1.5 insights into public expectations

Excellence in Policing Conference - Insights into Public Expectations | September 2016

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

1

September 2016

Insights into Public Expectations

Ashley Ames and Joe Hitchcock

2Excellence in Policing Conference - Insights into Public Expectations | September 2016

1. He’s a researcher, will have loads of slides and nothing worthwhile to say. I’ll try to catch up on emails. Can’t wait for lunch.

2. I’m a massive fan of Ipsos MORI and research generally. Been looking forward to this all week. I hope he goes on through lunch.

3. Should be ok - I’ll hopefully pick up a few nuggets which might come in helpful.


“We now expect more of government than we do of God”

Ann Widecombe

“Positive expectations are the mark of the superior personality.”

Brian Tracy


A few pointers on...

How important are expectations?

How variable are public expectations?

What drives expectations?

1

2

3

Excellence in Policing Conference - Insights into Public Expectations | September 2016 5

How important areexpectations?


A 2 second delay in transactionresults causes a 25% increasein abandonment

Source: Adventures in Retail: The other line is faster, Brand Perfect, November 2012

Can be significant consequences


The zone of tolerance Expectations matter because…

– Being wrong can mean losing business when a competitor hits the target

– Being wrong can mean expending money, time and other resources on things that don’t count

“The zone of tolerance” is the distance between desired and acceptable service – a range where “customers” are willing to accept variation in service performance

The zone depends greatly on the customer and can expand and contract depending on circumstances (e.g. being in a rush)

Narrower zone of tolerance for important parts of service and for different situations (e.g. breaking promises or service errors)


Falling short of expectations has major impact

When you had contact with your local police, overallhow satisfied or dissatisfied were you with the service or services you received from the police?

Q

91%Fully

69%Partly

36%Not at all

95%Exceeded my expectations

83%In line with what I

expected 19%Fell short of my

expectations

Thinking about what you were told would happen, to what extent did it happen?

Thinking of the most recent occasion when you had contact with your local police force, would you say the service ….

on satisfaction, though little benefit to be

Base: All respondents interviewed in England and Wales who have had police contact in the past 12 months (8,089); All respondents who were told what to expect during their most recent contact with the police (4,166) fieldwork 15 July – 6 August 2015

gained in exceeding them

% satisfied with service received from police

2015


Similar impact on overall views of local

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following in your local area?... Local policing

Q

73%Fully

55%Partly

35%Not at all

77%Exceeded my expectations

63%In line with what I

expected 27%Fell short of my

expectations

Thinking about what you were told would happen, to what extent did it happen?

Thinking of the most recent occasion when you had contact with your local police force, would you say the service ….

Base: All respondents interviewed in England and Wales who have had police contact in the past 12 months (8,089); All respondents who were told what to expect during their most recent contact with the police (4,166) fieldwork 15 July – 6 August 2015

policing

% satisfied with local policing

2015


But is worse not to provide any expectation

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following in your local area?... Local policing

Q

Base: All respondents interviewed in England and Wales who have had police contact in the past 12 months (8,089); fieldwork 15 July – 6 August 2015

When you had contact with your local police, overallhow satisfied or dissatisfied were you with the service or services you received from the police?

Q

% satisfied with service received from police

Of those who were not told what to expect only ….

% satisfied with local policing

2015

vs 36% of those who were told what would happen but it did not

vs 35% of those who were told what would happen but it did not


Many will not have any (strong)

18%

31%

27%

39%51%of people have done nothing in the past 12 months to find out about their local police

don’t know which words they would use to describe how they view the police in their area

have no overall opinion about their local police

of people have not spoken with their family or friends about issues relating to the local police in the last year

are neither satisfied nor dissatisfied with their local police

pre-determined expectations

Base: All respondents interviewed in England and Wales (26,057) ; fieldwork 15 July – 6 August 2015 2015


How variable areexpectations?


Overall trust in police has remained

61%68%

0

20

40

60

80

100

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Base: c. 1,000 British adults aged 15+ per year

Now I will read you a list of different types of people. For each would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?

% the police: trust to tell the truth

Q

pretty stable over time


And retained mid-top position

0

20

40

60

80

100

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Base: c. 1,000 British adults aged 15+ per year

Now I will read you a list of different types of people. For each would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?

% trust to tell the truth

Q

Politicians generally

Journalists

Pollsters

Civil servants

PoliceOrdinary Man/ Woman in the street

TeachersDoctors


But there are Generational shifts happening.

33

41

67

81

53

47

43

21

9

32

Generation Y (18-35)

Generation X (36-49)

Baby Boomers (50-69)

Pre-war generation (70+)

Total

Better Worse

To what extent, if at all, do you feel that your generation will have had a better or worse life than your parents’ generation, or will it have been the same?

Q

Base 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th -16th February 2016

We are becoming increasingly pessimisticre. life expectations


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65)Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)

How much do you agree or disagree that … the creation of the welfare state is one of Britain's proudest achievements.

% “Agree”

Q

All data points represent > 200 responses Source: British Social Attitudes

And less attached to some concepts/institutionssuch as political parties and the welfare state


How satisfied or dissatisfied would you say you are with the way in which the National Health Service runs nowadays?

% “Satisfied”

Q

All data points represent > 200 responses Source: British Social Attitudes

Pre-1945 generation have a consistentlydifferent, more positive view of the NHS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

83 84 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10Pre War (born before 1945) Baby Boomers (born 1945-1965)Generation X (born 1966-1979) Generation Y (born 1980 onwards)


Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Government Delivery Index

Thinking about the way your area is policed over the next few years do you expect it to…?

Q

Expectations of improvements in policinghave fallen in recent years

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mar

-02

Sep-

02

Mar

-03

Sep-

03

Mar

-04

Sep-

04

Mar

-05

Sep-

05

Mar

-06

Sep-

06

Mar

-07

Sep-

07

Mar

-08

Sep-

08

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

Sep-

14

Mar

-15

15

35

Better

Worse


Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Government Delivery Index

Thinking about …. over the next few years do you expect it to…?

% get better

Q

And remain below those of other public services

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mar

-02

Oct

-02

May

-03

Dec

-03

Jul-0

4

Feb-

05

Sep-

05

Apr-

06

Nov

-06

Jun-

07

Jan-

08

Aug-

08

Mar

-09

Oct

-09

May

-10

Dec

-10

Jul-1

1

Feb-

12

Sep-

12

Apr-

13

Nov

-13

Jun-

14

Jan-

15

Aug-

15

The way your area is policed

Quality of the NHS

Public transport

Quality of Education


Vote for Brexit; Cameron resigns

Cameron becomes PM

Prioritisation may reflect where crime anddisorder issues feature on the public radar

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

May2015

May2016

May day riots Riots in England

9/11 Lowest score since March 1991 (8%)

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

% citing crime/ disorder issues in top mentions

QMurders of Rhys Jones and Garry Newlove


What drivesexpectations?


What do people want, need and

Source: What do people want, need and expect from public services? 2020 Public Services Trust at the RSA prepared by Ipsos MORI

expect from public services?People’s priorities for public services

Ensuring a good basic standard of services is available locally. Fairness is seen as importantin delivering this, but this does not preclude greater help being available for those more inneed.

More local control, personalisation and choice are seen as less vital as ends inthemselves. The public want to have more say over services in principle but in practice fewactually get involved

Accountability is seen as important in principle, both in its positive and negative senses


Zone of tolerance

Factors that influence desired and predictedservice

Lasting service intensifiers

Personal needs

Temporary service intensifiers

Perceived service intensifiers

Self -perceived service intensifiers

Situational factors

Explicit service promises

Implicit service promises

Word-of-mouth

Past experience

Predicted service

Desired service

Adequate service


6

40

15

10

6

3

26

38

43

36

33

23

11

9

14

17

12

10

5

1

5

8

6

4

22

10

16

19

26

22

23

2

5

6

13

30

7

1

2

3

4

8

Overall

At least once aweek

At least once amonth

At least onceevery 3 months

Once or twice inpast year

No interaction inpast year

% I would speak highly of my local police without being asked % I would speak highly of my local police if I were asked% I would be critical of my local police if I were asked % I would be critical of my local police without being asked% I have mixed views about the local police % I have no views about the local police% don’t know

Base: All respondents interviewed in England and Wales (26,057) ; fieldwork 15 July – 6 August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/HMIC

Thinking now about the police in your local area, which of these phrases best describes the way you would speak about them to other people?

Q

Frequency of interaction with Police Officers or PCSOs in local area over the past 12 months...

Contact and frequency of contact correlatesstrongly with advocacy towards the police

2015


Expectations driven by the type of incident

How confident are you, if at all, that the police in your local area would be effective in dealing with the following situations?

Q

71%An emergency

51%A non-emergency

59%A request for advice

or information

24%An online crime

25%An online threat

46%Provide protection during

a terrorist incidentBase: All respondents interviewed in England and Wales (16.865) ; fieldwork 11 July – 5 August 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI/HMIC

2016


Expectations vary by range of (connected) factors

How confident are you, if at all, that you could easily speak to or access police services in your local area in the following situations?

An emergency

Q


2015 70%75%

72%79%

67%

74%

69%

77%

68%87%

73%

Over 65s16-34 year olds

No contactContact

BAME

White

20% least affluent areas

20% most affluent areas

Do not feel informed about local policeFeel informed about local police

Overall


Cannot assume preferences

Almost everyone online (though notable variations)

But phone remains dominant preferred channel for range of different contact types with police (reflecting familiarity)



As far as you know, has the amount of money your local police force has available to spend changed in the past 12 months?

Q

What constraints?

612

32

50

% increased % reduced

% don’t know enough to say% stayed about the same

6

25

12

572015 2016



In the past 12 months to what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree that your local police force has made the most of the resources it has at its disposal?

Q

One in three feel their force makes the most

% agree

% disagree

% don’t know

% neither nor

34

29

11

25

57% of those who agree their force has made the most of its resources would speak highly

of them vs 9% of those who disagree

of its resources

2015


In summary


In summary Need to understand expectations if going to increase public

confidence and/or improve use of resources

Meeting expectations is essential for those contacting the police; only marginal gains to be made in exceeding them

Need to continually sense-check expectations; generations have different views which may not align with internal priorities

Don’t assume the public are on the same page re. resourcing constraints

Lack of pre-conceptions provides opportunities to shape expectations as services and perceptions evolve


For more informationAshley AmesResearch Director

[email protected]

1.5 insights into public expectations

Documents