Climate Changethe basics and beyondThe SourcesThe IPCC and BeyondWho can you trust? IPCC U.S. Global Change Research Program (www.globalchange.gov) Other Government Organizations NOAA, EPA, NASA The Rough Guide to Climate Change (the Queen of England says so) Union of Concerned Scientists (non-profit) Al Gore well, maybe not the best sourceWHO IS THE IPCC? Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change WHO? Panel of scientists, open to all 194 member nations of UN thousands of scientists contribute, voluntary WHAT? review and assess, no original research WHEN? First Assessment Report, 1990 Most Recent: AR5, Nov. 11, 2013 Why? How?The IPCC BureauRajendra K. PachauriChairman, IndiaOgunlade DavidsonVice Chair, Sierra LeoneJeanPascalvanYperseleVice Chair, BelgiumHoesung LeeVice Chair, Republic of KoreaThomas StockerWG1 Co-chair, SwitzerlandDahe QinWG1 Co-chair, ChinaChristopher FieldWGII Co-Chair, USAVincente BarrosWGII Co-chair, ArgentinaRamon Pichs-MadrugaWGIII Co-chair, CubaOttmar EdenhoferWGIII Co-chair, GermanyYouba SokonaWGIII Co-chair, MaliThelma KrugTFB Co-chair, BrazilTaka HiraishiTFB Co-Chair, JapanMorocco Madagascar SudanIslamic Republicof IranMaldives MexicoWhy do people not like the IPCC? Several errors in last report:ex. Himalayan glaciers melting by 2035* (nope, theyre not) grey literature Peer Reviewed Literature: what is it? Transparency issues: facts and sources are, choosing the writers isnt.However, there are MANY reviewers.* (* = The Economist, Feb 6, 2010)In Summary The IPCC is.LEGITClimate Change 102The Greenhouse Effect and BeyondThe Greenhouse effect Increased atmospheric temperatures caused when atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide and methane trap heat in Earthsatmosphere.The Electro Magnetic Spectrum Sunlight = shortwave radiation Infrared (heat) = longwave radiationGreenhouse Gases Greenhouse Gases Atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide and methane that retain heat much like a greenhouse; solar energy can get in, but heat cannot easily escape.What makes a Gas BAD?We love some molecules, like N2 and O2So what makes some gases Greenhouse ones and others not?1. Size and structure of the molecule2. How long it stays in the atmosphere3. How many of them are out thereNow to the Key PlayersStructure of a MoleculeGood Molecules Bad MoleculesThe Key Players#1: Carbon Dioxide (CO2)Sources: burning of fossil fuels, decomposition of organic material, animal respiration.How Strong? CO2= BaselineHow Long? Long: Over a century (RG) How much?A LOT Jan 2010 = 388 ppm (NOAA, Mauna Loa Observatory)#2: Methane (CH4)Sources:production and transport of coal, natural gas, and oil.Also from livestock and other agricultural practices and by the decay of organic waste in landfills and natural areas. (EPA)How Strong? Absorbs 25 times more heat than a carbon dioxide during their (unequal) lifespans.How Long?Less than a decade (RG)How much?A lot less, < 2ppm (RG)CFCs and HFCs Dichlorodifluoromethane (aka CFC-12), a chlorofluorocarbon and greenhouse gas. Sources: coolants (freon), solvents in cleaners, and propellants (aerosols).However, the manufacture of these compounds is being phased out by the Montreal Protocol because they contribute to ozone depletion.How Strong?VERY!Up to 12,000 times stronger than CO2. But they also cause ozone depletion which has a cooling affect.How Long? Big Range (14-270 at least)How much?VERY scant Wikipedia, Global Warming PotentialNitrous Oxide (N20)Sources: Industrial ByproductHow Strong? VERY- 300 times CO2How Long? A centuryHow much?Teeny tiny: 300 ppb(RG)Water (Really?... Yes, Really.)Sources: EvaporationHow Strong? Not VeryHow Long? Variable: dependent on air tempHow much?A TON!Water vapor accounts for 3672% of the greenhouse affect that we see on earth.However, this is mostly not human caused.OZONE: Friend or Foe?Sources: Forms when sunlight hits pollutants or OWhens it good?High up in the stratosphere where it filters out UV radiationWhen its bad? Near ground level in the troposphere, where unhealthy levels can build up (smog), GHG. How strong? Not very??? (25% of CO2)How long? 22 days in troposphere.How much? Hard to measure, scant for GHG Whats Already HappenedAbiotic evidence of a climate changedIts Getting Hotter! Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased. . IPCC 2013 No causality nor predictions No need for likeliness indicators.It HAS happened More importantly, the RATE of warming Linear warming trend for past 50 years (0.13C/decade) is nearly double that of the past 100 yrs (1906-2005).Surface Air TemperatureOceans Land regions have warmed faster than oceans (and cool?) Global Ocean Temps , to depths of 3000m This accounts for 90% of heat added to the system since 1971 Sea Level Rise (next) Ocean Acidification Salinity changes ENSO Cycles (El Nino) Ocean Currents:Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)Sea Level Rise (IPCC 2013)Precipitation Changes Changes in the global water cycle in response to the warming over the 21st century will not be uniform. The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increaese, although there may be regional exceptions. (IPCC, 2013)Arctic Thaw and Glacial MeltingIPCC 2013 Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antartic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent (high confidence)In Conclusion(dum dum duuuuuum) A large fraction of climate change resulting from CO2 emmisions is irreversible on a multi-century to millennial time scale, except in the case of a large net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere over a sustained period. Surface temperatures will remain approximately constant at elevated levels for many centuries anfter a complete cessation of net anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Due to the long time scales of heat transfer from the ocean surface to depth, ocean warming will continue for centuries. Depending on the scenario, about 15 to 40% of emitted CO2 will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,000 years. (IPCC 2013).What do we do now?? PANIC! Nonot really. But we do have to prepare for a changing climate.Volcanoes Different types What they produce Why? How?Plate Tectonics and how they relate What types of volcanoes and where?Relation to internal Earth movementsHotspotsGSC 350Natural DisastersWhat volcanoes produce Different magma typesVolcano products and their dangers Flows Lahars OthersDifferent types of eruptionsHow to classify volcanoes (types)GSC 350Natural DisastersLandslides Forces Causes Types (4) Unique aspects of each type (diagrams)ClaysDaylighting _______ How does this lead to failure?Listen to the treesGSC 350Natural DisastersFriction and its part in landslides Overcoming forces diagramSinkholesLand Subsidence Different causesFrozen groundGSC 350Natural DisastersHurricanes Formation Characteristics Wind within the stormGlobal wind patterns The pretty diagram with all the arrows Know different zones,where they are and how they move (Lat and Long)GSC 350Natural DisastersCategorizing HurricanesHurricane damage ProductsGlobal warming terms and resultsGSC 350Natural DisastersCase studies are to be understood, but the specifics are not importantBe able to create a topographic profileRock fall runout-length calculation50 multiple choice + several short answer, diagram, definitionsGSC 350Natural DisastersBring a scantron, pencils, eraser, scratch paper, ruler, and a calculator.GSC 350Natural Disasters