1992 Presidential Election

by Joyce E. Berg, John Geweke and Thomas A. Rietz

Legend

Estimated Distribution

Historical Distribution

VS Bounds

WTA Bounds

Mean of Estimated Distribtuion

Estimated P(f>0.5)Contingent Claim Cutoffs

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Republican Convention

Republican Convention

Republican Convention

Republican Convention

Perot Re-Enters Race

VP Debate

1st Presidential Debate

Debate 1

New Contingent Contracts Introduced(Bush > or < 42% of two-party vote)

2nd Presidential Debate

3rd Presidential Debate