18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 1

Activities & Plans 2007

Dijana Klaric Met service of Croatia

RC LACE Project Leader

18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 2

RC LACE report

Environment &

R&D highlightsR&D highlights

Operations and Common actions

Project Evaluation

Future

F,Ro,Bg,Cz,Hu,Sk,PL,A,Mc,Si,Cr,B,Pt,Tu,Al (Mo,Tk,........)--I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I----I---I----I1990 1996------------------------2002 2007

ALADIN Project

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ALADIN Project1990 ->o R&D project o Members with different

NWP ambitions

MF-LACE backbone

Structure & Budget

ALADIN Project1990 ->o R&D project o Members with different

NWP ambitions

MF-LACE backbone

Structure & Budget

LACE Project

1990 -> Operations and R&D

project Members sharing the

ambitions Romania membership

(November 2006) Central and SE Europe

LACE is a tool for ALADIN activity in C&SE E

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Regional Cooperationenvironment

Members:Au-Cr-Cz-Hu-Ro-Si-Sk

Co-operation:R&D on meso-scale NWP

Operations

Common actions

RC LACE MoU RC LACE Budget

7 NWP teamsLACE MG Project Leader,

4 Working Group Leaders,

ALADIN SC, Data Manager

MF partner

ALADIN partners

HIRLAM

SRNWP

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R&D overview

LACE Scientific Plans 2006; 2007 main input for ALADIN Scientific plans

IFS environment (spectral space):

Arpege(Global) -Aladin(Alaro10km) -Arome (2.5km)

R&D working groups:

Dynamics , Physics , Data Assimilation, Predictability

40 scientists: 7 NWP teams + visitors

25-30 pxm funds

Leading NWP results: NH Dynamics -->>>

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Dynamics and Coupling

NH ALADIN Dynamics

- core for NH ALADIN and AROME models

- tests at ECMWF ( to become the next IFS dynamics)

- Vertical finite elements (Hy, NH )

Other dynamical issues

SLHD filter

Dynamics –Physics interface

TL/AD for ALADIN SL – (4D Var tool)

18-21 Sept 2007

VFE for NH ALADIN -more accurate then Finite Differences-coded for Hy (Hortal ) and NH (Vivoda)-Stability tests (stil noisy at BC)

Results: Ref FD, 35lev , dt=5s Ref VFE, 35lev, dt=5s X-term, Z-term-FD

Ref FD, 100lev, dt=5s Ref VFE, 100lev, dt=5s(X-term, Z-term-FD)

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SLHD – Semi Lagrangian Horizontal Diffusion

- non-linear scheme

-triggered by flow field deformation

-special care to control orography triggered noise

Results: on Prognostic Physics variables

TKE over flat orog.

AROME

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Physics

System AAA

Arpege(Global) -Aladin(Alaro10km) -Arome (2.5km)

Physic packages :

ALADIN/ARPEGE - global and LAM- sharing phy.

meso-NH physics - base for AROME meso-γ model

ALARO physics - multi-scale physics for 10-5km:

New governing equ. and progn. water species

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Physics (10km->5km) ALARO transition

ALARO-0, step 1 (system) Equations and interface (loss of mass due to precipitation

is considered ); Prognostic cloud water (microphysics 5 water species); Radiation –NER formulation; Turbulence (pseudo- prognostic TKE scheme); Cloudiness issue (improved optical properties, new

saturation cloud model) ALARO-0, step 2 (multi-scale, “grey-zone”)

Sub-grib scale convection - 3MT

3MT - Microphysics and TransportMicrophysics and Transport for SGS convection for SGS convection +Multiscale +Modular =3MT

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ALARO Diagnostics

Model consistency and performance

(ALARO: more memory, less CPU – better optinimized)

DDH tool for diagnostic (IFS basic, AAA developed)

Model comparison ALARO vs ALADIN Phy

ALARO –v0: operative at CZ, Be,..... (new ALADIN)

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• MT + additional prognostic variables + cascading microphysics MT + additional prognostic variables + cascading microphysics relevant for « grey zone » relevant for « grey zone » 2MT. 2MT.

2MT: Multiscale Microphysics and Transport.2MT: Multiscale Microphysics and Transport.

7 km 4 km 2 km7 km 4 km 2 kmCas du 10/09/2005. Cumul de précipitation en 1h (mm). Source Gerard (QJRMS Cas du 10/09/2005. Cumul de précipitation en 1h (mm). Source Gerard (QJRMS

2007).2007).

2MT – What has been done – Results (J-M Piriou, Radostovice, ALARO Training and WS)2MT – What has been done – Results (J-M Piriou, Radostovice, ALARO Training and WS)

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ALARO plans 2007->

Governing equations: extension to compressible case (NH)

Pseudo-prognostic TKE-scheme: new mixing length formulation; an 'analytical' CBR interpretation within p-TKE

Gravity wave drag parametrization: re-tune for no- envelope orography 3MT: validation and tuning, sensitivity to mid-

troposphere humidity , test of convection diurnal cycle

(Team; JF Geleyn, JM Piriou, B Catry, L Gerard, R Brozkova, N Pristov,M Tudor, F Vana, J Masek, D Banciu......)

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Data Assimilation

Research focus

Ensemble B matrics 3D-FGAT –ALADIN

(transition to 4D-Var) Observations AMV, SEVIRI

Blending initialization (with surface OI –CANARI)

(team:Boloni,Kertesz, Trojakova,Majek, Randriamampianina)Randriamampianina)

ALADIN/ 3D VAR – HMS

• ∆x=12 km; 37 vertical L

• 6 hour cycle

• 3D-VAR for the upper air fields

• substitution of the surface fields by the ARPEGE ones

• B matrix: NMC method

• LBC: long cut-off ARPEGE analysis, 3 h coupling frequency

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3D FGAT - hourly SYNOPs, AIREP, SATOB

increments tests; observation window;

Results:3D FGAT vs 3DVar (all measurements)

Red- 3D FGAT better (Z,RH, U,V)

RMS

BIAS

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SEVIRI data analysis by ALADIN -3DVar

Tests:

with 2 ways for B Matrix computation: NMC vs Ensemble

diff 3D Var resolutions (12km/37L vs 8km/45L)

Tuning of obs-error statistics

Results on SEVIRI impact :

Impact be similar to ATOVS data (AMSU-A or AMSU-B) assimilated in high resolution;

Impact depending on the parameters (Rh, Z) and model levels; Negative impact near the surface needs further tests with

more surface measurements (2m T, 2m RH) -coupled with SEVIRI

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WG on Predictability

Research focus Uncertenties at initial conditionsALADIN Singular Vector (SV)Breeding, ET, ETKF, blendingBlending ARPEGE/ECMWF global perturbation and ALADIN

perturbation

Multi-physics parameterizations ( 11 mem, diff tuning, diff schem.)

Downscaling of ECMWF EPS Clustering approaches for downscaling ECMWF EPS

( ECMWF Tech. Memo.507, Jan 2007)(team: Wang, Kann, Horanyi, Bellus, Ivatek-Sahdan, Hagel,etc)

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Uncertenties at initial conditionsT-perturbations for: SV, breeding, blended

Blending:

ARPEGE/ECMWF global perturbation and ALADIN perturbation

Blended perturbations have the highest spread (red curve)

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Multi-physics option11 members, Bougeault-type, Kain-Fritsch deep convection scheme,

moisture convergence and CAPE closure in the convection scheme, Kessler-type scheme for LP,Lopez microphysics scheme

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WG on Predictability

Common tools and products

Verification package

LAEF products Down. of ECMWF EPS(16+cont, 18 km)- EPS grams- Probability charts- StampsPlanned:- Multi-physics- Blending

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2007 ALADIN-LACE-HIRLAM actions

ALARO training at Radostovice, March 2007 14 participants all LACE Members (+ MF, Be, PT, Mc + Denmark)

GLAMEPS Project at ECMWF ( HIRLAM-ALADIN-LACE EPS project)

ALADIN-HIRLAM coordination on SURFACE and DA issues

ALADIN-HIRLAM general WS at Oslo April 2007

LACE training on CANARI at Budapest, Nov 2007

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GLAMEPS “grand” EPS

Meso-scale real-time EPS >100 members

HIRLAM-ALADIN-LACE alterative of using several sub-European and less

populated ensemble systems which single NMSs could run on their own

Common: operations, product distribution and verification

Desirable set-ups : „large” domain: 22km, 37 levels, 320 x 300

points, +60h int.

Two phases Laboratory phase at ECMWF (2007-2008) Distributed production stage (2008-2009)

18-21 Sept 2007

GLAMEPS_v0- test phase

HIRLAM -66 members

ECMWF targeted singular vectors (TSV)

OT - 24h

-3 TSV domains

- 2 HIRLAM physics

- (10 memx2 mod x3dom)

ALADIN – 20 members

Downscaling of ECMWF EPS

22km/44km ALADIN lat/lon post-proc. (INM sys) Next step: ALADIN native

singular vectors (tests)

(OT =+12h, +24h)

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FDP MAP D-Phase

MAP D-phase Demonstration Project (June-Nov 2007)

- Probabilistic hydrological and meteorological simulations for heavy rains and flood events

- Contribution of LACE via Austrian team

- ALADIN/Austria for deterministic products

(∆x= 9.6km, 45 levels, dyn. adaptation)

- ALADIN LAEF probability products (24h precipitation)

(∆x= 18km, 37 levels, 16 mem +contr. from ECMWF EPS)

- Disseminated to

MAP D-Phase center

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RC LACE common actions

Centralized Verification: (Ljubljana)

Client/server system All ALADIN mod. results Tool for basic scores

(synoptic scale) Monthly reporting

procedure Portable to members

ODB activities: (Data Manager; Budapest)

ODB training ODB help-desk Interactive Obs. Monitoring

for Var DA Monthly reporting procedure QC for each station Comparison of Var DA results

Exchange of HR observations monitoring of obs network at MS

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www.rclace.eu (public and private zone)

RC LACE Operations:+72h integration, 00 (06),12, (18) UTC runs

Domain Hor.res.

Vert.res.

Physics Config.

A 300x270 9.6 45 25t2(29t2, Lopez)

e001,CANARI(INCA), LAEF

Cr 229x205 8.0 37 29t1, SHLD, new phy, mean orog.

e001, DADA,ODB

Cz 320x288 9.0 43 29t2, SLHD, new phy., mean orog.

DFI blending, CANARI, ODBe001, ALARO phy.

H 432x384 8.0 49 28t3 3DVAR, CANARI,e001, DADA

Si 258x244 9.5 37

29t2, SHLD,low cloudiness

e001, DADA

Sk 320x288 9.0 37

28t3 e001, DADA, (INCA),ODB

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RC LACE

Evaluation

Project Evaluation after 10 years of

common activities (1996-2006)

Goals:

- To provide objective view of Project

- To range a LACE to NWP objectives

- To give independent advices about future development

Input for new LACE structure 2008->

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General recommendations (Quality of Project)

Strategy and planning

(short-term, long-term; users demands) Management structure

(competence, authority) Internal/external communications

(WWW, visibility, NWP consortia) Role of NWP systems at LACE centers

(AAA models as the primary subjects)

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Recommendations for Task Sharing

Reasons: To overcome the

duplication of the operational efforts.

To suppress draining of resources on maintaining and downstream applications.

To provide small NWP centers with a complete NWP system.

Methods: Define the common tasks Agreement on Lead Centres for specific areasLead Centers: o for researcho for operations

Results: Efficient use of the available

manpower. Specialisation of the NWP

teams.

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LACE Future 2008 ->

Political decision for the closer operative cooperation (toward the Projects with operative deliverables)

Leading centers => Responsible center Bottom-up => Top-down planning

Action Plan for implementation of (Working Group) LACE 10-years strategy LACE MoU III