diamond, Adele, “Executive Functions,” Annual Review of Psychology, 2013, 64, 135–168.

Mani, Anandi, Sendhil Mullainathan, Eldar Shafir, and Jiaying Zhao, “Poverty Impedes Cognitive Function,” Science, 2013, 341 (6149), 976–980.

Mullainathan, Sendhil and Eldar Shafir, Scarcity: Why Having Too Little Means So Much, Time Books, Henry Holt and Co. LLC, 2013.

Muraven, Mark and Roy F. Baumeister, “Self-Regulation and Depletion of Limited Resources: Does Self-Control Resemble a Muscle?,” Psychological Bulletin, 2000, 126 (2), 247–259.

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References used in this lecture II

Schilbach, Frank, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Heather Schofield, “The Psychological Lives of the Poor,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 2016, 106 (5), 435–440.

Shah, Anuj, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Eldar Shafir, “Scarcity Frames Value,” Psychological Science, 2015, 26 (4), 402–412.

Spaeth, Andrea, David F. Dinges, and Namni Goel, “Effects of Experimental Sleep Restriction on Weight Gain, Caloric Intake, and Meal Timing in Healthy Adults,” Sleep, 2013, 36 (7), 981–990.

Van Dongen, Hans P.A., Greg Maislin, Janet Mullington, and David F. Dinges, “The Cumulative Cost of Additional Wakefulness: Dose-Response Effects on Neurobehavioral Functions and Sleep Physiology From Chronic Sleep Restriction and Total Sleep Deprivation,” Sleep, 2003, 26 (2), 117–126.

Wagner, David T., Christopher M. Barnes, Vivien K.G. Lim, and D. Lance Ferris, “Lost Sleep and Cyberloafing: Evidence From the Laboratory and a Daylight Saving Time Quasi-Experiment,” Journal of Applied Psychology, 2012, 97 (5), 1068–1076.

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