150 years (or so) ago, everything was done by hand
TRANSCRIPT
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150 years (or so) ago, everything was done by hand
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Now it’s done by finger (tap)
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Yet…. slow growth is painful for everyone
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Source: World Bank, New York Times
The Innovation Paradox
Michael Holman
VP of Research
April 5, 2017
Agenda
Challenges to growth
Innovations to fight back
Strategies to succeed
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Agenda
Challenges to growth
Innovations to fight back
Strategies to succeed
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Productivity growth has slowed
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2014
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Total factor productivity growth, previous 10 years
Source: The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Robert Gordon
What to make of this?
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“There has been a burst of innovations recently… that we will see come to fruition in the next five to 15 years…”
- Erik Brynjolfsson, MIT Sloan
“The economic revolution of 1870 to 1970 was unique… so many of its achievements could happen only once”
- Robert Gordon, Northwestern
Demographics are poised to make things worse…
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United States
Source: http://www.populationpyramid.net, UN Population Division
This is a megatrend… companies that can address it will be poised for growth
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0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2014
Total factor productivity growth, previous 10 years
Source: The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Robert Gordon
Agenda
Challenges to growth
Innovations to fight back
Strategies to succeed
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Where to focus for opportunities ?
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-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%
TF
P G
row
th, 2
00
4-2
014
Output growth, 2004-2014*Bubble sizes indicate 2014 output
Productivity and output growth of select U.S. industries
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Where to focus for opportunities ?
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-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%
TF
P G
row
th, 2
00
4-2
014
Output growth, 2004-2014*Bubble sizes indicate 2014 output
Building and Construction
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Productivity and output growth of select U.S. industries
Building and construction: From mass production…
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… to building information modeling and advanced construction technologies…
16Source: Lux Research, “The Industrial and Digital Revolution in Building and Construction”
… to robots and, believe it or not, 3D printing
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~$10,000 – Levittown prices!(actually Levittown house ~$80k in 2017 dollars)
Where to focus for opportunities ?
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-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%
TF
P G
row
th, 2
00
4-2
014
Output growth, 2004-2014*Bubble sizes indicate 2014 output
Fabricated metal products
Chemical products
Food, Beverage and Tobacco
Petroleum and coal products
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Productivity and output growth of select U.S. industries
Manufacturing: From electrification…
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First industrial electric motors
Sources: Electrical Power in American Manufacturing, Richard Duboff; “From Shafts to Wires: Historical Perspective on Electrification,” The Journal of Economic History 43 (2), 1982, p. 347
…to sensing and connectivity…
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…to ease of integration
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Where to focus for opportunities ?
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-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%
TF
P G
row
th, 2
00
4-2
014
Output growth, 2004-2014*Bubble sizes indicate 2014 output
Ambulatory Health Care Services
Hospitals and Nursing and Residential Care Facilities
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Productivity and output growth of select U.S. industries
Health: From saving us from bad water…
23Source: Gordon; Encyclopedia of Chicago; Chlorination of Water, Joseph Race 1918
…to saving us from bad food…
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0
2
4
6
8
10
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
U.S. adult extreme obesity rates
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
U.S. adult obesity rates
% o
f ad
ult
s ag
e 20
-74
Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control
…to giving us better food
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Where to focus for opportunities ?
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-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%
TF
P G
row
th, 2
00
4-2
014
Output growth, 2004-2014*Bubble sizes indicate 2014 output
Transportation equipment
Transportation and warehousing
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Productivity and output growth of select U.S. industries
Transportation: From cars….
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… to more valuable cars…
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
Purchase price Cost of ownership savings
V2G revenues Carsharing revenues
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Extra value provided
Toyota Camry
Tesla Model 3
Source: Lux Research report “EV Price Parity: When and How 200-mile Range EVs Can Really Win on Economics”
…to self-driving and flying cars
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Agenda
Challenges to growth
Innovations to fight back
Strategies to succeed
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Why do we need a new approach?
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The future is already here – it’s just not evenly distributed yet
Leading firms are seeing productivity growth, but most others are flatlining
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Source: Andrew G Haldane, Chief Economist, Bank of England
Business model innovation can help the leaders bring laggards along
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Revenue Model
Supply Technology
Organizational Design
Application Technology
Markets
Product Product Requirements
Value chain
supplier buyers
product
moneySU
PLLIER
BUYER
SSU
PLLIER
BUYER
S
TASKORG
TASKORG
Source: Lux Research, “Business Model Innovation: Industry’s Latest Fad or a Useful Approach to Strategy?”
Bringing manufacturing analytics to the masses
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Manufacturing Energy Heavy Industry
Manufacturing lacks in adopting predictive maintenance (PdM)
Use PdM Don't use PdM 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Cost to implement
Effort to implement
Culture
Lack of knowledge
Lack of proof of value
Lack of mgmt support
Non-adopters lack know-how
Source: Lux Research, Predictive Maintenance: The Art of Uptime
“the idea was to take the expensive approaches (which often cost more than $10 million …) and make them more affordable”
Enabling adoption of distributed generation assets
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2kj
Targeting the developing world
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Conclusions
Declining productivity growth is a key megatrend affecting business opportunities and future prosperity
Technologies emerging today can help address this trend – and generate strong new business opportunities
Widespread adoption of these advances will require business model innovationas well
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Lux Research Inc. 100 Franklin Street, 8th Floor Boston, MA 02110 USA Phone: +1 617 502 5300 Fax: +1 617 502 5301 www.luxresearchinc.com
Thank you
Michael HolmanVP of [email protected]+1 646 723 0161