1989: How Revolution Happens

Comparison:Eastern Europe

ChinaArab Spring

Location: Eastern Europe

• Nations were neighbors and knew what was happening (ex: Poles, Czechs)

Lech Walesa in the early 1980’s- Solidarity would be deemed illegal and would move underground

Solidarity is legalized in 1989

Population: Eastern Europe

• Small #s of people to mobilize into revolution:

• Poland: 40 million– Solidarity 1.5 million members in 1989

• Czech: 13 million

Leaders of the Revolution: Eastern Europe

• Workers – struck fear in government leaders

• The Workers are the mainstay of the Communist Revolution (Hammer and Sickle)

Governmental Leaders: Eastern Europe

• Eastern European Communists deferred to Soviet leadership

• Gorbachev – did not send in tanks

Timeline of Revolution: Eastern Europe

• Since 1950s:– East Germany 1953– Hungary 1956– Czech 1968

Network of Communications: Eastern Europe

• Vast “underground” in each nation

• ROLE OF CATHOLIC CHURCH in Poland – plus new Pope in 1978

• Religious groups/intellectuals well established

Response by President: Eastern Europe

• “bystander”• No resources to help; tax cuts limited budget

(No neo-Marshall Plan)• Minimal aid sent• “He (Bush) managed to restrain whatever

emotion he felt as the Berlin Wall came down….He gave Lech Walesa of Poland and President Havel of Czechoslovakia a warm welcome in Washington but very little money.” (Ambrose, 366)

Location: China

• LARGELY ISOLATED from world and neighbors in 1989

• Protests in Tiananmen Square “The Gate of Heavenly Peace”

Population:

• ONE BILLION

• Scattered across huge provinces

• Many in isolated communities with little technology

• Focal point MUST be cities

Leaders of the Revolution: China

• Students in Beijing – not as intimidating to leaders

• Silly kids, should just go back to class

Governmental Leaders: China

• Deng Xiaoping – sent in the tanks • “It was embarrassing to their (China’s)

regime to have so many of their people praising a foreign leader [Gorbachev]; it was dangerous to them to have such broadly based demonstrations demanding democracy; it was humiliating to have the massive protests witnessed by the entire world” (Ambrose, 355)

Timeline of Revolution: China

• NEW….April 27-June 4 1989

Network of Communications: China

• NONE

• 1960s Cultural Revolution had killed it

Response by President: China

• “bystander”

• “On June 5, he (Bush I) suspended military sales to China and three days later said that the US and China could not reestablish normal relations until China’s leaders ‘recognize the validity of the prodemocracy movement.’ (Ambrose, 355-56)

Location: Arab Spring

• Began in Tunisia, spreads to Egypt, Libya, Syria, Bahrain, Yemen etc.

In Tunisia 26 year old, Mohamed Bouazizi, a fruit vendor, burned himself to death to protest poor economic conditions and lack of government action

Egypt’s Tahrir Square

Wael Ghonim (Google Executive who used Facebook to organize) met the mother of dead businessman Khaled Said in Tahrir Square on 8 February. He was jailed for 12 days, Google coordinated release

Population: Arab Spring

• Tunisia: 10.5 million

• Egypt: 81.1 million– 2nd Most populous in region (Pakistan 173.6

million)– 60% under the age of 30

Leaders of the Revolution: Arab Spring

• Youth Movement

• Began as a leaderless movement, but leaders emerged

• Muslim Brotherhood candidates gain popularity

Governmental Leaders: Arab Spring

• Hosni Mubarak- took over after Sadat was assassinated

• 30 year military dictatorship– 1981-2011

• Crowds dispersed with water cannons and rubber bullets, Internet shut down

• Eventually Mubarak relents and is put on trial• Military tribunal in charge until July 2012

elections

Timeline of Revolution: Arab Spring

• Egypt has been ruled by military rulers since the overthrow of the King who was backed by the British– Gained independence 1952

• Only serious threat to this autocratic rule was the assassination of Sadat in 1981

• January 14th Ben Ali leaves Tunisia• January 25th protests begin in Egypt• February 11th Mubarak Resigns

Network of Communications: Arab Spring

• Youth dominated technology

• Social networking

• Web 2.0

• Smart-phones, etc.

Response by President: Arab Spring

• Obama• “For six months, we have witnessed an

extraordinary change taking place in the Middle East and North Africa.  Square by square, town by town, country by country, the people have risen up to demand their basic human rights.  Two leaders have stepped aside.  More may follow.  And though these countries may be a great distance from our shores, we know that our own future is bound to this region by the forces of economics and security, by history and by faith” May 19, 2011

Response by President: Arab Spring

• First, we’ve asked the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to present a plan at next week’s G8 summit for what needs to be done to stabilize and modernize the economies of Tunisia and Egypt…Second, we do not want a democratic Egypt to be saddled by the debts of its past.  So we will relieve a democratic Egypt of up to $1 billion in debt, and work with our Egyptian partners to invest these resources to foster growth and entrepreneurship …Third, we’re working with Congress to create Enterprise Funds to invest in Tunisia and Egypt.  And these will be modeled on funds that supported the transitions in Eastern Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall…Fourth, the United States will launch a comprehensive Trade and Investment Partnership Initiative in the Middle East and North Africa”

Works Cited

• Ambose, Stephen E., and Douglas G. Brinkley. Rise to Globalism. New York: Penguin, 1997.Print.

• Obama, Barack. Remarks by the President on the Middle East and North Africa, 19 May 2011. Web. 22 April 2012